Could there be a faster way to discover interesting galactic neighbors? Is there some scheme for detecting aliens that might work quicker than tuning in their radio transmissions or hunting down their laser pulses?
There might be, and for a simple reason. The cosmos is three times as old as Earth. During most of creation's 14 billion year history, our solar system wasn't around. Nonetheless, the early universe still had the right stuff for life, and contained worlds that were just as suitable for spawning biology and intelligence as our own.
Humans have existed only for the last 0.001 percent of cosmic time. All of which says that -- unless the Homo sapiens brain is the one-and-only instance of cogitating machinery -- nearly all the intelligence that's out there is beyond our level.
And that intelligence is more than just a little bit beyond. Clearly, unless thinking beings inevitably wipe themselves out soon after developing technology, extraterrestrial intelligence could often be millions or billions of years in advance of us. We're the galaxy's noodling newbie's.
That suggests an oft-overlooked approach to finding them. Advanced thinkers might be advanced tinkerers. Perhaps the really ambitious aliens have "disturbed the universe" (to use a phrase from British physicist Freeman Dyson) in ways that are directly visible.
This disturbance might take the form of deliberate engineering, such as the construction of mammoth artificial structures. Perhaps they've rearranged some stars into easily recognizable patterns. Maybe there's left-over debris from massively destructive wars. You can consult science fiction for other examples of what an enormously advanced society might have strewn about. It's as good a predictor as any, because obviously we don't know.
Indeed, the fact that we can't easily foresee clues that would betray an intelligence a million millennia farther down the road suggests that we're like ants trying to discover humans. Ask yourself: Would ants ever recognize houses, cars, or fire hydrants as the work of advanced biology?
The best we can do is to carefully look at the images collected (for whatever reason) by our telescopes, and decide if any of them show something that looks funny -- something that appears as if it were put together by deliberate design, rather than natural processes.
To some extent, this exercise is taking place, albeit as part of conventional astronomy research and not as a deliberate attempt to uncover alien astro-engineering. A decade ago, two Austrian astronomers, Ronald Weinberger and Herbert Hartl, reported on the results of spending more than two dozen years poring over telescopic photos of northern hemisphere skies. They discovered 12 thousand objects that were previously unknown. But they were also on the lookout for things that gave the appearance of being artificially constructed. Alas, they didn't find any.
More recently, the Galaxy Zoo project has attracted more than 150 thousand volunteers to the task of looking at astronomical photographs from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (as well as from other telescopes). The goal is to classify the morphology of the myriad galaxies visible on these pictures -- a job that astronomers were able to handle themselves until modern telescopes began disgorging billions of high-grade galaxy images. And while unexpected things have turned up in this cosmic cornucopia, so far they all seem understandable as natural objects.
Richard Carrigan, a physicist from Fermilab in Illinois, makes no bones about it: he's deliberately searching for alien hardware. Carrigan pores through astronomical data looking for star systems that emit excessive amounts of infrared light. Infrared would be the signature of waste heat from, for example, massive swarms of solar-cell satellites, placed in orbit around a star by advanced societies eager to collect as much energy as possible. He's teased out some interesting cases, but as yet, no sure-fire solar swarms.
Do these failures to find a galactic equivalent of the Great Wall of China or the interstate highway system mean anything? Is there some deep truth being revealed by the lack of any obvious, large-scale engineering in a vast and ancient universe?
Well, it might be telling us that no one's out there. On the other hand, truly sublime intelligence may not build structures large enough to show up in our pictures. Perhaps high-tech societies veer in the other direction: preferring to think small and miniaturize, rather than scale up.
Alas, such speculation -- while interesting -- is not terribly informative. After all, we've been making truly detailed telescopic images for less than a century. It's far too early to declare that space is litter free -- we haven't checked carefully. Not yet.
In addition, searching for extraterrestrial artifacts is hobbled by the fact that we don't know what we're looking for. In that regard, it's less appealing than our SETI experiments, which pick through the radio and optical spectrum looking for unambiguous, engineered signals.
