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Scot Reader

Blog Entries by Scot Reader

Tea Leaves in the Jungle: Why the DCCC's California Dreams Are Unlikely to Materialize

(3) Comments | Posted June 28, 2012 | 11:48 AM

Picking up three to six House seats in California's congressional delegation is instrumental to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's stated goal of flipping at least 25 Republican seats nationwide and retaking control of the House of Representatives in 2013. However, the results of the Golden State's first-ever "jungle"...

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Will the Budget Showdown Be Obama's "Game Changer" (or Not)?

(36) Comments | Posted July 25, 2011 | 11:04 AM

In an insightful piece published last week, Michael Barone deduced that, in the last three presidential cycles, the share of the popular vote received by the two major parties' candidates was essentially the same as their parties received in the immediately preceding midterm. In 2008, then-Senator Obama bested...

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Partisan Bias in Internal Polls: Lessons from the 2010 Midterm

(2) Comments | Posted November 11, 2010 | 9:38 AM

The reliability of so-called "internal polls" released by political campaigns and parties is the subject of ongoing debate. Nate Silver has cautioned that such polls should not be taken at face value since they are "almost always designed to drive a media narrative." Silver notes that the topline...

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