Ten Things to Remember on Tuesday Night

Hillary Clinton will win Pennsylvania.

Arguments over the meaning or meaninglessness of her win will dominate MSM and stretch bandwidth to its breaking point. Bloggers and pundits will dust off their favorite boxing metaphors: "Hillary's off the ropes!" "Obama can't land the knockout!" Hillbots will rejoice, Obamabots will panic, and McCainbots will watch Murder She Wrote and go to bed at six-thirty. I'll probably write a scathing post attempting to prove that Hillary is the devil incarnate. We'll all lose our minds.

In hope of preventing some of this hysteria (especially my own), I thought it'd be helpful to keep a few things in mind during Tuesday night's results -- from Hillary's "victory" speech to the blizzard of spin that's sure to follow:

1. Remember that there's no way Hillary can become the nominee without a superdelegate coup -- which would alienate a generation of young Democrats and dangerously fracture the party.

2. Remember that her campaign leaked internals showing an eleven point lead (as a means of firing up her supporters and getting out the vote). Therefore, any win smaller than eleven points should be considered a disappointment by her own assessment.

3. Remember that every time Hillary begins a sentence with "you know," or "my opponent," the next thing out of her mouth is a lie.

4. Remember that when Clinton surrogates say "this proves Obama can't win the big states," they're ignoring the fact that he actually won more delegates in Texas -- not to mention twice as many states as she has.

5. Remember that when the pundits argue that Obama can't win in white rural areas because they broke for Hillary, they're ignoring the fact that he won (in alphabetical order): Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

6. Remember that when Hillary talks about who will be "better against John McCain in the fall," she's talking about the fall of 2012.

7. Remember that Hillary's campaign is $10M in debt, while Obama's has more than $40M in cash on hand.

8. Remember that Hillary's lead in Pennsylvania was as a high as 26 points only a month ago.

9. Remember that Hillary's late Pennsylvania rebound was forged in the fires of negativity and fear-mongering.

10. Remember that the only manufacturing job Hillary ever brought to Pennsylvania was the manufactured notion that she was a middle-class, whisky-swilling duck killer, and not an anti-union multi-millionaire.

Comments

[lafemme]

Yo, Obama folk, did it ever occur to you there is no way Obama can win the election without the superdelegate vote? Lose the argument. It lost you eons, ago.

[burbankgal]

This is precisely accurate; I am making the rather bold assumption that you are not a superdelegate, as I too am not a superdelegate. When I last checked, the differential between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama rested at 24, which is hardly insurmountable.

It appears as though you trust the judgment of the superdelegates as do I; if in fact Senator Obama were to bypass Senator Clinton in superdelegate count, would you be happy with the decisions of the superdelegates?

[cowgirlblues]

we don't have to be happy for him if that were to happen just accept it. he won't get a dime of my money nor my time, and i will cast my vote for him knowing full well he won't get elected-this is bootcamp-we are headed for the war, and the tactics you've used on Hillary won't work there-the republicans invented them and are much more clever than you are

[boombox]

Not to worry. You lost us at "yo."

[tbrnotb]

Has it ocurred to you that Hillary cannot win the NOMINATION without the superdelegate vote. And YOUR reasoning is.........

[ClareP]

gee, and I thought we actually lived in a democracy. Well, time will tell. But if Hillary doesn't believe in democracy, perhaps she should switch parties. it would fit with her voting with Bush on so many issues, her praising McCain, her approval of the expanded (and unconstitutional) powers of the executive branch, and her top-down management style which stresses loyalty and yes-men (& women) over listing to other perspectives.

[sxm342]

If the Super Delegates are only there to confirm the Candidate that wins the State Delegate count then what is the purpose of a Super Delegate? If they are playing a confirmation role then the Super Delegates should be removed and returned to the States.

[RevJeff]

The super delegates are there to make sure the people and the pledged delegates don't vote for someone that is totally unelectable in the fall. In this primary, either Clinton or Obama can easily defeat McCain and that is why it appears they are there to just confirm the nominee.

[mgw]

And with all of this, exactly what has Obama done? Because every time I listen to this type of tripe spewing about what Clinton can or cannot do, or what she has not done, I have had to scream. What has Obama done!

[jmk65]

right!
yes we can what?
what is this "change" of which you speak?

i hear macro talk but rarely micro.

