Florida Primary Expected To Shape Super Tuesday Contests

Egged on by the media and pundits, Florida politicos are convinced that the state's multi-million population - part old south, part northeastern transplants, with a number of active ethnic communities - will be crucial in shaping the presidential contests that follow the state's January 29th primary.

"If there is one sure thing about Florida, it's its diversity," says Democratic legislative candidate Mark LaFontaine, "and, what we do here, will affect the next big round of voting nationally."

The Democratic contest pits Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards in a battle for some pre-Super Tuesday mo'. While Clinton and Obama have deep pockets and are ready to launch a media blitz, John Edwards is enjoying a recent rush of supporters calling him 'the underdog we can trust.'

In the Republican field Mayor Rudy Giuliani is making his "Big State" stand against primary/caucus winners Sen. John McCain, Gov. Mitt Romney, and Gov. Mike Huckabee, with Rep. Ron Paul siphoning off just enough votes to hurt or help one of the front-runners. Former Sen. Fred Thompson -- on the ballot -- has yet to be spotted.

Between the winners and losers are some 11 million citizens eligible to vote Jan. 29, according to the Secretary of State's office in Tallahassee. This figure may not reflect the record number of absentee ballots waiting to be counted in what Floridians are hoping will be a hanging-chad-free election in the nation's fourth largest state. The high-end hope is for a 50 per cent turnout.

"We don't want to repeat 2000," says one state worker, noting that will probably not happen now that Katherine Harris will no longer be in charge of counting the ballots.

What Floridians can expect is a barrage of Internet campaigning, e-mails galore, TV ads worth several millions of dollars to the networks and cable companies, and invitations to attend fundraisers to bolster campaign kitties.

GOP candidates are expected to pander on issues like Cuba, the Everglades, and differentiating themselves from other party candidates on immigration, taxation, and faith.

Democratic surrogates and some candidates fundraise, while lashing out at President Bush and V.P. Dick Cheney, the state of the economy, the evil of torture, explaining who is more pro-Israel, who has the experience needed to stand head to head with Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and who has more respect for the memory of Dr. Martin Luther King.

"It should be a free-for-all," says Fort Lauderdale-based playwright and cultural activist Tony Finstrom.

Here is a bird's-eye view as of today:

DEMOCRATS

Because of a broken pledge by Florida not to hold a primary before Feb. 5 (and even though it was the Republican-dominated legislature that set the date), and mindful of the Democratic National Committee's desire to punish the Sunshine State, Clinton, Edwards and Obama said they will not campaign. But the DNC rules say nothing about raising money. Clinton has set up several events for Jan. 27. Obama has planned three fundraising parties the Miami area.

Meanwhile, Edwards supporters made a public appeal for the former North Carolina senator to come to Florida, or at least to send his wife Elizabeth to speak and raise funds. Mrs. Edwards has made trips to Florida but most have been charity events for cancer research.

Candidates could not be present to campaign during Martin Luther King parades, but there was no DNC ban on using life-size cardboard cutouts. Obama supporters in the Liberty City area of Miami used the cutout on a float that urged the parade audience to follow it to the Caleb Center Library, one of Miami's designated early voting locations.

"Our time for change has come. The people of Liberty City can vote early during the parade on MLK Day," said Dave Patlak, a retired military officer. "Barack Obama is the change we can believe in."

Edwards supporters passed out one-page leaflets - a copy of a recent speech on the legacy of MLK. "This will be John Edwards' chance to show the state and the nation how he can win - even without the money from the big lobbyists who have given to Clinton and Obama," said supporter Larry Thorson, one of the leaders organizing an unofficial Edwards organization in Florida.

Clinton supporters seem to be everywhere, at almost every possible community meeting or political gathering.

The only event in which all three will get equal visibility without paying for it with broadcast advertising dollars may be on Jan. 27 at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, where a nationally televised debate on MSNBC is planned.

Because of the no-campaigning-in-Florida pledge by the Dems, the university has posted information on the Jan. 27 debate as "unconfirmed." However, because it is nationally televised and not just beamed to Florida, the candidates are expected to participate. In fact, they are scheduling "non-campaign" events around the January date, including fund-raising parties in private homes without media present.

More and more, Democrats are seeing the possibility of a brokered convention, if the current delegate strength, continues to be split.

As is appropriate for the chairman of the Broward Democratic Executive Committee, the popular Mitch Caeser -- also a DNC member -- is "uncommitted" to any candidate, much to the chagrin of local voters who are looking for guidance on which of the "Big Three" they should support in the primary.

REPUBLICANS

The GOP will get equal treatment from MSNBC with a debate scheduled at the same location in Boca Raton on Jan. 24 -- a few days earlier than the Democrats.

But the Republicans -- only taking a 50 per cent loss in delegate strength for the early primary date --- are already camping out on the Peninsula to win the respect and vote of citizens. In Florida, there is no crossover voting, nor can independents vote as in the four early caucus/primary States.

