The Supreme Leader's Gamble: Iran's Crisis Deepens

Iran's political crisis is no longer only about the disputed presidential election. In taking an unyielding stand behind the results of the contested vote, Iran's supreme leader put his own position and powers on the line too.

The unusual speech by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at Friday prayers was the most important in his 20 years in power. It was also a huge gamble. By endorsing President Ahmadinejad's relection, rejecting compromise with the opposition, and condemning the protests, he has now set the stage for an even bigger confrontation.

The test of whether the opposition that has galvanized around former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi has real legs will now be determined by whether it defies Khamenei's authority this weekend and turns out in the same stunning numbers it did during the first week of Iran's crisis.

If they do, the focus will now be a challenge to the supreme leader as much as of the questionable election results. Whether Ahmadinejad really won a landslide over the widely popular Mousavi becomes almost a secondary issue.

The crisis has been building in that direction all week. The undercurrent of the defiant protests, which have now spread to cities across Iran, have increasingly become a rebuff of Khamenei.

In Iran's unique blend of religion and state, Khamenei is effectively an infallible political pope. The position was originally designed to be the sage providing oversight on government leaders and guidance in blending the laws of man and God. But over the past three decades, the velayet-e faqih, or rule of the jurist, has steadily become more authoritative about all functions of state, the judiciary and the military -- and more authoritarian. His word is, literally, final.

His message Friday was that he is willing to condone whatever it takes to end the turmoil -- and the opposition has now been warned.

"Some may imagine that street action will create leverage against the system and force the authorities to give in to threats," he said at Friday Prayers in Tehran.

"No, this is wrong... "It must be determined at the ballot box what the people want and what they don't want, not in the streets," he warned. "I call on all top put an end to this method...If they don't, they will be held responsible for the chaos and the consequences.

The position of supreme leader has been controversial since it was created in the chaotic early days of the revolution to deal with internal squabbling. After his return from exile, revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini had originally returned to the religious center of Qom, but was forced to move back to Tehran as disputes among the fractious coalition that ousted the last shah began to fall apart.

Many of the Shiite clerics in Qom never embraced the idea of either a supreme leader or a central role for clerics in the new Islamic republic. Iran's revolution represented not just a political upheaval. It was also a revolution within Shiism, which for 14 centuries had prohibited a clerical role in politics. With clerics taking over government, many senior Shiite clerics feared that Islam would end up being tainted by the human flaws of the state.

The current crisis has effectively revived that debate -- and deepened the divide between the government and the Shiite clergy as well as with the public. The government includes many clerical institutions, including the 12-member Council of Guardians, the 86-member Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council. But not even all of its members are happy with the election.

More importantly, senior clerics in Qom have noticeably failed to either endorse the election results or embrace Ahmadinejad, while long-time critics within the clergy used the crisis to encourage resistance to the supreme leader's dictates.

Ayatollah Ali Montazeri, who was originally designated to become supreme leader until he criticized the regime's excesses in 1989, dismissed the election results and called on "everyone" to continue "reclaiming their dues" in calm protests. He also issued a warning to Iran's security forces not to accept government orders that might eventually condemn them "before God."

"Today censorship and cutting telecommunication lines can not hide the truth," said Montazeri. "I pray for the greatness of the Iranian people."

Others have also bestowed legitimacy on the protests. Grand Ayatollah Saanei -- one of only about a dozen who hold that position -- pronounced Ahmadinejad's presidency illegitimate.

If Ahmadinejad's election is upheld at the end of Iran's deepest crisis since the 1979 revolution, the legitimacy of the supreme leader -- and potentially his ability to exert his powers--will almost certainly be diminished. Millions who have taken to the streets of Iran have already made that clear.

Comments

[fleetw1978]

Robin, this article is way to complicated for the NEO-CONS and John Mcain and the GOP to read through and comprehend. Can you please dumb it down and put in bumper sticker form not too exceed 10 words. That is the only way the "right" will be able to review it and respond. The response by the way will undoubtedly be something along the lines of "obama is a marshmallow, Regan was a beacon of democracy and freedom, when do we invade?"