[ClareP]

Obama realizes that excessive policy details aren't speech material & won't inspire people to go out & vote--nor is complex policy a good thing to try to put into soundbites which the media & republican smear machine will immediately try to distort. But the micro is there, readily available. He has detailed it publicly and it is on the website. He also has a very intelligent book (not the autobiography, which is also good, but the Audacity of Hope, which is political). If your question is real, bother to actually read a little bit of the masses of legitimate info that are readily available..

[boombox]

What has Hillary done?

[tbrnotb]

Here's what Obama has done:
He didn't vote for a stupid war then refused to say he was wrong.
He didn't vote for every NAFTA bill in existence
He has the ability to inspire the electorate
He gives us hope that there will be change in our country
He has worked in the inner city for the poor
He has as much experience (actually more) than Abraham Lincoln
He runs a positive forwrd looking campaign
He has the respect of the country and the world

Now, tell me everything Hillary has done!

[cowgirlblues]

So what you are saying is Obama has NO experience-don't take much to beat that

[Cailleach]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/21/164117/783/290/461422

This may be on a liberal site, but it factually lists everything Obama has done. I know I shouldn't confuse you with facts, but you might find the answer to what Obama has done if want your question answered. PS--You only have to read the list, not the story. The list speaks for itself.

[Garretto]

That was hilarious and truthful!!! Right on Seth!

[WWWexler]

The Clinton campaign is all about propaganda. The propaganda is designed to stimulate the super delegates into voting against the best interests of the party, and therefore the best interests of the people.

(Sound familiar?)

Yesterday Bill Clinton stated that if the Dems were going by GOP rules, Hillary would have won. Why don't they just join the GOP and make it official? They campaign like GOPERS, they lie like GOPERS, and she votes like a GOPER.

If Hillary somehow steals the nomination, it will be the end of the Democratic party, and that would be a good thing. We need a progressive party, and the Dems are definitely not progressive. They can take their grabbastic, pork barrel, warmongering, Bush Lite politics and cram it.

-Wexler

[swoosie1]

Well folks, if Hillary does not get the nomination...just watch all hell break loose when we Hillary supportes get going on the "write-in" campaign for her. Why should we vote for Obama when we can write in our gal's name? Go HILL!

[BludevlsAdvocate]

What an IDIOTIC thing to say (and to think). So, I take it, you feel that if the game can't be played by YOUR rules (i.e. Hillary gets the nomination) then you want to take the ball (your vote) and go home. How childish.

President McCain will be most appreciative next January.

[boombox]

That'll work.

[RevJeff]

Are you willing for McCain to take the White House to prove a point? Whomever the nominee is, the Democratic Party needs to get behind him or her to ensure this country's survival.

[missjabez]

Then you'll just be like your heroine: a sore loser. Go ahead and write her in. I don't care.

[Plhamel]

Wow. I just switched from Independent to Democrat. Not until reading this did I realize how dangerously divided the party has become. Might as well start saying President McCain.

I prefer Obama, however I will vote Hillary if she gets the nom. Not doing so would be a vote for McCain.

[eggman]

About nine items too many. We just need to remember two things: 1) tomorrow, Obama will still lead in the delegate count and the popular vote, and 2) Clinton is not going to drop out of the race.

[larstein]

Remember, the voting machines are all electronic and the Clinton machine controls them. Look for Hillary to win by 11 to 15 points - all of it rigged. How is this election not a fraud? Obama knows he can't win, but not because of turnout or votes cast. Who ever rigged the machines wins. The only hope for Obama is a massive turnout.

[cowgirlblues]

Are'nt you supposed to wait til he loses to start screaming conspiracy? JFYI, its a republican who sells those machine

[smoothdogie]

thanks for the encouraging words. you are absolutely right about keeping our heads in these times. the only way hillary and bill are going to win this thing is to steal it. they are not above that but i don't think it will happen. there is one thing. i have heard the argument that "obama can't win the big states" coming out of hillary's mouth. the logic is so flawed. i live in california which hillary won. but i can guarantee that obama will kill mcsame in the fall. this is democrat country if there ever was one. why aren't the pundits challenging hillary on this claim?

[airhunt]

As Indonesian-Canadian, again, who have so much passion about the US of A since I was little, I do hope that this time American will choose not only the right party, Democrat that is, but more so the correct President. As the campaign progresses, more and more it shows how much more experience Mrs. Clinton is compare to Mr. Obama. Sad to say, if Mr. Obama won, I am very doubtful if US of A will have both: right Party, and a correct President! In other words, McCain will prevail, simply because, yes colour does matter! And that's a fact. Even if Mr. Obama won, perhaps won't be long! Don't want to be pessimistic, but seriously, there are many crazy KKK out there!

