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11/10/2016 06:49 pm ET | Updated Nov 10, 2016

What Does The Trump Victory Mean For Climate Change Policy?

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Those of you who have read my previous essay at this blog, "This is Not a Time for Political Neutrality" (October 9, 2016), know that my greatest concerns about a Trump presidency (then a possibility, now a certainty), were not limited to environmental policy, but rather were "about what a Trump presidency would mean for my country and for the world in realms ranging from economic progress to national security to personal liberty," based on his "own words in a campaign in which he substituted impulse and pandering for thoughtful politics" ... and "built his populist campaign on false allegations about others, personal insults of anyone who disagrees with him, and displays of breathtaking xenophobia, veiled racism, and unapologetic sexism."

That's a broad indictment, to be sure, but whatever real expertise I may have is actually limited to environmental, resource, and energy economics and policy, and so that has and will continue to be the real focus of this blog, "An Economic View of the Environment." With that in mind, I return today from last month's brief immersion in partisan politics to discuss climate change policy.

Yesterday, an editor at The New York Times asked me to write a 500-word essay giving my view of what the Trump victory will mean for climate policy. This morning, my very brief essay was published under the headline, "Goodbye to the Climate." Given the brevity of the piece, it does not touch on many issues and subtleties (I come back to that at the end of today's blog post), but rather than take the time to expand it, I want to get this to you quickly, and so I am simply reproducing it as it first appeared in the Times (along with an interesting group of other essays, under the overall heading, "What Happened on Election Day: How the election and Donald Trump's victory looks to Opinion writers."

The New York Times

By Robert N. Stavins

Donald J. Trump once tweeted that "the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive." Twitter messages may not be clear signs of likely public policies, but Mr. Trump followed up during the campaign with his "America First Energy Plan," which would rescind all of President Obama's actions on climate change.

The plan includes canceling United States participation in the Paris climate agreement and stopping all American funding of United Nations climate change programs. It also includes abandoning the Clean Power Plan, a mainstay of the Obama administration's approach to achieving its emissions reduction target for carbon dioxide under the Paris agreement.

What should we make of such campaign promises? Taking Mr. Trump at his word, he will surely seek to pull the country out of the Paris pact. But because the agreement has already come into force, under the rules, any party must wait three years before requesting to withdraw, followed by a one-year notice period.

Those rules would seem to be mere technicalities. The incoming Trump administration simply can disregard America's pledge to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 26 to 28 percent below the 2005 level by 2025. That is bad enough. But the big worry is what other key countries, including the world's largest emitter, China, as well as India and Brazil, will do if the United States reneges on its pledge. The result could be that the Paris agreement unravels, taking it from the 97 percent of global emissions currently covered by the pact to little more than the European Union's 10 percent share.

In addition, Mr. Trump's Environmental Protection Agency probably will stop work on regulations of methane emissions (a very potent greenhouse gas) from existing oil and gas operations. Undoing complex existing regulations, such as the Clean Power Plan, will be more difficult, but a reconstituted Supreme Court will probably help President Trump when that plan inevitably comes before the court. Also, the new president will most likely ask that the Keystone XL pipeline permit application be renewed — and facilitate other oil and gas pipelines around the country.

On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump promised to "bring back" the coal industry by cutting environmental regulations. That may not be so easy. The decline of that industry and related employment has been caused by technological changes in mining, and competition from low-priced natural gas for electricity generation, not by environmental regulations. At the same time, Mr. Trump has pledged to promote fracking for oil and gas, but that would make natural gas even more economically attractive, and accelerate the elimination of coal-sector jobs.

If he lives up to his campaign rhetoric, Mr. Trump may indeed be able to reverse course on climate change policy, increasing the threat to our planet, and in the process destroy much of the Obama legacy in this important realm. This will make the states even more important players on this critical issue.

Robert N. Stavins is a professor at Harvard, where he directs the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements.

Given the brevity of the piece, it is not intended to be comprehensive of the many implications for climate change policy of the Trump victory (nor the implications of the Republicans continuing to hold majorities in both houses of Congress).

And I did not get into the many subtleties of the issues I identified. At a bare minimum, these would include:

  • the possibility of the new administration trying to bypass the four-year delay involved in dropping out of the Paris climate agreement by taking the one-year route of dropping out of the overall United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) — signed by President George H.W. Bush and ratified by the U.S. Senate in 1992;

  • federal "climate change policies" that have been bipartisan and are therefore much less likely to be repealed, such the latest CAFE and appliance efficiency standards, and the recently extended wind and solar tax credits; and

  • the myriad of sub-national climate change policies, ranging from AB-32 in California to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in the northeast (It's not a coincidence that there's a high — although not perfect — correlation between the states Secretary Clinton won in the election and the location of the most ambitious climate change policies).

On another occasion, after I've had an opportunity to reflect more calmly and carefully on the implications of the forthcoming Trump presidency for environmental, natural resource, and energy policy, I will return to this topic. But for now, I have to prepare for my trip in a few days to Marrakech, Morocco, for the annual UNFCCC negotiations. Given the election results, my meetings there may be quite strange, if not surreal. I hope to write about that in my next essay at this blog.

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