This Is It Becomes the World's Highest-Grossing Concert Film in History

First off, the facts. Michael Jackson's This Is It grossed $34.4 million in five-days, which gives it a surprisingly high 4.64x multiplier on its $7.4 million opening Wednesday. Its three-day weekend take was $21 million, more than enough to be number 01 for the weekend. In just five days, the $60 million acquisition has become the third-highest grossing concert film of all time, behind the $65 million gross of Hanna Montana: Best of Both Worlds and the alleged (via many releases) $50 million gross of 1970's Woodstock. Internationally, Sony is claiming a $103.9 million debut session. This Is It is now the highest-grossing concert film of all time in just five days, easily eclipsing the $71 million worldwide total of the 3D Hanna Montana film. This is a rock-solid debut, no matter what Nikki Finke tries to tell you.

I've said this many times before. Box office punditry, with analysts, trackers, and armchair pundits trying to guess what the weekend's box office will be, is NOT anything more than a game. It is a fun game, one which I've partaken in for nearly twenty-years. But my predictions are not news. They are not measures for which to judge whether a movie opened successfully or poorly. They are a game. Taken any more seriously than that, box office pre-release punditry can be a dangerous tool for one studio to spread a narrative of failure based on nothing more than a random prediction. It's the same game that gets played in politics. For example, the GOP sells a narrative that Kerry or Obama will go up 15 points after the convention. The media bites, they fail to do the math, and then the official story is that the Dems are flopping when they only get a 7 point bounce. If I'm a rival studio, would it not be in my best interest to spread word that Michael Jackson's This Is It was sure to gross at least $90 million in its first five days? Then, after said prediction becomes the narrative of choice in the entertainment press, would it not be in my best interest to exclaim shock that said motion picture did not open to my completely made-up predictions? And it would be pretty easy, since when one of the most widely-read columnists in the business lives and breathes by proclaiming and reveling in alleged failure at every turn.

This is something I've talked about for nearly a decade. I first noticed it during the run-up to Blair Witch 2, when the pundits inexplicably predicted a $30 million opening. The myth that this was a possibility caused the film to be rendered a flop when it opened to a reasonable $13 million (why would anyone expect a sequel to a half-loved/half-loathed cult film to open higher than the much-anticipated original?). It happened in May 2001, when rival studio execs sold the lie that Pearl Harbor could top $100 million+ in four days, and then called the film a flop when it did $75 million. And it wasn't Universal that sold the myth that Peter Jackson's King Kong was a genuine threat to Titanic's $600 million domestic gross. But they are the ones who got burned when the $200 million-budgeted film ended up being labeled an under-achiever despite grossing $550 million worldwide. And be sure to pay very close attention in the next two months as to who is hawking what box office predictions for James Cameron's Avatar. It sure won't be Fox tossing out pie-in-the-sky predictions of untold box-office glory. It will be 'unnamed studio execs' from Warner Bros (Sherlock Holmes opens a week later) or Universal (It's Complicated is the main adult-draw of the holiday season). Or it might be armchair pundits hoping to raise expectations so they can write juicy stories of failure when the movie doesn't live up to their arbitrary standards.

Under normal circumstances, this numbers game would be harmless fun. The problem is that, especially after Titanic, box office punditry has become a mainstream sport, not just the cult game played by insiders and film nerds like me. And when (at best) glorified educated guesses or intentionally misleading pronouncements are taken as serious mathematics, then there are serious consequences for the films in play. It happened to Dreamworks, when business analysts couldn't understand why Madagascar hadn't performed like Shrek 2 (their stock took a major hit after Memorial Day 2005). It happened when Charlie's Angels was inexplicably expected to open to $70 million (nearly double the first film's $40 million opening) or Watchmen was absolutely expected to open to at least $70 million just because it had the same director as 300. And it will happen to each and every new Marvel film because people who don't get it will expect every future Marvel film (Thor, Ant Man, etc) to perform like Iron Man. And it will have serious consequences because the opinions of said know-nothings will be taken as news and/or gospel.

