A tough, nasty Arizona law pulled immigration rights marchers back into the streets of American cities over the weekend, demanding that Washington take action. Given how President Obama and the Democratic leaders in Congress have responded to Arizona's provocation, the marchers might end up wishing they had stayed home.
Two possible outcomes lie ahead: Congress can pass a bill based on the Democratic proposal unveiled late last week by Sen. Charles Schumer, the immigration subcommittee chair. Or, the legislative effort stalls and nothing gets passed this year. Neither is a particularly good scenario for immigrant rights advocates, Latino political leaders and others who share the views of those who marched Saturday.
Pro-immigration forces have been badgering President Obama since his inauguration to fulfill his campaign promise to make comprehensive immigration reform a priority. Now that the first steps towards Congressional action have been taken, they are going to have to keep up the pressure. Obviously, it would be huge setback if an immigration debate ends in stalemate as it did in the Senate in 2006 and 2007.
Each of those debates involved weeks, if not months, of behind the scenes negotiating and then weeks of floor action with a fully committed White House and bipartisan sponsorship from the start. This year the Senate has little time available with a Supreme Court nomination and other matters looming, Obama is totally MIA on this issue compared to George W. Bush, and the two political parties are more at odds than at any time in living memory.
If the battle is joined on Capitol Hill and no legislation emerges, as seems likely, the immigration issue might not come up again until after the 2012 presidential elections. But, Latino politicians and the immigrant rights activists could face another, even more immediate, peril.
Top Democrats, including Sen. Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, are barely disguising their hope to use immigration to boost Latino voter turnout in the November election. A stalemate blamed on the Republicans would fit this strategy just fine. But, it is not a great situation for Latino Democrats. They'll have to make good on their claim that the Latino electorate is finally big enough to play kingmaker under the extremely unfavorable circumstances of an off-year election in which their party is likely to take a drubbing.
At best, they'll be able to claim that a Latino mobilization curtailed Democratic losses. That's not exactly the sleeping-giant-awakens narrative that Latino leaders have touted. And, even to get that, they'll have to rally Latinos with the weak argument that Obama and the Congressional Democrats are better than the Republicans on immigration even though they couldn't accomplish anything.
A successful Congressional debate might not be a lot better for those who have the interests of Saturday's marchers at heart. Obama and other top Democrats in Washington had been trying to avoid the immigration issue until Arizona forced them to scramble. Most of the proposal unveiled last Thursday had been drafted over the past several months with the intent of getting Republicans onboard as co-sponsors. That failed, completely, but in the rush to respond to Arizona, Schumer, with Reid at his side, went public with a proposal that makes major concessions. That proposal is now the opening bid for any negotiation.
For example, the Schumer proposal adopts the "enforcement first" logic that Republicans have been promoting for years: A series of specific benchmarks on enforcement--more border controls, more worksite inspectors, more deportation courts--have to be accomplished first before a legalization program can go into effect. That could easily put off legalization for several years. Plus the proposal envisions a zero-tolerance approach to those who run afoul of the immigration system by putting a variety of new sanctions in place.
On the other hand, the Democrats are offering a "provisional visa" for low-skilled workers that could get them permanent residence after six years. And, the proposed legalization program is more generous than many past schemes because it would cover every unauthorized migrant in the country at the time of enactment instead of just those who have been here for a number of years.
But, again, that is the opening bid from liberal Democrats. In order to become law it will have to attract some moderate Democrats and presumably a few Republicans at least, and that will require negotiating towards greater restriction, probably tightening up the provisional visa, limiting the legalization program and even more enforcement.
The Schumer proposal includes a measure that would block Arizona-like laws at the state and local level. That's what Saturday's marchers were seeking, but they might find it comes with a high price. Arizona's provocation did not produce any good options.
Roberto Suro is a professor at USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism and is author of "Strangers Among Us: Latino Lives in a Changing America".
Claudio Ivan Remeseira: Walt Whitman and the Immigration Debate
It is a geographic /historical coincidence that Arizona has a border with mexico, and thus most of the illegal immigrant problem will be with mexicans, or didnt you know?
