All of McCain's Base Belongs to Us: Why It Won't Even Be Close

It's over.

It's mathematically impossible for John McCain to win.

Were the great Tim Russert still with us, he would call the election for Obama at 7pm Eastern time. No, I'm not talking about November 4th -- I mean tonight.

Here we are in the present -- an electric casserole of breaking news ("Obama wears flag pin!"), Internet warfare ("lol McCain is teh oldz!"), and screaming gas bags who are terrified of women ("We'll do it LIVE!"). The MSM is trying to convince us that we're in for a twelve-round brawl. That McCain's going to give Obama a run for his $500M. That's all well and good, and I'm sure it'll make for some riveting television -- if you're the type of person who still watches Harlem Globetrotters games on the edge of your seat, convinced the Washington Generals will pull this one out.

But the truth is, it's not going to be close. Not even a little bit.

Imagine yourself in a high school history class a century from now. Imagine the teacher beginning the section on the elections of 2008 by setting the scene: "America's economy was in flames, we were fighting two wars with no end in sight, and global warming was accelerating at an alarming rate. The most despised president in 150 years was nearing the end of his two corruption-ridden terms, and had heartily endorsed his successor, John McCain -- who, despite a few ideological differences, planned on keeping the status quo intact. Running against him was a lightning-in-a-bottle candidate named Barack Obama. A candidate who had nearly six times the money to spend, drew crowds of 70,000, and who received support from a surprising number of disenfranchised Republicans -- even some of the Evangelicals who swept Bush to power. Obama was the story. He captured the imagination of young Americans and the world. Now, by a show of hands -- who thinks McCain won that election?" (A particularly easy question, since they're sitting in Barack Obama High).

Whatever you think about McCain -- whether you love him or hate him -- you can't deny that he's a victim of horrible timing. Everywhere you look, there are tidal forces -- geopolitical, economic, and social forces -- trending in Obama's favor. McCain is running on a war record in a country aching for peace. He's running on an admitted lack of economic knowledge in a country aching for economic reform. Healthcare, foreign policy, energy -- in each case his sales pitch is twenty years behind the curve, much like the declining party for which he has the unfortunate honor of being standard bearer. Worst of all, his base doesn't even like him. Sure, they might pull that lever, but they'll be holding their noses with the other hand. If Obama's base is "fired up and ready to go," McCain's base is more like "reheated and I'll get around to it."

All McCain's base are belong to us.

Call it whatever you want: arrogance, a jinx -- but let's be honest with ourselves -- this thing is over. I know, I know. "A lot can happen between now and November." I know that we Democrats are used to scurrying around like we're on Meerkat Manor, with a sky full of Neocon hawks overhead. I know that we've perfected the art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But can't you feel it in the smog-kissed air? Feel that this year is different? This year, we've got a candidate who refuses to cower in the face of the old Rove/Atwater/Dobson line of attack. A candidate who understands that you can't change the world unless you win, and that you don't have to sell your soul to do it. And despite some bruises, we've got a Democratic Party on its way toward unprecedented unity and energy.

I don't care if footage of Obama snorting coke off Scarlett Johansson's boobs surfaces in late October. All it will do is bolster his standing with white males. I don't care if McCain is introduced by a resurrected Jesus Christ at the convention. All it will do is piss off Joe Lieberman. McCain won't just be defeated, he'll be crushed. And not just Bob Dole crushed, but crushed in a way that redefines the political map for the next 25 years.

He'll be crushed so decidedly, that bartenders will coin a new drink called "The McCrush" -- vodka and Orange Crush over crushed ice, served in a hollow flip-flop with a sprig of pandering. The networks will switch over to infomercials at 10pm on Election Night, because they'll have nothing left to cover after Obama's victory speech. Webster's will add the word "McCained" to its thesaurus entry for "crushed." Gamers will start taunting each other with new words like "Obampwnd!" and "McNoob!." Somewhere, out there in the everlasting ether of death, Barry Goldwater will feel better about himself.

Jinx or no jinx, I'm not going to be a Meerkat Democrat -- not this year. This year, I'm celebrating the Fourth with some burgers, some fireworks, and a nice, cool McCrush.

This year I'm the friggin' hawk.

Seth Grahame-Smith is the author of Pardon My President: Ready-to-Mail Apologies for Eight Years of George W. Bush

Comments

[glaze]

I will admit to being politically niave, though I'm astute enough to choose Obama over McCain, and I agree with the general progressive opinion about GB being one of the top three worst presidents ever.
What I can't figure out is the disparity between articles like this one, and the close poll results shown on sites like Real Clear Politics. Now, don't bother to try to convince me that RCP is a Con job, ok? I expect most bloggers here on Huffpo to be left-leaning, and that's fine. But if RCP is right, that makes SSGS's article a well-written, confidence­-enhancing but factually flawed cheerleading piece.
(I really hope it turns out that RCP is the flawed party here...) So which is it?

[gala1]

Sweetie, have you ever BEEN in the Flyover?

