All of McCain's Base Belongs to Us: Why It Won't Even Be Close
It's over.
It's mathematically impossible for John McCain to win.
Were the great Tim Russert still with us, he would call the election for Obama at 7pm Eastern time. No, I'm not talking about November 4th -- I mean tonight.
Here we are in the present -- an electric casserole of breaking news ("Obama wears flag pin!"), Internet warfare ("lol McCain is teh oldz!"), and screaming gas bags who are terrified of women ("We'll do it LIVE!"). The MSM is trying to convince us that we're in for a twelve-round brawl. That McCain's going to give Obama a run for his $500M. That's all well and good, and I'm sure it'll make for some riveting television -- if you're the type of person who still watches Harlem Globetrotters games on the edge of your seat, convinced the Washington Generals will pull this one out.
But the truth is, it's not going to be close. Not even a little bit.
Imagine yourself in a high school history class a century from now. Imagine the teacher beginning the section on the elections of 2008 by setting the scene: "America's economy was in flames, we were fighting two wars with no end in sight, and global warming was accelerating at an alarming rate. The most despised president in 150 years was nearing the end of his two corruption-ridden terms, and had heartily endorsed his successor, John McCain -- who, despite a few ideological differences, planned on keeping the status quo intact. Running against him was a lightning-in-a-bottle candidate named Barack Obama. A candidate who had nearly six times the money to spend, drew crowds of 70,000, and who received support from a surprising number of disenfranchised Republicans -- even some of the Evangelicals who swept Bush to power. Obama was the story. He captured the imagination of young Americans and the world. Now, by a show of hands -- who thinks McCain won that election?" (A particularly easy question, since they're sitting in Barack Obama High).
Whatever you think about McCain -- whether you love him or hate him -- you can't deny that he's a victim of horrible timing. Everywhere you look, there are tidal forces -- geopolitical, economic, and social forces -- trending in Obama's favor. McCain is running on a war record in a country aching for peace. He's running on an admitted lack of economic knowledge in a country aching for economic reform. Healthcare, foreign policy, energy -- in each case his sales pitch is twenty years behind the curve, much like the declining party for which he has the unfortunate honor of being standard bearer. Worst of all, his base doesn't even like him. Sure, they might pull that lever, but they'll be holding their noses with the other hand. If Obama's base is "fired up and ready to go," McCain's base is more like "reheated and I'll get around to it."
All McCain's base are belong to us.
Call it whatever you want: arrogance, a jinx -- but let's be honest with ourselves -- this thing is over. I know, I know. "A lot can happen between now and November." I know that we Democrats are used to scurrying around like we're on Meerkat Manor, with a sky full of Neocon hawks overhead. I know that we've perfected the art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But can't you feel it in the smog-kissed air? Feel that this year is different? This year, we've got a candidate who refuses to cower in the face of the old Rove/Atwater/Dobson line of attack. A candidate who understands that you can't change the world unless you win, and that you don't have to sell your soul to do it. And despite some bruises, we've got a Democratic Party on its way toward unprecedented unity and energy.
I don't care if footage of Obama snorting coke off Scarlett Johansson's boobs surfaces in late October. All it will do is bolster his standing with white males. I don't care if McCain is introduced by a resurrected Jesus Christ at the convention. All it will do is piss off Joe Lieberman. McCain won't just be defeated, he'll be crushed. And not just Bob Dole crushed, but crushed in a way that redefines the political map for the next 25 years.
He'll be crushed so decidedly, that bartenders will coin a new drink called "The McCrush" -- vodka and Orange Crush over crushed ice, served in a hollow flip-flop with a sprig of pandering. The networks will switch over to infomercials at 10pm on Election Night, because they'll have nothing left to cover after Obama's victory speech. Webster's will add the word "McCained" to its thesaurus entry for "crushed." Gamers will start taunting each other with new words like "Obampwnd!" and "McNoob!." Somewhere, out there in the everlasting ether of death, Barry Goldwater will feel better about himself.
Jinx or no jinx, I'm not going to be a Meerkat Democrat -- not this year. This year, I'm celebrating the Fourth with some burgers, some fireworks, and a nice, cool McCrush.
