Ten Things to Remember on Tuesday Night
Hillary Clinton will win Pennsylvania.
Arguments over the meaning or meaninglessness of her win will dominate MSM and stretch bandwidth to its breaking point. Bloggers and pundits will dust off their favorite boxing metaphors: "Hillary's off the ropes!" "Obama can't land the knockout!" Hillbots will rejoice, Obamabots will panic, and McCainbots will watch Murder She Wrote and go to bed at six-thirty. I'll probably write a scathing post attempting to prove that Hillary is the devil incarnate. We'll all lose our minds.
In hope of preventing some of this hysteria (especially my own), I thought it'd be helpful to keep a few things in mind during Tuesday night's results -- from Hillary's "victory" speech to the blizzard of spin that's sure to follow:
1. Remember that there's no way Hillary can become the nominee without a superdelegate coup -- which would alienate a generation of young Democrats and dangerously fracture the party.
2. Remember that her campaign leaked internals showing an eleven point lead (as a means of firing up her supporters and getting out the vote). Therefore, any win smaller than eleven points should be considered a disappointment by her own assessment.
3. Remember that every time Hillary begins a sentence with "you know," or "my opponent," the next thing out of her mouth is a lie.
4. Remember that when Clinton surrogates say "this proves Obama can't win the big states," they're ignoring the fact that he actually won more delegates in Texas -- not to mention twice as many states as she has.
5. Remember that when the pundits argue that Obama can't win in white rural areas because they broke for Hillary, they're ignoring the fact that he won (in alphabetical order): Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
6. Remember that when Hillary talks about who will be "better against John McCain in the fall," she's talking about the fall of 2012.
7. Remember that Hillary's campaign is $10M in debt, while Obama's has more than $40M in cash on hand.
8. Remember that Hillary's lead in Pennsylvania was as a high as 26 points only a month ago.
9. Remember that Hillary's late Pennsylvania rebound was forged in the fires of negativity and fear-mongering.
10. Remember that the only manufacturing job Hillary ever brought to Pennsylvania was the manufactured notion that she was a middle-class, whisky-swilling duck killer, and not an anti-union multi-millionaire.
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
Thank you for this brilliant post! I now consider myself to be mentally prepared for the condescending, bombastic, and overblown speech that Hillary will surely assail us with on the eve of her relatively meaningless win (hopefully by a minuscule margin) in PA.
I'm also working on a theory that she may be the devil incarnate, or at least a sociopath, to be able to lie so convincingly, with no shame, behind a thinly-veiled caricature of someone who cares for anything other than her own, inflated sense of self-importance.
As Barack pointed out on the Daily Show last night, I can also take comfort in the fact that these tactics have only served to make him a stronger candidate.
If there is one thing I have learned over a lifetime of observing politics it is never ever count out the Clintons. To do so is very foolish and shotsighted. Many of the politicians on the national scene who once worked for or were allied with the Clintons and now have jumped ship and joined the Obama band wagon have made the biggest miscalculation of their careers. Even if Sen. Clinton does not get the nomination I believe that dispite all the talking heads pronouncments to the contrary Sen. McCain will win the election. If that is the case then the Clintons will reset for a run in 2012. In the process they will purge the Democratic Party of the radical lefties and those that have been disloyal. As the old saying goes , "you stick with the one who brung you to the dance".
What an awful post, you should be ashamed of yourself with all your nonsense. The voters are speaking my friend and if Hillary wins we must accept the will of the voters, not your nonsense!!
And don't forget, we have a way to go before all the primaries are completed (including Florida & Michigan that we cannot ignore) and in the end it should be the will of the people that determines the winner, not your hate based postings. True democrats should support whoever is on the ticket in November and avoid throwing rocks at either candidate in the meantime. To do otherwise you will be ensuring a McCain victory...
The voters have spoken and Hilalry can not catch Barack Obama's pledged delgate count, she can't keep super delegates and she's trailing in the popular vote. The shame belongs to Hillary Clinton and her supporters too blind to see that she has lost. Clingin to Hillary will ensure a McCAin victory. Hell nominating Hillary will do the same.
You should be ashamed of yourself shill. Go take your lies elsewhere.
And don't let the door hit you on the way out!
Try harder 2 think
Speaking of the "will of the people", who has won more delegates? After all, the delegate count (not the superdelegates) reflects the will of the voters. The last time I checked, which was today, it was Obama. So you're right: Hillary should do what the voters want: end this farce of a campaign and let the inevitable democratic nominee start fighting McCain instead of Hillary.