[wereeverywhere]

[psrt 2 of 2]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/5217424.stm

Being stopped or arrested by the moral police is a fact of life for many Iranian teenagers.

On 15 August, 2004, Atefah Sahaaleh was hanged in a public square in the Iranian city of Neka.
Her death sentence was imposed for "crimes against chastity".
The state-run newspaper accused her of adultery and described her as 22 years old.
But she was not married - and she was just 16.

Former revolutionary guard, 51-year-old Ali Darabi - a married man with children - raped her several times.

The human rights organisation Amnesty International says it is concerned that executions are becoming more common again under President Mahmoud Ahmedinajad, who advocates a return to the pure values of the revolution.

[wereeverywhere]

Since there's been confusion on the everyday repression Iranians face, here's a glimpse lifted from a post on another thread form OswegoKayaker. This crisis is about human beigs, lets not get lost in power politics right now:

"To live under Islamic Sharia law is to live in the world"s largest maximum-security prison, and I for one don"t want to be incarcerated again," writes Darwish in her new book, "Cruel and Usual Punishment: The Terrifying Global Implications of Islamic Law."

Execution of a teenage girl
A television documentary team has pieced together details surrounding the case of a 16-year-old girl, executed two years ago in Iran

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/5217424.stm

[HelloFunnyWorld]

Dear Robin,

We have only 2 points to make: (1) For obvious reasons, we really hope that there is no foreign powers/no foreign groups or foreign individual instigating and pushing this unrest in Iran in a misguided attempt to shape and control the outcome. Because (2) This situation is also Mousavi's moment in time when the whole World will see what he really cares about, as the safety and well being of all Iranians, is also his responsibility. Period. His responsibility. His wife's responsibility. His supporters responsibility too and, not just the responsibility of Khamenei, the Council of Guardians, Ahmadinejad and Co.

For as we all know - Freedom & Democracy comes with Duties and Obligations. On all of us.

We wish the Iranian people well and hope they get what they want without further suffering. Or subtle persuasion by outsiders to riot their way to what they want.

Thank you

[Polly]

Let's hope that the people will prevail & not too many lves will be lost!!

[mac33z]

In the “Wizard Of Oz,” the mantra was, “nobody sees the wizard.”
In Iran, this could very probably change to, “nobody hears the wizard.”
That would be a good thing, to leave the “Dark Ages” behind once and for all.
The separation of church and state is paramount, if true democracy is to be realized.
If real democracy is attained in this current event, then the Iranians could clearly click their heels together three times, and recite the healing mantra of, “there’s no place like home.”

[iridium53]

Wow. That's really American-style thinking.

Despots around the world and throughout history have done very well at suppressing the population.
Religious despots are, generally, more successful than others.

He who has the guns, makes the rules.

Particularly when they've developed a cadre of zealots who actually believe in the word of these fantasy gods.

Iran is lost to their religious zealotry.

[KoolAidAmerica]

I agree. Look at Myanmar.

[WaynedKing]

There are many lessons to be learned from the events in Iran. But one profound lesson is the toxic brew that results from mixing religion and democracy. It is not a democracy when any one religion holds authority over the government. Any group that views their country as a christian or moslem or hindu or buddist nation is a danger to the very notion of democratic republic. Iran will not truly be a democracy until the mullahs go back to the mosques.

[indymaggie]

Amen!

[Insulin]

The US is far worse than Iran as a violator of human rights.

