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Robert Reich

Robert Reich

Posted: June 12, 2010 10:28 AM

Why We Are Moving Toward a Recessionary Era, and Why Keynes is Being Exhumed

What's Your Reaction:

Double-dip watch: Retail sales in May took their biggest nose-dive in eight months, according to Friday's report from the Commerce Department. Remember: Consumers account for 70 percent of the nation's economic activity.

American Corporations are sitting on huge piles of cash but they're not investing, and they're creating only a measly number of new jobs. And they won't invest and create jobs until they know there are customers out there to buy what they sell.

For three decades, starting in the late 1970s, the biggest economic problem America faced on an ongoing basis was inflation. Demand always seemed to be on the verge of outrunning the productive capacity of the nation. The Fed had to be ready to raise interest rates to stop the party, as it did on several occasions.

During this era of inflation economics, it appeared that John Maynard Keynes - and his Depression-era concern about chronically inadequate demand -- was dead. So-called "supply siders" told policy makers that if they cut taxes on corporations and the wealthy, they'd unleash a torrent of investment and innovation - thereby increasing the productive capacity of the nation. The benefits would trickle down to everyone else.

But the pendulum may now be swinging back to the earlier era in which demand always seems on the verge of trailing the nation's productive capacity. The biggest ongoing threats are chronic recession or even deflation, because consumers don't have enough money to what the economy is capable of selling at full or near-full employment. Despite gains in productivity, little has trickled down to America's middle class.

John Maynard Keynes is being exhumed because his Depression-era worry about inadequate demand is once again the nation's central economic problem.

Keynes prescribed two remedies -- both of which are now necessary: Government spending to "prime the pump" and get businesses to invest and hire once again. And, as Keynes wrote, "measures for the redistribution of incomes in a way likely to raise the propensity to consume." Translated: Instead of big tax cuts for corporations and the rich, tax cuts and income supplements for the middle class.

This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org

 
 
 
 
 
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janereally
My micro bio is empty.
12:33 PM on 07/23/2010
"And they won't invest and create jobs until they know there are customers out there to buy what they sell." Well where do customers come from if they have no jobs? Asia, that's where.

Grover Norquist has succeeded: they've starved the beast, there IS no more money to "prime the pump". Welcome to Cheneyville, I mean Potterville.
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MARYHOBE
Member of the tribe of man
05:21 PM on 06/17/2010
Robert Reich is not trumpeting wild eyed liberal economics here, he is echoing the same concerns that Bernanke gave the House 2 weeks ago. All these opinions come in response to the very real pressure to cut back on spending; the calls for cutting spending, balance the books find traction with the electorate who have constant revenues and varying expenditures. But economists realize that governments work inside a very different dynamic, and so if you want to go the Coolidge-Hoover route, well that is just fine, but don't be surprised when Global Depression is the result.
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jdcrump
Conservatism: The struggle to justify selfishness
02:16 PM on 06/17/2010
Profits and taxes. What's the difference, if any? Aren't profits just the corporate version of taxes? Can anyone recommend a good book on the subject?
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ZeraLee
A Citizen's View from Main Street
01:53 PM on 06/15/2010
I agree with Reich in principle, but there are a couple of problems.

1) The government has invested about as much as it can in infrastructure. Helping people tread water until they can find a new job is straining the budget and drawing resistance from one-dimensional conservatives.

2) Banks are not lending to small businesses the way the economy needs them to, hurting small business growth.

3) Corporations are not hiring within the American economy the way they need to. Too many middle class jobs are going overseas. Workers cannot live in the American economy and compete with third-world and developing nation economies, yet we cannot prosper as a nation without a prosperous middle class.

4) Small businesses can only go so far in replacing corporate jobs. Statistically, average salaries are proportional to the size of the company - big companies pay better. A substantial shift from big to small business would represent a reduction in current and future purchasing power - weakening the economy. Nor do small businesses lead world markets the way corporations do.

There are other problems with the economy that result from mismanagement, not failure of the model.

Our current crisis is a referendum on the state of capitalism, and so far it is getting failing marks. Fraud, negligence, corruption, and greed have done more real harm to this country than terrorism.
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MARYHOBE
Member of the tribe of man
05:30 PM on 06/17/2010
I agree with most of your points, except maybe the first one; the level of infrastructure work is nowhere near the level of saturation, just look around any urban area, it goes mainly to small and medium size contractors, are good paying jobs and just do work today that we will have to do anyways. As for the resistance, hopefully opinions from well regarded economists like Bernanke can push back the high level that we have seen lately.
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ZeraLee
A Citizen's View from Main Street
06:12 AM on 06/18/2010
We have no end of infrastructure investments left to make. Bridge repair and replacement, modernizing the rail system, a smart power grid and superconducting transmission lines to name a few.

