All of McCain's Base Belongs to Us: Why It Won't Even Be Close

It's over.

It's mathematically impossible for John McCain to win.

Were the great Tim Russert still with us, he would call the election for Obama at 7pm Eastern time. No, I'm not talking about November 4th -- I mean tonight.

Here we are in the present -- an electric casserole of breaking news ("Obama wears flag pin!"), Internet warfare ("lol McCain is teh oldz!"), and screaming gas bags who are terrified of women ("We'll do it LIVE!"). The MSM is trying to convince us that we're in for a twelve-round brawl. That McCain's going to give Obama a run for his $500M. That's all well and good, and I'm sure it'll make for some riveting television -- if you're the type of person who still watches Harlem Globetrotters games on the edge of your seat, convinced the Washington Generals will pull this one out.

But the truth is, it's not going to be close. Not even a little bit.

Imagine yourself in a high school history class a century from now. Imagine the teacher beginning the section on the elections of 2008 by setting the scene: "America's economy was in flames, we were fighting two wars with no end in sight, and global warming was accelerating at an alarming rate. The most despised president in 150 years was nearing the end of his two corruption-ridden terms, and had heartily endorsed his successor, John McCain -- who, despite a few ideological differences, planned on keeping the status quo intact. Running against him was a lightning-in-a-bottle candidate named Barack Obama. A candidate who had nearly six times the money to spend, drew crowds of 70,000, and who received support from a surprising number of disenfranchised Republicans -- even some of the Evangelicals who swept Bush to power. Obama was the story. He captured the imagination of young Americans and the world. Now, by a show of hands -- who thinks McCain won that election?" (A particularly easy question, since they're sitting in Barack Obama High).

Whatever you think about McCain -- whether you love him or hate him -- you can't deny that he's a victim of horrible timing. Everywhere you look, there are tidal forces -- geopolitical, economic, and social forces -- trending in Obama's favor. McCain is running on a war record in a country aching for peace. He's running on an admitted lack of economic knowledge in a country aching for economic reform. Healthcare, foreign policy, energy -- in each case his sales pitch is twenty years behind the curve, much like the declining party for which he has the unfortunate honor of being standard bearer. Worst of all, his base doesn't even like him. Sure, they might pull that lever, but they'll be holding their noses with the other hand. If Obama's base is "fired up and ready to go," McCain's base is more like "reheated and I'll get around to it."

All McCain's base are belong to us.

Call it whatever you want: arrogance, a jinx -- but let's be honest with ourselves -- this thing is over. I know, I know. "A lot can happen between now and November." I know that we Democrats are used to scurrying around like we're on Meerkat Manor, with a sky full of Neocon hawks overhead. I know that we've perfected the art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But can't you feel it in the smog-kissed air? Feel that this year is different? This year, we've got a candidate who refuses to cower in the face of the old Rove/Atwater/Dobson line of attack. A candidate who understands that you can't change the world unless you win, and that you don't have to sell your soul to do it. And despite some bruises, we've got a Democratic Party on its way toward unprecedented unity and energy.

I don't care if footage of Obama snorting coke off Scarlett Johansson's boobs surfaces in late October. All it will do is bolster his standing with white males. I don't care if McCain is introduced by a resurrected Jesus Christ at the convention. All it will do is piss off Joe Lieberman. McCain won't just be defeated, he'll be crushed. And not just Bob Dole crushed, but crushed in a way that redefines the political map for the next 25 years.

He'll be crushed so decidedly, that bartenders will coin a new drink called "The McCrush" -- vodka and Orange Crush over crushed ice, served in a hollow flip-flop with a sprig of pandering. The networks will switch over to infomercials at 10pm on Election Night, because they'll have nothing left to cover after Obama's victory speech. Webster's will add the word "McCained" to its thesaurus entry for "crushed." Gamers will start taunting each other with new words like "Obampwnd!" and "McNoob!." Somewhere, out there in the everlasting ether of death, Barry Goldwater will feel better about himself.

Jinx or no jinx, I'm not going to be a Meerkat Democrat -- not this year. This year, I'm celebrating the Fourth with some burgers, some fireworks, and a nice, cool McCrush.

This year I'm the friggin' hawk.

Seth Grahame-Smith is the author of Pardon My President: Ready-to-Mail Apologies for Eight Years of George W. Bush

Comments

[JimR]

Talk about counting your chickens before they hatch... The parties haven't had their conventions yet. A LOT can happen between now and November. I want Obama to win but it would be extremely foolish and dangerous to get overconfident and complacent just yet.

[jlmealer]

I don't think so.
McCain has the prsidency clinched with all but the most liberal anti-Americans such as yourself.

All you are doing is calling for about 100 nutcases to hone up their long range sniper skills or crude bomb making lack of skills to attack crowds of Obama supporters, with your idiotic scare tactics. You should seriously think before you post such BS as you are endangering large groups of people who could be harmed by the pro-American nutcases that absolutely will not allow radical leftwing anti-American's to run the White House.

Politics os one thing, but inciting edgy people to do bad things is another!

