Pakistan's Half-hearted Military Offensives Aren't Enough

The Pakistani military has launched a major offensive against the Taliban in the South Waziristan region. The area is home of the Pakistani Taliban; a terrorist outfit that conducts sabotage activities in Pakistan but remains aloof from the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. North Waziristan, on the other hand, is the hub of the Afghan Taliban and they maintain cordial relations with Pakistani intelligence agencies and even get some tactile support. Although the Pakistani military is claiming victory and has faced minimal resistance but there are no independent resources to verify these reports. The area has been walled off for journalists and they have to rely on government handouts.

Additionally, there is a major crisis of people that have been displaced from the war-torn region. Secretary Clinton announced aid for the internally-displaced persons (IDP) and the Pakistani government has also announced a meager aid to these people. American military is also secretly complimenting the offensive by providing modern weapons and gadgetry to the Pakistani army. This is in addition to $7.5 billions given under the Kerry-Lugar-Berman legislation.

Despite an all-out effort by the US government, the Pakistani military is still reluctant on taking the Taliban challenge head-on. There have been reports in independent media -- Pakistani media face a lot of restrictions to reveal secrets and have just self-imposed a tougher censorship policy -- that the Pakistani military tipped off the Taliban before the offensive. According to a report in BBC Urdu, Pakistani intelligence agencies might have struck a deal with the Taliban in this regard.

It appears that the Pakistani military entered a deal with the Taliban where they agreed to avoid any "lose-lose" position. Pakistani military recaptured the territories while the Taliban retained their cadre, ammunition and organizational structure.

In any case, South Waziristan offensive was announced in May but it actually started after a delay of five months. It was enough time for the Taliban to finalize their combat strategies i.e. tacitcal retreat. The Pakistani military has benefited from this deal but not the common Pakistanis. Terrorist attacks have become a daily affair and hardly a day passes when dozens of people do not lose their lives.

North Waziristan Taliban, under the leadership of Haqqanis, are still strong in their bases and gathering support from some elements of the Pakistani military. As the Pakistani Taliban have also joined them in recent weeks, they might launch major attacks in Afghanistan. Although the real perpetrators of this carnage remain in the "open closet", the lack of a concerted effort would hamper any half-hearted attempts of the Pakistani military.

 

Comments

[ARNY]

We all know there are more than 10000 Taliban fighters (conservative estimate) in Pakistan. Just google the claims of Pakistani army now that they control almost all of South Wazzzu-stan. I would put the total number of Taliban killed or captured at couple of hundreds. What happened to the remaining thousands of Taliban????

Did they disppear in thin air? This supports SAAD's claim that Pakistani army is making half-hearted attempts and putting on a show for all of us while they milk the cash cow (US). Pakistani army and intelligence agencies (ISI) control the media empire and industrial empire of Pakistan. Their surrogates are spreading conspiracy theories about how US and Indian intelligence agencies are helping Taliban to bomb Pakistan. The INSANITY of this is that every Pakistani believes that the terrorist attacks are part of a larger strategy to take away their NUKES and break up Pakistan. How INSANE. Honestly, can we really do a better job than the Pakistanis in blowing themselves up? They are in such a state of DENIAL reminds exactly some 40 years back in the dark days of November/December, we all know how that self inflicted genocide turned out to be. wink wink....

[SaulZ]

Yours view is what is also given by hate-Pakistan Indians, especially its younger generation that grew up under the extreme right government of BJP in 1990s and early 2000s. Here are my points:

1. You missed reading my comments in earlier post. Pakistan military is reclaiming territory. No army is prepared to take on individuals.

2. Pakistani army is losing its seniors and juniors alike in strikes by suicide bombers. Why would it fight against terrorists half-heartedly?

3. Even the NATO experts believe that their offensive might have pushed Talibans into Pakistan. Why does it not occur to your mind that when Pakistani army launches its offensive, Talibans would have pushed into Afghanistan, especially when we all know that 70% of that country is in the control of Talibans.