Watch what happened on the first day of the 2008 Republican Convention - you have to see youtube
because the corporate media which is owned by the same interests which own the country and selects the government glossed over the police brutality, arrests ( including journalists ) gasing, clubing and general State enforced violent human rights abuses.

youtube.com and search for,- USA Reality - 2008 RNC Arrests
also youtube - Restraint RNC 2008 Protest Compilation

Leonard Cohen's song " Democracy is coming to the USA" ( coming because it is not there) accompanies the video ... little by little democracy is coming "its coming through a crack in the wall"

Compare the human rights freedom to demonstrate between Iran and the US. On the first day of public demonstrations at the Republican 2008 Convention massive human rights violations are committed by the State against its citizens - Iran has had 7 days of huge massive protests and counting. The media blacks out the State brutality at the GOP Convention yet has non stop coverage of the much lesser Iranian human rigths violations. The comparison shows the US to be far far worse than Iran.

"Democracy is coming to the USA" - Really Leonard Cohen? When will that be ?

[lovbug]

right on

[wereeverywhere]

"Compare the human rights freedom to demonstrate between Iran..."
You think they are "allowed" to demonstrate? The indignant Iranians have asserted their right to be in the streets, and only their numbers protect them, not IRI laws.

Bloggers, political and cultural dissidents, journalists, gays at risk for their very lives. One example:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3070895.stm

Iran has acknowledged that a Canadian-Iranian photojournalist was beaten to death after her arrest outside a prison in Tehran.

Vice President Ali Abtahi said Zahra Kazemi died "of a brain haemorrhage resulting from beatings".

Ms Kazemi, 54, was detained on 23 June for taking pictures of Tehran's Evin prison. She was later pronounced dead after falling into a coma

[Insulin]

"You think they are allowed to demonstrate" - that is exactly the point which you have both missed and misrepresented - they do have the right to demonstrate which is proven by the last week. In the United States we don't - our right to demonstrate is a farce, it exists on paper, in reality is rarely allowed, when it does happen it is limited and more often than not forbidden -

What is your comment on the large arrests at the Republican conventions of 04 and 08. In case you don't know about them they took place in the real United States not the make believe one you imagine exists.

[Ergon]

By allowing the protests in the first place, he played it quite well. In case you haven't noticed, there were about 1000-2000 people out today. The 'revolution's' over.

[wereeverywhere]

Given your track record, you actually reassure me with your pronouncement. By the way do you still really think IRI doesn't hang gays?

[Dredd]

Beating, shooting, and otherwise hurting peaceful protesters is cheating. They do this as they say they do not cheat.

http://blogdredd.blogspot.com/2009/06/we-would-not-cheat-iranian-mullah.html

[Kassandra]

Very interesting post. thank you.
I could only wish that the Christain right would get a grip and realize that they are being infected by "the human flaws of the state." as is obviously happening in Iran.

People don't like their representatives of whatever god they pray to cut with politics and secular power, I think.....or when they do, they really lose their way to any kind of enlightenment that creed may offer.

This mullah, Khemenie ( why are their names so similar???) Has put himself between a rock and a hard place, methinks. I remember the first one Khomenie, he was sure a firebrand and really helped Iran to the isolation they're in today.
I hope the people don't give up. They sure know how to do revolutions over there, whereas here, we get arrested for reading the names of the war dead http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/43793 in the halls of congress while criminals openly admit their crimes and treason on TEEVEE. Go figure

[Lenyon]

I believe and trust the words of The supreme leader.
Have we forgotten that we had a(supreme court) SELECTED PRESIDENT Bush after 2000 election we were not FREE ENOUGH to make the winner win. Or have we forgotten the 2004 election farce.
We were so FREE that an illegal presidentn started 2 WARS. One so he could murder the president of Iraq on a personal vendetta. "after he tried to kill my Daddy".
Be careful America someone might remind us about freedom and justice. And the murder of innocent Iraqi's and Afghan's.
Our Pres. O'Bama has it right.

[Caroline Loy]

"O'Bama"?

Do you think he's Irish?

[ultrabop]

Good point, Robin. It's really all about the Mullahs. They don't seem relevant or even moral at this point.

[bobh]

The sad thing about this is that it makes negotiation with an illegitimate Iranian government all the more difficult. That increases the chance that Israel will drag us into conflict that Iran will not in the end win.