That's not to say that those involved with This Is It are blameless in the potential 'under-performer' narrative now attempting to be sold. AEG stupidly proclaimed last month that the picture could gross $250 million in its first-five days based on pre-release online ticket sales. Of course, the rantings of a sports and concert company should have been taken every bit as seriously as sports predictions from Wolfgang Puck. This prediction was followed by the infamous 'unnamed rival studio exec' and his $90 million domestic prediction, which in turn led to stories about how every ticket would be sold out and every screening would be packed all weekend. I've always argued that the first five-day gross of Star Wars: Episode One: The Phantom Menace was hurt by know-nothing commentators swearing that every seat would be sold out over opening weekend. Little surprise that many of the casual fans did in fact attend during weekend two, contributing to a mere 20% drop. Yet it's 'underwhelming' first weekend ($64 million in three days, a then-record $105 million in five-days) led to the overall narrative that The Phantom Menace was a box office disappointment, despite eventually grossing $431 million. We saw a similar narrative with This Is It and, I'd argue, similar consequences.

So now, having grossed $101 million in five days, Sony pictures must now fight the fiction that the picture was a relative disappointment. The most amusing part is that there was absolutely no way that anyone could have reasonably predicted how much this thing would gross. Yes, I'm sure lucky guesses abounded in the Box Office Mojo weekend derby, but anything other than gut-level intuition was impossible as there was no precedent to base this picture on. How many other 'hastily-edited-together 110-minute documentaries containing raw rehearsal footage of a concert that never happened released in order to cash in on the unexpected death of its star- arguably the most famous entertainer on earth' have there been? I'm not saying those who correctly guessed $32 million in five days and $21 million in three don't deserve a high-five, but there was no excuse for anyone trying to build any 'reasonable expectations' for this once-in-a-lifetime type situation. It's fine and dandy to have your own guesses, but it's quite another when random guesstimates are taken as actual news and/or the bar for minimum perception of success. Point being, any number that comes in before the actual opening day estimates is a guess, a prediction hopefully based on math or history, but often just based on either random thoughts or intentional misinformation.

OK, enough with that mess, how did the rest of the box office do? Paranormal Activity grossed another $16.3 million, ironically showing its first (meager) signs of weariness over Halloween weekend. The Paramount acquisition that could has now amassed $84.6 million. If it makes it to $100 million, it will be the first R-rated horror film to cross said milestone since Hannibal back in February 2001. Expect a terrible sequel by next Halloween. Alas, one not-terrible sequel failed to gain any traction over the Halloween weekend, as Saw VI plummeted 62.7% for a $5.2 million second-weekend and a $22.5 million ten-day total. Amazingly, the sixth chapter of the long-running series may fail to match the opening weekend of the previous sequels ($30-33 million for parts II-V). While direct competition from Paranormal Activity was likely the fatal factor, I must admit that the series has become so intertwined in its own continuity that one must absolutely have seen, followed, and vividly remembered each prior Saw film to actually comprehend this superior sixth chapter. Where the Wild Things Are cemented itself as a one-weekend wonder, as it dropped another 57.7% in its third weekend. Its new total is $62.6 million and now even $85 million is a pipe dream. Still, as I've said before, those that love this film really love it so it'll be a major player in the home theater arena. Couples Retreat has held up reasonably well as the second-choice of casual moviegoers, although the $70 million comedy won't get much farther than $100 million. Amelia added 200 screens and fell only 22.3% from its soft opening last weekend. The $40-million, critically-reviled Oscar bait has now grossed $8.3 million. The painfully stupid but occasionally fun Law Abiding Citizen (my two-year old knows more about the legal process) also held on strong, grossing $51.4 million mark by the end of its third weekend. Movies for grownups having legs? Lets not learn anything from this.

There's not too much else to report. After this one-week respite from openings galore, the holiday season kicks off in full-force with FIVE major openings. We've got A Christmas Carol 3D (review coming Tuesday), The Box (which was supposed to open this weekend, and bloody well should have), Men Who Stare at Goats, and The Fourth Kind. Plus we have the limited release of Precious, the Tyler Perry/Oprah Winfrey pick-up that's already been proclaimed an Oscar front-runner and been denounced as victim of a backlash before a single paying audience member has seen it. Well, as my high-school journalism teacher always liked to say 'if we can't break the news, we'll make the news'.