[ARNY]

Why do we have to bring up Indians into our discussion. BTW when it comes to Pakistan there are no right or left wing just as when we are talking about India there are no right or left wing Pakistanis. They hate eachother.
1. Individuals matter my friend, why did American bomb B-Mehsud or others in Pakistan? Yes, taking back territory is the first step. Bad guys are not known to take an early retirement. You let them get away ONLY if you want to use of them down the line...say when American/NATO pack up and leave.
2. You can count on your fingers the number of Pakistani military officers are killed by suicide bombers. Dont exagerate their sacrifices.
3. Taliban are pushed into Afghanistan instead of capturing/killing because Pakistani is not interested in finishing them off. They want to keep them alive for take over of Afghanistan. You said it, 70% of Afghanistan is occupied by Taliban, cause Americans are looking to exit. Now, Pak-army takes direct charge of protecting the Taliban leadership in Wazzzuuuuu stan.
Let us watch what the army is going to do in North Wazzzuuu. Let me guess, they may say "with heavy snow it is not possible to conduct military ops in the north."

Come on, we all know how Pakistani army played these tricks Over and Over and Over again and GOT AWAY WITH IT.

[SaulZ]

I disagree with Saad Khan’s views. Doubting Pakistan’s military is one fashionable theme these days that can get you attention quickly in the Western media, but this is not reality. Here is my take on the subject. Pakistan military will never be able to take out individual Pakistani Talibans or Al Qaeda operatives. No military can. Armies are not geared to do that. That is the responsibility of specially trained police units. If armies were able to do that then much more sophisticated armies of NATO would have accomplished it long time ago in Afghanistan. Pakistani army is reclaiming its own territories like Swat and claiming those like South Waziristan which it did not have control on previously. The task is simple. Not to let the terrorists, I repeat the terrorists, use a territory for planning terrorism from. Army has full support of the people of northwest ‘Pukhtoonkhwa’ province.

I am with our party in power in the Puktoonkhwa. The party has a simple slogan on our war against the terrorists – “this war is going to be fought till the end. It is either us or them”. So forget about what ‘catwalk’ journalists are writing. Read what is the democratically elected government of Pukhtoonkhwa is saying.

[agthagola]

Pakistani Generals and President Zardari have found a "fat cash cow" after the so called "war on terror started. Now situation is that Western countries including US borrow money from China to pay "hounarble President Zardari and his respectable associates". Pakistan do not use that money to fight Taliban but either it goes into Zardari and co's personal accounts or purchase of advance weapon systems from China. China is getting rich from both sides.
The job of PK generals is to keep this conflict burning and get regular net cash flow ganranted for indefinate time for themselves and their next generaltions. President Zardari does not know what do with all cash flow, he is getting more money than he know the "counting". Technically the conflit is to the point where Pakistani generals can maintain it at slow burning level for indefinate periods.
In my opinion the only worry Zardari and his generals have is how they will make money once this "war on terror is over"?

[SFA]

What you are talking about is battles not war. War has been lost winning the battles will not do any good.

[GarryLad]

Winning battles and then consolidating the wins might be the true Path to Salvation as the Pakistanis have dubbed this offensive. Mehsuds could then shuck their Taliban clothing and perhaps come up with joint solutions on historical bases rather than follow a relatively new charismatic movement guided and supported by foreign fighters from alien sects.

The best thing that the US could do in a short term military way to is to decapitate these foreign elements, find OBL and his henchmen and have done with it. The Taliban as a notion must ultimately succumb to the historical fire that have kept these tribal folks vibrant in their sense of self.

Waziris have a long history of resistance, whether this be the British in the 1920's or the Soviet Union more recently. They were Waziris then and they are still Waziris.

[SFA]

i think it's delusional to believe Pakistan will ever go the whole way.

They will only do enough to keep America happy & the dollar flowing.

Pakistan has it's own security requirements which do not gel with America's GWOT.....which by the way America has lost.American war is only creating more trouble for Pakistan.

Pakistan is playing for time........wait for Obama's 2nd term victory & America will be out of Afghnistan. Britain has started planning to move out in 1 year.(See today's Guardian)Canada is already on the way out.