Nonetheless, artifacts are available for discovery 24/7. As Weingerger and Hartl wrote, they're 'frozen messages.' You don't have to hope for an alien transmission hitting the Earth just as you swing an antenna or a telescope to the sky. And finding artifacts -- which might be the unexpected outcome of everyday astronomy -- benefits from a large labor force. There are at least a thousand times as many astronomers as there are SETI researchers.
So don't rule out serendipity. Sometimes the greatest discoveries are made by those who aren't even looking.
Jonathan M. Borwein: Pi Day in America
Seth Shostak: They're Not Meat
Next, here's something to consider. Most planets are utterly pockmarked by constant asteroid impacts. It's a regular pinball game out there, complete with lights. This has an adverse effect on life forming, or getting very far when it does form.
Earth is uniquely protected from asteroid impacts by Jupiter's gravity. That we are so protected is an astronomical coincidence that other planets simply don't enjoy.
So I believe that life is very rare, and advanced life much rarer, if it exists at all. And it's not travelling to meet us.
Earth is possibly unique, and we better take care of her and just forget about aliens.
Read parts 1 to 9 and all the responses before reading this :
Yes… All these are speculative ideas….It was speculation when Einstein thought the Germans were moving too fast towards the AB…That led him to write a letter to President Roosevelt.…that led to the setting up of the Briggs Committee followed by the National Defense Research Committee… Sometime in between there was the Pearl harbour attack… Another letter to spell out the urgency, that led to the setting up of the Manhattan Project for the design and development of the AB, Bombing of Hiroshima by the US, that ensured the first use of the AB.
As we all know, this was followed by a Frantic build up of Nuclear capabilities by powerful nations of the World.
And now there is the urgency to ensure control of such build up by other nations…. Nations where intelligence is in a race with `EGO` which I am afraid is leading.
But is that simple ?
And so I am speculating…Consider the geopolitics of the planet… The situation in Pakistan..Yes..Its speculation that these guys called the Al Quida and the Taliban With the help of some of their supporters in the ISI ..might be moving closer and closer towards acquisition and control of some nuclear arsenal and when they actually get dangerously close enough …The US may be hard pressed for time …
(to be continued)
They (The US) will have to act in real quick time to destroy the arsenal and yet they do not know where all of it is located…. And so will the AQ, T, and others be hard pressed for time … If they don`t use it … they can lose it… Such a serious issue..we have not seen even in movies so far.
Consider Israel…In the eyes of its enemies in its neighborhood, it’s a small country…so small..its just a one bomb nation, and its leaders know that ..and that is why its extremely cautious and wary of any other country acquiring NA and that is why it is always in a threatening posture and may at any moment do something silly..
And then of course there is North Korea … with 1 % INTELLIGENCE and 99% EGO.
With all this ..a 1 in 200 chance of a nuclear attack taking place anywhere on Earth in a calendar year … and a 1 in 4 chance of a global chain reaction following each nuclear attack…are these unrealistic assumptions?... Yet these are the parameters - and their values – considered to arrive at the conclusion, of a 50 % probability of Self destruction taking place within the next 250 years … and will get worse and worse with rising population
…. And if good sense doesn’t prevail..a near certain collapse of human race within 500 years.
(To be continued)
Once again, SK, you are too optomistic. But I appreciate the intelligence your speculations even when I disagree.
Reason: From a relativistic POV, our existence is at the bottom of the light spectrum where time exists (supremely slowly and likely deterministic).
For example, you can imagine our existence from an outsider POV by imagining a glacier. You can't see it's movement, but if you watch long enough, you can detect movement and even place markings for reference. So you know the glacier moves; albeit very slowly.
Gravity rules movement of the glacier. Regardless of what happens within the glacier, gravity determines the glacier's ultimate fate.
So while your ideas are interesting and relevant (to us), your references may or likely hold no meaning in the larger deterministic path all potential life within the universe is likely following. And while you might be right, our failure or success, is likely accounted for in the universal big picture.
We are given galactic space and time to thrive (so is all potential life throughout the universe). Some will endure, some won't. Who knows the percentage of success or failure. Lucky for us, there's an inherent will to survive within all of us that should help us to persist and endure no matter what disaster may occur. Time will tell, friend.