[Amminadab]

I'm sure your guarantee is worth everything put into it........ but doesn't California have a Republican govenor? How did that happen in "democrat country"?

[boombox]

Had a bit to do with personalities, I believe...Gray Davis, The Terminator...remember them?

[tbrnotb]

I f you lived in California, you'd realize our Governor is a RINO (Republican in name only). He listens to his electorate on the Democratic social issues. he is pro-gay rights, he pro-choice, he will not go against the majority of Califonrians.

Plus he's a movie star! We really don't mind him at all. And his wife is a liberal! It keeps our Orange County and San Diego republicans happy, thinking they have one of their own in office....but please don't tell them that! LOL!

[twinkerbell]

First, Hillary Clinton was the brand name; Bill Clinton visited California many, many times when he was President, while Obama was still somewhat unknown. California has a Republican governor because the Democrat was recalled. Arnold Schwarzenegger is a former movie star who is married to Maria Shriver, a Democratic member of the Kennedy family. Arnold is fairly moderate for a Repub, and Californians pretty much always have a soft spot for celebrities (think: Ronald Reagan). The California Legislatrure is just under 2/3 Democratic and the Dems out number Repubs in voter registration by a million or 2.

[smoothdogie]

arnold won by basically being a very liberal republican....i.e...a democrat. look at his agenda and you will see why he got elected. hell...even most of the dems love arnold out here. secondly....the man he ran against....grey davis....was a totally corrupt dweeb and a loser. figure it out amminadab

[LuckyBlessed]

I agree with Bdwyre regarding the disappointment factor and the Clintons. As a woman I am particularly disgusted. The longer this aimless disregard of the popular vote and selfish destruction of the Democratic party continues by Ms. Clinton, the more her legacy and trust factor crumbles.

[PNG]

Hey Seth:

Firstly, let's be honest: it will come down to popular vote. Michigan and Florida, who have NOT been 'counted' MUST have their say even though they violated DNC policy. Neither one wishes a 'do over' to re-seat delegates. And the DNC and super delegates are going to have to consider these votes: They must. Even if it means that the straight popular vote overrides the delegate delineation of which Obama currently holds the lead.

Secondly, Obama CAN'T win the large 'swing' states'. Obama will get beaten..and that summarily will end his campaign even if he retains the lead in the delegate count. The delegates will HAVE to concede to Clinton for she will prove the most viable to take the White House from the Republicans.

Not getting the White House in 2008 will do more to divide the Democratic Party, than this media-created pseudo-contentious race at present.

"Hillary's campaign is $10M in debt, while Obama's has more than $40M in cash on hand."

I wouldn't be too quick to 'pimp' this fact as a sign of Hillary's 'failing' campaign, He's just better schmoozing with these demons of Corporate Special Interest than Hillary is. Not a good selling point, Seth, Ya Make Ya Boi Bar-O look bad on this count!

This is an objective breakdown of both candidates history and qualifications in their tenures in the US Senate. Neither one is impressive.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/129976/page/1

[FrankBlackFrancis]

Obama can win swing states. But Hillary CAN'T possibly win. She rallies Republicans better than Karl Rove. That's my objective break down. Hillary is unelectable, Obama can trounce McCain and probably will.

[barphyle]

Great job as usual, Seth!

[goodsnservices]

Calling BS on your analysis, png. First, there is absolutely no truth to the statement that Obama can't win the big swing states. You would have to suppose that a primary loss in one of those states takes it permanently off the table in the general election, WHICH IT DOES NOT. Even if a portion of people who voted for Hillary turn out to be sore losers and refuse to vote for Obama in the general election, most of them will vote for him. Also, only a fraction of all voters take part in the primary contests, even in a year like this with record turnouts. Most Democrats will support their party's nominee. So face it. A "Blue" state won by Kerry will also be won by Obama. Plus he'll swing some previously red states into the blue column, ensuring a general election win.

Here's another reality check for ya, just in case you'd like to do something different,. Go to CNNs delegate tracker to see EXACTLY what it would take for HIllary to pull off a nomination win and THEN come back here and tell us all about it.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

[mooph]

Denial -- it's not just a river in Africa.

[felden47]

Hey Seth:
Tell this confederate flag waving person that as much as they think their opinion is an objective one it isn't. They just want to see a WASP back in office. even if it means the wrong choice for the leader of this country. You never know where she really stands on the issues. One minute she's crying and the next she fighting mad. She speaks more about Obama than she does the issues. It's time for a change no matter what the color of the person's skin is. And by the way I am a WASP. GO OBAMA!!!!

