Marco Rubio Will Defeat Charlie Crist in the 2010 GOP Senate Primary

[Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.]

First, conservative Republican former state House Speaker Marco Rubio handed Charlie Crist embarrassment after embarrassment by obliterating Crist in numerous straw polls across Florida, confirming that Florida's conservative Republican base overwhelmingly prefers Rubio to Crist as their nominee, no matter what the DC GOP establishment and NRSC might try to dictate to Florida Republicans.

Second, Rubio shattered expectations by raising about a million dollars in the third fundraising quarter of 2009, demonstrating his campaign's viability.

And now, them polls are tightening:

Rasmussen Reports

	August 2009	October 2009
Charlie Crist	53	49
Marco Rubio	31	35
Crist Lead	22	14

In just two months, according to Rasmussen, Rubio cut Crist's lead by about one-third and pulled Crist under 50%. But maybe that's not enough data points for you.

Quinnipiac University

	February 2009	April 2009	June 2009	August 2009	October 2009
Charlie Crist	53	54	54	55	50
Marco Rubio	3	8	23	26	35
Crist Lead	50	46	31	29	15

According to Quinnipiac, in two-month intervals between February and October, Crist's lead over Rubio has sunk from 50 to 46 to 31 to 29 to 15.

Crist should be awfully worried. And he is. He is going to lose the 2010 Republican Senate primary to conservative underdog Marco Rubio.

 

Comments

[strangelet]

Oh, Guru --

I don't have a horse in this race, but I think you may be drawing your projection lines a little prematurely. To me, the key feature is that Crist has dropped from 53% to 50% (Quinnipac) between Feb 09 and Oct 09. While 50% is recognized as nervous territory for an incumbent, Crist isn't the incumbent Senator.

Rubio has shot up drastically between Feb 09 and Oct 09, but that is mostly because his early numbers were trivially low (i.e., zero statewide name-rec).

"Them polls are tightening", certainly, but if the election were next week, I think most pols would be creaming in their shorts with a 14% lead.

At this point, it looks to me like there's about 50% pro-Crist, and 50% anti-Crist plus "I don't know". Rubio has now established a good beachhead in the latter half. The remaining questions are (1) can he pull votes away from Crist? (and, no, I don't think a 53 to 50 fluctuation demonstrates that yet); and (2) how much of that other 15% can he grab?

Seems to me that this is just the beginning of the real primary campaign.

[WilliamL]

Since 2000,

the FDP failed to unseat Jeb in 2002, failed to elect a Dem., failed to turn out the vote in 2004, elect a D governor in 2006,

gained only ONE seat in the state/fed/ level in 2008. Obama's field opperation turned out the 200,000 or so votes that gave him the state.

If left to the FDP, the state wd. have went red. In the long run, since Obama wd. have still won, it would have been best in had FL went red, then perhaps there would have been the major shake up in FL that has been due since 2000.

Consider as well, Wexler is resigning mid-term. Who gives up a Congressional seat unless they had to?

Rubio or Chist will go to the Senate as the ability of the Dems to produce a canidate to beat either one is doubtful. Most likely, the Governor will be an R, and the Ds in gen. needs to commit to turnout oppeations that do not depend upon FL.

Seems that after 2000, there would have been a commitment to a concerted effort to build the opperation in FL but just does not seem to be the case, as we have scene.

[serena1313]

Republican moderates have all but disappeared because the base, the purists, have run them off. Granted a few remain, but in single digits. It is possible that Crist could lose to Rubio, but I wouldn't write him off just yet.

First of all Rubio has no intention of co-operating with Obama saying he will fight Obama on all fronts. Unsurprisingly Rove jumped on Rubio's bandwagon donating $1000 to his campaign. He calls republicans in Washington "shrill and lazy" and attacks Crist for supporting the stimulus and cap-n-trade.

However Crist is still in the game. He raised $2.4 million in the 3rd quarter compared to Rubio's $1 million. While Rubio may have won over republicans he needs independents and/or moderate democrats to win; he has not connected with either. Furthermore Rubio polls 3 points behind the Democratic challenger, Rep. Kendrick Meek, 36/33. But Crist beats Meek by 20 points: 51% 31%.

The Republican Party purists refuse to vote for a candidate who thinks negotiating with the opposition party is wise or disagrees on any point with them. Apparently if nothing gets done that is fine because settling for anything else not on their agenda is unacceptable.

How do inflexible, intolerant people manage in the real world?

[noaxe397]

Before Dems start popping champaign corks over this news, I think FL will go the way of VA, where the Dems have a governor candidate who is running a lousy campaign and who will lose in November, plucking defeat from the jaws of victory.

The GOP will seize on this ONE off year victory to claim the drought is over and they are coming back strong.

The Dems, always in danger of being out-psyched by the GOP message machine, will buy into this, raising their self doubt, and start getting nervous, as well as careless, as 2010/12 approaches and it is the DEMS who will hand over national control to the Republicans rather than Republicans actually winning it back based on the issues.

BTW, watch out for the PA senate race. And watch out for PA going red in 2012.

[NeoLiberal]

I couldn't disagree more. The stats don't bear this out yet.

Florida is fickle and there are too many variables in 2010 to consider, especially the health care debate, which will definitely heighten election participation of seniors, a large segment of the registered voting population in that state.

[noaxe397]

I think you are making my point about FL. The seniors would be AGAINST the Dem candidate (seen as the natural extension of the president) because that demographic is one BO already has problems with. The "Hands off Medicare" rant by the teabaggers will put the HC issue in the Gop column.