This year I'm the friggin' hawk.
Seth Grahame-Smith is the author of Pardon My President: Ready-to-Mail Apologies for Eight Years of George W. Bush
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I'm thinking McCain is the lesser of two evils here. Sorry I couldn't buy into the fake hoopla.
You are so RIGHT! So right it's obvious!
EVERYONE IN THIS COUNTRY IS ALL FIRED UP
FOR SOMEONE WHO ACTUALLY HAS A BRAIN
WHO ACTUALLY HAS REAL COURAGE
WHO STILL HAS A HEART
WE DESERVE BETTER THAN ROVE AND COMPANY
AND WE ARE GOING TO GET IT
I wonder if everyone understand the "All your base..." reference. ;)
http://you
Well I sure missed this until today... as for those who are not going to celebrate this just yet... Then be full of hope because that is what this is all about. Turing away from the long sad dark days of the past and looking forward to change and hope of we the people, not just B.O. Thanks for the All your Base info somehow it sure missed me!
Thoroughly enjoyed that post. I know Obama is going to win too. What cracks me up, is all of these people acting like people haven't already picked their candidate. While we were a little afraid for the Hillary votes, we knew in our hearts that real democrats always come home. The people voting for McLastinClass were always going to vote more of the same. I think that's 28% of Americans.
And real Democrats will vote for a real Democrat: Hillary Clinton. Either at the Convention or by write-in if necessary there are only a handful of Democrats who will go for McCain UNLESS they live in a red state. Obama is the one running for George Bush's third term.
But I hope there are lots of other folks like you and Mr. Grahame-Smith. REEEELAAAAAXE! Just let the chips fall where they may.
Real democrats? What a stupid statement, I'm curious how many millions of idiots there are who are losing sight of the fact that they are weakening the solidarity that would assure us of the change we need. Obama has taken the first huge step in a government run by the people with his legislation that reveals budget and spending legislation before the house and senate. This takes the blind control out of the governments hands and puts it right in the hands of the public.
This isn't about democrats and republicans there are good elected officials on both sides just as there are idiot voters on both sides. We need to eliminate the good ole boy politicians who would perpetuate bad government and have enough WELL INFORMED voters making their voice heard for good thoughtful government. Mindless faith voters put bush in office without oversight or accountability and they would do it again.
Forgot to tell you that you are wrong: the people haven't already picked their candidate. Just because Obama won more delegates in the Democratic primaries and caucuses, doesn't mean he has come anywhere close to winning a national election. Actually, he did not have the majority of the voters voting in the primaries or a caucus because caucuses are not very democratic at all and very few people, perhaps 15,000 average, vote in a caucus. Not the case in the primaries. The "picking" of a nominee btw doesn't happen until the Democratic Convention, this year in Denver. And Hillary Clinton will have her name on the ballot or the Democratic Party can just say goodbye to a huge number of their members, and hard workers.
The GOP hasn't even started the real smearing yet. There are millions who think that watching an attack ad makes them well informed. Have you noticed that many people speak in GOP talking points and they think they thought them up themselves?
This is no time to count chickens.
you are so right! People who watch Fox think they are so bright when they repeat all that has been said there.
I am convinced Obama will win but i dont think it will be that easy.
Obama has had his rough days (Hillary, Rev Wright etc) and he survived. Mcsame has not had his rough days yet, and they will come. And i hope he has them in October when it will be too late.
America...
Obama for Change!!!!!!!!!
Look at the wonderful change we had in Congress this last go around. Lead by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. They haven't done a darn thing that counts. Now in the middle of a financial crisis they, again, are on vacation. We don't need change, we need action.
"McCain has no chance to survive make your time - ha ha ha!"
I hope you're right, Seth; I would urge a LITTLE more caution, but I think that if Obama visibly sticks to his principles, he could very well have this one in the bag.
I don't think I can agree with you Seth.
America today votes for the highest office in the land based on sound bites.
American politicians are destroyed by swift boating - they did it to McCain in 2000 and 2004.