Please tread lightly.. I have spoken with some of these people and they are on edge as it is.

[Draterus]

Ummmmmm... What?

[gnoice]

McCain has the presidency clinched ? Har-har, joke of the political season!!

idiotic scare tactics ?

Where are the scare tactics in this posting? Unless you're afraid of being McCrushed. Truth hurts, eh, McTroll?

[whatnowgop]

A Bush 21 percenter speaks. Let's face it, Republicans will need a hell of a lot of crooked voting machines and caging list along with a massive army of nitwits manning the polls trying to slow the vote down in Democratic areas to even make it close enough to attempt another theft. This time there will also be a army of people at the polls telling these Facist to crawl back in their snake holes.

Maybe you haven't realized that Americans are sick and tired of the GOP crime wave since Bush was coronated king. The more the swift boaters attack Obama the worse it gets for the GOP and they don't even realize it. This will play in Obama's favor becausse they left a really bad taste in the mouths of many people that grew tired of that style politics. Even some of the Sheeple that are hurting in their pocket books have started to wake up. Slimey swifties didn't do Rove any good in 2006 and it looks like he didn't learn from that. Be thankful you still have lap dogs like FOX, ABC, and MSNBC with Chirs Matthews that is hiding McCain from scrutiny. They won't help either. The only ones that watch them wouldn't have voted for Obama anyway. More people are choosing the Internet or other channels to get their views on politics.

[Kwaayesnama]

You might want to check McCain's campain position papers. After all,
in his eternal quest for the Republican nomination, McCain has
adopted virtually the entire Bush agenda, often reversing long held
positions and compromising supposed core principles. From Iraq, tax
cuts for the wealthy, broken promises on the deficit to opposition to
SCHIP, tax credits for health care, overturning Roe v. Wade and a
right-wing Supreme Court, without question John McCain represents a
third Bush term.

[sangsue]

I see. You're saying that your friends are going to go to the election polling stations and kill anyone who votes for Obama?

[PoliSci2008]

So sayeth Seth, so let it be done!

Obama/Clar­k-Edwards- 08

[heavyrunner]

The real debate right now is between Nader and Obama. Who has the best plan to lift our nation out of these dark times?

Things are serious, and we must choose our leaders and platforms carefully this time.

I am not sure who is right on each issue, but we need to hear a debate that includes Nader. McCain's ideas, 20 years out of date, do not really deserve to even be on the stage.

[WillfromSF]

Yeah, you wish. Obviously you're a McCain supporter who wants Nader to take votes away from Obama. Go back to Rush Limbaugh and tell him it didn't work.

[Nivramel]

Seth you are either silly or naive you don't even understand the people of the country you are living in. You sound like a newcomer or you have consumed too much kool-aid. It is going to be close you are going to see a block of voters voting in numbers that you have never seen before.

[SILVANUS]

Too manyAmericans are anti-psychology, anti-intellectual, devoid of self-awareness or critical thinking, and easily swayed by emotional push-buttons, thanks to the success of dumbed-down media, crap like Faux News, and infotainment now reforming and rearranging brains as we 'blog' on, so don't count on it.

The sheep voted against themselves twice, and repeatedly 'identify with the aggressor' like any doofus in high school wanting to be the a-hole Prom King.

Submerged self-loathing and defense of their own mediocrity compels them to vote for their own extinction. "Jes' good ol' folks." right. Bah bah bah

[magen]

Why do most regular Americans already know this, but the MSM still reports on this election as if McWar has a chance??????

Ratings over truth.

[sdbsingle1]

It's like a Championship game, or series in where you have to be fair in it. They did the same thing in the Dem. Primary to Hillary, when it was clear in March that this thing was a wrap.

McCain will win some states, let's be clear, but he won't even win Arizona and that is his turf.

He nor any Republican will touch Obama for the next 8 years, so that can be booked, and hopefully he can not be bothered with death threats, or other craziness.

This is not a rock star, but a rock that stands firm on his beliefs, and I am saddened that people, especially Fixed Noise can continually report on things that make no sense, and try to destroy this man when they need to worry about why their Pres. continues to mess up without an utterance of forgiveness.

It's easy to say America is the greatest country on Earth, when you haven't been through much, and your life has been handed to you.

Obama wins 35+ states on Election Night, and he'll be Pres. by 11 Eastern Time, so all you Reps. try again, GOD willing in 2016.

[SILVANUS]

Have you configured the possibility of the rogue NeoCons inside the government engineering a 'national disaster' that could be blamed on another country, terrorists, or "undesirable Americans" to justify martial law?

Bush could, then, stay in office as long as he wants.

[PATina]

Yup!!! But not quite as you put it. It could happen that way... but I think it would be more NeoCon like if they kept the elections and with this attack persuaded the voters to elect Mc Cain. They would still control him from behind the scenes. And even if he tried to step out of line... it wouldn't be to hard to orchestraite his demise (he will be 72)... and allow his VP to take over.