I am encouraged by the responses and the Fav`s …. And so I carry on…..This could be Ambitious… or Trivial.. I am ok with whatever you think.
There is an enormously wide range of probabilities…. of whats in store for all of us in the future.
To begin with let me talk about the word `TRIVIA` and how sometimes TRIVIA becomes IMPORTANT.
Some one said ``This is a weird universe… not only is it weirder than what we imagine….it is in fact weirder than we CAN imagine``.
What are the limits - You can think of - to the extent to which TRIVIA can become IMPORTANT.
For example .. is it possible that a plain and simple `Walk in the garden` can change the history of the Milky Way ?.... Tell me how.
Let this be a brain teaser….I`ll come back in Part 7,,,, after a little gap of time
(To be continued)
What follows is just hypothetical….. Not a true story.
Consider a man called `Z`…. Z was reading a book till late into the night. He then decided to call it a day … he was about to bolt the main door from inside… when he felt a nice breeze outside and decided to take a walk in the garden ….. After a 5 minute walk he returned, closed his door and went to sleep.
About 150 years later nearly 20 million people die …..Who would not actually have died had this gentleman called 'Z' not taken that walk…. Can you figure out how?......
Well its like this… during that walk in the garden, 'Z' was bitten by a mosquito…. Two days later he had an attack of malaria …soon he was in hospital where he was treated for a week. Thereafter, on being discharged, he returned home and carried on with his life.
So ?..
During his treatment in the hospital, he fell in love with the nurse who looked after him. They later got married, and had a daughter.
…. ……
SHE WAS HITLER`S GRANDMOTHER….
You might ask the question…`What difference could that `walk in the garden` make to the history of the Milky way?`
Ref … Part 8 … after a little gap of time.
(To be continued)
Now we are playing with probabilities…
Its possible in tens of thousands of years we may start colonizing the Milky Way if we do not self destruct before that.
What if …. Einstein did not write a certain letter to President Roosevelt…And there was no Manhatten Project…. And Germany made the first use of nuclear bombs and won the second World war…And soon other countries developed and accumulated nuclear arsenal on a war footing… And there was a global chain reaction leading to a collapse and extinction of the human race….And no such colonization.
And so that `Walk in the garden` …altered the history of the Milky way.
OR
What if …. That daughter turned out to be yours truly`s grandmother?..... Again hypothetical .
Ref ... Part 9
( To be continued )
If we succeed in evolving to the point where we do not murder millions of each other every year, and where we do not pose a threat to the ability of this planet to sustain higher life, then perhaps at that point we will be both capable and worthy of interacting with more advanced life forms. Until that time comes, if indeed it ever comes, there is a chance that higher forms of life deem it wise to make themselves invisible to us.
NO MORE BS ! Kc ;-\
http://www.youtube.com/embed/eRyZyvcyeGI
The man who came up with the idea, Jean-Pierre Houdin, believes the lower 30% of the pyramid was built with the stones hauled up external ramps, with the upper 70% built using "internal ramps." This explanation eliminates a conundrum in earlier theories. Houdin joined forces with a specialized architectural firm that created a 3-D blueprint, one doable by the ancient Egyptians.
I apologize for being unable to find any link to the original documentary; I had to search to find Houdin's name. (All I could remember is that he's French and grew up in Africa). there's a decent summary of his ideas in Wikipedia, though it doesn't mention that the stones used get thinner as the pyramid one goes higher up the face, which, as I recall, is important to the idea. Here's the link to that:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Pierre_Houdin
Sagan felt that the reason we see no evidence of intelligent life is the high likelyhood that it destroys itself...just sayin. Maybe intelligence is the least favored evolutionary trait in the universe.
What if like we are undergoing right now, most intelligent species endure a 'critical mass phase' of development, where in order to reach the technological/societal sophistication and motivation necessary to begin the process of decoupling practical technological needs and species imperatives from the need for environmental destruction to achieve it, they must first create environmental destruction?