The MSM can only read one side's script at a time. They were for Obama because they were against Clinton. Now it's McCain's turn on top.
I have been a wee bit nervous with all the hullabaloo about Obama becoming more centrist and the Wesley Clark malarky and the lefty's getting pissed off at Obama. blah blah blah. Listen we need to win and I am thrilled that Barack is as smart as he is. Cool down my little chickadees, let's win first.
This is all very cheery, but I think Obama's prospects are iffy at best, and not because of John McCain who's a thoroughly wretched candidate. Obama's problem is the corporate media. They've already decided on the "narrative" that they think will save McCain's bacon:
Obama is an elitist flip-flopper with no principles. McCain is a straight-talking maverick who can't be criticized by anyone for anything because (1) he's a war hero and (2) he's old and it's politically incorrect "agism" to criticize an old man for saying something one week and then denying he ever said it the next.
The media simply won't inform the public about all the disturbing facts on McCain such as his association with convicted Watergate felon G. Gordon Liddy, and those of his lobbyist campaign handlers. I'll bet most people don't realize that McCain's off-shore drilling scheme won't do a thing to lower anybody's gas prices.
Obama may have moved from the center-left closer to the center, but McCain has flip-flopped his way from the center-right not toward the center, but all the way to the lunatic fringes of the radical right. The direction McCain is going -- and wants to take the country with him -- is pretty obvious to anyone who follows non-corporate news sources.
Gosh. Seth may be right. I hope he is. But your point about the role of the corporate media is spot on.
spacecadet (it's hard to take you seriously with that name)
You may be considering Obama's flip flopping as something it's not, there are many good politicians, many defined as dems, who are forced to concede legislations up for vote because of issues such as overwhelming uninformed public support or knowledge of adverse reactions to a policy that isn't being taken into account by the uninformed. Republicans have built a machine on playing spins on the people that incorrectly represent ulterior motives.
If you read about the reasons Obama gives for everything he does there is always reasons we may have not taken into account. This is a different style of dealing with the public than republicans who throw out the catch phrases and don't bother with the supporting explanations.
Mcain was asked at a town hall meeting directly "will drilling for more oil lower the price of gas"? He responded with "probably not, it just has a psychological benefit". This is what we are up against, lights are on but nobody's home. Drilling for more oil isn't even what the issue is, it is lifting bans on protected areas. We are already exploring and developing new oil at a maximum pace. Refineries are not at maximum output either.
I have to say for the first time in my adult life I don't know who to vote for...I cannot vote for McCain or Obama...do
yep....vot
Nader raises his ugly head once every 4-8 years for personal attention and glory. In between you never hear from him. NO WAY he should be president.
Same here. Would have voted for Obama as my second choice after Hillary until I check the Chicago newspapers and Obamas history. Changed my mine. McCain is more exceptable as a person but his politics stink. Voting for non of the above for President.
When did second graders get the vote. I take Acception! In my mine, that is jus not write!
I must agree that McCain is exceptable, however. I take exception to almost everything he has ever done. Why don't you check some history re: McCain. He's dispicable in almost every way.
NOPE.
Vote for Obama.
Yes. I am having the exact same experience. And seeing the complacent attitude among Obama's supporters (like in this article) does NOTHING to make me think he can win. I think the Republicans are going to scare the heck out of people about Obama and McCain will get elected as the "safe" choice. Obama's core supporters have gotten so complacent and smug that I suspect that most of them won't even bother voting.
As for myself... I agree with you... for the the first time in my adult life, I have nobody I can whole heartedly embrace.
i don't know what to tell you. Maybe you should look more closely at platforms? Go with your gut, a la Bush? I can tell you this, Obama's supporters are not complacent. I will be voting early and often. By often I intend to drive a van and deliver eldery shut ins to the polls. I'm goign to ensure that even my laziest and most apathetic friends get to the polls. I'm only one of thousands of organizers in my area. Obama supporters may be a lot of things, complacent ain't one of them.
