President Obama has finally announced the troop surge in Afghanistan. It was already an open secret and the final tally of troops coincided with the estimates put forward by defense experts and political commentators. The preliminary withdrawal date of 2011, however, was a surprise for many people. Obama mentioned Pakistan in his speech but only in passing remarks. It appears that he is still unclear of the aspirations of Pakistani military. As for the political leadership, it is an open secret that they enjoy ceremonial status and do not have the final say in security matters.
There was a significant activity and meetings between the top brass of Pakistani and US military in recent weeks. General Kiyani, the all powerful military chief of Pakistan, holds the key to Afghan peace. The question remains that the Pakistani military -- or at least some elements of it -- are in cahoots with the Taliban. In any case, India remains the top priority of Pakistani military and they want to secure their interests in Afghanistan. The Taliban are not ready to pay any heed to General McChyrstal's plea of quitting with dignity. They have already made it clear that they will step up their fight after the surge.
Amid all this mayhem, it looks unclear if Obama's troop surge will do any good. US has already tried to woo Pakistanis and has been successful to some extent. Pakistani military, however, is still reluctant to take on the Taliban challenge. Some elements within the Pakistani military question American practice of secretly negotiating in Afghanistan while forcing the Pakistanis to fight them. They think that this double-headed approach is contradictory to Obama's claim of fair play in this region. This thinking encourages them to continue propping up the Taliban and providing safe havens to them in Pakistani tribal areas. The recent South Waziristan offensive is a major example of that. They have not touched the Taliban in the North Waziristan region that is the hotbed of Afghan insurgency.
Ahmad Rashid, noted journalist and author of Descent into Chaos, said in a television interview to a local TV channel that Pakistani military is not happy with the surge. He said that they are afraid of an increase in terrorist activities in Pakistan and the movement of militants to Pakistani tribal areas. He, however, also lambasted the Pakistani military's reluctance to take on the Taliban in North Waziristan. He added that Pakistani military is not even ready to put the top Taliban leadership under house arrest and this would create unthinkable problems after the troop surge.
Pakistani military is certainly taking calculated steps towards troop surge but there is a possibility that it might support the Taliban in a more 'open' manner. There is also an uncertainty about the extent of drone attacks in Pakistani tribal areas and any ground offensives by the allied forces in this region. Vice President Joe Biden is a major supporter of this strategy and if we believe Steve Clemons, he is the person that was pivotal in including the possible withdrawal date in Obama's final speech.
Any major surgical strike in Pakistan, however, should not be on the top priorities of Obama. This would create immense problems for the allied forces in Afghanistan and would not yield any positive results. There is also a possibility that United Kingdom would not support this decision. Of late, Gordon Brow has taken a surprisingly tough stance against Pakistan's inaction to capture Osama bin Laden and other leaders of Al-Qaeda. Any practical step, however, can create negative sentiments among the British Pakistani community that is around 2% of UK and Brown knows this well.
Obama's speech fell short of what he really wants from his troops, Pakistan and the weak government in Kabul. If he needs a quick and respectable withdrawal from Afghanistan, he needs to engage Pakistani military -- and the Taliban -- in a meaningful dialogue. Pakistanis have their fair share of interventions and harboring of terrorists but Obama has no other option. They key to Afghan withdrawal lies in Pakistan and he needs to tread carefully on this path. Pakistani military cannot be coaxed into action by sweet talking and there would be a mayhem in case of a direct offensive. The coming weeks and months would set the course for the future of Afghanistan and Pakistan and this is the most crucial time for the global players. Obama certainly needs to do a lot of thinking but some implementation his strategies as well.
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I guess that shouldn't surprise me. When it was very clear - and written in black and white, no less, in the form of a sense of the Senate resolution - what Biden was advocating for US policy in Iraq circa 2006, everybody and their brother got it all wrong...wi
All I'm saying here is that I wish people would refrain from making assertions about what Joe Biden supports based on less than all the facts of the matter.
I would suspect that Vice President Biden would be in near full agreement with your assessment here. In fact, you should try to get an interview with Biden and report back here! I, for one, would appreciate the insight from both of you!