Will It Play in the Poconos? Ten Things Obama Can Do to Win in Pennsylvania

Let's face it. Pennsylvania is Hillary Clinton's to lose.

If the primary were held today, Clinton would win by double digits. If the primary were held next week, same thing. Like neighboring Ohio, where Clinton won 55 percent to Barack Obama's 45 percent, the population tends to be older, whiter, less affluent and less educated than the national average. These are blue collar and Reagan Democrats, concerned more about the economy, health care and other kitchen table issues where Clinton finds lots of traction. If these factors weren't enough to give heartburn to the Obama campaign, then there is the fact that it's a closed primary and the coup de grace: Governor Ed Rendell, the Keystone State's popular governor and former mayor of Philadelphia, is one of Clinton's loudest cheerleaders. The state's political infrastructure will be at her disposal. Clinton will be a formidable foe.

Formidable does not mean insurmountable. While the professional chattering class and the A-list bloggers debate the significance of a "win" in Pennsylvania, there are seven long weeks until the April 22nd primary and the Obama campaign can recalibrate with some lessons (hopefully) learned from Ohio. Here are the top ten things the Obama campaign can do to try to close the gap in the Keystone State ... or at least close the gap to single digits.

10. Drop the tour concerts. Packing 20,000 people into stadiums is incredibly dramatic, and, speaking as a television news producer, it's an incredible visual. But the stadium crowds did not translate into votes in Ohio or Texas, or umm, California, of all places. Book fewer events at stadiums and more Elks' Halls and high school gymnasiums. It's an informal, relaxed setting and perfect for sensible, older voters who do not want to (or cannot) stand in line for hours. Why should they? He needs their vote.

9. Play the "Pied Piper." Do you remember how Hillary Clinton campaigned in Nevada? She went door to door for hours, and, pressed hands in many of the big casinos. It's all about retail politics, shaking hands and knocking on doors. Imagine if the Obama campaign told the press that they could follow him for a day, but, couldn't ask questions. Better yet, imagine the television news sound bites from the voters who were overjoyed to answer a ringing doorbell and discover it was Barack Obama. This would be an Oprah moment.

8. NAFTA. Neither Clinton nor Obama was in the Senate when this treaty was approved and neither one will change much if they were to win the White House. Unfortunately, the Obama campaign has been slow to get in front of their bona fides on the story behind the story on the campaign rhetoric. Clinton hammered Obama on this in Ohio. Expect more fireworks in Pennsylvania.

7. Health Care. Wall Street Journal exit polls show Clinton won more than half of voters "who put health care atop their priority list." In the long term, Obama's health care plan would be more acceptable to Republicans, but, Clinton's will attract more voters on principle. Democrats who are concerned about health care will not be swayed by Republican talking points. In other words, as Ezra Klein suggests, drop the "Harry and Louise" mailers.

6. Commander-in-chief. The "3AM" red phone ad was panned across the netroots but scored a home run in Ohio and Texas. Pennsylvania also has lots of veterans, military installations and older voters concerned about security. Obama is a Foreign Relations Subcommittee chair, why doesn't he hold some hearings, talk more about foreign events, Venezuela and Colombia, etc, in stump speeches. Speaking of that 3AM call...

5. Susan Rice. Obama's senior foreign policy advisor says neither he nor Hillary "are ready to have that 3AM call." Rice was the Assistant Secretary for African Affairs at the State Department under Bill Clinton and foreign policy guru Steve Johnson notes, "We don't know for sure what Barack or Hillary would do with a "3 a.m." phone call, but we don't have to wonder about Susan Rice. She sits on her hands doing nothing.

4. Please Return Lynn Sweet's Phone Calls. Put Rezko behind the campaign and (finally) grant an interview with the Sun-Times reporter. 'Nuff said.

3. Don't Go Negative. If the principal message of Obama's campaign is "hope" and "change", there is no point aggressively going "negative" on Hillary Clinton. It doesn't work, the Republicans have been doing it for years, and, it bolsters her message. Plus, the Clinton campaign plays this game so much better.

2. The City of Brotherly Love. Obama needs a major turnout in Philadelphia. Mayor Michael Nutter, who is black, is a Hillary Clinton man, but the city's "heavy concentration of African-Americans, liberals and college students lead most observers to view it as Obama Country."