We all know that if any of the recently proposed bills were ever passed that any enforcement would be a joke. Heck Napolatano has already came out saying the border is pretty secure. So we would have amnesty, the funds for all enforcement would dry up. the rewards for illegals would remain and in another 20-30 years we would be looking at another amnesty for at least 20 million illegals. The same groups would be screaming for "their" rights. They would claim EITC for all their kids on their "back taxes" until we OWED them money. They would answer "yes" and be considered proficient in english.
What about most CITIZENS rights? You know one of the main jobs of our congress is the protection of the US from invasion. I hate to use that term but it is applicable. They come by the millions both illegally and legally because we have the most open and liberal immigration nujmbers in the world - by far. They whip up hysteria and try to claim racism to anyone who disagrees with them. They use our largess against us by spawning out anchors and demanding amnesty.
Enough - open borders folks had their day in 1986. We were promised amnesty would never happen again. Fraud was rampant in that one and will be much worse if we ever stoop that low again.
Mexico wants in. This isn't just 3 people that hopped the fence, behind these folks are more, and more, and more, and...where's all that going to end up, exactly? Other countries, Mexico included, have a clear responsibility to support their own citizens. Neither Arizonans nor other state residents should have to put up with some kind of foreign-based rewrite of our laws.
Mroeover, while most of our illegal aliens are just honest, hard working people merely in search of jobs, our obsolete laws literally guarantee increasingly poor outcomes for America the longer we keep them in place. These outcomes are made substantially worse by our Social Democrat Party. which hopes to import poverty, illiteracy, a third world culture, and votes by legalizing the 20+Million illegals.
While severe employer sanctions are essential to self deportation, the most essential change is repeal of the anchor baby provision of the 14th Amendment. Until this is changed, every other measure only serves the political ambitions of the left until Astlan or República Del Norte become the issue.
Unfortunately for the Democratic Party, their declaration of war against the unemployed American workers may backfire.
Not to mention that in spite of the fact that illegal border crossings are predominantly due to the demand of our fellow citizens for cheap labor and illegal drugs the pro AZ folks still focus almost all of their comments on the illegals personal traits. As if the illegals crossing have nothing to do with us except to offend us with their moral shortcomings, procreative proclivities and various similarities to insects and other non-human animals.
Given this utter lack of rationality...I have to wonder why pro AZ law types are so full of s**t.
7 out of 10 mexican females are sexually abused by "coyotes" or smugglers.many others are beaten,blackmailed,murdered,die in the desert of no water.chuck shumer wants to keep it this way along with greedy right wingers.
to me its humane to enforce law and order.create work programs for them and punish employers HARSHLY for under the table or non registered workers.its the right thing to do.
to anyone who says chuck shumer wants to end this situation with amnesty, ask yourself what happens when you grant them all citizenship,do you think the problem is solved and the waves of exploited will stop, and the cycle is complete?of course not,more poor people are still screwed over and they will keep coming anyway they can.the exploitation goes on and on....
Secondly E-Verify can be bypassed if the applicant has managed to procure a social security number that will pass cruitiny. They then only need forged photo ID. I screened job applicants for labor positions at my company and nine out of ten applicants had fake papers. Eventually the word got out and they stopped applying at our company.
Even under current laws it is a felony to attest that you are legal to work in the US. It is also a felony to sign off on an I-9 application knowing that the appliacnt is illegal.
The problem is extensive and if you do the math about 1 in 15 people in AZ are illegal. Half of all the boarder crossings into the US occur in teh Tucson sector. If you look at the Hispanic community in isolation then probably 1 in 6 hispanics in AZ are illegal.
I think the voracity of their protest is because they are aware of this and know that 20 odd percent of the Hispanics are going to land in hot water if their papers are subjected to close scrutiny.
Simple legalization will simply make American citizens out of hardened criminals as well. If there is any legalization, at the least the only documents allowed should be a passport, or Mexican voter ID card. The matricula is so insecure and fraud prone that Mexico does not accept them as valid IDs.
For illegals who are male and between the ages of 18-25, a draft registration card MUST be a requirement as well.
Offending them? by wearing the the US flag (lets get by the issue that the flag shouldn't be worn as apparel) in the US. And they are offended over a holiday promoted and marketed by beverage mfgs that isn't even a National Holiday in Mexico.
This example is why so many people are like sc rew them, and now will be in favor.