07/26/2012 06:04 pm ET | Updated Sep 25, 2012

Un-Favorite Son

Progressive Point of the Day: This is the first in a series of brief pieces that will offer suggestions to the Obama campaign and progressives on effective points to raise and ways to frame their argument. Consider it an advice column for Democrats, who have been having messaging problems for years. Despite the "Point of the Day" tag, it will not appear every day, but it will appear often between now and the election.

Mitt's Massachusetts Problem

The Obama campaign has had considerable success in attacking one of Mitt Romney's two principal claims of having proven himself to be someone who can restore the economy and help middle-class Americans: his tenure as the head of Bain Capital.

Now it's time to unload the other barrel of the shotgun against the other claim: that Romney was a success while he was governor of Massachusetts.

Here's the best indicator of just how unsuccessful he was in that post: A few weeks ago, Massachusetts was the state in which Romney trailed President Obama by the largest margin, and it is presently the state in which he trails by the second largest margin.

In his home state, the former governor is now estimated to be 21 points behind the President.

Over the past half century, the victor in every presidential election won his home state and all but two (George McGovern in 1972 and Al Gore in 2000) of the losers won their home states.

Romney's current 36 percent support in Massachusetts is 21 percent less than the average home-state totals for the past twelve presidential winners and more than 15 points behind the home-state average for losing presidential nominees.

The average home state margin of victory for the winners of the last dozen presidential elections was 18.8 percent. Mitt Romney is currently running an astonishing 40 points behind the 50-year home state average for the winners of presidential elections.

Here's the point the Obama campaign should start to drive home:

In his home state, Mitt Romney is trailing by 21 points. Those who know Romney, his policies and record best are more opposed to him than are people in almost any other state--and far, far more opposed to him than the voters in the home state of any of the major party nominees in the last 50 years were to them.

{A more extended discussion of this topic first appeared in Politico.}