The number one thing the Obama campaign should do to take Pennsylvania? Hillary said "Meet me in Ohio," Obama can say, "Meet Me on ..."

1. The Main Line. The Obama-Clinton battle for Pennsylvania will be fought in the collar counties around Philadelphia, the primarily white and upscale voters on the Main Line. Fertile country for Obama but the wild card is Gov. Ed Rendell. These are independent, politically active voters, but, Rendell has worked these townships for decades ...

Comments

[BDunne]

Take, for example, when Al Qaeda terrorists bombed the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, killing hundreds of people. Mrs. Clinton"s schedule does not show any foreign policy meetings in the aftermath of the crisis, only a trip to Andrews Air Force Base to console victims and their families as they returned from Africa to the United States. And when, in retaliation for those embassy attacks, President Clinton bombed Al Qaeda terrorist camps in Afghanistan, where was Mrs. Clinton? The records show that she was vacationing at a "private residence" in Martha"s Vineyard, Ma., and had no official events.

[Manx]

One thing Obama could do in Pennsylvania is to emphasize that if Hillary is sent to the White House, it would be a co-presidency with Bill. Bill has already hinted as much. I don't think Americans, including Pennsylvanians want a co-presidency. That would resonate with Pennsylvania voters.

[Researchguy66]

I grew up in PA and the one thing that's certain is that Pennsylvania Democrats don't fit the mold. Philadelphia is an institutional city and to some extent, Pittsburgh and Harrisburg, but Democrats only a few miles removed from these cities are very different. They're largely pro-gun rights, pro-death penalty and deeply conflicted about abortion-on-demand rights. Lest anyone forget, we elected a pro-choice Democratic governor who was denied a well-derved speaking spot at the Dem convention because of it. Hillary's got more experience with her upsate NY constituents and I expect she's virtually unbeatable since she has the establishment on her side as well.

Obama has more to lose by trying to play to PA politics than he has to gain.The base still (incorrectly) believes he's an unabashed liberal and anything he does to tarnish that notion is damage in the long run. He doesn't need PA. The best he can hope for is to score some political points along the line.

[timm0]

"Obama has more to lose by trying to play to PA politics than he has to gain."

I agree if you mean that he can't waste time trying to try to win the PA Dem establishment. Which is why I urge him to build his own infrastructure (he has plenty of time and has already started) and take it to her in the street. He can counter her sliming very easily and can be very effective if he hits the right issues in the right sequence with a tailored message. He surely doesn't need the machine to help him.

The fact is that the PA political machine is defective, unreliable, and dominated by inadvertently successful blow-hards. And PA Dems are still Dems... they don't take dictation well... not from the machine and not from any "leader." It won't be easy, but he can win PA.

[rmreddicks]

Obama has a chance here to define and/or redefine his candidacy. He could even sustain the argument that his position on healthcare is weak and radicalize it. He could even speak to Iraq in real terms (perhaps he could read Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine" - it's a quick, interesting, well-documented & important read) instead of mouthing centrist rationalizations. The electorate in this time of oncoming economic crises is fertile ground for real change. Combined with the disaster (for all who are the non-rich) of the Iraq invasion the man can speak to real change.

If Obama just wishes to get into political bed with Clinton, well that's a three-way I'm through with.

[AnninCA]

Good article, but I suspect Obama will continue the Starr approach. Unless he lands some real punches soon, he's going to end up validating what she's said all along: She's already vetted. He's proving her point for her. People really don't care about this stuff.

I think they are interested in Obama's NAFTA handling, since we don't know much about this guy. It's instructive to see how he lied, changed the story, tried to blame her, blamed the press.....and did just about everything in the world except what he should have done and that is, be accountable.

Her ads in Mississippi are isues-focused with a spin that challenges him. His campaign is nothing but what it was in SC.........all insults about how she's a liar. What? Complimenting him by suggesting that it would great if he were on the ticket is insulting to him?

Once again, real voters don't get this Obama reaction. He'll win Mississippi, of course. But regular people are wondering what the heck is this guy so sensitive about. He should just chill out.

His current approach will not play in Penn.

