Battle For The West: Latino Voters Remake the Electoral Map

A study published earlier this month by the William C. Velasquez Institute looked at statewide polling data and determined that, if the election were held today, "Latino voters would provide the margin of victory for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico."

Although most state and national polls have declared for weeks now that these key western states are leaning toward Obama, the Velasquez report found that, minus Latino voters, Obama's advantage would disappear or fall into the margin of error.

Colorado

without Latino voters: Obama 44.24 percent, McCain 42.41 percent
with Latino voters: Obama 51 percent, McCain 45 percent

Nevada

without: Obama 42.4 percent, McCain 40.7 percent
with: Obama 50 percent, McCain 43 percent

New Mexico (since 38 percent of eligible voters in the state are Latino, removing them has the most dramatic swing)

without: Obama 30.6 percent, McCain 34.6 percent
with: Obama 54 percent, McCain 44 percent

The study shows the role Latino voters can and do play in tight elections and explains why both campaigns have actively targeted Latinos this year.

A Denver naturalization ceremony this summer

Yet the full weight of Latino numbers aren't reflected at the polls today in part because a significant percentage of Latinos are either too young to vote or not citizens. Earlier this year, the Pew Hispanic Center produced state by state snapshots that illustrated this point. In Colorado, Hispanics account for 20 percent of the total population but only 12 percent of eligible voters. In Nevada, Hispanics account for 24 percent of the population and 12 percent of eligible voters. For New Mexico, the figures are 45 and 38 percent, respectively.

Efforts have been made to naturalize eligible non-citizens and get them to vote, but not by the political parties. As part of the News21 project, I looked at the issue of citizenship and voting over the summer. There are an estimated 8.25 million legal permanent residents eligible for citizenship nationwide, and most are Latino. But since the application and approval period can take a year or longer, political expediency means political parties don't take up the cause and non-profits and immigrants' rights groups have to help people through the process.

"The parties just won't invest in naturalization because it's too distant from voting," Louis DeSipio, chair of the Chicano/Latino Studies department at the University of California, Irvine, told me in an interview earlier this year.

DeSipio studies the impact of naturalization on the Latino electorate, and he believes the growing Latino population -- both native born and naturalized citizens -- will continue to reshape politics in states with significant numbers of Latinos.

"The naturalized may or may not play a particularly important role in the 2008 election, but they certainly will in 2012 and 2016 and 2020. It's just then we won't think of them as naturalized any more, they'll just be part of the Latino electorate," DeSipio said.

Since Latinos overwhelmingly favor Democrats, Republicans have cause for concern, but as with most demographic shifts, the growing influence of Latinos is a slow process. Before becoming eligible for citizenship, one must be a legal permanent resident for 5 years, and the millions of people in this country illegally aren't in the queue.

But what if the next president enacts an amnesty program similar to the one in the 1980's that many credit with turning California permanently blue? Some Republicans fear a Democrat in the White House could do in one term what it might take the ebbs and flows of demographic shifts decades to accomplish: a permanent Democratic majority in the West.

Pat Buchanan did some crystal ball gazing in his latest column, and pronounced the West dead to future GOP presidential candidates should Obama take the White House. He sees the "triumvirate of Obama-Pelosi-Reid" pushing through swift amnesty for illegal aliens followed by citizenship campaigns and voter registration drives that would churn out eager Democratic voters.

"This will mean that Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona will soon move out of reach for GOP presidential candidates, as has California," Buchanan writes.

Given the anti-Republican wave sweeping the nation, it's no wonder that the western swing states are tilting toward Obama this cycle, but Buchanan's fear runs deeper: that they won't swing back if current non-citizens are enfranchised by a Democratic president.

Comments

[Softnsweet]

I work with Latinos and they are so good to me. I am still trying to find out why people say they are racist.

[vicenteduq]

Mr Ryan Rivera :

Thanks for excellent article, this is very informative.

I find it very sad that some people are afraid of latinos or oppose their causes with such heat.

I have read that due to the economic crisis more latinos have abandoned the USA than have entered the country.

This also holds true for Illegal Immigrants. They are returning without enforcement. Just economic realities.

Continue the cause of researching these demographic and political phenomenons.

http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/

http://milenials.blogspot.com/


Vicente Duque

[BluePrideSMW]

I hope and expect that much of the ol' south will experience this change, too. With influx of Hispanic, Northerners and INFORMATION those bastions of dixiecrat states must fall.

Abraham, Martin & John...very sweet, soulful version:
http://current.com/items/89450598_obama_08_abraham_martin_john

[Linda51]

Que Viva La Raza!

Arriba con mi gente. Voten por Obama y temprano.

Vote, Vote, Vote. Vote early if you can, but VOTE!

[lmt27]

I am glad that Latinos and Hispanics are getting to the polls. However, as far as the pundits labeling them as 'remaking the electoral map' well, lets see according to the pundits, during the primaries it was going to be the white females who would decide the election, then it was the blue collar white male, then the undecided voters, and now all hope is pending on the hispanics and latinos. I say bull no one ethnic group can pull an election. All Americans--white, black, asian, latino, hispanic and all ethnicities inbetween will decide who wins this election--and you see all these groups at Obama rallies. Now all we have to do is vote!!!

[gretchenart]

At least half of provisional ballots never get counted--typically the Democratic ones!

[trendier]

Viva la Raza!

[harriettubman]

I hope they're all legal.

[cacique88]

I was happy to see this post. Little is said about the Latino vote in the General election by the main stream media. When the history books are written this 08 election will be the turning point in US elections precisely because Latinos did come out to vote and voted to punish the GOP with its angry zenophobic anti -immigrant rant of the Tancredos, the Dobbs and the Buchanans of the far right.

I just hope that enough Latinos come out to vote in Arizona where the polls are showing Obama pulling within 2 points (Merrill-ASU poll). It would be great to defeat McCain in his own home state. Already, the McCain Campaign is directing resources with robocalls and additional ad purchases that they certainly had not planned for.

Here in California it looks like Obama will get more than 60% of the vote!!!

[Emlyn]

I have a friend who has a Mexican-born sister in law. She became a citizen earlier this year. Not understanding that you had to register to vote, she wanted my friend to take her to vote in the primary. She was told she couldn't vote. She was very upset. Her sister in law got the registration materials and had her register. She is taking her on November 4 to vote for Obama.

[Hansyp]

This Latina and her whole family is voting for Obama in the state of Florida. I am calling all my latino friends and they are all voting for Obama. Latinos will help Obama win the White House.

[conductrix]

"the millions of people in this country illegally aren't in the queue." Maybe not, but their kids sure as heck are. I myself registered many young Hispanics of voting age, and the stats say that 35,000 Hispanics turn voting age EVERY MONTH. This is why as a new member of my local Democratic Party, I'm creating a bridge between us and the ever-growing Hispanic voting populace.

Viva Obama!

[obamavoter08]

I LOVE LATINOS!!!!!
LET'S KEEP WORKING HARD FOR OBAMA WE CAN'T LET UP FOR A DAY,OBAMA WILL BE THE UNDERDOG UNTIL HE'S SITTING IN THE WHIT HOUSE!!!!!!!

[peacegurl48]

Viva Obama y Obamanos! Si se puede! Esperanza y Cambio

[psychmaj323]

GO LATINOS! WHOO!