Steve Ballmer Is Carnac The Magnificent

18 months ago in a USA Today interview, Steve Ballmer, head of Microsoft, proclaimed the following when asked about the iPhone: "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."

This week Gartner Reseach released a report on Smartphone Operating System market share. Symbian has a 49% share of the OS market, RIMM has 16%, Mac OSX (iPhone) has 13%, and Microsoft Windows Mobile has 11% market share.

What's especially notable is the percentage yearly growth of each OS on smartphones. Symbian is down 12%. RIMM is up 87%. Microsoft is down 3%.

Mac OSX (iPhone) is up 327%.

Doh! Maybe there is a chance the iPhone will get "significant market share."

The phrase "cognitive dissonance" comes to mind when you compare Ballmer's remarks with the reality of the market. Combine this with his cheerleading for the rousing failure that is Vista OS (Microsoft boss Steve Ballmer says Vista could be one of the company's "all-time most successful products"), and his denial of the reality of the Google threat ("Google's not a real company. It's a house of cards"), and you can understand why the company is floundering. Microsoft has, ironically, turned into IBM circa 1980. And we wonder why Bill Gates retired.

Ten years ago Microsoft stock was $33 per share. Today it is $19. That's a return to shareholders of -40%. Ten years ago Apple stock was $8. Today it is $91. That's a return, um, higher than -40%.

One last Ballmer quote, "I think our leadership team is a highly accountable leadership team." If it is, Mr. Ballmer, then after decimating shareholder wealth as you have, the honorable thing to do is clear. Just please don't go to work at an American car company.

Follow Ron Galloway on Twitter: www.twitter.com/rongalloway

Comments

[Rule Of Law]

Ballmer and his ilk feel they can (and they often do) effect reality with their pronouncements. It's the whole self-fulfilling thing. For example, I see plenty of rice on my store shelves today---where's that shortage again?

Microsoft is at war with Apple, even after all these years and will miss no opportunity to malign them. This, however, just makes them look stupid.

[Samalabear]

Microsoft should do what IBM has managed to do -- find a niche and be really good about it. In other words, get their heads out of the sand and fix Vista, period. I am so glad that we build our own computers and have not been forced into Vista. IBM first big screw-up was then they lost their standard typewriter business to Japanese competitors that did a much, much better job at building electronic typewriters -- the forerunners to word processors. I was one of the victims of the IBM Electronic 65 and 75 debaucle. Then IBMs second mistake was the PC miscalculation. IBM, as far as I know, is a successful company today, albeit not a king of the universe anymore -- and that's fine. Microsoft is too busy trying to be No. 1 at everything. The way they're going they will be No. 1 at nothing -- and, as we know, nothing is too big to fail in this economy. They should also stop the outsourcing, ditch the H1B visa mess, hire skilled Americans (they are out there) and concentrate on their strongest area and make it the best they can.

[LeftRight]

Steve appears to be a much better Senior Vice President in charge of than a CEO! Back in the 90s when my father was working for them they were still a good company that had some issues, but now....

And for what it's worth, I don't think that Bill Gates retired because Microsoft turned into IBM in 1980, I think that Microsoft turned into IBM in 1980 because Bill Gates retired!