[Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.]
First, conservative Republican former state House Speaker Marco Rubio handed Charlie Crist embarrassment after embarrassment by obliterating Crist in numerous straw polls across Florida, confirming that Florida's conservative Republican base overwhelmingly prefers Rubio to Crist as their nominee, no matter what the DC GOP establishment and NRSC might try to dictate to Florida Republicans.
Second, Rubio shattered expectations by raising about a million dollars in the third fundraising quarter of 2009, demonstrating his campaign's viability.
And now, them polls are tightening:
| August 2009 | October 2009 | |
| Charlie Crist | ||
| Marco Rubio | ||
| Crist Lead |
In just two months, according to Rasmussen, Rubio cut Crist's lead by about one-third and pulled Crist under 50%. But maybe that's not enough data points for you.
| February 2009 | April 2009 | June 2009 | August 2009 | October 2009 | |
| Charlie Crist | |||||
| Marco Rubio | |||||
| Crist Lead |
According to Quinnipiac, in two-month intervals between February and October, Crist's lead over Rubio has sunk from 50 to 46 to 31 to 29 to 15.
Crist should be awfully worried. And he is. He is going to lose the 2010 Republican Senate primary to conservative underdog Marco Rubio.
Would a truly patriotic American defend the practice of insanely profitable drug companies charging exorbitant fees for medicines that the elderly and infirm cannot afford?
Matt Mackowiak: Crist's Senate Candidacy Undercut by Claims, Power Grab
As the open U.S. Senate race in Florida heats up, the record of incumbent Governor Charlie Crist is rightly being examined by the news media, conservative activists and Florida voters.
David Sirota: The American Left Does Not Exist - Or at Least Not in the Way It Seems
The two standards -- freak out on Republicans when they do something awful, say nothing about Democrats when they do the same thing -- is the canary in the coal mine.
I don't have a horse in this race, but I think you may be drawing your projection lines a little prematurely. To me, the key feature is that Crist has dropped from 53% to 50% (Quinnipac) between Feb 09 and Oct 09. While 50% is recognized as nervous territory for an incumbent, Crist isn't the incumbent Senator.
Rubio has shot up drastically between Feb 09 and Oct 09, but that is mostly because his early numbers were trivially low (i.e., zero statewide name-rec).
"Them polls are tightening", certainly, but if the election were next week, I think most pols would be creaming in their shorts with a 14% lead.
At this point, it looks to me like there's about 50% pro-Crist, and 50% anti-Crist plus "I don't know". Rubio has now established a good beachhead in the latter half. The remaining questions are (1) can he pull votes away from Crist? (and, no, I don't think a 53 to 50 fluctuation demonstrates that yet); and (2) how much of that other 15% can he grab?
Seems to me that this is just the beginning of the real primary campaign.
the FDP failed to unseat Jeb in 2002, failed to elect a Dem., failed to turn out the vote in 2004, elect a D governor in 2006,
gained only ONE seat in the state/fed/ level in 2008. Obama's field opperation turned out the 200,000 or so votes that gave him the state.
If left to the FDP, the state wd. have went red. In the long run, since Obama wd. have still won, it would have been best in had FL went red, then perhaps there would have been the major shake up in FL that has been due since 2000.
Consider as well, Wexler is resigning mid-term. Who gives up a Congressional seat unless they had to?
Rubio or Chist will go to the Senate as the ability of the Dems to produce a canidate to beat either one is doubtful. Most likely, the Governor will be an R, and the Ds in gen. needs to commit to turnout oppeations that do not depend upon FL.
Seems that after 2000, there would have been a commitment to a concerted effort to build the opperation in FL but just does not seem to be the case, as we have scene.
First of all Rubio has no intention of co-operating with Obama saying he will fight Obama on all fronts. Unsurprisingly Rove jumped on Rubio's bandwagon donating $1000 to his campaign. He calls republicans in Washington "shrill and lazy" and attacks Crist for supporting the stimulus and cap-n-trade.
However Crist is still in the game. He raised $2.4 million in the 3rd quarter compared to Rubio's $1 million. While Rubio may have won over republicans he needs independents and/or moderate democrats to win; he has not connected with either. Furthermore Rubio polls 3 points behind the Democratic challenger, Rep. Kendrick Meek, 36/33. But Crist beats Meek by 20 points: 51% 31%.
The Republican Party purists refuse to vote for a candidate who thinks negotiating with the opposition party is wise or disagrees on any point with them. Apparently if nothing gets done that is fine because settling for anything else not on their agenda is unacceptable.
How do inflexible, intolerant people manage in the real world?
The GOP will seize on this ONE off year victory to claim the drought is over and they are coming back strong.
The Dems, always in danger of being out-psyched by the GOP message machine, will buy into this, raising their self doubt, and start getting nervous, as well as careless, as 2010/12 approaches and it is the DEMS who will hand over national control to the Republicans rather than Republicans actually winning it back based on the issues.
BTW, watch out for the PA senate race. And watch out for PA going red in 2012.
Florida is fickle and there are too many variables in 2010 to consider, especially the health care debate, which will definitely heighten election participation of seniors, a large segment of the registered voting population in that state.
Beside, the president is not unpopular. His personal approval ratings are in the 60% area (just like Reagan) and his job performance is up to 57% (unlike Reagan.
Who we are then going to be by double digit points.
Chalk Florida up for us, add, OH, MO, NH, NC, KY and LA.
Obama will lose every state you mention in 2012 plus VA.
That is why he will not be re-elected.
Besides---McCain carried MO, KY and LA in 2008 (a mere 23 electoral votes), not BHO.
BHO received 192 more electoral votes than McCain, or 95 more than then 270 he needed to win the election.
The other 3 states you mention (NC, NH and OH) will have 37 electoral votes among them in 2012. Where will he lose the additional 59 to lose the election?
Come on now, Mr Statistician. Give me the numbers...
The unemployment rate under Reagan, for 10 straight months in 1982-83 was over 10%.
His budget defecits (often GREATER than the ones in Congress's budgets) were record setters.
The unemployment rate under Bush increased 95% from Jan, 2001 to Jan 2009, (3.9% to 7.6%)
His budgets DOUBLED the accumulated debt of the country since its founding.
Yes, please, keep that conservatism coming.
And keep up the self delusion and self loathing that is the hallmark of true conservatism in America today.
Now, we have a $1.4 trillion deficit that we can pay for or pass along to our children. We also have unemployment at 10% and it appears to be rising.
Libs are the ones that are the self-loathing ones. Conservatives believe in American exceptionalism, freedom, and limited government.
That's what conservatism has BEEN for 30 years now. What's the difference?
Strategy: "Divide and Conquer"