Jump Ball in Indiana Will Decide It

In a startling political cycle that has seen both John McCain and Hillary Clinton play the role of Lazarus (she three times) and a young African-American seize the position of frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, the most startling, totally unpredictable turn of all is this: the Indiana primary is probably going to decide who the Democratic nominee is.

During the six weeks between the Mississippi and Pennsylvania primaries, a poorly phrased statement and an uncharacteristically weak debate performance by Barack Obama combined with relentless attacks by the Clinton campaign to raise some doubts about Obama as a candidate. Those doubts were most cogently put by George F. Will in a column a week ago. Will's suggestion that Obama could prove to be another Adlai Stevenson sent a shiver down many Democratic spines. Obama has the capacity to reduce that shiver to a momentary fear, but he needs to address the question directly and demonstrate that he is a genuine champion of workers and the middle class.

Obama remains the front runner, and he will almost certainly win in North Carolina on May 6, but he must reassure both voters and party insiders that he is no Adlai Stevenson and that he is the person to lead the Democrats to victory and the country out of the chasm into which the worst administration in American history has pushed it.

If Obama can provide such reassurance, he will win in Indiana as well as North Carolina and the race will be over. If he cannot, he will still be in the lead, but it will become likely that many will see Sen. Clinton as the safer choice in a year in which it should be almost impossible for the Democrat to lose.

In Pennsylvania, Obama demonstrated that he isn't any good at bowling, and Hillary Clinton and her supporters knocked him down like ten pins (and by ten percent). Now the junior senator from Illinois needs to convince his neighbors in Indiana that being president isn't about knocking over pins. It's about knocking down gas prices and the bloated compensation of greedy, incompetent CEOs. It's about helping Americans to keep their "little pink houses" from being foreclosed. It's about obtaining full membership in the civilized world for the United States by providing health insurance for all our citizens. It's about ending a disastrous war in Iraq and preventing a new one with Iran . . . and how well one bowls has exactly nothing to do with these matters that will determine the future of this "troubled land."

Bowling isn't Barack Obama's game; basketball is his sport -- and Indiana's. Hillary Clinton has shown an ability to take on different personas in different states and it would not be surprising if the role she chooses for Indiana is that of Bobby Knight, which would include throwing chairs at Obama.

In Pennsylvania, which shares a long border with New York, Clinton enjoyed something of a home-court advantage; Obama will be playing with a similar small home-court advantage in Indiana, which shares a long border with Illinois.

The worst thing Obama can do now is to go into Dean Smith's four corners offense, holding the ball while trying to run out the clock with a small lead. His best defense at this point is to show what he can do on offense, without being offensive. To impress Indiana voters--and superdelegates--Obama needs to take it to the basket. He should not sit on his lead by resisting another debate with Hillary Clinton; rather, he should be insisting upon another match so he can snatch the opportunity to rebound from his poor-shooting night in Philadelphia, where he found himself playing defense for too much of the game.

As the game clock was running down, with the outcome on the line, Larry Bird always wanted the ball so he could take the last shot and win. Barack Obama needs to show the same confidence now. If he does so, there will be no more overtimes in this multi-overtime Democratic contest.

We know that Barack Obama can beautifully sing ditties that win the affection of "American kids growin' up in the heartland." The question is whether he can win the support of their mothers and grandparents. In Indiana he has the opportunity to close the deal by showing that "this is our country" and that he is, indeed, one of us.

Sen. Obama can achieve this end by using the controversy over his remark on bitter people in the way he did the controversy over Rev. Wright's sermons: as an opportunity to discuss critical areas that define both American ideals and the current reality. His speech on race was brilliant and went a long way toward diffusing the Wright controversy. In the next two weeks, Obama should give similar speeches on class and religion. (He already gave a wonderful speech on the latter topic in the summer of 2006, and I suggest the outlines of a progressive message on religion to combat that Jesus Thieves of the Right in my new book, Grand Theft Jesus: The Hijacking of Religion in America.)

