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Sal Nunziato

Sal Nunziato

Posted: July 25, 2008 11:06 AM

A-Rod: The Numbers Do Lie...Sort Of.


What is it that everyone sees in Alex Rodriguez that I don't? And please, don't say, "Just look at his numbers." I know A-Rod consistently puts up MVP numbers. He is the "greatest living ball player," right? But is it at all possible that a lot of those numbers are put up at really meaningless times?

Let's look at some other numbers. McDonald's, for instance, sells billions of hamburgers. But can't we all think of 20 places with better burgers? That's without even trying. How about The Dark Knight? First weekend alone it grossed like, eleventy kazillion dollars. Does that make it the greatest movie of all time? How about putting The Dark Knight in the Top 100 films of all time? Didn't think so.

Biggest selling records of all time -- Michael Jackson's Thriller? Saturday Night Fever? Frampton Comes Alive? All there on the list. A combined 40 songs. Would any be considered some of the greatest songs ever written? "Doobie Wah" or "P.Y.T." anyone?

I was born a Yankees fan. The whole family, great aunts and uncles, cousins, grandparents and friends of friends are Yankees fans. I went to Yankees games in 1967 when the highlight was seeing John Ellis get up. But even back in the Steve Balboni years, I felt like there was a team playing the game. When I watch A-Rod, all I see is A-Rod. Has he ever sacrificed an at bat for the team? Punched a little blooper to the opposite field to score the man on third? I watch almost EVERY game, I can't remember ever seeing it. His numbers are for himself.

There must be a statistician out there who can do this for me. Just how many of A-Rod's hits and RBIs came when the Yankees really needed them? Some, many possibly, will argue that a three-run dinger when the Yankees are already up by 5 runs is necessary. But again, is swinging for the fence every time you get up the best way to win a ballgame. Do his teammates like him?

Of course, it isn't all A-Rod's fault. As a matter of fact, most of the Yankees losses are not because of A-Rod. But neither are their wins.

Greatest living ball player and no rings. What good then, are his numbers? I want to get on board the A-Rod train. I welcome any and all comments. I want to be convinced.

What is it that everyone sees in Alex Rodriguez that I don't? And please, don't say, "Just look at his numbers." I know A-Rod consistently puts up MVP numbers. He is the "greatest living ball player,"...
What is it that everyone sees in Alex Rodriguez that I don't? And please, don't say, "Just look at his numbers." I know A-Rod consistently puts up MVP numbers. He is the "greatest living ball player,"...
 
 
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01:02 AM on 07/27/2008
Like any sport the problem isn't paying superstars super money its when you pay the middle guys like superstars that the money becomes an issue. A-Rod (and every other athlete) isn't paid his contract to do anything more than what he has already done. Essentially, athletes are paid for what they have already done (and are expected to maintain those numbers, which he has done.)

Titles like "greatest of all time" are so arbitrary and value can't be placed on them. Its silly to even debate such a thing seriously. Thats what contrived countdown specials are for.

dac23 you're wasting your time. No one wants to see those numbers because its so easy to say he's not clutch. I believe it was two years ago at the all-star break he was leading the majors in go ahead RBIs WHILE people were saying he doesn't hit when it counts. When you look for someone to do something every single time they come up to bat of course it looks like he's a failure when he probably succeeds 3 out of 10 times. We forget, 3/10 is exactly what he was paid for. Baseball is a game of failure.

Its amazing no one seems to rip on Giambi. I guess it doesn't matter what he doesn't do because he doesn't have a meaningless title attached to his name. The Yanks have gotten more out of A-Rod than Jason.
01:27 AM on 07/26/2008
I've heard this argument from Yankee fans for years now. But the Yankees don't even make it to the playoffs last year without him.

We were talking about this exact thing a couple weeks ago at sportsline and here's a comparison a Met fan came up with, comparing HRs from A-Rod to David Ortiz (who most people consider clutch):

"Ortiz: 1246 games, 4425 AB, 279 HR, 9 game ending, 101 go ahead, 25 tying.

Arod: 1967 games, 7583 AB, 534 HR, 7 game ending, 180 go ahead, 44 game tying.