Don't be surprised if the following scenario plays out: HRC wins the popular vote 53-47%. BUT the delegate count, because of the proportionality rules, plays out 51% -49% for Clinton. In other word the popular vote gets closer but still is about 750,000 for Obama, and the delgete count is a near wash. Meaning? It is still Obama with a comfortable lead, and HRC still playing catch-up (thie time with no money and time running out)
That was so well stated I have nothing to add. You're right, she was always supposed to win Pennsylvania. That was never in doubt.
The real story in Pennsylvania would be if Obama does well.
I am a 62 year old Black female and have voted since 1968, but if Obama is crowned the nominee be the Democratic white handlers (he has transcended race you know) - I will never vote again having watched the MSM and the white establishment with the help of a few African Americans. They are being uses and my people are so caught up in their idea of a Black man being president is greatly over rated. Obama is not now and probably have never considered himself to be Black (maybe African American), but he knows and many of us know - there is a difference. I can say - watch out Michelle - the paper bag theory is still enforce. TRANCENDING RACE - to me means - he doesn't need nor want my vote - so I'll keep it to myself and maybe before I leave this earth - someone worthy will come along and I'll be able to use the only thing the man gave me.
Obama will never represent me -
Sorry you feel that way.
You are a liar...
Good bye - we don't need you!
Try harder 2 think
There really is only one "race" for humans - this is a fact at the DNA level - we all came Africa. There are many shades, shapes, cultures of people (like cats) - and when it comes to judging a person - you only have what they give you to go by. Clinton hasn't given any indication of what she really stands for - other than the experience of playing the chameleon. Obama's greatest fault is what you see is what you get - a person built of his own merit who has an earnestness that would wound a lesser being. He has proven - as no one else has - from a dream you can make a reality; and I'd like to be a part of that race.
"4. Remember that when Clinton surrogates say "this proves Obama can't win the big states," they're ignoring the fact that he actually won more delegates in Texas -- not to mention twice as many states as she has."
i must have missed the news stating that Texas has agreed to apportion electroal college votes according to a barbor shop popularity contest rather than actual votes. That's pretty much the only way this comment has any semblance of relevance in explaining Obama's allergy to winning actual votes.
According to you, super delegates supporting Clinton is a coup but Obama winning more delegates in Texas (despite a huge loss in the popular vote) is a demonstration of his support. Twisted logic.
If Obama wants democracy to prevail, why did he block new votes in Michigan and Florida? Spin all you want about the rules, but if you rely on rules, then you should accept that super delegates may vote as they please. In any event, the rules did not preclude new votes in Michigan and Florida - they only purportedly precluded the early primaries.
I was once a strong supporter of Hillary, but disappointed by the negative, Rovian tone of her campaign recently, I was feeling that she should withdraw as soon as possible in the interests of defeating McCain. However, reading the pro-Obama posts on this site have made me reconsider. He seems to have cultivated a cult of personality that is frightening in its hatefulness. That is the last thing this country needs.
Once again - a liar....
The hate comes from the direction which the other four fingers are pointing.
Try harder 2 think
Just wanted to say thanks to Seth for writing this. It definitely helped to read it now. i'll read it again tomorrow to lower the anxiety. Perfecto!
People seem to be caught up in the Obama Messiah movement. No one seems to care this man hardly makes a stand on anyting. He promises to get out troops out of Iraq after three years into the presidency IF he is elected. Three years people..Th
From reading this blog, it seems people think this is a sports event and 'boxing match' rather than electing the best candidate to the HIGHEST JOB in our country. It is not a BEAUTY contest people. The highest job and one that will affect our lives just like Bush is killing America and dumb idiots elected him...base
You may get Obama...wh
Face it, there is no true Democrat in this race...no true liberal or Progressiv
Exactly, we're looking for the best candidate for the job. I'm still waiting to hear why that would be Hillary. So far she's done nothing but turn people away in this campaign and every day she sounds more and more like Bush.
." Remember that when the pundits argue that Obama can't win in white rural areas because they broke for Hillary, they're ignoring the fact that he won (in alphabetical order): Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. "
But how many of these wins were in states where they used caucuses instead of an open election where many more voted? .And how many of these wins were in states which are almost certain to go Republican in the national election? At this point in time, I support Obama but am very concerned that he does not seem to connect with an important part of the electorate, not to mention the racists who will not vote for a black man under any circumstances.
Most of those states are purple. Colorado had caucuses but theat doesn't worry me at all. Hillary makes a big deal about them but I don't see it.
Those racists whom will not vote for a black man under any circumstances were voting Republican anyway you look at it.