The Democratic nomination is a jump ball in Indiana. The winner will be the candidate who emerges singing "Indiana Wants Me" (with a different storyline from that of the song). If Barack Obama grabs the ball and takes it to the hoop, he'll both win the nomination and put himself on track to win the presidency. If he doesn't, he better watch out for flying chairs.

Robert S. McElvaine teaches history at Millsaps College. His latest book, Grand Theft Jesus: The Hijacking of Religion in America, has just been published by Crown.

Comments

[CaptainObvious]

"Jump Ball in Indiana"

LMAO. Amazing. The Clinton camp has now "moved the goalposts" so far, they changed to a different sport altogether.

NEWS FLASH: Obama has already won. Come join the winning team! There are plenty of seats left at the table under our big tent!

[Magi91711]

Bama will do well if he sticks to the teleprompter. It's those pesky situations where he has to provide an unscripted anwer where he gets into trouble. He either says something totally stupid (typical white woman) or simply refuses to answer (let me eat mt waffle)

God help us all if he's the nominee.

[rightwing52000]

are you serious, have you ever even heard him speak? You provide two bad examples over the course of a year of constant campaigning and you expect us to believe he needs a teleprompter anywhere he goes? Let me put this shit out right now, I have been to a town-hall meeting in Iowa where Barack answered dozens of questions more thoughtfully and intellectually than any other candidate in either field. There is a reason he won the Iowa caucus and the countless other contests he has won this primary season. He knows how to answer tough questions on the fly better than any candidate I have ever seen.

God help you if you cannot see that.

[Gibbons]

A poorly phrased comment? He was stereotyping the white working class to a bunch of billionaires in California and the pity of it is he still doesn't get it. Every time he is called on something like this he says it didn't come out right and thinks that should cover it. Also this was the first election since Reverend Wright has been outed and that white working class love their country almost as much as their God and they don't like to hear people saying Goddamn America. The republicans have about ten of his sermons and that was not an isolated incident. Most of the states to come are loaded with "those people".

[fourex]

Gibbons, "He was stereotyping the white working class".
No he wasn't he was repeating historical facts documented by 3 or 4 historians. Read a book gibon.

[NCGuy]

Clinton was staing historical facts about MLK and LBJ and you see where that got her....

[Shozen]

Rather than being a Lazarus, Hillary is more like the zombie candidate that wouldn't die.

I find it quite ironic that, in the pundit and spinner world, Obama must somehow totally defeat Clinton in order to be considered viable in the fall. But Clinton, the inevitable nominee who lost, is considered viable despite her inability to maintain her lead.

What a double standard.

[trubluelefty]

Hoosiers we need you... Go obama

[ElliottPhD]

I live in Southern Indiana. If Barack wants to win BIG in this state, he has to show he's the smart guy, the guy with answers to this country's problems. He has to speak not just in generalities and rhetoric, but with specifics. The elderly crowd and farmers will listen, but they won't be swayed by motivational speeches. Save those to rally younger voters to the polls. Perhaps town hall meetings would help Barack connect.

Hoosiers are also turned off by Hillary "standing by her man" while he had numerous affairs and she did "damage control" and worked to destroy the credibility of women who had been wronged by her husband. This may be okay with Catholic voters, who have become accustomed to protecting priests following their immoral behavior; and women who are willing to support ANY woman to the presidency; but many Hoosiers strongly reject the immorality of the Clintons and will not support a person so lacking in integrity.

[fourex]

"Jump Ball in Indiana Will Decide It"
No it won't.

[grendl]

Barack Obama has to stop thinking so much, and go with his gut instinct.

What he said to those San Francisco supporters should've been said in Pennsylvania. Hearing he has a secret side he reserves for one part of the country, and hides from the voters in PA shows he is somewhat of an elitist. He didn't think the Pennsylvanian electorate could take the bitter pill.

So he screwed up there. And the bowling incident was one of those gaffes that boggles the imagination. Dukakis in an army helmet, Kerry on a sailboard, and Barack bowling. What are his people thinking? It would be cute? Gutsy?