The problem is not lack of projects, it is that we are reaching the end of what we can and should borrow. The cost of servicing the debt is becoming too high.
10:40 PM on 06/14/2010
I keep wondering if maybe we have so much cheap stuff from China that there is really nothing left to buy? I know I am driving cars longer, wanting fewer clothing articles in my closets, and living more simply. Maybe this is the end of the consumer society as we have known it.
janereally
My micro bio is empty.
12:35 PM on 07/23/2010
Yay! the planet just sighed its relief.
09:29 AM on 06/14/2010
How does priming the puimp work if theres no water in the "aquifer" ?
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coutnac
08:37 AM on 06/14/2010
Mr Bush gave a BIG TAX CUT in early 2001 and that s the problem because it was not paid
pay d for just like the 2 wars !
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jmpurser
See My micro-bio
09:04 AM on 06/14/2010
That was just the last in a series of unpaid for tax cuts that shifted the burden of paying for this nation from the rich to the middle class.

Bush just put the final nail in the coffin.
10:43 AM on 06/14/2010
Yea, the burden of that bottom 50% have of paying no federal income tax and in a lot of cases getting a refund on taxes they didn't even pay. That bottom 50% that pay nothing needs to get up to 75%. It's only fair that the top 25% of income earners pay 100% of the taxes and they better act damn happy in doing it..
10:41 AM on 06/14/2010
And the rich are going to keep getting tax cuts until we can get the rates to 100% where they need to be.
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jdcrump
Conservatism: The struggle to justify selfishness
11:39 AM on 06/17/2010
Oh, let's compromise at the rate from the Eisenhower years in the 1950's. Top rate was 91%.
06:50 AM on 06/14/2010
As long as companies refuse to hire, or hire at fair wages, as long as banks refuse to participate in mortgage modification as long as Congress continues to dither and our president shows little leadership or interest in helping the middle class recover from this recession brought about by greed. Don't buy anything that you do not need. Don't use a credit card, cancel it and send it back to the bank. We are in a stand off and it is not political it is a class struggle. The attack on the middle class started years ago and continues today. Vote with your pocket book because your ballot vote does not count. The political process in the US is broken.
10:53 AM on 06/14/2010
You sound like Tea Partier?
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12:19 PM on 06/14/2010
No, actually he seems too sensible for a label like that.
12:46 PM on 06/14/2010
Campaign Finance reform is the ONLY answer.

Changing the players without changing the system is useless. Campaign Reform would heal the split of the American people that big money has encouraged in order to weaken us and keep us fighting with each other.

Any politician HAS to play ball. Find a politician who does not take money. If he does not he will not win. He will join us little people whining about how we would do it if we were in power.

It is the fault of lying politicians, our media, and most of all our ignorant, stupid citizens whose line of thought is no longer than a bumper sticker.

Blaming this and that politician does no good. The blame lies ultimately on American citizens.

Until EVERYONE starts talking and blogging and marching for Campaign Reform we are just spinning our wheels discussing anything that might challenge the special interests. Lets fight together as Americans.

http://www.fairelectionsnow.org/volunteer/petition (FENA)
http://change-congress.org/
http://movetoamend.org/
janereally
My micro bio is empty.
12:39 PM on 07/23/2010
Yeah, oh and while you're at it, let's have proportional representation, and third parties, and... good luck with that.

campagin finance is no answer if it's not going to ever happen. Layla1 is right. "campaigns" mean nothing. Stop buying what the corporations and rich people are selling. Buy from local business, local friends, barter, use less, make it last, start a cash business - something like a fiscal general strike - that will get their attention.
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02:25 AM on 06/14/2010
"Keynes prescribed two remedies -- both of which are now necessary: Government spending to "prime the pump" and get businesses to invest and hire once again. And, as Keynes wrote, "measures for the redistribution of incomes in a way likely to raise the propensity to consume." Translated: Instead of big tax cuts for corporations and the rich, tax cuts and income supplements for the middle class."

Have you learned NOTHING? This will only lead too MORE debt DEBT DDDDEEEEEBBBBBBTTT!

You now have choice: create a NEW market around 'needs' or continue on the road to nowhere called 'wants' which we have well travelled.
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06:35 AM on 06/14/2010
Any new market created without first equitably taxing the haves is pointless and will continue the cycle we started during the Reagan era. You may still be clinging to the trickle down theory but I am sick of being trickled on. We have created lots of new markets over the last twenty plus years but everything is backwards so here we are.
04:01 PM on 06/14/2010
Government spending is good IF they are creating something useful. New Mexico created a $500M Train to Debtsville that will never EVER make money and most of the jobs are now over. And it just competes with the Bus to Debtsville.

A government loan program for American made solar panels could be a good thing, for instance.

Starting the construction of 50 or 100 nukes would certainly get things cooking.
11:14 PM on 06/13/2010
May I remind people that economic theories like those of Keynes or Supply Side are not right or wrong. They are simply understandings of the problems and offer solutions for problems.

IOW, they are tools. If you have high taxes and high regulation and businesses are being stifled, then Supply Side works. If you have low government debt and high unemployment, Keynes is an obvious solution.

We have a MAJOR problem right now, because we have a potentially fatal array of problems stacked against us.

1. The recession is world wide. Even if we fix some of our problems, it won't help if the world isn't buying our goods and keeping our trade deficit manageable.

