RENO, Nev. -- Heidi B. Smith, chairwoman of the Washoe County Republican party, flips through a stack of emails and phone messages she's received about voter registration errors -- people who registered as Republicans but are showing up as Democrats, misspelled names, bad addresses -- when the phone rings. It's a call that has seemed more and more likely as the 2008 campaign wore on. A reporter from a local paper wants a comment on the news that Democratic party registration outnumbers Republican registration in Washoe County for the first time since 1978.
"Let's see how they vote," Smith tells the reporter, before asking, "Do those numbers include 17-year-olds?"
Smith thinks Democratic numbers are inflated and has vowed to pore over the final list of new voters once the country registrar processes last-minute registrations. She points to registration scandals trumpeted in banner headlines across the country -- people registering multiple times, Mickey Mouse signing up to vote in Florida, the ACORN raid last week in Las Vegas -- and vows to weed out any NFL player names or other suspicious registrants from her local rolls.
"If I were a Republican, I'd be particularly vigilant," said Amy Curtis-Webber, executive director of the Washoe County Democratic Party. Not because she sees anything alarming about the flood of new registrations, but because Republicans have nothing else to cling to in the county-wide shift toward Democrats. "If we leverage this advantage, we can swing the state," she said.
A tale of two parties: Washoe County GOP Chairwoman Heidi B. Smith watched over by Reagan; Democratic Party Executive Director Amy Curtis-Webber by the Kennedys.
As of Monday afternoon, Nevada's second most populous county had about 950 more registered Democrats than Republicans, according to Dan Burk, registrar for Washoe County. "We've seen some [bad registrations], but it's relatively rare," said Burk, adding that that as a percentage of total new applications, the number of questionable registrations is nothing out of the ordinary.
In 2004, George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 21,500 votes in Nevada, carrying every county except Clark County. In some rural areas, Bush beat Kerry by a factor greater than 3-to-1, but since Clark County accounted for 66 percent of all votes cast, many believe Bush owes his victory in the state to Washoe. Bush's margin in Washoe, where 19 percent of Nevada voters cast their ballots, was his smallest in the state, winning 51 percent of votes to Kerry's 47 percent.
"If Kerry had carried this county, he would have carried Nevada," said Curtis-Weber. And with Nevada, he would have won the White House.
"Washoe county plus the rurals canceled out Clark County," said Eric Herzik, chair of the political science department at the University of Nevada, Reno. In Herzik's estimation, Obama needs to flip Washoe, perform better in the rural areas, or improve the notoriously low turnout in heavily-Democratic Clark County. "If any of those factors change, Obama wins Nevada," he said.
Statewide, Obama is attacking on all three of those fronts. The campaign has 8 offices in Clark County, Obama has made 3 stops in rural Elko where Bush won 4-to-1, his best margin in the state, and the staff and volunteers in Washoe are making sure the swing county swings their way.
The current shift toward Democrats in Washoe "underscores the fact that people think this country is on the wrong track and are ready for something new," said Jeff Giertz, deputy communications director of Obama's campaign in Nevada.
But perhaps more critical to their success in Washoe is the excitement and commitment exhibited by Obama supporters compared with McCain supporters.
I meet two Reno Republicans, veteran volunteers of campaigns going back more than two decades, in the small parking lot that separates the McCain's Reno campaign headquarters from the Washoe County GOP office in a vacancy-strewn strip mall in the shadow of the Atlantis casino.
"I think most Republicans in Nevada are not in love with McCain the way the Obama people love Obama," said Marilyn Schenk, who this election cycle is volunteering with the party but not the McCain campaign.
Schenk was among the 51 percent of voters in the state to caucus for Mitt Romney in January, and said she cried for two days when Romney withdrew from the campaign. McCain came in third, with 12.75 percent of the votes, behind second-place finisher Ron Paul.
"It's hard to fake a love for a candidate," adds Joannah Schumacher, a friend of Schenk's who originally supported Ron Paul. Both women will vote for McCain and continue to volunteer for the party, but neither seems particularly excited about their candidate.
Republican mascots: Elephants and O'Reilly.
Rather than talk about what they like about McCain, most of our conversation centers on what they don't like about Obama, the sorry state of the mainstream media, and their critique of young voters "excited about voting but who lack the knowledge to vote wisely."
On the last point, which sounds like a critique of Obama's large lead among young voters, the women say they are less concerned with ideological leanings than the failure of schools and parents to teach their kids to learn about the issues, the political process, and how to think critically for themselves.
