Obama: From "Shouldn't" to "Did"

"Obama should be running away with this," so said the conventional wisdom. Economic crisis, an unpopular president, two on-going wars, "should" have placed the Democratic nominee 10 or 20 points ahead in the national polls. Instead, so the story went, Obama's race, his pastor, his inexperience were dragging the Democrats dangerously close to the wire. McCain, on the other hand, was "saving" the Republican Party by outperforming the brand through his reputation as an outsider, an independent, a "maverick."

The results tell a different story. We see in state after state Obama outperforming other Democratic races there. Oregon and Minnesota saw 10 point margins for Obama, but the Senate races are tied neck and neck with likely Republican victories. Voters in massive numbers voted Democratic at the top of the ticket to switch Republican as they moved down. Obama elevated the Democratic brand, not dragged it down.

The sentiment reveals how their perspective mismatches reality. They saw the Democratic brand as strong, in good shape and the clear 'natural' preference of the American people. They saw Obama as deviating from the Democratic norm, a risk, and a light weight. Yet, Democrats, as in every election cycle, fell short of their expectations, and Obama exceeded them.

They thought that John Kerry, with his war decorations as someone who "should" have beaten George Bush. He didn't. They thought that Hillary Clinton, with the unmatched institutional support and name recognition, "should" have won the Democratic party nomination. She didn't.

This is not because they wanted Clinton or Kerry to win -- some of whom certainly did -- but because they believed that American politics operates around a certain set of rules which can be used to predict what "should" and "shouldn't" happen. They say public opinion polls should be followed at the expense of long-term message. That American swing voters will support war heros (despite the fact Bob Dole and John Kerry lost). That minorities represent risks. That manufactured scandal trumps the inadequacies of any Republican candidate. That there are only a few states worth showing up to and only a few voters worth talking to. That voters respond only to empty slogans and are unmoved by argument and debate. They see these rules as static and voters as pre-programmed machines.

It is time to throw out the old playbook for one simple reason. It was wrong. What "should" have happened isn't what happened. Obama wasn't your average Democratic candidate, then again, America isn't your average country either.

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