[roneckley16823]

I think people are underestimating Obamas attraction in Pennsylvania. He will surely get my vote, and although the rest of my family are Republicans, they also will vote for Obama. The first time they crossed over since Kennedy. This State does not like the Clintons, and I haven't found many voters here that do. Philadelphia will defintely go for the Clintons - they are all part of that machine. I will tell you, if Clinton gets the nomination, then you can be assured half of the party will be voting for McCain. We do not want another Clinton in the White House. The fantasy is over Hillary. Obama 08.

[rmreddicks]

Somewhat off message but perhaps germane. Of the Obama, Clinton, McCain websites McCain's is the most straightforward. Seems to bode ill for the casual web user / voter. Peoples older relatives are more likely to vote than their young ones. Older folks aren't inclined to put up with silly or bad websites. I see a swing of two thousand votes here.

[meese]

I'm confused what this article is saying about Susan Rice. I've always found Ms. Rice to be very thoughtful, and if you're wondering why the Bill Clinton administration didn't take action in Africa, well, you can chalk it up to some half hearted attempts that he made (including Somalia) that made him gun shy.

[RodMcCullom]

Susan Rice was the Clinton Administration's Assistant Secretary for African Affairs.

You can say the buck stopped at the White House, but, if you want to know who advised the WH on Rwanda and Somali, it happened on her watch. I'm just sayin' ...

[lumpyspun]

Hillary has announced that she will attend the Scranton St. Patrick's day parade. Scranton (hold The Office wise cracks) holds one of the biggest St. Patrick's day parades in the country and she is taking advantage of it because Lackawanna/Luzerne County will be nice swing counties in this primary. Scranton/Wilkes Barre are smaller towns where Obama needs to do well.

If anyone sees Obama between now and Saturday, tell him to get to the Scranton St. Patrick's Day Parade.

[AgathaX]

Obama should not give up rallies, but he needs to have smaller events where supporters are encouraged to bring parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, whoever raised you, along.

A friend of mine took his rather elderly mother (from Penn.) along to a rally and she came out a supporter. She was Hillary's demographic all the way (low income, female, white, older, rural), but one rally turned her around. I would have loved to take my parents but they feared the standing. And rightfully so, it was no picnic. Smaller events would be physically easier on older people who wanted to attend--shorter quicker lines, closer parking.

And the events should be relatively short and start on time. There should be one introductory speaker that keeps his/her remarks to 10 minutes or less--5 minutes if the event has run more than 30 minutes late. That person should be a good speaker (not Obama good, just good)--elected official or other community leader. And then Obama should keep his own remarks to about 30-35 minutes. If Obama is late, the opening speaker should come out and banter and give updates every 10 minutes. Or even do some impromptu interviews of supporters. What they do is less important than that they do it well and that the audience not be ignored.

Obama is only behind by 11 points and he hasn't started campaigning there yet. He can do this. We can do this. Yes we can!

[timm0]

Like genia, I am a lifelong PA resident from just west of Philly. You miss some incredibly important issues here...


* Rendell is NOT the wildly popular guy that people think he is. If you'd been out here to see the standard practice of lame Dem campaigns over the last 6 years, you'd have seen how many people almost literally glued themselves to rendell. Yard signs for state and federal offices with both fast eddie and their own names... lame. The thing they all had in common is they all LOST.

* So Hillary has access to the state political machine? Wow. That and $1.50 will get you a cup of coffee. Do I need to remind you that Rick Santorum won 2 terms in this state?

* Nutter has been in office for 2 months. He's not all that. I guarantee he's been told who he should be endorsing if he wants SEPTA funding (among other things) from the state budget this year. So don't expect to see Nutter marching down Broad St. banging a big bass drum for HRC... he's probably only doing what he has to do for the good of the city, and no more.

* The well warped Carville citation is (which he sneeringly told me personally was not his original phrase - which is good, because his original phrase is fairly offensive), "PA is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between." The state has many different sub-cultures that need to be addressed to be successful.

* Concert crowd events will fail in the middle of the state. They will succeed tremendously in Philly. He could probably fill Lincoln Field - and when he does, Nutter's endorsement's street cred, if there is any, will be nullified.

* Bubba and HRC will be trying to do the above. They will try to fill a Philly stadium. If Obama doesn't try, he will appear lame. He can't afford to avoid a showdown like that. There will be large numbers of white women flocking in from the suburbs to see HRC. Half the city will be out to see Obama.