Scott Mendelson

 

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Comments

[jessicawa]

I've always loved Michael Jackson's music. I was busy raising my kids during the time of his trials and never paid attention to the tabloid garbage at all. After he died, I had more time to reflect and research MJ and realized how poorly this genius, loving and caring man was treated . Do we ever treat our talented artists poorly in N. America, it is so sad to see how the media influences people and how easily we are swayed by them. All MJ ever did was give us his all: his creativity, his dance, his lyrics, his short films , his efforts to perform and give us the BEST he could. He gave back with pure and clean music and dance (no swearing, sex like today). Music children can still listen to today. He gave us songs that inspired us to heal the world, treat each other well (No matter race...) and take a look at the Man in the mirror ( make a change for the better ). He entertained us and just made us feel so good. Even now he touches our hearts with his music, his videos, concerts and especially This Is It. He has changed me for the better and I believe will continue to tug at our hearts and make us better people and make a better world. It 's too bad it took his death to realize what a treasure and gift from God he was. A true legend and beautiful soul.

[Tierney]

Thank you Scott for your fantastic article. The film is truly incredible. But let us not forget the reasons why this film has come be in the first place. Michael's early death was not a given. In reality, it was not the slow drip of an anaesthetic that killed him, but the sustained trauma of punitive legal harassment and the relentless onslaught of the media's villification of this man that caused his heart to stop. The shame of that rests not only with Tom Sneddon, Diane Dimond, Maureen Orth, Martin Bashir, and The Smoking Gun - but with all of us who didn't do what we are doing now; voting with our feet to celebrate this human being who gave us so much. Flawed, he may have been - aren't we all, but he was no harmer of children. The fact is, Michael championed the rights of children his whole life, but his attempts to help those in need would eventually be used a weapon against him. I will never forget Michael - or what was done to him either. Let us remember him as he deserves to be - with love and respect.

[SC341]

I saw "This Is It" over the weekend and although I had not paid that much attention to Michael in the past 10 years (with the exception of the media madness during the 2005 trial). I was very moved by this film and cried at the end of it. Still can't believe he's gone. He was a in the public eye for forty years. It took his death for me to remember how much I loved him. r.i.p. Michael Jackson.

[rpp64zz]

Hah! I just deleted Nikki Finke from my Book Mark Bar because she just thrashed THIS IS IT all weekend. I laughed out loud when I read your article telling us to forget about what Nikki Finke says. LOL!!!! Love it. You made my day. I saw THIS IS IT twice and I plan to see it again. Love it!

[Cherubim]

The movie "This Is It" is like the experience of getting an unexpected present, and
then opening it up and finding a beautiful work of art inside.

[Harlanlover]

90% of the proceeds of "Michael Jackson's This Is It" goes to the MJ Estate. 10% goes to AEG.
I had the honor to go to the premiere & I've seen it 3 times after. I personally would like to contribute to MJ's legacy as much as possible, thereby adding to his children's inheritance. If watching the greatest entertainer ever born express his astounding talent accomplishes those objectives, mores the better.

[BoGardiner]

This is stunning news.

To those arguing about whether it's a documentary or a concert film, I'm reminded of Saturday Night Live, It's a floorcleaner! No, it's a delicious topping! (or whatever).

If you see it, you understand that it's both. There can't be a full comparison to any other film in these two categories, because the situation here is so unprecedented.

The film is presented as a series of many nearly-intact numbers, with virtuoso rock band and backing vocalists, and fantastic audio quality. Not to mention it's a major new body of live vocals by MJ, and his voice is goosebump-raising, even though he's guarding it. It undoubtedly deserves to be considered a concert film, and I think the astounding international success and praise are entirely deserved.

And this comes from someone who's seen The Last Waltz and Woodstock at least ten times each, worn out my records of Concert for Bangladesh and Stop Making Sense...

[situationcritical]

Who is Nikke Finke?

[kjacobsmeyer]

One of the most feared Hollywood insider bloggers:

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/10/12/091012fa_fact_friend

[MJJBunny]

Where were all the kind words when he was alive and needed them? He finally gets the respect he deserves when he's not here. Shame on those who made his life a living hell for so long.

[Irish55]

Well said. Absolutely agree with you. I saw the movie and loved it - and incredible peek into the process of putting together what would have been, by any measure, a spectacular show. Kudos to all involved - it was done with love. RIP Michael - love you more.