Posted a comment to you earlier, Amathyme, but apparently got lost in the shuffle here at HuffPo. There are many, many Democrats, women AND men, who do not want to vote for Obama and can't bring themselves to vote for McCain. There are many sites you might explore if you are interested; Clinton Democrats . com is one. And there are those of us who are writing SDs and pledged delegates to stick with Hillary on the first ballot. You can join some of these efforts as well or you can write to SDs and pledged delegates you know and urge them to stand with Hillary. If she is not the nominee, then blue staters can write in her name. You have to check with the state you are in to see whether it is possible and probable. New York has an easy way and the write ins are counted and recorded. Red staters might want to vote for McCain or not vote for president.
Is this a joke? This is the nation that voted for a man who could not name a single middle eastern leader and who answered the question, "who is your favorite philosopher?" with Jesus Christ... because he knows no philosophers nor any philosophy. Our fellow country men and women are just not this logical and let's face it, just not this smart. Obviously, people vote according to something other than what's in their best interest, the country's, the planet's or the world.
And please don't sleep on the deep-seated racism in the country...
I got HOPE...not delusion.
Jesus Christ was a philosopher, a prophet and more. The man was right.
You had better rethink your statement that people are 'not this smart'. If they disagree with you try learning why before you call them names or demean them with silly labels.
How do you know you are smarter than they are? Because you think different ?? Who says you know even the basics about anything?
All of us are imperfect. Give your fellow man a little credit.
Excuse me,Jesus would only be considered a philosopher if he's NOT god! You can't have it both ways! If he's god then his "teachings" are the absolute truth of the Universe and not subject to debate! Get it? Got it! Good!
it's hard to give your fellow man credit when he is subject to taking every line dished out by proven liars and not giving it another look. My favorite is "we need to drill for more oil". Anybody that took the time to look at and think about the facts would arive at one conclusion and be pissed off for being played like an ignorant chump.
1) All of the offshore drilling rigs are being used and are leased out for the next five years
2) The pace of exploration and development companies working on known and approved reserves is at a higher pace than has been the case for some time.
3) Oil is a commodity, increased supplies here will not affect the price of oil in general as set by the rest of the world.
4) If an oil industry is posting record profits why would they then raise prices? Price increases are only real and needed if the industry is in danger of losing money We could have lower prices in a week if we got pissed off by being raped and our economy brought to it's knees. Simply demand prices be rolled back to $2.50 a gallon until they can prove a hardship that warrants an increase. We subsidize them so let it be for losses when that actually happens. It is the resposibility of the government to oversee and regulate an industry that has the power to bankrupt the airlines and trucking companies.
elroy: Yup. Because the past eight years have been SO bad that all but the most hopeless Kool-Aid swiggers realize it sucked, and because most of the real Kool Aid swiggers aren't enthusiastic about McCain.
So the short answer to your question is: Yup, that's right!
This has been my take on the election for some time.
The nation was as close to evenly divided as makes no difference in the past two elections, and regardless of the candidates, since then ALL the macro events that tend to influence election results have stacked up against the incumbant party--a bad war, a recession, a no longer deniable record of staggering incompetence and corruption, Katrina, intra-party schism, busted ideology, dearth of plausible ideas, and a general feeling of dpeletion and exhaustion
Many of these are sufficient to decide an election all on their own, and the party is facing them all at the same time.
Add in Obama's manifest talent as a campaigner in comparison with McCain's weakness, and any result save a democratic party landslide looks like the longest of shots.
Given basic campaigning competence, the democratic party has to be seen as the inevitible winner.
Hmmm.. what about Obama's base?
He seems to be rolling us on at least one issue daily...
FISA, capital punishment ....... where does he stand on NAFTA anyway?
Faith based initiative
You need to pay attention to the reasons Obama is seemingly rolling over on issues, they are never cut and dried, I appreciate the fact that there are good reasons which is refreshing in and of itself, when have Republicans ever tried to give reasons, there style is to play the opposition spin and let you come to the inevitable conlusions you do, that they were right based on blind faith.
The power of possitive thinking doesn't always work - you dreamer !!!!
I like your dream Seth. With so many nbaysayers and negativists second-guessing Obama, I am ready for some positive juice. Thank you for for a positive and foward-looking article. I am looking forward to the new drink, 'McCrush..
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