I'd like to see you spend the summer going to a different congregation every Sunday (that isn't predominately African American) and come write this article again .

Especially some of the Christian Conservative Megachurches You just have no idea. The one here has grown from forty to over a thousand during the Bush years.

Last weekend I listened to a priest in his twenties fondly recalling his childhood memories of going with his parents to picket abortion clinics.
I was horrified. The rest of the parish gave him an ovation.
I'm still not voting for Obama.

It is all over.
But it isn't Obama that is going to win when so far I've seen a grand total of ONE lawn sign for him. I've seen a lot more for Barr and Paul, even. And I do not support McCain, either.

Does not bode well when for you Kool-Aid Obamabots when you mention Obama and all you get is a silent head shake and pursed lips or rolled eyes and a snort.
And then of course it is only good form here to immediately change the subject.

If the Democrats want to win this election they still can. Obama hasn't been nominated yet.
Nor should he be.

You aren't Tinkerbell and it's not about you clapping. The problem with being in the avant garde in an election is that the rest of the garde is where the numbers are, dear.

-gala1

[Veronica]

"It is all over.
But it isn't Obama that is going to win when so far I've seen a grand total of ONE lawn sign for him. I've seen a lot more for Barr and Paul, even. And I do not support McCain, either.

Does not bode well when for you Kool-Aid Obamabots when you mention Obama and all you get is a silent head shake and pursed lips or rolled eyes and a snort.
And then of course it is only good form here to immediately change the subject."

What the hell are you talking about? You think because you greet Obama supporters with rolled eyes along with other people who aren't Obama supporters that he can't win?

Yes, gala1, the existence of non-Obama supporters means he can't possibly win.

And what about lawn signs? Do you really think lawn signs are a reliable indicator of anything? Even if they were, you would have to look at the preponderance of lawn signs all over the country, not just where YOU live. Can you possibly be serious?

Your capacity for logic leaves something to be desired. LOL!

ps-- "Kool-Aid Obamabots" has gone the way of "cut and run," dear. Only a deluded, out-of-touch (and in your case, apparently very isolated) person still uses those tired terms.

[RoboA2008]

Obama will win. But he and his supporters better work hard.

[sdbsingle1]

That 1 sign will turn into many soon, and it also depends where you live, so don't give me that at all.

Obama will be the next President, and put an end to this mess we're in but it will take more than 8 years, and by then, GOD willing he'll be training a successor to continue in the tradition that we all hope he can bring, because he talks well, but let's see him in action.

Ghost!

[SILVANUS]

Your drugs are not working well, darling. I'd call the doctor.

[copernikus]

This always cracks me up when people talk about the "flyover" or the "heartland" being Republican. Well, I've lived in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and I can tell you McCain has NO chance in either place. I don't care what the polls say: he's gonna get crushed.

[martymartymarty]

Lawn signs are not a valid indicator of anything, my neighborhood lawns are strewn with signs that say "IMPEACH BUSH" and that so ain't gonna happen ... (I don't have a lawn, I live in an apartment.)

[sdbsingle1]

gala1 are you serious?

Oh yeah, you just wanted a reaction didn't you?

Well here's one, IT'S OVER COME NOVEMBER!

[bushlies]

You seem to be assuming we will actually HAVE an election. With the drumbeat increasing for war with Iran (This administration is truly nuts.), I'm not. Whether Israel starts it, or WE start it doesn't matter. If the Dems are about to win, it'll happen. Trust me on this. Martial law, $500 a barrel oil, Blackwater troops killing civilians on the streets, you name it: All hell is gonna break loose if it even appears Obama's going to be President. And don't forget the "Bradley factor" while you're at it.

This pack of crooks is not going gently into the night in January 2009. No way.

[Beaux510]

Oh, we'll have an election all right. If they make a move on Iran, it will be after the election, but before the inauguration.

See you in the trenches.

[tds1273]

As long as we still have iVote machines, I am counting on nothing as a sure thing.

[LeeFromVA]

Oh happy Day! Hand over the keys, Dubya. There's a new kid in town. Can't wait.

[autrykid]

Mr. Smith:
I think you have underestimated the ignorance and indifference of the average American voter.
A recent poll demonstrated this by the number of folks, over 50 percent, believe we shuld drill for oil in NAWR which will drive down oil (gasoline) prices. Other polls testing for other issues have similar results. It is very eepressing..
The Republican methodology is very familiar, they have done this before to scare the public into voting for their guy by scaring them into submission.
Most folks today are very myoptic, they can't see beyond their personal needs or desires. They have been lied to and mislead for so long, they can't recognize the truth even when it hits them in the face. Nixon, Reagan, and 2 Bushes are mostly responsible for the public's inability to discern truth from fiction.
This is why McCain can win unless the Democrats get better organized to counter the Republican scare machine.
Wm. (Bill) Richardson
Van Nuys, CA

[markwr]

"This year, we've got a candidate who refuses to cower in the face of the old Rove/Atwater/Dobson line of attack."