Exactly, ImpressedByHonesty! These racist voters ain't gonna be votin' for Hillary anyway...t
i think that is a really valid point. i know people will say that is crap but i really don't think it is. i voted for hillary in my primary (wisconsin) and still feel like she would be a better president in the business sense (versus the inspiring sense). but of course i will vote for obama if he is the nominee because i am committed to getting a democrat in the white house.
but truly i am concerned about this very fact. there is no way wyoming, idaho, nebraska, utah or kansas is going dem. and there is virtually no way that obama can win without ohio and florida. and pennsylvania.
he for sure does not seem to have a connection with lesser educated blue collar people of the party. and i'm not sure he will be able to. he just isn't that way. he may be post-racial or post-economic but i dont' see it happening. i truly hope it does so we can win if he is nominee.
Business sense? Have you any yourself?
The woman is in debt in her campaign and can't pay her bills.
Business sense? HA HA HA!
try harder 2 think
We had an open primary in VA and he beat her 62%-38%. Many independents and republicans will vote for him over McCain in VA. They will never vote for Hillary.
why are we trying to fight change the clintons had thier day in the sun its a new day they made a change now its time for a new change and new face and its not mCcain how we forget when we the older people wanted change in the 50's 60's and70's but now the younger people of this what change they don't know whats good for them what hippocrates we are
Great message...
I am so disappointed in the Clintons I could just spit. I loved Bill Clinton (in spite of his wicked ways) and remember the good old days when I actually had money in my pocket, food on the table and gas in my car. But he has let me down ("YOU LET ME DOWN, WILLIE!"). Good Lord, the Clintons have been on the receiving end of vicious attacks and "throw the kitchen sink" political BS and they should know better. And Hillary - though I never really liked her I thought she was intelligent and empathetic
And to be honest I'm pretty sick of having Clintons and Bushes in the White House - it really is time for a change.
You just wrote EXACTLY how I have been feeling!
I used to LOVE Bill! Now, I've lost all respect for him. Hillary, I never really liked her too much, and now I REALLY don't like her. They both must have cut a deal with the Bushies...
Bill was so quiet the last 7 1/2 years while the idiot in Chief was destroying our constitution and declaring illegal wars. Why?? Gore spoke out! But Bill was trotting around the globe with Papa Bush. WHY?? What crooked deal did they strike? Why is Richard Mellon Scaife now endorsing Hillary?? That's just nuts! She should have thrown that right in his face if she had any dignity. Why does the right-wing, ie Limbaugh, want to run against Hillary...
Anyway. I live in PA. I voted for Obama as did my whole family. I think Hillary will win my state due to the Clinton machine, but I hold out all hope for Obama to be the next President. If not, our country has already been sold down the river.
SICKENING THOUGHTS ABOUND
Many comments made about the democratic candidates were influenced by moveOn.org or the anti war movement. Folks chose to be anti Hillary without an indebt analysis of many things. Hillary Clinton, the great American woman Senator, has outlasted all the pundits and negative tongue lashing from everybody including Barack down to the recently enrolled student at some majoe college or university.
Hillary has waged a protacted struggle to present herself as the most viable candidate for the job as USA President. Today when the polls close she will amaze us with her true American spirit tenacity and resilence. Which are fine examples forunable toncouragement as we bind our selves together to eliminate republicanism and convervative politics from dominating US policy at home and abroad.
Tonight Hillary will celebrate a major victory in PA . It will not be a mere victory against Barack but a major victory for the American spirit to overcome obstacles and be magnificient in going towards success. So all folks who found it in their heart to find some argument aimed at demoralising Hillary Clinton , you were not on the side of something major happenning right in front of us. In the end we were to biased by subjectivity unable to make out the trees from the forest. Onward to victory after victory to the white house...an
Don't get me wrong...Ba
What is Hillary great at? Nothing I've seen so far? Not one thing!
She's not even good at lying?
Sheesh - you are going to have to try harder!
Try harder 2 think
Ahhh the taste of KoolAid in the morning. Must be real sweet for you to make such a resounding speech for a loser like Hillary.
Your analysis is way off. I chose to be anti-Hillary because of Hillary Clinton and it really pisses me off to hear people jump to such a conclusion. She has earned much of the animosity she has created for her self. She isn't that great. But apparently you are ga ga for her. If you haven't noticed she has been courting conservatives, the same ones we defended her from in the 90's. If you are ocunting on her defeating conservatism, you're nuts.