Schenk, who came from a Democratic union home, thinks her 26-year-old daughter is making an informed decision in choosing Obama, even though she doesn't agree with it, because Schenk made sure to talk about politics and world events at the dinner table. She's skeptical that all of Obama's young supporters' decisions are equally reasoned.
Both women seem genuinely excited by the electoral process and the power of American democracy, but not so much for McCain.
In Obama's campaign office across town, it's another story.
The license plates on display in the parking lot -- Nevada, California, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts -- show the distance some supporters are willing to go for their candidate. Inside, there are more volunteers than phones, and a number of people are hand-writing letters to undecided voters about why they like Obama.
Obama volunteer Katy Lloyd is calling supporters looking for volunteers willing to walk precincts the next few weeks. She spent most of the day canvassing, knocking on about 50 doors, about 10 of which were answered. Like volunteers on both campaigns, Katy urged people to vote now. Early voting in the state begins on Saturday, and some are estimating early voting may account for anywhere from 50 percent to 80 percent of turnout in parts of the state.
Obama volunteers man the phones in Reno.
Lloyd wanted to volunteer for Obama early on, but the Seattle resident realized her efforts would be relatively insignificant in "dark blue" Washington state. But after looking at electoral maps -- she says FiveThirtyEight.com is a favorite website -- she saw she could make a difference in Nevada. "I had some extra airline miles... and could stay with a friend from college who lives in Reno," she thought after reading how close the race was shaping up in Washoe, so she hopped on a plane for a week of campaigning.
Herzik, the political science professor, said the momentum and ground-level supporter all favor Obama. Political Science 101 shows that personal contact equals higher turnout, he said. As evidence of the Obama camp's efforts, he noted the experience of his two under-25 year old sons.
"Both are registered Republicans and have been contacted 3 times by Obama supporters" targeting young voters, Herzik said. Neither has been contacted by McCain supporters.
At the county registrar's office Tuesday morning, a number of people express similar experiences.
Kahea, 28, is one of the first people out of the registrar's office. A recent transplant from Hawaii, she says she likes Obama but has avoided his supporters. Since her fiance told the Obama campaign he was backing the Illinois senator, "they come, and they call, and they email," Kahea said, to the point of becoming annoying. She thought she missed the deadline to register, but last weekend, when she inadvertently answered a canvasser's knock at the door, she was informed she could still register to vote in person at the registrar's office and here she is at 8:30 a.m.
Mario Zamora, 27, is registering to vote for the first time. Zamora is a Latino who grew up in Los Angeles and says he's looking for change, so I'm surprised when he says he's a McCain supporter. Obama supporters have contacted him numerous times and they "annoy the hell out of me," he says. McCain supporters, on the other hand, "think I'm Mexican and [therefore] must be voting for Obama," surmises Zamora in an attempt to explain why he had to contact them to get more information about the candidate.
Not all people at the county registrar on the last day to register to vote are procrastinators.
Dave has lived in Reno for 20 years and never voted for a Democrat. He's registered to vote, but for some reason his affiliation shows up as Non-Partisan, so he drove down to the registrar's office to be counted as a Republican. "It's a badge I want to wear," he said. "These people that are switching parties [to the Democratic party], give it a year and they'll be hating life." Dave owns a mortgage company and worries about the economy, but he thinks "it'll be a lot tougher with Obama in office."
Jack is a Democrat who has called Reno home for three decades. Since it was the last day to register, and "this is a big election," he says he came down just to double check his registration. A retiree living on social security, health care and the economy are the issues he's concerned about. He'll be out "first thing Saturday morning" when early voting begins "to make sure I get my vote in," he said.
An hour before registration closed in Washoe County.
At 8:00 p.m., with just an hour until registration closes, a line still snakes out of the registrar's office. If the two dozen or so people I talked to at the registrar's office are a fair reflection of the county, the Democrats' slightest of edges appears to be real, but nothing to take to the bank.
The Democratic Party's Curtis-Weber said she remains "cautiously optimistic" and believes that multiple contacts will ensure high turnout.
Smith, on the GOP side, agrees that this election will turn on each campaign's get out the vote effort. "When you clear out the deadwood [of invalid registrations], it's basically even on each side," she said. Smith remains unconvinced that Democrats will be able to get all their new supporters to the polls, but is confident that the Republicans can mobilize their supporters as the election nears.
Republicans have counted on a 72-hour strategy to mobilize the base that has been effective the last two elections, Herzik said. The thinking goes "it's not the contact in October that counts, it's what happens the last 72 hours," he explained.
But with the rise of Democratic registrants and Obama partisans out in full force for weeks and months ahead of the election, the base might no longer be enough for Washoe Republicans.
----