No it was stupid, and made it seem like he was a guy who took on tasks that he wasn't up to, like say the presidency . It's painful to watch his campaign at times, trying to take the high road, where the bodies of Kerry and Dukakis are strewn.Hillary has learned one thing, becoming like the enemy who have won the White House.

Has she done it the right way? No. The ethical way? No. Will she try and swing the superdelegates her way even if it means overriding the popular vote and pledged delegates...hells yes. She wants the job, which is admirable. It's time for Barack to prove he wants it to. Not by stooping to her level, but by being smart, and understanding this country feasts on soundbites.

[Gibbons]

Barak has already stooped far below her level. He snubbed the Martin L. King service to campaign while his wife sent out e-mails about Dr. King with a plea for donations. Was that because Dr. King preached Love rather than Hate.?

[kettletop]

He did say the same thing in Pennsylvania.
Those who were offended weren't going to vote for him anyway. This is a non-issue created by Clinton and hyped by the media because they like the spectacle.

She has proven by her tactics that she will do nothing to help restore our reputation in the world. Obama has showed that you can be a nice guy and still finish first, even in the dirty nasty world of politics.

She is fighting when she attacks him.
He is somehow betraying his ideals when he defends himself, and a wimp when he doesn't attack her. That's the narrative that Clinton is pushing and the Republicans and Clinton's friends are pushing on us.

[Magi91711]

It's judgment, my friend, that is the issue. He demonstrates very little good judgment in of UNGUARDED moments.

I was a Bama voter, but the closer I looked, the less I liked. All glitz, no substance, and no judgment.

[usedtowander]

It seems to me that Barack Obama and his wife have already adequately revealed their real view of Americans.

A major element of Obama's "charm" has been purported to be his "authenticity."

You now suggest that he purposely hide his authentic message so that he can be elected.

Some ethics. Some change.

How is this behavior substantially different from other politicians - despite Obama's marketing message of Change?
If his message of change is actually false, then that would leave him to run on his nearly non-existent experience.

How do you think his experience will play in a general election against John McCain?

[dumboldfarmer]

Indiana voters are smarter than many people like to think.

[DaCoach]

I keep asking myself if there is anyone Obama's campaign staff who actually understands Reagan Dems. He has a great association with them on the basis of his basketball skills and his people send him to a bowling alley. Can anyone tell me when they've seen someone bowl wearing a white shirt and tie? Terrible decision making. He has never played to his strength. Sure, he keeps his base with the messages of hope but he never expands that base and brings in the white blue collars.

Personally, I don't want him in another debate. His style is not nearly as attractive to voters as Hillary's smooth presentation. Bring up the issues you mentioned but do it on his terms, not hers. Larry Bird knew how to use the clock when he had a lead. That's just smart basketball. Ask Dean how many championships he has and then ask Tarkanian. A smart player doesn't throw up threes if he's not a perimeter player and that's Barack's game.

[katefranklin]

Now might be a good time to do some actual *vetting* of Hillary to show exactly how well she thinks she can handle the heat in the kitchen. It might be time to give folks a refresher course in Clintonian lies and corruption.

[Bluedog12]

Bill Clinton is already there. In Diana. Campaining hard. You go baby!

[NC4Obama]

Basketball's is NC game to... its called the Tar Heel state for a reason.

The math is agaisnt Clinton big time,
If Obama wins both then super delegates will come out in large numbers behind him and she will concede most likely.
If he only wins NC and loses IN then super delegates only slowly come out (still favoring him) and she concedes some time latter.
If she some how wins both then i the math favors Obama still but the media will have a heart attack.

Most likely thing is IN being close and NC going heavy for Obama. The demographics in NC favor him, more younger/educated votes and high AA amount.

[AuntSally]

Nonsense.

Even if Clinton won Indiana by 15 points (not bloody likely), she simply cannot catch Obama's delegate count and popular vote.

[NCGuy]

that's the fallacy of your thinking. she DOESN'T have to. It's all up to the supers and they can use whatever criteria they want to.