The most shocking thing about Star Trek's weekend performance isn't the alleged $79.2 million in 3.5 days. That's a great number, a nearly three million more than the estimates. No, the shocking part is that, unlike nearly every live-action genre tent pole picture in recent memory, Star Trek's Saturday business actually increased by a token amount from it's opening Friday. The reboot's maiden voyage grossed $27.4 million on Saturday (the pure Friday numbers, including midnight showings, were $26.8 million, meaning it's now the third biggest Friday of 2009). That's an amazing accomplishment in this day and age.
In the old days (think anytime before the last six years or so), a film opened on Friday, went up a bit on Saturday, then dipped a little below the Friday number on Saturday. Solid 3x multipliers were common and anything less was a sign of trouble. That's now a thing of the past for anything that is even remotely 'eagerly awaited', with the exception of family-centered animated films (Monsters Vs. Aliens) and/or explicitly grown up entertainment (like The Bourne Ultimatum). Today it's a front-loaded opening day, followed by a token fall on Saturday and Sunday. Long story short, plenty of non-geeks and grown ups decided to check out Star Trek after opening day, and everyone from Friday told their pals to see it. Iron Man was the most recent event picture to pull that off, and we all know how well it held up over the summer.
In 3.5 days, Star Trek has out grossed every single Star Trek picture except for Star Trek: The Motion Picture ($82 million), Star Trek: First Contact ($92 million), and Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home ($109 million). By today, it will be the third highest grossing Trek picture and it'll easily surpass the franchise record by Saturday at the absolute latest. Obviously inflation is not figured into these numbers. No real point complaining, but I'd argue that the Sunday total ($21 million) would probably be higher if not for the fact that today is Mother's Day. It sounds like the film is truly playing like an across-the-board, all-audiences smash hit. This is a big win for Paramount, especially if it plays like a mainstream reboot (Batman Begins, Casino Royale) and less like... well, a Star Trek film. As for final domestic take, I'm thinking $230 million at this point, maybe more if Terminator: Salvation underwhelms (in which case Star Trek has the genre field all to itself for a full month). As it is, solid word of mouth and positive press coverage now makes Star Trek the second choice for most movie goers for a good chunk of June, which is a very nice place to be.
To Paramount's credit, they have publicly stated that they are in this for the long haul (which theoretically justifies the film's alleged $200 million+ final cost). They knew that had an audience-pleaser on their hands. Regardless of the final domestic gross, Paramount knew that the series would be in prime position to capitalize on the goodwill of this first picture. Like past 'better than I expected' first films (Austin Powers: International Man Of Mystery, X-Men, The Bourne Identity, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl, Batman Begins, and Casino Royale), the inevitable sequel could nearly double this film's opening weekend take. Right here, right now, I'm calling $100 million+ for the opening weekend of the second Star Trek 2.0 picture.
For more box office info, including the near-record plunge of a certain tent pole and the tragic demise of a cartoon that you should try to check out, go to Mendelson's Memos.
Scott Mendelson
I also saw Wolverine, mostly because the 13-year old comic-book geek in me wouldn't allow the opportunity to see what used to be my favorite character on the big screen (more or less solo). I *won't* be seeing that a second time.
I know you weren't enamored with the new Trek, but (unlike Wolverine) it really had a great deal of the elements that lured us into the franchise back in the day. Sure, there were plot holes to drive a truck through, but the same could be said for The Dark Knight, and that didn't stop it from becoming one of my all-time favorite movies ever. It's more about heart than intellect, but I see it as a great beginning to something new and (hopefully) wonderful.
For starters, if the movie didn't work, the word of mouth would have started tanking it over the weekend. It didn't. In fact, word of mouth drove the movie's business over the weekend.
Plus all the great reviews.
Nice try at being a contrarian.
You're projecting "a solid domestic return." That's generous of you.
Face it, it's a big hit.
See:
http://notionscapital.wordpress.com/2009/05/10/intergalactic-eats/