2. We don't build anything here any more, so even if consumer spending goes up, it doesn't create many jobs.

3. High unemployment. That is not an easy fix without massive tax cuts.

4. We have high consumer debt, so we are not likely to spend if our jobs aren't secure.

5. The government has high debt, so it is not a great idea to go on a Keynesian spending binge.

6. We seem to hate immigrants for some reason yet we need them here, paying taxes and helping to keep low wage, but critical manufacturing jobs here.

7. States are screwed 6 ways to Sunday economically, so they're relying on a broke Federal government to borrow money and give it them.

8. We have *massive* entitlement liabilities both now and looming.

9. Barack Obama.
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02:27 AM on 06/14/2010
brilliant comments! I love logical people
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jmpurser
See My micro-bio
09:09 AM on 06/14/2010
Actually no, your fundamental premise is in error. It is QUITE possible for an economic model to be incorrect.

An excellent example is the right wing "understanding" of reality that drives the rest of your points.
10:29 AM on 06/14/2010
Oh, okay, sure, if I say, let me see, pure communism is the answer, that has been proven to fail.

But otherwise, you're just a liberal and can't talk about "understanding" to anyone.
08:25 PM on 06/13/2010
TimTheWizard 18 hours ago (2:37 AM) 71 Fans
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Unfan Aside from this, how many "goods" does the public need? At what point on the curve do people just say "well, thanks, don't need any more?"
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In a normal free market, the demand wanes and the producers move toward other invests. POR is taking us toward a socialist system economic system. In those systems, consumers take whatever the appointed producers generate. The consumer then has to enter into a barter economic system to satisfy their needs. This is another example of why the socialist style systems are so incredibly inefficient.
10:32 AM on 06/14/2010
I agree. Controlled systems create entirely uncontrolled systems in order to compensate for their rigidity and inefficiencies.

Just curious what POR is though.
07:33 PM on 06/17/2010
POR=Pelosi, Obama, Reid.

Sorry for the slow reply. Got to work.
07:07 PM on 06/13/2010
Slovakia is a place where the government did a good job in this crisis. So good that the governing party won an even bigger plurality to about 35% of the vote. Unfortunately, much of that came at the expense of one of its coalition partners that was dropped below the 5% threshold, and a party run by flat taxers fooled young people into voting for it with promises of marijuana decriminalisations. So now the masters of the world, at the EU and elsewhere, are celebrating the ouster of a popular and good ruler and its replacement with a coalition promising to deregulate, reduce taxes on the rich, cut spending, and they say this will cause a "tiger". Good grief.
03:54 PM on 06/13/2010
Reich is right on. The idea that big companies would accumulate cash which they would then invest is proving a myth. Government pump priming needs to continue, but an educated workforce with access to early stage capital is the most important missing economic ingredient right now.
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Deninor
12:05 AM on 06/14/2010
Please "government pump priming!" With borrowed money to raise our debt to even higher levels?
08:16 AM on 06/14/2010
Debt won't do anywhere near the damage that lack of investment will. Either we invest in ourselves or we end up in the Third World... and the private sector isn't going to do the job.
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JBS
Part time misanthrope & full time curmudgeon
02:51 PM on 06/13/2010
Simple economics - if workers don't share in the benefits of production through wages, they can't maintain the levels of consumption required to drive the economy. Borrow and spend doesn't work for families any more than it works for government.

The truth is that for the last 30 years or more our tax system and our economic system has been geared towards the financial elites extracting the wealth of the nation through profits and hoarding it.

Now there's no money left for workers to spend.
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Earl
Praying for evolution of human species...
02:56 PM on 06/13/2010
Borrow and spend works fine as long as you make a profit on what you borrow for and spend on, such as roads, schools, etc. But when you borrow and spend for wars and weapons systems you hope you never use, it's a losing proposition.
10:41 PM on 06/13/2010
Socialist rhetoric; hoarding.

Socialist has never worked.....
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rel77
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused
01:31 PM on 06/13/2010
It is so obvious what we should be doing right now as a Country - infrastructure. For 2 generations now we have done little or nothing to plan for our future, by investing in broadband, expanding the national grid, bridge repairs, on and on. This is the perfect time to make HUGE investments in rebuilding our highways and cities. It will put people to work AND save the US money in the long run in reduced repair costs and energy costs.
Consider this. When I lived in NYC back in the 80's there was a proposal to repair all seven major bridges for a cost of 7 million dollars. Got voted down, too expensive. Ten years later the City was forced to repair the Williamsburg Bridge because it had gotten so bad they had to. Cost? 7 million dollars. Waiting is very, very expensive.
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02:55 PM on 06/13/2010
Really 7 million? Even in the 80's? Just curious. Seems like a bargain .
12:49 AM on 06/14/2010
Repair our infrastructure? You mean like, oil pipelines?

I know those (the oil companies) are currently private enterprises and not government entities, but I think the allusion holds nonetheless.

I completely agree that we need to be investing in our infrastructure.