* Agree whole-heartedly with the folks who talk here about "fire." In Philly, we pelted Santa Claus in the famous 1960s game at Franklin Field. Was it because we were nasty? Not at all... it's because the guy weighed 125 pounds and wore just the red suit. He was pelted because he didn't try. Philly people want EFFORT. We want to see people put up a fight. Losing is OK but only if you worked your tail off the entire time. No giving up. Obama has to show fire, he has to take all the ugly crap from HRC and shove it back in her face. Minimal sugar-coating - get right to the point. That's not to say he should just hurl invective at her - he needs to lay it all out. Explain how and why she's wrong. We will understand (though our idiot NFL team's management still doesn't believe that).

* Don't know how that will play in Pitt. I think not quite as well. But that is a city that has endured economic horrors for a long, long time. They are a rugged bunch and deserve 'straight in the eyes' economics solutions. Obama can probably win them over if he can convince them that he understands the causes and will work to reverse them. He doesn't need to just explain the Canada NAFTA thing - he needs to pony up and take a stand on trade policy. Until he does that, he will struggle wherever there is a manufacturing [shell] area.

[timm0]

bison1 made an excellent point a few entries down... although s/he may not realize it...

PA has mandatory auto insurance.

Ask us how great that's worked out in giving us affordable protection... ask us how much coverage we end up forgoing because the bills are stifling to family budgets... ask us how much faith we have that insurance companies play fair knowing that we HAVE to pay one of them sooner or later... ask us if we like the fact that these health insurers have pumped most of their money into HRC's campaign (the main answer to that will be, 'I didn't know that').

Of course, the better solution is single payer, but Obama hasn't had the courage to stand up for that yet. But at least he's not a total sellout.

[juevosrancheros]

Timmo,
A thoughtful and very funny collection of points. Thanks for your insight.

[kempis]

The Main Line (affluent, white, Philly-suburban) voters swing from moderate Republican/centrist Democrat. They're wealthy, white, and college-educated, but they're not urban white liberals. Look for Hillary to outperform Obama there unless Obama finds a way to connect with them. A problem, however, is that a lot of those people tend to vote on security, which is not Obama's strong suit.

[Davat]

He will lose Pennsylvania by a significantly larger margin than he did Ohio. The suburban women around Philadelphia will vote heavily for Clinton. This is not a state that has demographics Obama can count on or cultivate. As clearly as we all know he will win in Mississippi, it's that clear that he will lose in PA.

[nellie]

Obama's wins in other states haven't depended on demographics. There are too many examples of places where the demographics you claim Obama can't win—he has won already. The key in PA is doing a good job of campaigning there. I'm not saying it's not a tough state for him. It is.

[timm0]

If Obama doesn't change anything from what he's done in Ohio and Texas, then you may be right. But I seriously doubt that he'll stand pat... which is sort of the point of the blog post, isn't it?

If you're suggesting that he can't win even if he takes much of the advice herein, you are delusional. He took a 20% lead in Texas down to a couple points in 4 weeks. So let's be a little more realistic here.

[Independent voter]

HuffPost's Pick

It seems to me that Obama won Iowa which is 98% caucasian

[robXdion]

These are different kinds of caucasians. Iowa has the Kansasian farmland, salt of the earth type. These are the Archie Bunker types. You got the HuffPost pick because that comment makes the monitors feel good, but it ignores some realities.

[AnninCA]

I agree, Davat. I heard Meet the Press, and I think they really actually have it right. Neither one is going to shake the other one's core base at this point unless something really awful and dramatic happens.

[Thatcher]

10. Drop the tour concerts. -- He toned back on the "concerts" for the states on March 4 - playing "smaller" crowds and doing small round-table discussions. What happened? He lost Ohio, in Texas he lost the primary and won the caucus. Go back to what works ... the concerts.

9. Play the "Pied Piper." -- Clinton didn't win Nevada because of the knocking on doors/pressing hands. She won the "vote" in Nevada, winning the battle, but lost the war by losing in the delegate count. She won the count because of the "long-term" work of AFSCME and a couple of other unions there - Obama didn't get the union support in Nevada until much later in the process. Also, as noted - Hispanic vote cost him.

8. NAFTA. -- Yes - he needs to hit this one out of the park, the Clinton hypocracy, the PM's aide that actually floated Clinton's name in a press meeting, and putting to bed any ambiguity on NAFTA.

