In an insightful piece published last week, Michael Barone deduced that, in the last three presidential cycles, the share of the popular vote received by the two major parties' candidates was essentially the same as their parties received in the immediately preceding midterm. In 2008, then-Senator Obama bested...

The reliability of so-called "internal polls" released by political campaigns and parties is the subject of ongoing debate. Nate Silver has cautioned that such polls should not be taken at face value since they are "almost always designed to drive a media narrative." Silver notes that the topline...