IL-Sen: Why Blagojevich Must Appoint a Placeholder
[Originally posted on my blog Senate Guru.]
There has, of course, been much speculation over who Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich will appoint to succeed President-elect Barack Obama in the U.S. Senate. One of the fundamental questions in such speculation has regarded whether Blagojevich will appoint someone who will serve as a placeholder, to only serve for the two years until the 2010 election, or whether he will appoint someone who will serve with the intention of accruing seniority and running in their own right as the incumbent in 2010.
A week and a half ago, Nate Silver and kos laid out why Blagojevich should appoint a placeholder. Silver:
If there's nothing else we learned from the Presidential race this year, it's that there's no better way to vet, challenge and season candidates than vigorously-contested primary.
kos:
Illinois has some great young talent on the way up. Let them earn the seat the old-fashioned way, the same way Obama did -- in an election.
A challenged primary is a better vetting process and is simply more democratic - that's why Blagojevich should appoint a placeholder.
Now, why is it looking like has must appoint a placeholder? Because Blagojevich's name is rapidly moving from "unpopular" to "toxic":
The circle appears to be closing in on ethically-embattled Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D). The Chicago Tribune reports today that the governor's former Congressional chief of staff, John Wyma, wore a wiretap to help federal investigators secure an indictment against him.As Illinois political expert Rich Miller writes on his Capitol Fax blog, Wyma isn't just any Blago staffer. He's one of the governor's "closest political and personal friends."
Blagojevich is tasked with appointing a successor for President-elect Barack Obama's vacant Senate seat, and this news will certainly color coverage of that decision.
Blagojevich has been sporting an approval rating in the low teens, which probably makes him as popular in Illinois as Dick Cheney is. As such, being pegged as "Blago's pick" is detrimental enough to a politician.
As we saw with the Ted Stevens corruption trial, the feds don't wiretap willy-nilly (tap your phones, maybe, but not have someone personally record conversations), and they don't get your closest confidants to wear the wire unless some real action is about to go down. (And it doesn't come out in the press that somebody wore the wire unless some real action is about to go down very soon.)
Governor Rod Blagojevich may be on the brink of becoming indicted Governor Rod Blagojevich. If Blagojevich appoints someone who is still working to raise their statewide recognition (which is pretty much any potential name in the mix), Republicans will find it very easy to tag the selection with the "Blago's pick" moniker, affixing all of the negativity around Blagojevich to the newly appointed Senator, crippling their 2010 campaign from the get-go. Maybe the crippling won't be politically fatal in blue Illinois, but why invite the anchor?
Illinois has a very deep, strong, and young bench of Democratic talent. No need to taint such a promising slate with the toxicity of one politician who may very well be on his way out. There are reasons why Blagojevich should appoint a placeholder. There are also reasons why he might have to.
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As illinoisan notes above, there are plenty of fine (that is, presumably clean) Democratic candidates. As for Republican chances in '10, they're not so good--remember, this is the party that thought that importing Alan Keyes to run against Obama was their best chance after Jack Ryan's campaign imploded. Aaron Schock, the newly elected U.S. Representative from Peoria, might have had a chance except that he will be too young to run for Senate then. It's the Dems' seat to lose...
Republicans are going to throw all the money they can at this seat when they get the chance to contest it.
Anything Blagojevich can do to help Dems chances, I'm all for it! (And personally, I think Jesse Jackson, Jr.--though young--is very good and more than ready).
Yeah, really? Ask Judy Barr Topinka about all that Republican money!
The only people who have been suggested as placeholders are veteran pols with negative baggage of their own and who are only interested in the job to add to their already ample pensions. There is nothing stopping another Dem from challenging the appointee in the primary and the Republicans will hopefully have their act together enough to really contest the seat in the fall of '10. I really don't care whether the Dems hold onto this seat - we need someone in it to who is capable of keeping it for more than a term. At this time of national crisis, it's Blago's civic responsibility to find the best possible person to fill the job. Unfortunately, that will probably the last thing he will do.
Since anyone appointed must face elections in '10, any appointee will, in fact, be a placeholder until elected despite their qualifications.
Give us your best, IL, we need it right now!
Michelle Obama would be the best choice!
What 'strong, deep, young well of talent? Name some names. Talent has never been a consideration for Illinois politicians. Connections, loyalty to machine bosses, fund raising, and being someone that someone sent are the deciders for who gets slated, who gets supported, who gets money, who gets elected. The cynical frenzy surrounding an embattled Governor's choice for a Senate replacement is ground zero for all that is wrong with our state. Racial considerations, jury pool considerations, who can help the Governor considerations...not a word on who would be a good Senator for the state. And, in this piece a suggestion to throw away two years of a Senate tenure for future cynical political considerations. One would have hoped that the hope attendant on Barack Obama's election to the presidency would fuel less Machiavellian posturing and a bit more what's best for all the citizens of our state.
What? How dare you! What's best for the People should never get in the way of what's best for me and the corporations that own me!
Alex Giannoulias, Dan Hynes, and Lisa Madigan to name just three off the top of my head. If you're concerned about connections & machines, etc, that just goes to underline the point of the post: a hard fought primary is the best way to go.
The best thing for Illinois would be for Blagojevich to resign immediately and leave the choice to Lieut. Gov. Pat Quinn.
Update. Now that Blagojevich actually has been ARRESTED and his taped phone conversations reveal him as the Caligula of Illinois politics, it's time for the General Assembly to get off the dime and IMPEACH this guy before he has the chance to appoint himself.
Are there any 80 year old pols in Illinois who'd be willing to come out of retirement for a couple of years?
I nominate former Gov. Dan Walker.
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