Syria has become dangerous. Syrians get killed and wounded almost daily. Their neighbors have also felt the impacts of violence: refuges in Turkey and outbreaks of fighting in Tripoli's streets in Lebanon where peace depends on a nuanced arrangement between Christians and Sunni and Shia Muslims.
Northern Iraqi Kurds share with Syrian Kurds the "statehood" ideal that has periodically shaken the region and provoked Turkey to use heavy military force.
Jordan and Israel watch uneasily as scores of armed rebel units do urban guerrilla warfare. Patrick Seale reports, "jihadis, armed Islamic extremists, have crossed into Syria from neighboring countries -- and also from Kuwait, Tunisia, Algeria and Pakistan. ... Rebel groups conduct ambushes, attack check-points, destroy public property, kill government troops -- about 250 were killed in ten days in late May and early June. They also kidnap, rape and slaughter pro-regime civilians," and easily sell the "Asad did it" line to U.S. media.
To stop the rebels from holding territory, Seale continues, Asad's forces have shelled neighborhoods "when rebels hole up in them." The rebels hope to provoke "Western military intervention... The rebels know they cannot defeat the Syrian army without outside help."
Indeed, Syrian violence has begun to loom like a potential, political cholera in the region, which anti-Asad promoters will not easily contain.
The United States continues to try to "knock off the rogues." Disobedient, undemocratic regimes like Syria and Iran -- not obedient Saudi Arabia and Yemen -- beget Secretary of State Hilary Clinton's and President Barack Obama's threats and feel the pain of their sanctions -- even though neither country has done anything to America. Indeed, over the past decade, Syria tortured "suspects" for Washington, and warned U.S. agencies of terrorist plots, which then were thwarted. President Asad has become a recipient of the "no good deed goes unpunished" law.
The White House responds to Syria's efforts with phrases resonating with war tones. But one active member of the U.S. armed forces attempts suicide almost twice a day, not an indicator of readiness to fight yet another Middle East war.
The Syrian uprising with clandestine funding from Saudi and Qatari royalties and anti-Asad Syrian millionaires abroad, and support from Washington and its allies, aims to weaken Syria, Iran's ally. The conflict, however, also raises a fear of yet another western venture into the Middle East -- with a possible wider clash as well.
In early June, Secretary Clinton accused Russia of supplying attack helicopters to Asad, an act that "prolongs the violence." Russia denied her charge, showing it had repaired older Syrian helicopters. (New York Times, June 14.) Russia then called on Clinton to stop Saudi and Qatari financing arms and mercenaries going into Syria.
Paying lip service to the U.N. plan forged by former Secretary General Kofi Annan, Clinton then told Russia to stay out of Syria -- some distant region, you know, like Cuba is to the United States.
Russian Foreign Miister Sergei Lavrov said Russia resisted western intervention "because we know Syria is a complicated multi-confessional state, and because we know that some of those calling for military intervention want to ruin this and turn Syria into a battleground for domination in the Islamic world." (AP Moscow, June 9, 2012)
"Butchers," shout U.S. politicians and media at Syria's rulers, accepting on faith reports from the Syrian opposition -- including al-Qaeda members -- that Asad's forces massacred civilians at Houla and al-Qubair. But who really did these ugly acts? The media have until recently accepted opposition claims uncritically.
Syria's 20.5 million are not governed by a nut like Qadaffi. Asad maintains strong support in Damascus and Aleppo, Syria's largest cities, as well as in Alawite areas. A February poll conducted by a Qatari agency, backed by anti-Asad money, concluded Asad's regime enjoyed 55 percent popular support -- not for its virtues, but because people worried a subsequent government would be worse.
Amidst U.S. and European recessions, why provoke tensions in Syria where western intervention could provoke a new Cold War? China and Russia, fearing a big-power conflict, have refused to abide the West's anti-Asad moves. Syria's conflict could also ignite a regional and religious war: Saudi Arabia and Qatar versus Iran; Sunnis versus Shias.