Those species able to reach the level of star-faring civilizations have likely done so only by blunting or reversing a necessary environmental holocaust as industry and technology are first developed. From a 'meta' viewpoint, this is precisely the sort of high-wire act we see highly successful life forms perform routinely. As with our great push toward space flight, our great push to mitigate and reverse the ecological damage we cause is spawning enormously useful technology and technique.
I'm sure there is the occasional local breakout of 'locust' species, but if (as seems likely) there are many races, then all you have is a larger ecology. There would have to be push-back. A competing interest. Some contravening force. Or we wouldn't be here. They would.
Balance must be maintained, or all is lost. No matter what species, that is simply a universal truth.
About a third of my comments disappear, which, according to comments I've seen from other people, is not unusual. I don't know if it's a mod issue or a tech problem.
I've only been flagged twice. One was a greeting to a friend, so I don't know why it was flagged. The other was a lament about comments disappearing; I got a response from someone who wrote he was flagging me just to be a d***, which he spelled out. My comment was flagged before his.
In the meantime, most of the comments that people post are, at best, unoriginal, more often, insulting. On the political articles, most of the comments say “you're an idiot,” or “typical liberal,” or “stupid bagger.” While such comments may be true, they are all heat and no light.
When someone sends me a stupid response, if I don't ignore it, I reply that I welcome debate with people whose epistemological rigor is equal to or surpasses my own. That ends the conversation.
You are my only worthy debate opponent here. I usually agree with all of my other friends.
(Continued from part 3 below):
GALACTIC COLONIZATION: The TC must survive about 50 million years (by avoiding self destruction) to achieve this objective, to develop interstellar space travel, to develop fusion power and other technologies to construct large space vehicles that can travel at one-thousandth the speed of light, as well as have its own biosphere and containing a social unit of tens of thousands of people to enable 10000 years of travel time at a stretch, by halting at one destination for 10000 years before embarking on the next journey. In this way it is possible to diffuse outward @ 10 light years per 20000 years and colonize a substantial portion of the galaxy in 50 million years (which is not even 0.5 percent of the present age of the Universe).
GALACTIC SELECTION: The TC must understand and implement properly a certain law called ` THE BIOGALACTIC LAW’. Given below is a very interesting para from ERH`s book referred above, on this subject:
`` THE BIOGALACTIC LAW: We are the outcome of natural selection and to the operation of this law can be attributed the fitness of the human body and brain. Presumably this is true also of the life on other planets that attains a state of advanced intelligence. When a civilization gains control of its planetary environment, the evolutionary game changes, however, and new rules determine what is fit and unfit.
(To be continued)
Natural selection now operates on a planet-wide scale according to a biogalactic law that will be referred to as galactic selection.
This speculative law of Galactic Selection states simply :`Intelligent life forms that are destructively aggressive do not colonize the galaxy’. This law operates conceivably in two modes; the first is unconscious and automatic, and the second is conscious and deliberate.``
The two words `do not` in the above definition of the Biogalactic law probably correspond to the five words `will not be permitted to`.
It goes without saying that the above objectives are indeed very difficult to achieve and even a very optimistic value that can be accorded to the factor P9 cannot exceed 0.1.
Hence the conclusion:
The Technological civilization of the planet Earth may have reached the top hundred in the Milky Way, but it may not reach the top ten if it self destructs before that
We're likely grandiose thinking an intelligent life form would be remotely interested in communicating with us for several reasons.
First...what's the point? We aren't as evolved as we think we are. We're likely ants of the universe by advanced intelligence standards.
Second...interaction must be mutually beneficial. What's the benefit to AI?
Third...AI doesn't likely waste their time with primitive and inefficient EM signals.
Four...AI is likely mental powers of magnitude beyond us (an inherent barrier we aren't close to graduating for a long time to come).
Five...AI would know interference in our evolution is likely a disaster waiting to happen or at the least would stunt potential diversity in the galaxy.
Six... An intelligence barrier exists which our senses don't allow us to perceive.
Seven...How would we communicate or what would we have in common with AI originating in a world bathed in radiation, a gas giant or even a star? Maybe to them, we don't even exist. Maybe we're so alien and primitive, they would find us irrelevant.
