1.0 link 13096 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/thomas-de-zengotita/a-book-we-need-to-think-a_b_13096.html The book is called Expert Political Judgment : How Good is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock. The answer is shocking at first, but makes perfect sense on further reflection. It seems that experts (not only in politics but other areas as well) are worse judges of what is likely to happen than a reasonably well-informed ordinary citizen. How could this be? Well, the real fun is in the details of the research, but the common-sense...

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