[minnehot]

You Coastal dopes are really something! You'd think after the 2000 and 2004 thumpings there would be a bit of humility and caution in the air - but no.......
I will help you Obama drunk armchair quarterbacks look at the electoral situation in another way. The economy is in the tank, gas prices highest ever, unpopular war, housing sector collapse, unemployment rising, and the Bush favorable numbers in the mid 20's AND Obama is up a whole five points! What's wrong with this picture? Look at Florida or Kentucky, or Tenn. or the rest of the solid south - it ain't moving. Ohio, Michigan and PA? McCain is within striking distance as he is in Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and N.H. I quite agree with you that this could be a landslide, but the numbers don't support your view today. What's remarkable is that McCain is in the game at all and Democrats should be very worried about that fact.
Tell me, what will happen to the Democratic Party if is should lose this time? With everything in your favor and still to lose? I think a circular firing squad of Democrats stands a far better chance of happening this fall than a blowout win for Obama.

[Bluebloodsbastardson]

How about a hit on a Presidential candidate who may turn out to be even more of a sacrificial lamb than his party could have intended him to be........­.......wha­t other purpose could this candidate possibly have been expected to fulfill?.......they will not trust their operation to him.....EV­ER....ever­ybody expects a false flag "attack" which makes that operation quite risky to pull off, the other presidential candidate would inspire massive national unrest if he were to be eliminated......but nobody is expecting the old guy to be whacked.....are they? "They" could not have seriously considered this man to be presidential material in any way, shape, or form so what is his purpose?

[Canuckski]

Seth, my boy, you are dreaming! A lot could happen between now and the election. The swiftboaters, racists and Hillary fans for McCain are all still out there.

Lets face it, Obama hasn't come up with much in policy initiatives on national security and energy prices.

I keep on reading that the Rethugs plan to switch McCain for Romney???? before the convention. Is this just a wild rumor?

[Robert59]

Overconfidence usually portends disaster.

Ann Richards became governor of Texas because her opponent (Clayton Williams) blew a 25 point lead. Political science classes all over the country use that election as a case study.

Kerry had it in the bag according to Zogby. How many millions of votes did he fall short?

Bush declared victory and where are we still 5 and 7 years later.

Never underestimate the opposition and never underestimate an organization imploding.

I'll be happy with 50 plus 1 electoral votes.

[copernikus]

"I'll be happy with 50 plus 1 electoral votes."

Unfortunately, that'll mean your candidate loses: 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

[TexasDem0]

How many millions of votes did he fall short?
According to the acutual vote count, or according to Diebold?

Mark Crispin Miller has an online bibliography that documents how elections have been stolen at the Washington Spectator website.

http://www.washingtonspectator.com/articles/20061015bibliography.cfm

[HappinessHacker]

Excellent analysis, I agree with what you say. We see and hear the same feelings here in Atlanta.

You are assuming the November election will be fair and honest, I truly hope you're correct. Past experience warns otherwise.

[brabc1]

The race thing is the unkown quanity. The Bradley Effect could give McBush the win.
Google Bradley Effect if you need to know.

[ipu4me]

You're perhaps wrong, it could be close. McCain might win by the slimmest of electoral votes. As others have mentioned, voter disenfranchisement, Rethuglican Secretaries of State, control of electronic voting machines, Obama's swing to the right, etc. will allow McCain to prevail. Obama may have sealed his own defeat with his brilliant speech on race. It solidified the racist, homophobic, misogynistic, ignorant, religionist and bigoted majority of Americans. True patriots will only rise up and take to the streets after the country collapses under the fascist boot of another ReThug Administration. Jeb Bush selected as the V.P. at the Convention? Another Bush in the White House?

[gdogs]

You might take into consideration that the majority of true patriots that could do anything (ie have guns) that will take the streets will have voted for McCain.

[TexasDem0]

Are you advocating taking the government back with guns?

[PATina]

True patriots will only rise up and take to the streets after the country collapses under the fascist boot of another ReThug Administration.

I was hoping we could avoid that with a President O bama (a bloodless coup)... however, he's starting to go the way of the last democratic nominees... so you could be right.

[eCon]

"All McCain's base are belong to us."

No I is don't. Imagine sitting in an English class a century from now...

Just kidding, Seth.

But, a word to the wise. If you want a future in prophecy, never ever call a presidential election before the Fourth of July. Just because conservatives are not fond of John McCain, does not mean they will ever vote for Obama. If you think otherwise, you must be crazy.

[editorjuno]

They don't have to "vote for Obama" -- all that's required is for enough (not all that many, really) of them to sit out this election.

[eCon]

Either way, the base doesn't "belong" to the Democrats. You'd be surprised how many people are willing to cast a vote against someone.

[jayburd]

Geez Seth, what joy juice is your glass half full of, anyway?

I mean it's looking good for Obama but not THAT good. Have you been reminded lately that he's black? Yeah, he's got that whole racism thing to deal with even from within his own Party. Nice as it would be, the victory, if and when it comes, will probably not be a landslide.

[frustratedinohio]

Seth is drinking Kool-Aid.