Most likely: AI will signal their presence (on their terms) when they deem we're ready.
This is in response to a very interesting observation made by phal4875...Ref 2:16pm today
The number of stars in the Milky Way is so large that the probability of at least 100 Technological civilizations at least as intelligent as the one on The planet Earth is reasonably high as worked out below:
(Refer `Cosmology `….. By Edward R. Harrison – The chapter on `Life in the Universe`)
If N = Number of stars in the galaxy (Milky Way),
Then the number of Technological Civilizations (TCs) that may have existed/still existing is given by:
n = N*P1*P2*P3*P4*P5*P6*P7*
Where P1 is the fraction of stars in the galaxy similar to the Sun ie not too blue, not too red and not members of closed binary systems. Reasonable estimate 0.1.
P2 is the fraction of sun like stars having earthlike planets. Optimistic estimate 1.0 and conservative estimate 0.1
P3 is the fraction of such planets occupying a habitable zone, ie neither too close (like Venus), nor too far (Like Mars) from the parent star. Reasonable estimate 0.1
P4 is the probability that life originates in a unicellular form. Reasonable estimate 0.1
P5 is the probability that it evolves into complex multicellular organisms like mammals. Many optimists may consider P5 to be close to unity but recognizing the hazards and traps involved a conservative estimate is 0.1.
(To be continued)
P6 is the probability that life develops intelligence. Again many optimists consider this inevitable but ERH again takes a conservative approach. He feels that the environment must in some way administer rude shocks in the right way at the right times to the right species, so that natural selection will favor the development of large brains and the probability of this happening is very small - - about 0.1
P7 is the probability that intelligent life discovers Science and develops an advanced technological civilization. Here again an optimist would take P7 as almost unity but a pessimist would take a different view. Science was not discovered by the cultures of Africa, America, China, India, and Japan etc.Science arose because of accidental and improbable circumstances that existed in Greece and later in Europe. Efforts of a few individuals, who rejected the magic of gods, can be considered as the first steps that created Science. Later it was revived in Europe in the face of organized hostility. Again a conservative estimate of 0.1 is assumed for P7.
Based on above estimated values of the factors P1 to P7, the likely number of TCs ( in the Milky Way only and not the Universe as a whole) that may have existed sometime in the past, inclusive of those which are still existing varies from about 10 million(Optimistic estimate) to about 10000(Pessimistic estimate).According to ERH this number is closer to the lower estimate.
(To be continued)
How many of these TCs still exist today? ... If this number is denoted by n1.. its value is equal to P8*n1. What is P8?
There are many many ways in which aTC can collapse... such as cosmological collisions(Asteroid hits in case of Earth), climatic and other conditions no more suitable for continuance of life., but none of these has greater probability than self destruction by aggressive approach. Developement of science creates new hazards and the chances are that most TCs are short lived. Conflicts, wars, terrorism,and misadventure, and above all the possibility of nuclear wars gives a low value of 0.1(optimistic) or 0.01(pessimistic) to the factor P8.
And so out of 10000 TCs that have arisen in the galaxy, perhaps between 100 and 1000 are still surviving.
How many of these are likely to survive permanently?
If this number is denoted by n2, its value is equal to P9*n1.
What is P9?
Two objectives must be fulfilled in order to survive permanently (at least as long as the Stelliferrous age)
(To be continued)
Let's look at the evolution of multicellular life. Once it happened it was done. So all we really know is that it happened once in a long time span, the time from the beginning of cellular life until the development of multi-celled organisms. We know from fossils that cells existed 3.5 Billion years ago. Multi-celled organisms appeared .7 Billion years ago. That means it happened once in 2.8 Billion years. Therefore the pessimistic estimate is 0.0000000003!
We get a similar thing if we look at the probability of intelligent life. Let's be real liberal on this one. Let's start not with multi-cellular life but animal life, assuming once the first happens the second just does. Then lets assume that intelligent life showed up with Homo Erectus and date that as a million years ago. Animals appeared in the Cambrian Explosion 500 million years ago That means animals evolved into intelligent life once in 499 Million years. Therefore the pessimistic estimate is 0.000000002!
continued