I will vote for Obama, but my enthusiasm is waning, because all he is doing lately is cowering to the right: On FISA, on the death penalty, on Gen. Clark's benign statemants about McCain. . .

It is beginning to look like his motto should be "The same old, same old you can believe in." Or, "No, we really can't."

[george082257]

Funny piece. Unforturnately, as the primary proved, just having a Talking Head say "its over" does not make it happen. If Obama can ride the I Hate McBush Bump long enough he just might make it. But there are still lots of people out there who let their fear do the voting. And the Republicans are good at winning elections. If galvanizing the youth won elections than Nixon would have gotten creamed in 1972. And we would have had a President Stevenson. Alas, it is not so easy.

[DIdaho]

"A candidate who understands that you can't change the world unless you win,"

This is something that's really impressed me about Obama in the last week, and for which he's of course taking a lot of hits - (needlessly, on the surface) dissing Clark, voting for FISA, pushing faith-based programs, - but it reminds me of what they say about winning golf tournaments - you can't win it on Thursday, but you can lose it. He needs to hang on, and not give ammo to the attack machine. And he's doing just that.

[bbuc]

Yeah, right Seth; and Hillary had it all sewed up last Fall too, remember?

I wish you were right about Obama being all but done, but if that's what you believe, I think you're being naive. You don't seem to be one of the people who've been paying attention to how voting machines worked in Ohio or Florida, or how GOP elections officials count votes in this country.

You don't seem to be aware of how they stole a congressional election in Sarasota county and got away with it. You don't seem to be aware of all the registered voters who are being dumped off the rolls around the country by Republican election supervisors. You don't seem to be aware of just how fickle and goofy the public can be when they wake up and start watching what passes for news these days, but is really shaped information geared to slightly dis the candidate with a clever smirk and a leading question of prepositioned talking heads for hours on end day after day. You really don't seem to be paying attention.

Sorry to say, but we haven't won this yet, and if we do win it we'll have to win it with large enough numbers so they can't possibly steal it... just like we did in 2006 when Dems had a landslide- but had that veto proof majority stolen from them by GOP vote counters too.

[dennisherer]

You may be right, but I'm with Seth on this one. I believe that most of Americans are really sick of the Republicans. Look at the entrenched Republican congressmen who have lost their elections. People like Denny Hastert from Illinois. Even Lindsay Grahame is worried. Maybe there is a God. And I say, "'bout time!".

[Speakchic]

Hillary had it all "sewn up" b4 any votes were casted. Now granted there haven't been any votes casted for the GE but come on. McCain didn't come close to getting the votes Obama did and it's a reality. Republicans are done, all we need is November to prove it.

[ThatSharkeyGeezer]

I agree with neesy08: while this looks like a perfect storm for Obama, and while I also forecast him to win in a landslide that will redefine this country's political landscape for a generation, I still think it prudent to save the gloating until we've got the trophy in our hands. Because we've seen that smugness and triumphalism does not go down well with the American electorate, as HRC proved beyond doubt earlier this year.

[JamesRiddle]

If you are this convinced why not lay down some big bucks in Vegas on it? I'm sure someone would take the bet. Hope you are right. But if I know anything about America it's that you can be fairly sure much of the population will vote for the guy who will take them further into the abyss. A country that voted for George Bush a second time around is capable of unprecedented illogic.

[CRGirl30]

Probably because it's illegal to bet on political races.

[Ladyrantsalot]

Well, I hope you're right. But this reads like an over-generalized fantasy. Every election will be state by state, and the Electoral College favors conservative candidates. Keep your eye on the ball. No dreaming allowed.

[Titonwan]

You would think that's a good thing. Maybe not. If the last few weeks are any indication, Barack seems to be getting more independent of the people that have gotten him where he is. Ungrateful is such a weak description of this behavior. Traitorous is more like it. Not that I'd ever consider Hillary or regret she didn't get the nomination, but I see extreme "tacking" (cute little word for lying) from what he said he was running on. If he sees this as a shoe in, well, lets just say there will be more "positioning" in the future. After the swearing in ceremony, I can almost imagine him tearing the rubber Obama mask off and there's George Bush heading into his third term. He's not only getting unpredictable, which enrages me, he's getting down right scary. You're welcome for all the help you've received from me, Barack, I hope you choke on it. You apologist can stick it where the sun don't shine.

[AnotherMike]

I could not agree more.

"...Meerkat Manor with a sky full of Neocon hawks overhead." - Brillant.

The MSM is doing their very best to turn this into a reality show, inspring as many people as they can to wake up worrying about what's going to happen on the next episode...

Oh snap, Wes said Johnny got shot down in his fighter plane!

Bill and Barack are totally having drama...

You go, Hillary!

This week on the cover of US Weekly!


The only saving grace in this whole thing is unlike American Idol, there's only one election season every four years, not four seasons every year.

Wake me when it's time to book airline tickets to D.C. for Obama's Presidential Inauguration.