Pakistan will not take on the Taliban....because if they do they don't have a strategic buffer in Afghanistan. Karzai is an Indian guy & India is pretty active in Afghanistan & Pakistan does not want to be encircled by India on East & the West.

Only solution..­..Quagmire , if America does not accept defeat

or Bringing in the Taliban into the Gov.
or America should have won the War in Afghanistan & even if they had an Indian guy would not have mattered.

But America lost the war...........

[markhughw]

This article complements quite well Seymour Hersh's article in this week's New Yorker.

[iridium53]

You seem to be knowledgeable about the situation.

What percentage of the money given Pakistan is just payment to corrupt politicians as opposed to actually used for military or food?

Perhaps you could explain what the best outcome might be for Americans to be in Pakistan and Afghanistan?

What's the risk that America faces in AfPak that is worth American blood, limbs, lives and money? Perhaps you could enumerate reasons for Amerian presence at all?

[markhughw]

By "you, " are you referring GarryLad below, or Saad Khan, the author, above?

[Saad Khan - Huffpost Blogger]

I'm confused about the addressee of this question. Anyways, here is my take on this.

There are no statistics or accurate auditing of American aid to Pakistan in the past. As for the $7.5 billion in the recent aid, the US would not dish out this money to Pak government; instead, they are planning to spend it through non-governmental organizations. Again, they need to enforce strict transparency as most Pakistani NGOs have a rather stained track record.

Best outcome would be a respectful withdrawal within 5-6 years or so provided they negotiate with the moderate Taliban.

You need to ask this question to your president and military's top cadre as they know the reason for a prolonged stay in Afghanistan. I think that it is an issue of prestige as well as the US cannot afford to lose this war. Taliban still have the power to immediately take over if the US forces leave and they would invite Jihadis from all over the world. Afghanistan is also rich in natural resources and on the crossroads of energy routes so that is another reason for this stay. It is really a complex situation and Americans need to engage with Pakistanis and Afghans to find some real way out for everyone.

[matrix]

Saad, Pak army is only game in town, unless you think Zardari's palace guards would do a better job. It would be lot more instructive to talk about who are PTT. My impression is that they are opportunistic criminals using religion for cover. Since you are close to action tell me about their funding, logistics and organization.

[GarryLad]

I am frankly puzzled. If the US knows so much about its real enemies in North Waziristan and even knows the location of Mullah Omar, then you are suggesting that all of the stories we read about the Pak offensive in South Waziristan is some sort of a sop by the US toward Pakistan.

I fail to understand what gain there is for the US in not only allowing the Pakistani version to stand but to encourage this perception in reporting.

Are you suggesting that the US is powerless in this situation and are happy to allow a perception that something useful is going on even if this is not true?

[Saad Khan - Huffpost Blogger]

Unfortunately, the recent offensive would not bring any positive results in the broader perspectives. US is powerless in the sense that it has failed to engage the Taliban in a dialogue. Even if they add thousands of troops, only dialogues and negotiations would be the ultimate solution. Haqqanis and other Taliban and Pakistani ISI share some deep bonds; that is why Pakistani army is not hitting the Taliban in North Waziristan, the real hub of Taliban.

It is a complex issue where Pakistani military establishment is not ready to allow the US in gaining a complete control as it would benefit its arch-rival India. There is a strong circle of retired Pakistani generals that still exert influence over the authority and all of them want the US to leave Afghanistan immediately. You can say that they are playing a double game and the US does not have any other option. They are just relying on military and financial aid and interactions with Pakistani military to change their strategies towards Afghanistan.

[ARNY]

SAAD, it is ironic that the Pakistanis self-righteously make suggestions to engage Taliban. We all know how they engaged with their own brothers in E. Bengal and Baluchistan. Bottom line is Pakistan wants to make Afghanistan their backyard (Junkyard). Well Obama may not be ready to give it to you on the platter. We will just sit tight and watch. I would not be surprised if the powerful retired generals get impatient..we all know how it is going to end up.