Per at bat. game ending - Ortiz 0.0020; Arod 0.0009. Ortiz more than twice as often.

Go ahead: Ortiz 0.0228; Arod 0.0237. Arod slight advantage

Game tying: Ortiz 0.0056; Arod 0.0058. Arod slight advantage.

Combined: Ortiz 0.0305; Arod 0.0305. Papi has a negligible advantage in that Arod's number is rounded up to 0.0305.

So what that means is that per at bat, the difference between Big Papi's game ending/tying/go ahead rate is less than 1 event per 10,000 at bats. Everyone seems to agree that Big Papi is clutch, but the numbers say he's almost exactly as clutch as Arod as far as HRs hit in these situations."
12:35 AM on 07/26/2008
If you want to know how important A-Rod's homers or RBIs have been, pony up some bucks and contact the Elias Sports Bureau. They will compile all the stats you could hope to ask for.

I hate A-Rod with a passion and it is due to his being the biggest phony I have ever known in my more than 40 years of following baseball. Nonetheless, This article was mainly just a lot of gratuitous kvetching.

And Zenobius is correct.
04:10 PM on 07/25/2008
Copy of Speeding ticket, signed by A-ROD, that became a "Failure to Appear" in court

http://webofdeception.com/arodspeedingticket.html
03:17 PM on 07/25/2008
I would love if it the Red Sox had gotten A-Rod, paid what we paid and gave up tons of prospects. We'd be a better team and they'd be weaker. Whenever a Mets fan comes to Yankee Stadium, I always make this offer: we'll trade you A-Rod for David Wright and pay the difference in their salary. Almost no one has to even think about it. No thanks, they say. In the bleachers, we've dubbed A-Rod "the greatest regular season player in the history of baseball." That seems to sum it up. Don't look at stats. Stats are for fantasy league players and people who don't appreciate a good walk or bunt and get all juiced by a home run when real fans know sometimes what you really need is a double to keep the inning going or that a triple is almost always more exciting.
12:14 PM on 07/25/2008
This issue is a part of a larger issue, that is, does clutch performance {the ability to hit better when it really counts} exist? Obviously, if no ball player is consistently better in the clutch, then A-Rod will not be consistently better in the clutch, and his not being good in clutch is an artifact of luck and human memory. If no one is "a clutch player" then you cannot fault A-Rod for not being one.

The SABR/Baseballball Prospectus/Bill James crowd has done a number of studies, which offer strong evidence that clutch performance does not exist.

This is a separate issue from whether or not A-Rod is currently the greatest ball player in the major leagues. My guess is that a detailed analysis of current players, aimed at ranking them, would come up with someone else as #1 {this depends on how heavily you weight power versus defense, etc}. But A-Rod is pretty clearly in the top 5. If you're a Yankees fan, just be glad the Yankees, not the Red Sox, have him.
01:08 PM on 07/25/2008
"If you're a Yankees fan, just be glad the Yankees, not the Red Sox, have him".

Here's where I'm either stubborn or dense. What if he was on the Red Sox? Or any other team in the A.L. East. Am I the only Yankees fan who would rather have two or three other team players with really, REALLY good numbers for half the price? Thanks to A-Rod's salary, our bench is Chad Moeller and Wilson Betemit. I agree, A-Rod is "pretty clearly in the Top 5." Still, the last 10 World Series were won without A-Rod. It can be done. And for less money.
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04:41 PM on 07/25/2008
We're talking about the Yankees. It's not like they could either pick up A-Rod OR two or three lesser-priced players. Money to them is no object. They can pay A-Rod $27 million and also pick up all the mid-priced players they want and pay the luxury tax out of the petty cash drawer.

So instead of worrying about whether the Yankees' third baseman is the greatest player ever or merely a great player, how about fretting over the injuries that have taken three All-Stars -- Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada and Chien-Ming Wang -- out of the lineup?

Or Melky Cabrera, the center fielder who's hitting under .250 with precious little power?

Or, for that matter, the $20 million-a-year team captain who injured his hand, refused to take himself out of the lineup, and is having his worst season ever offensively as a result?

Given all the other problems the Yanks are facing, I don't understand why anyone would split hairs over how great A-Rod is.