Clinton, Miss. It's Over.
And the antecedent of it is not merely the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. Two bigger "its" are also over: the general election and the era of Republican dominance.
While the numbers receiving the most media attention on Tuesday -- the results of the West Virginia Democratic primary -- were bad for Barack Obama, two other sets of numbers indicate that he and his party will win an overwhelming victory in November.
The first is the finding of a new Washington Post-ABC News poll that 82% of Americans believe that the nation is headed in the wrong direction, while only 16% think it is headed in the right direction. Although John McCain currently runs well ahead of his party, a victory by the party in power in the face of such numbers borders on the impossible.
But the Tuesday poll result that provides the clearest (and for Republicans most terrifying) writing on the wall came from here in Mississippi. The victory by Democrat Travis Childers over Republican Greg Davis in a special election for the House seat representing Mississippi's First District is sending shock waves throughout the Grand Old Party.
This is the third long-term Republican House seat won by a Democrat in recent weeks (the other two were in Illinois and Louisiana). The Republican party threw all its putative assets into the race, beginning with race itself.
GOP ads linked Childers with Barack Obama and Jeremiah Wright. One said that Childers took "Obama's endorsement over our values." Another declared, "Records prove Obama endorsed Childers!"
It didn't work. Neither did bringing in Dick Cheney on Monday -- a desperation move that may well have hurt the Republican candidate. While Davis was trying to link his opponent to Obama and Wright, he was linking himself with Cheney and President Bush, which is increasingly looking similar to tying yourself to an anchor when jumping into water.
John McCain will have that anchor hanging from his neck in November, as will Republican candidates around the country.
Three of the four Congressmen from Mississippi are now Democrats. What's more, there is a very real chance that, with Obama at the head of the ticket, a huge African-American vote in November will enable Democratic former Governor Ronnie Musgrove to defeat newly appointed Republican Senator Roger Wicker. Furthermore, as I argued nearly two years ago, there is a real possibility that Obama could carry Mississippi.
Republicans should be singing a new song about the home of the blues:
"Mississippi, Mississippi--if we can't make it there, we can't make it anywhere"
As they see the Mississippi result, Republicans must also be sadly singing,
Our guardian star lost all its glow
The day that I lost you
It has rarely been the case that as Mississippi goes, so goes the nation, but when this red state turns blue it's a sure indication that the GOP is the Gone Old Party.
And that's why Barack Obama is smiling even after Hillary Clinton's big victory in West Virginia. Because Bush and the Republicans painted the country a bright red to turn it upside down, Obama is able to sing,
I'm painting it too
But I'm painting it blue
(Robert S. McElvaine teaches history at Millsaps College. His latest book, Grand Theft Jesus: The Hijacking of Religion in America, has just been published by Crown.)
Obama may not win the general election due to the electorial college but Obama has coat-tails that will better serve the democratic party and all of the down ballot democratic canidates.
I can see the GOP ads now when they point out that Obama thinks gas prices are just fine and are being determined by market forces. Childers will have a BIG load to haul on that one. It will really be hard when he cannot deny the fact that he will be supporting much of Obama and the Democrats agenda. It will be even more fun when the GOP points out that the Senate on both sides thinks that he is wrong on the gas price issue.
Quote:
Childers, a conservative Democrat who called himself “pro-life and pro-gun” in his advertising, won 54 percent of the vote. Now, he'll join his similarly minded neighbor, Rep. Don Cazayoux, a newly minted Louisiana legislator who won his spot on May 3.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24613179/
Democrats ain't so dumb after all.
Pro-Gun!
Pro-Life!
Works for me!
How many did follow his suggestion and change their party affiliation and thus were unable to vote as a Republican in this election?
Did Limpbaugh break any laws?
Louisiana has a much more intres'tin' procedure. Everyone is thrown into the same kettle and - if no one has a majority - there's a run-off between the top two. Party affiliation is irrelevant.
I think a large part of what we're seeing with these special Congressional elections is the coattail effect of the primary registration drives. If so, this is good news as we move toward the general election. If Obama's 50-state voter registration drive is half as effective during this summer and fall, a whole bunch of other red areas will be turning blue.
At a minimum the states will show their color, purple. No more slicing and dicing the electorate. Finally, a President who will encourage us to share what we have in common . . . we are all Americans.
Most are good people. They will respect him more for respecting them. (As was proven in Indiana with the gas tax holiday.) They appreciate an acknowledgment of their differences on some issues.
He's already starting to do it, but he must redouble his efforts for the W Virginians and other predominantly rural states.
What I admire about the American system is that states are almost independent in terms of their laws. So if hunting guns are a tradition in Pennsylvania... why then the laws must be written to accommodate that.
In urban cities like LA and Chicago and NY where guns are used by criminals ... the laws should be stricter there.
Its crucial for Obama to inform these people that HIS personal (liberal?) beliefs as President wont affect what is important to them because they have State legislatures that ensure their traditions and critical issues, remain that way.
He MUST get them to focus on the big picture. The issues are: the economy, the Iraq disaster, foreign policy and the Constitution
I have faith that Americans, even the 'blue collar lunch bucket hard working Hillary-voting (sorry, cudnt resist!)' types will appreciate this.
Pennsylvania already has among the weakest gun control legislation in the country. Because of this, Philadelphia is overburdened with gun violence. Even if Philadelphia enacts its own laws, as it has tried to do, it won't keep people from traveling a few miles to get the guns.
New Jersey has much stricter gun control than Pennsylvania, but it is not helping as much as it should, because criminals in cities like Camden and Trenton can easily send straw purchasers into Pennsylvania to get their guns. Allentown, for instance, is a big source of guns for Trenton.
The only gun control bill which actually cut gun violence appreciably in recent memory was the Brady Bill, a national law which originally required not only a background check, but a waiting period. Gun violence decreased across the country, only to spike once more after the bill was gutted and the waiting period was eliminated.
Most people want sensible gun control. They also want to keep guns legal for law-abiding citizens. We should be able to walk and chew gum.
If I am dead from a criminal, things like the economy, or Iraq won't matter to me. So my protection and that of my family is paramount to anything. If someone car jacks me, the last thing they see will be the muzzle flash from the handgun sitting next to me. If someone breaks into myhouse, my FS200(on the other side of my house)or Mossberg 935 shotgun(as I get behind my bed and fire when the door opens) will be the last thing they see.
I am not clinging to guns, but they are Issue #1 to me.
I'll say welcome and join the fray.
Still, that can only be considered as an improvement.
It makes West Virginia's five votes seem kind of paltry.