Seth is right, of course. The fact is, that Hillary needs a 25% plurality in PA and won't get anywhere near that. Frankly, I'm looking at 5 - 7. Here's the math. On May 6, Hillary may eke out a victory in Indiana and Barack trounces her in North Carolina. Back to where we started from, April 22nd. Then comes Kentucky and Oregon on May 20th - A wash. Idaho comes along, May 27th, Puerto Rico, June 1 and on June 3, Montana and South Dakota. That same day, the Texas convention certifies the Barack win in Texas. These contests won't move the needle very far for either candidate. Even counting Michigan and Florida, Hillary only gains 56 delegates. Super delegates are flocking to Obama AND he gets the endorsements of any and all dems who matter, including the recent enthusiastic plaudits from Richardson and Reich, both members of the Clinton administration. And there's the extremely important, and largely ignored support from highly respected foreign policy expert, Sam Nunn. Now, I know Hillary is going to accuse Obama of mugging grandma's, setting the Chicago fire and leading China to communism, but it's not working. Yeah, she wins PA - it's hard for some country folks to process a black man as president, even a consummately decent and brilliant one. They'll get over that in the months leading up to the general. It's Barack vs. Kept man McCain. All is well.
Living in Vancouver (Canada), I was witness to a Global Democratic Convention that took place here of expat Americans who were less ambivalent about who they would like to see as the leader of their homeland - there were an overwhelming number of Obama t-shirts. Too bad CNN wasn't covering these Americans abroad (though news from New Zealand covered it http://tvn
NOpe, they don't care. If anything, that sort of information makes Americans dig in their heels and do the opposite. "Nobody is going to tell US what to do!"
What the rest of the world doesn't understand is that Americans have never gotten over their garrison mentality. They still believe, deep down, that it is them against the world.
Not this American, nor anybody I know...
Obama '08 Obama '12
Aye, the unilateralism is abundantly clear. What may not have sunk in is that - considering America's ever-sinking resources and their growing need of cooperation and friendly aid from so-called allies - it should be made evident that the only way out of the sinking titantic is some major goodwill from the rest of the world. Between Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, rising oil prices, China's and Russia's growing power and the progressive developments in Europe - the next leader needs to have a great deal of charisma and likeability to "win friends and influcence people". Speaking entirely objectively as a Canadian (and as a female - as I know that is a big deal for Clintonites) - Hillary definitely doesn't have what it takes to bring it to the table nor does she come across as being authentic. Obama, on the other hand, has said that he'd take another look at NAFTA - and most Canadians still think he is an incredible opportunity for both America and the rest of the folks sharing the world with the supersized one. Then again, we have a soft-spot for progressive folks that have a touch of brilliance - not your typical American choice.
My hope is for Hillary to concede, tonight. As tearful as it will be, I have no sympathy for her. She only cares for her own ambition. She is the same as McCain in political ideology.
A Barack/McCain campaign will be enlightening, to say the least. The greatest voter turnout in history will occur.
Barack edges Clinton, tonight.
I totally agree with your post and really hope you are correct with your prediction.
Obama will not win tonight. He hasn't proven himself in any large delagate rich state. He panders to the far left while writing center policy.
The Obama campaign continually complains against dirty tactics and spin. Grow up, or get another job.
This is politics, you children. Obama is a politician, he is not Jesus.
I can't wait for her to concede. Her 12million plus voters? What to do, what to do? We're actually republicans, don't you know?
I wonder if any of these Huff Post Obama supoorters care at all about WINNING this damn electiion in the fall. Oh sure, they are going do do it all on their own.
Me? I'd rather have a Churchill than Jesus in the White House.
You are clueless.
The Clinton campaign has whined about unfair treatment from the media for months.
The Clintons have engaged in the kind of smearing usually reserved for Republicans.
Depite this Obama has managed to raise more money and remain popular while her campaign is broke, her undesirable raiting is as high as Bush and she gets booed when she keeps on the negative.
If Clintons supporters don't get in line, they are as bad as Republicans. Good riddance.
yEs I want to win. That's why I want Hillary CLinton to drop out of the race. So we can rally behind our candidate and leave the attacks to the other party. Hillary can't win the general anyway. The Republicans want her to be the nominee. On the flip side, Republicans want to vote for Obama. Nobody claims he's Jesus. He's the nominee.
O' F$ck off you liar!
No one has made the messiah reference but you. We like him because he is transparent and an honestly good person, with good ideas and above average intelligence. We need a smart leader of our country. NOT some blind to the people power grubbing lying thief! We've had that and we are done!
Try harder 2 think
Beautiful dreamer, beautiful dream. I wish, too.
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