Giuliani has practically made Florida his home for the past few weeks, criss-crossing the state with his anti-terrorism rhetoric, attending parades, and using his influence with law enforcement and firefighters to remind voters of his 9/11 leadership.

John McCain -- looking once again, as he did in South Carolina, for support from the state's many veterans and military -- flew into Florida following his success in South Carolina where he found Gov. Romney already in Jacksonville, using the local stage to trumpet his " gold medals" in Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada, and his "two silvers" in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Gov. Huckabee arrived after a side trip to Georgia to celebrate Martin Luther King Day, applauding his endorsement by several Cuban-American conservative legislators from the Miami area.

Florida's junior senator Mel Martinez got embarrassing headlines when he got the word from cash-heavy donors in Florida (who are supporting Giuliani) that he should remain neutral instead of endorsing McCain, or Martinez's campaign funds would dry up quickly. Martinez must run for re-election in two years and several prominent Democrats are ready to take him on.

Many of the sightings in South Florida occurred in Westchester, a heavily Cuban-American suburb of Miami, where a slew of Ron Paul lawn signs popped up this past weekend in what looked like an organized get-the-signs-on-the-lawn campaign.

Comments

[JackWOrf]

Curiously, for Democrats, the Convention could wind up being a replay of 2000. Perhaps even with Supreme Court involvement.

Hilary won Michigan and is trending to win big in Florida, the nations 4th most populous state. If Obama wins the nomination by ignoring Florida, the fight could become savage and actually rip the party to shreds.

As a Florida Democrat, I have been FURIOUS from the start about this whole idiotic DISENFRANCHISEMENT. Who the F-word is the DNC to tell ME that I can not vote???

Where on earth do the dnc get the RIGHT to PUNISH Florida voters? The scheduling of voting day is NOT something that Florida voters have anything to do with.

It is NONE OF MY CONCERN that the idiots in the DNC can not communicate with our local politicians about when to schedule the vote. It is totally UNFAIR and UNCONSTITUTIONAL that us Floridians should be disenfranchised because Democratic party officials have not yet learned to play well with each other.

Our job as Florida voters is to go to the polls and vote when the vote is scheduled.

And of course, the DNC is TOTALLY RETARDED to be antagonizing Democratic voters in such critical swing states as Florida and Michigan with HUGE amounts of electoral votes.

I am further pleased with Hilary that she is breaking this STUPID pledge, and further annoyed with Obama for upholding the disenfranchisement of Florida voters.

Some "reformer" Obama is!!! He stands up 4-square for DISENFRANCHISING anybody who votes against him!!! What a PHONY!!!

If Obama doesn't give a (s-word) about 26 million people's right to vote, then what DOES he care about???

Yes, this could very well go to the (f-word)ing Supreme Court.

To add fuel to the fire, it was BLACK Donna Brazile's idea. Was she helping out black Obama? I know that I sound like a big bad racist, but they DO stick together.

And yes, they ARE Fascists!!! Depriving Floridians and Michigonians of the primary vote is FASCISM!!! I don't give a F-WORD about the DNC's MORONIC RULES!!!

[Misanthrope0]

Cheater Romney.

http://www.ronpaulwarroom.com/?p=2969

[mamacat]

I don't understand why the DNC isn't going to count the Florida vote in the primaries, if, as mentioned in the blog, it was the Republican legislature that set the date. And the reasoning for this is?
It would be nice to see Giulani drop out next. He really seems to be slimey. We don't need another Bush in office.

[ConcernAmerican]

Guilliani is DOA in Florida, McCain & Romney is ahead of him.

[Pdubya]

ron paul has a lot of support in north gainesville, jacksonville, orlando, tampa, st. pete and ft lauderdale.

judy has his too, but not sure if he can take first....but is what he needs to continue.

(meanwhile...ron paul is doing well in louisiana). florida getting split...

haha. good to have a smart candidate for a change.

[UncleDave]

Why does Floriduh-where I live-continue to act like a bunch of doofusses? The Dems need this state in the General election and act like they can just ignore us.How to loose another election 101.

[speakingtruth2power]

I don't think another state's vote affects mine or many others. I'm sorry the field has thinned so quickly but most of all, I'm pissed that the MSM has been so proactive in these decisions WE should be making.

[JJinWI]

Didn't you get the memo? Media blackout of Ron Paul.... shhhhhhhushhhhhh. You're not supposed
to talk about him.

[sandyfeets]

I live in Florida where, just as in 2000, my Democratic vote won't count. Isn't it typical of the national committees that they won't allow my vote to play a part in the election nor will the candidates campaign here, however they WILL allow fundraising to go on. Always about money, not the people. As far as I'm concerned, no vote, no money, and after my vote hasn't been counted, I will change my party affiliation to Independent. I'm so sick of politics as usual.

[tkk]

Clinton is way out ahead in Florida! Yeaaaaah! Go Hil!

[WilliamWallace]

Go get 'em, Senator Edwards.

[EyeWantOneNation]

The DNC says the Democrats cannot campaign in the state of Florida...but they can appear at fundraisers, and participate in the debate; since it's nationally televised.

How much sense does THAT make ????