[CommunistUtopia]

Deeds campaign is not that bad. It's just that the current White House is so unpopular that the Independents and moderates have fled and are voting for the Rethugs.

[noaxe397]

No, Deeds's campaign is awful, following the same go-it-aline strategy Gore followed in 2000 that caused him to lose.

Beside, the president is not unpopular. His personal approval ratings are in the 60% area (just like Reagan) and his job performance is up to 57% (unlike Reagan.

[Grunty1]

Ah I see. More fantasy based wishful thinking, without an ounce of fact.

[deepsouthfugee]

I hope the Republicans continue this practice of nominating the most far-right conservatives in each and every contest. Then there'll be even fewer of them to deal with than there are now.

[jcwtts1]

"He is going to lose the 2010 Republican Senate primary to conservative underdog Marco Rubio."

Who we are then going to be by double digit points.

Chalk Florida up for us, add, OH, MO, NH, NC, KY and LA.

[noaxe397]

Prediction:

Obama will lose every state you mention in 2012 plus VA.

That is why he will not be re-elected.

[NeoLiberal]

Too early on that one. Election outcomes can shift almost overnight.

Besides---McCain carried MO, KY and LA in 2008 (a mere 23 electoral votes), not BHO.

BHO received 192 more electoral votes than McCain, or 95 more than then 270 he needed to win the election.

The other 3 states you mention (NC, NH and OH) will have 37 electoral votes among them in 2012. Where will he lose the additional 59 to lose the election?

Come on now, Mr Statistician. Give me the numbers...

[iamjones]

crist does not and would not care because he will be running for the republican presidential nomination in 2012 anyway. hence, the faux marriage and all the posturing.

[CommunistUtopia]

Crist's record speaks for itself. Deficit spending, high unemployment, and net out migration in 2008 for the first time in about 50 years. Conservatism appears to be ascending.

[noaxe397]

Isn't defecit spending and high unemployment the sina qua non of conservatism? It seems during the 16 years of the two most conservative presidents in our lifetime (Reagan and Bush43) that is ALL we had.

The unemployment rate under Reagan, for 10 straight months in 1982-83 was over 10%.
His budget defecits (often GREATER than the ones in Congress's budgets) were record setters.

The unemployment rate under Bush increased 95% from Jan, 2001 to Jan 2009, (3.9% to 7.6%)
His budgets DOUBLED the accumulated debt of the country since its founding.


Yes, please, keep that conservatism coming.

And keep up the self delusion and self loathing that is the hallmark of true conservatism in America today.

[CommunistUtopia]

Reagan's deficit was because The Democrats who controlled Congress, namely Tip O'Neil, would not go along with any of Reagan's cuts in the budget. Reagan wanted to eliminate entire government departments but the democrats cried each time. Reagans' early woes were attributed to the mess from the Carter years.

Now, we have a $1.4 trillion deficit that we can pay for or pass along to our children. We also have unemployment at 10% and it appears to be rising.

Libs are the ones that are the self-loathing ones. Conservatives believe in American exceptionalism, freedom, and limited government.

[Grunty1]

[Deficit spending, high unemployment, and net out migration in 2008 for the first time in about 50 years. ]

That's what conservatism has BEEN for 30 years now. What's the difference?

[den1953]

So the people from Florida would rather vote for no government help and vote for someone who will shut them out of better schools and money for social services sounds like a great idea to me i'm glad i don't live there good luck with that!

[OneLiberalLady]

Not the people of Florida, this is a poll of the Republican base. Hope the Dems run a good strong candidate.....maybe the Guvship is ripe for picking.

[WinterParkMom]

Guru, I live in Florida and consider myself plugged in, but can't find out about any dem's up for this election. What do you or anyone here know? I think Wasserman-Shultz should throw her hat in the ring. She'd demolish Rubio AND Crist together.

[jcwtts1]

Kendrick meeks

[deepsouthfugee]

I would love to see Wasserman-Schultz run!

[jcwtts1]

recovering from multiple tumors and cancer treatments... right? State wide campaign might be too much for her right now. But yeah, I love her.

J

[RhodaA]

It is good news. Just like the NY-23 House race. The Dem (Owens) is leading in a race that hasn't gone democratic since the mid-1800's, because of the far-right Republication candidate who soaked up votes from the more moderate Republican. So yes, if the Dems choose a good candiate, they can pick up that senate seat.

Strategy: "Divide and Conquer"

[timewaster2dcore]

That would be an awfully good news if Rubio could defeat Crist. Dems need to just field a strong nominee, Rubio defeated, and the GOP will lose that seat. BTW, how is Alan Grayson's popularity in Florida?

[WinterParkMom]

Pretty danged high except for our local Orlando tv stations. Boy they show their contempt everytime they have to report on him or interview him.

[TryToBeFlexible]

I have watched Grayson being interviewed on local channels, and the interview was polite, and Grayson just shines.

[winningticket]

Marc Rubio will win the primary but will lose the general, unless the Democrats put up someone totally worthless.

[AnnfromCA]

Crist is just another suit, and people know it. It's time for a change.

[OneLiberalLady]

Change is good. Vote Dem, Floridians.

[CommunistUtopia]

I hate to say it but Hope and Change have not worked for me. I have switched over and am voting for the Rethugs.

[DavidDial]

I hope the far right feels real cocky about this because if Charley Crist loses the primary, Florida's next governor will be a Democrat.