What should the West do to stop ongoing violence to civilians? The Independent's Mary Dejevsky called it "utterly disingenuous for the U.S. and Britain to call for action in Syria and blame Russia for being obstructive." Kofi Annan's U.N. plan to end violence between Asad's forces and opposition fighters, she observed, did not stop massacres. But who did the dirty deeds? Asad blames "terrorists;" his enemies blame Asad. ("The Euro crisis will look like a walk in the park if Syria explodes," June 8)
The Frankfurter Allegemeine Zeitung (FAZ), blamed anti-Asad Sunnis because the victims were almost all "from the Alawi and Shia minorities." The German newspaper said "perpetrators then filmed their victims and, in internet videos presented them as Sunni victims of the regime."
Patrick Seale suggests the West should "unite with Russia and China" to pressure "both sides" to stop fighting "and come to the table. "Diplomacy, rather than war, is the only way to preserve what is left of Syria for its hard-pressed citizens."
Maybe after the U.S. elections?
Landau's WILL THE REAL TERRORIST PLEASE STAND UP is available on dvd from cinemalibrestore.com. He's an Institute for Policy Studies Fellow.
Kemal Argon: What Can the Salem Witch Museum Teach American Muslims?
Too many of our "intelligence experts" belong to the Ali Baba School of Middle Eastern foreign policy. They think the only ooption iswto rush in headlong, guns blazing, as if they were some kind of cavalry of justice rushing in to save the day. It's high time we learned what "nuance" meant.
At least Saul Landau has been fairly forthright about this......
The battleground is set in the Middle East (ME), where by the Shi'a are making their push to dominant ME politics.
Northern Yemen, Bahrain, Northern Saudia are strongly Shi'a and mass migration over the years has caused a vacuum of sorts.
Many immigration policies of the past told those forementioned countries to allow Shi'a but control Sunni migration in these countries.
It is shapely up to be a big conflict with no winners here. All will lose in this one!
The Arab countries today field the most brutal security forces in the world. And they are trained and armed by the US and other western countries.
Even if Assad is removed the Shi'ah element, which is very strong in Syria will not take this lightly. Nor will Hezbollah, which is not a friend to Sunni Muslims.
The west purposely pushed a migration of Shi'ah into Arab Countries of the Middle East while curtailing the Sunni migration. The west knew in time that this would began a new conflict.
if the Arab Muslim Countries are mired in conflict, they can be controlled from back rooms from afar!
Another insidious myth is doing the rounds: that 55% of Syrians support president Assad. The figure was cited by Aisling Byrne in an article which I critiqued recently. Now, it has surfaced again in an article by Jonathan Steele for the Guardian.
While it is undoubtedly true that the Assad regime still has a measure of support within Syria, no one can sensibly put a figure on it or claim that Assad's supporters form a majority.
The 55% figure comes from an internet survey by YouGov Siraj for al-Jazeera's Doha Debates. Just over 1,000 people across the Arab countries were asked their opinion of Assad and an overwhelming majority – 81% – thought he should step down.
However, al-Jazeera says the picture inside Syria is different: "Syrians are more supportive of their president with 55% not wanting him to resign."
What is the basis for this statement? A look at the methodology of the survey shows that 211 of the respondents were in Levantine countries and that 46% of those were in Syria. In other words, the finding is based on a sample of just 97 internet users in Syria among a population of more than 20 million. It's not a meaningful result and certainly not adequate grounds for such sweeping conclusions about national opinion in Syria.
Posted by Brian Whitaker, 18 January 2012 http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2012/blog1201.htm
Anas El-Khani, Kinana Saffour, Anass Toma, Amr Salahi, Hamza al-Sibaai, Hussam Hajjouk
British Solidarity for Syria http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/19/syrian-poll-assad-no-credibility
It's not in the interests of USA to establish a master and slave relationship with other nations unless if one want to see US following a footsteps of UK, a has been power!