[PublicEnemyNumberOne]

I think that this is great. Mr. Jackson finally receives his redemption. Sadly, it only took him passing from this life to get it. The way the world dragged his name through the mud during the latter years of his was a sin before the Most High. Even though he's no longer with us, I am happy, as is Mr. Jackson, that he had the final laugh. Rest in eternal peace, MJ. :-)

[BassettHound]

Or, as Charles Foster Kane said, people will think "what I tell them to think!"
Opening-weekend box office figures are nothing more than a measure of the effectiveness of marketing and advertising. And as ticket prices keep increasing, it is a misstatememt to say a film grossed more than any other of its kind, without adjusting for inflation and ticket sales.
Speaking of which...
It's amazing what we spend our money on, and what we claim is too expensive.
(If everyone in the country were asked to pay annually an amount equal to a regular movie theater ticket (say, average $10 a year per person)....might we be able to fund health care?)

[sexyrexy]

come to think of it-- THIS IS IT.. is more akin to BEATLES.. LET IT BE..the film.

don't you just love these titles.. so definitive.. so final.

[knucklesmack]

It's not a concert film. It's a documentary.

Please, stop calling rehearsal video a 'concert film.' It's like calling boy groups 'bands.'

That said, the Jackson family is making no money off this. So go see it.

[kjacobsmeyer]

Yup. The Talking Heads' "Stop Making Sense" is a concert film. One of the best of all time. Which reminds me to watch it again.

[situationcritical]

Stop Making Sense was forgettable. In fact, I forgot it.

[Harlanlover]

@knucklesmack:
Actually 90% of the proceeds of "Michael Jackson's This Is It" goes to the MJ Estate. 10% goes to AEG.
I had the honor to go to the premiere & I've seen it 3 times after. I personally would like to contribute to MJ's legacy as much as possible, thereby adding to his children's inheritance. If watching the greatest entertainer ever born express his astounding talent accomplishes those objectives, mores the better.

[sexyrexy]

one thing this film will forever do is be a testament to his incredible talent and vision-- and how WE TOOK HIM FOR GRANTED.. when he could have unabashedly given us more joy and treats.. with it.. OUR LOSS..

as for WOOSDSTOCK. when was that f ilm released?/ 40 odd years a go?? comparing it to this just released this week-- GIVE IT TIME..

[EllaUmbrella]

Agreed.

This Is It was amazing and deserves to be recognized as a top-grossing film this year. But the $250 million opening weekend predictions were over-the-top and ridiculous, for anyone, and proves once again how hungry Sony is to make money off Michael's death. It's pathetic that anyone can view this film as a disappointment. What's disappointing yet not suprising is that people overseas care more for him than the people from his home country. And remember, moviegoers are paying to watch an "aged" pop-star rehearse -- this wasn't even the finished product. Either way, fans don't care about how much money this film makes; we care about Michael and are grateful to have seen his genius in our lifetime.

[sexyrexy]

hmm.. finally saw this yest and about to watch it again--i need to pause & assimilate it all.. but watching Mj work=-- and truly-- he ;hears; the music in his head.. etc.. I had to smile when they auditioned all those dancers-- a scene out of ALL THAT JAZZ.. how fitting.. and even ironic.. how a guy who never took a Ballet class in his life..(unlike Astaire who did) was auditioning these kids who probably took dance/ballet classes since 6-8 yrs old.. to even get there.. to be an extention of him.. loved that..

and HOW he proved & showed once & for all-- HE WAS THE BIG MAN.. Madge,Brits en co-- were still in grade school..( & so contrived doing it) this is how it's done..

MJJ is indeed SMILING up there-- and great this was released for his children..they need this..

[MakeItRightForMike]

As a baby boomer and admirer of this phenomenon, I have mixed feelings after seeing it. His skeletal physique was hard to watch. On the other hand, his magic was easy. Elvis used gluttony to mask his pain. MJ starvation, perhaps? Either way, they're both gone. As MJ once inferred, growing old is ugly. Despite this fact, after 40 years and counting this excerpt of the magician at work was stupendous; proving the maestro still had "IT."

[sexyrexy]

it's the MJ estate that'll benefit from this.. eg.. his kids.. as 90% goes to it...

[sheaintsayin]

i really appreciate your comments. when my son (28) told me that he didn't realize I was such a big Michael Jackson fan, I had too confess to him that I was, even though I may have played much more Miles and Basia and Roy Hargrove and Simply Red and Santana. I, too, took Michael for granted, and I played his music like all the rest of the soundtrack of my life - when I thought about a special moment and a certain time, and I think I regret that because I meant no disrespect.

Interestingly enough, I reminded my son that "We Are The World" was his very first sing-a-long pop song, when he was 4 in 1985, and that it was Michael's genius that created that phenomenon.