[Amminadab]

I'll be you have NEVER heard a Hillary speech..... and yet you think you know what she speaks about based upon the sound-bite snippets fed to you.

Intellectually lazy and dishonest.

[GuyInNC]

3. Obama has lied often in this campaign. He lied twice in the debate last week. Once denying his handwriting was on a document that he has previously admitted was his handwriting. And again when he denied his campaign has ever talked about Bosnia unless asked about it.

4. winning more delegates in TX, is not the same as winning more votes as they would be counted in November. He lost the popular vote in TX by over 100,000. Also, when discussing the lack of big state wins, it doesn't make much sense to come back with his winning more states, since the majority of them were small.

5. check the current polls in all the states you listed here and see if Obama currently leads McCain in ANY of them.

8. When PPP announced a poll in PA showing Hillary ahead by 26, all the Obama supporters said it was a worthless poll. PPP has one of the WORST polling records out there.

9. Obama has been just as negative as Clinton has througout the campaign. He's just hides it better. He lied to the American people about it in the last debate when he claimed that his campaign (not him personally) has never discussed Bosnia unless they were asked about it.

[jmk65]

9. Obama has been just as negative as Clinton has througout the campaign. He's just hides it better. He lied to the American people about it in the last debate when he claimed that his campaign (not him personally) has never discussed Bosnia unless they were asked about it.

it is because he has david axelrod to do his dirty work for him!

[FrankBlackFrancis]

Oh please. Obama as negative as Hillary? What a joke. Not even close.

[FrankBlackFrancis]

You've had a hand writing expert look at that document have you? That's weak.
Delegates get you the nomination not the popular vote. Therefor Texas was won by Obama. The margin of victory in most of those big states was minimal, unlike the small states where Obama blew her out almost everywhere. It is a safe assump[tion that traditionally blue states will remain so and I'm confident Obama will do fine in the others. The current polls are meaningless and certainly not worth weighing when considering a nominee. Obama hasn't been just as negative as Hillary. That's an absolute laugher. A joke.

[Amminadab]

The Obama camp has certainly been negative.... and divisive.

Hillary is smeared every day by his supporters.

It is the Obama way..... smear by surrogate.

[nynick]

Silly stuff. Well, like Kevin Bacon said to Tom Cruise,
"your boys' going down Danny. There's nothing I can do to stop it now. "

[artgal]

And remember if Hillary wins by 9 or 10 points its still the case that Obama cant close the deal
and remember that in sales and in fishing - it doesnt matter to your stats about the ones
that got away - only the ones you closed on, so stop your whining about Hillary. Why should
she be the one that backs down? Her supporters down want her to. This is an election, its not
a coronation and Obama isnt getting the crown until he wins it. About the superdelegates if they are supposed to vote the way of their states, then what the heck do we need them for. Neither Kerry,
Ted Kennedy or Richardson are voting the way that their states have gone and Richardson brought up that in New Mexico, though Hillary won it was "close". Well, right now between Obama and Hillary its close too so I understand her justification for not quitting. We dont want a quitter we want someone who gets in the arena and fights all the way to the end - thats what it will take to go against the Republican machine - and I dont think Obama's laid back style is going to make the impact HIllary will.
We need a winner against the Republicans - she can close the deal against McCain - she will make
him look like the doddering old fool he is in a debate.

[FrankBlackFrancis]

She should be the one that backs down because she can't catch Obama's pledged delgate count and can't even keep super delegates let alone woo more of them. I don't know how anyone can expect Hillary being able to overcome 2 decades of right wing radio hate. This is why they want to run against her. Tkae off the Hilalry glasses and look at the hard light of day.

[tryharder2think]

We don't want you or your liars in our system any more!

Loud and clear enough for ya!

Your dirty ugly politics are through.

The truth is out there - try and find it shill.

Try harder 2 think.

[tbrnotb]

Totally insulting....and misinformed, artgal. And the rest of you have the nerve to post here that Obama runs a negative campaign compared to the Clintons? Folks, have you any objectivity left? We WERE Hillary supporters until we saw this smarmy, negative campaign and then, ONLY THEN, did we turn to Obam to our wonderful delight. NOW.....come join us and lets kick some republican a$$.

[meanguy]

you forgot #11:

"I'M BARACK OBAMA, AND I APPOROVED THIS MESSAGE"

[majormoderate]

"and McCainbots will watch Murder She Wrote and go to bed at six-thirty." Hilarious and well said.