Whoever wins Florida in November will probably be the next president of the United States!
That's the overwhelming opinion expressed by the Sunshine State media, political insiders, analysts -- even those many angry Democrats, still fuming over the national party's refusal to seat delegates in time to select the nominee.
Why else would Sen. John McCain continually float the name of Gov. Charlie Crist, the little-known Southern moderate, as his vice president?
Why else would both Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama spend most of the final week of May in Florida, when there are primaries elsewhere, and when the State may not even have a say in selecting the nominee because it held a primary 7 days in advance of party rules.
Florida, with 27 electoral votes, is the fourth-largest state in the nation and the only one of the top four in population considered a swing state -- neither red nor blue. The others - California and New York for the Democrats and Texas for the GOP -- are considered hardly much of contests. That's why!
The political importance of Florida once again (remember 2000 and the hanging chads?) is touted by local media.
"Crist, Florida Key for McCain" was the lead story of Sunday's Miami Herald, explaining that, whether or not the governor "ends up on the ticket, the Republican presidential candidate needs him" to win the State in November.
The Fort-Lauderdale based Sun-Sentinel headlined on page one: (Rep. Robert) "Wexler's Clout Is Key for Obama," referring to the South Florida's Congressman's backing to help the potential Democratic nominee to win over Jewish voters, who are believed to be 10 percent of those casting ballots in Florida in November.
The Orlando Sentinel was more general in its page one coverage: "Middle Class Losing Its Grip on the American Dream," it said, politicizing the "tough times" caused by the economic slowdown, particularly the mortgage crisis.
The Sunday editorials also were reminders of the full-fledged election season, ending a week of almost non-stop political coverage by newspapers and local television from Miami to Tallahassee. Senator Obama campaigned on the Florida West Coast, in Miami -- a vote-rich Cuban-American population center, and in the Boca-Raton-Fort Lauderdale area, where elderly voters make up for the state's most Democratic constituency. So did Sen. Clinton, who brought out huge crowds from the silver-haired condo communities in the tri-county area of South Florida. And, McCain made another of his frequent Florida visits, this time before the Cuban-American Foundation in Miami, and a fundraising expedition.
The almost constant political news on the airwaves, in print media and on the Internet stimulated conversation from the liberal Florida Keys to the conservative Gulf Coast Panhandle, even at social gatherings during Memorial Day..
One lady -- flipping hamburgers at a 55-and-over barbecue in suburban Weston -- admits to leaning towards the McCain campaign. She says it was the televised remarks of Obama's former pastor which caused her shift in allegiance, but went on to say, that if Clinton were on the Democratic ticket "then I might return to the fold."
Much of the frustration with pre-November politics comes from the Democrats, particularly aimed at the National Committee's bungling of the Florida primary results. Florida was supposed to get 211 delegate votes at the Aug. 25-28 convention in Denver, but the DNC says it won't settle seating the Florida delegation until its Credentials Committee meeting in Washington D.C. on May 31. Initial public pronouncements say it may give Florida l/2 vote per delegate, which would have no impact on the nomination process. Clinton is urging the Credentials Committee to give Florida its rightful 100 percent delegation strength, while Obama's representatives say Florida should be punished for breaking party rules. Party Chief Howard Dean has said Florida -- which was won handily by Clinton -- will be seated once the two candidates are in agreement, but there is a general feeling that he is just delaying a decision until all the primaries are over on June 3 or until a nominee is selected by the other 48 States (without Florida and Michigan, which also broke party rules).
The "winning" number of delegate votes has been publicized by the media as 2,025 excluding Florida and Michigan. With Florida and Michigan in the mix, a nominee would need 2,209 votes at the convention.
"We will not be satisfied with one-half a vote," says delegate Barbara Effman, president of the West Broward Democratic club, the largest Dem-club in Florida. "Our vote is worth just as much as any other in the 50 United States."
Effman, a Clinton supporter, and Percy Johnson, an Obama delegate, joined with State Sen. Steve Geller and filed a federal lawsuit last week, asking the court to recognize the more than 1.75 million Democratic voters who went to the polls in January and to have their votes counted in selecting the nominee. They seem to represent a growing chorus indicating that the one-half vote solution would be met with stiff opposition A separate lawsuit filed by Tampa activist Victor DiMaio is pending.
Although the Democratic National Committee won't meet until May 31, most observers are now saying the DNC will probably not want to antagonize Floridians any further and may relent by seating the entire Florida delegation "in some manner."
The Republican Party stripped its Florida delegation by 50 percent, but with McCain already anointed to carry the GOP banner, it didn't matter much. Counting Florida for the Dems could be an entirely different matter. Although DNC Chief Dean has put the controversy up to the two candidates, some Clinton delegates -- despite signing pledges to support the eventual nominee -- say that if Obama wins the nomination, he must select Clinton as his running mate "or face a shellacking."
In addition, Florida Democrats have internal problems which must be solved. The final meeting to choose Florida delegates left bruised feelings when leaders of the Gay/Lesbian alliance -- representatives of a huge voting bloc in South Florida -- complained that they were only given half of the promised slots despite "affirmative action standards."
GLBT leader Michael Albetta -- a major voice in party politics -- admittedly was unhappy with the delegate allocation, and so were delegate-hopefuls representing the elderly and war veterans. A special meeting has been called for June 14 (the same day of the fundraising Jefferson-Jackson State Dinner) in Hollywood to organize a Veterans Caucus to help ease the anger.
Despite opposition to the half-vote proposal, the pending lawsuits and general uneasiness over Florida convention prospects, superdelegate Jon Ausman of Tallahassee will appeal to the DNC Friday-- still time, he says, to keep Florida in play for the general election. His proposal, he explained, could eventually give the state its full 211 delegates, but would start with Florida getting half-votes per delegate and then appealing to the Convention Credentials Committee for the remaining portion of delegates "to bring us up to 211 votes." However, unless the DNC acts prior to June 3 (when all the primaries will be over), the nominee could be selected without Florida and Michigan. Most activists say that Ausman's plan is too little, too late.
Without "100 percent recognition now and without being part of the nomination process," some are saying they will organize a convention floor fight.
Floridians going to the Democratic convention say that Chairman Dean must recognize every Florida vote before a nominee is named, noting each day of delay is hurting the party. Delegates continue to be irate, not only because no one knows how their power will eventually be allocated, but because the DNC even refuses to designate a hotel for them, creating travel plan difficulties.
'This is childish," says a delegate.