7. Health Care. - He needs to move the debate off of Health Care comparisons. Obama needs to state that both of their plans are far and above what we have at this time and then move onto a stronger issue for him. Answer the question you want asked - not the one that was asked.

6. Commander-in-chief. -- agreed.

5. Susan Rice. -- persona non grata.

4. Please Return Lynn Sweet's Phone Calls. -- agreed.

3. Don't Go Negative. -- agreed. However, he needs to call her on everything. Every bit of her resume needs to be vetted now. Not negatively - but honestly.

2. The City of Brotherly Love. -- agreed.

1. The Main Line. -- Obama needs to work the outsider, non-status quo of his profile. "Don't let the establishment tell you who to vote for.", "This election is about you, not them.", "They've got theirs ... it's time that we get ours." Not a class-war - but a call-to-arms - a St. Crispin's Day speech of sorts.

[bison1]

10. Do not drop the tour concerts completely; instead, mix it up. For the college people, the stadiums are incredibly dramatic, and they want the inspirational speech. For some other consitutents, go to the firehouse or door to door. The consitutents are different and how they are reach has to be different.

7. Drop the "Harry and Louise" mailers, but come out with another one pointing out the problems the problems with the Mass. manadate system and the benefits of Obama's plan. I say compare it with mandated car insurance. What are the American's feeling about mandated car insurance?

6. Take away criticism, convene a Foreign Relations Subcommittee hearing.

4. Put Rezko behind him, grant an interview or hold a press conference. Take control of the issue.

[AnninCA]

Nevada is Clinton's win. Get over it.

Nafta is Obama's mess. Get over it.

[robXdion]

Clinton won't/can't win. Get over it.

[GoodbyeKitty]

At least PA is a relatively closed primary, so the Hillary/Limbaugh dirty tricks may not come into play

[jsarets]

Six weeks of eerily dead air till PA. Time to put away pep-rally Obama and bring back professor Obama. You remember, the guy that bored the media to sleep last summer? The media's going to foaming at the mouth for campaign content, and Obama should feed them a steady diet of broccoli. Take it back to the kind of easy-to-swallow pragmatic progressive narrative he did so well in The Audacity of Hope.

The four Es: economy, education, energy, environment.

Talk about the goal of a federalized Iraq with regional governments (i.e. the Biden plan) to emphasize that Democrats have a vision for Iraq beyond simply withdrawing the troops. Doing so alongside a Joe Biden endorsement would be phenomenal, but not absolutely necessary.

The economic cost of the Iraq war. This will be a key argument against John McCain, who is calling on Americans to "sacrifice". Counter this by attaching a huge dollar amount to that sacrifice. The GOP will inevitably try to run ads along the lines of "Americans can't afford Barack Obama". So Obama has to make the case for why Americans can't afford John McCain. If he lands this punch, Obama gets 60% of the vote in November.

Focus more on the direct democracy agenda: Open, transparent government where citizens can monitor spending, evaluate legislation, and participate in policy debates on the web. "Take back your government!".

Faith and family values. Obama can turn one of his vulnerabilities into a strength by speaking from the heart about his faith. How about a nice mid-April photo-op enjoying a much-needed day off the campaign trail with his loving and adorable young family -- perhaps a picnic in the Poconos.

[kirksong]

Excellent post!!! I think you nailed it on the head! Inspiration and hope are wonderful, but need to be followed by concrete ideas shared lucidly. I hope Senator Obama's strategists read your post. I think you are dead on! I am getting tired of the non-sense that the Clinton's keep putting forth which gives them attention and control without substance. Senator Obama needs to take control and get back to eloquently defining the issues and solutions as you suggest. Great post!

[timm0]

Agree with kirksong's assessment of your comment... combine your menu with Rod's (with any conflicts deferring to your suggestions) and Obama can win - or at least make it a nail-biter.

[AnninCA]

I think Rezko pretty much has blown "transparency" out. I think he can't really focus on his accomplishments. He obviously hasn't even served a term in the Senate. I think he can't honestly talk much more about unifying. He failed miserably to unify this party. I think he's ill-at-ease talking about issues, because he's so outgunned by her on that level.

So I agree in one sence. He's left with nothing much more than nagging and whining for the rest of the campaign.

[danyll]

Can you get over Rezko? A friend sold him land at a discount, he didn't get the discount in return for political favors....move on already.