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Seth Shostak

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Armageddon: 1,000,000,000 A.D.

Posted: 02/28/2012 12:45 pm

Apocalypse is always fashionable news. After all, what could be a bigger story than the end of the Earth, or at least its veneer of troublesome, hominid fuzz?

The past 12 months have seen plenty of predictions on the imminent demise of either the planet or some substantial fraction of its human inhabitants. This year, the winner in the end-times sweepstakes is a highly hyped warning from the Mayan calendar. If you believe this stuff, the world will come to an end just in time for Christmas.

I don't believe it, so I'm still getting my car smogged, and paying my 2012 estimated taxes. One reason I'm pretty sure I'll see 2013 is that the mechanism proposed for the Mayan final twitch is some sort of bonkers, massively malevolent cosmic alignment, presumably involving the center of our galaxy. Sure, the galactic center is big and brawny, but work it out: its gravitational pull on Earth is about one-thousandth that of Jupiter -- and that spotted and striped planet aligns with us all the time, provoking neither comment nor catastrophe.

In fact, predicting the end of the world, while always popular, has little precedent for success. Consider the worst disasters you can recall. The Black Plague claimed about 75 million victims during the 14th century, and in historical times we've had two world wars and the 1918 flu epidemic. All of these were tragic on a scale not seen before. But they weren't Armageddon.

Apocalypse is major theater, and in the history of this planet giant rocks from space are among the few villains up to the part. The asteroid that snuffed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago also wiped out the majority of all land dwelling species. That could happen again, and it's certainly a worthy worry. However, there's a good chance that we'll be able to deflect the next large rock targeting our planet. It's one scenario that needn't play out.

Another contender for major mishap was the time, about 700 million years ago, when naturally-induced climate change caused all the oceans -- from the poles to the equator -- to freeze over. "Snowball Earth" was a true catastrophe, although it didn't wipe out all terrestrial life.

In fact, in the last 4 billion years, nothing has managed to completely eradicate Earth's biology. Nothing. And despite the various dangers we pose to ourselves, humans aren't capable of sterilizing the planet either.

So is apocalypse merely a fantasy that will never happen? Like self-making beds, or carefree hair?

Of course not -- there will be an end to life on Earth.

Most people are aware that the Sun is slowly running out of fuel. Eventually, it will briefly swell up to dozens of times its present size, and end its life as a cooling charcoal briquette. The onset of this depressing scenario is five billion years hence. But between now and then, we will confront another dismal circumstance. As the Sun burns through its energy supply, it actually gets brighter. Indeed, over the course of the next billion years, the Sun will become about 10 percent more luminous than it is now.

Several years ago, Penn State academics James Kasting and Ken Caldeira (now at the Carnegie Institute at Stanford University) worked out some of the consequences of this slow ramping up of the Sun's output. The important points are these: The oceans, made warmer, will evaporate more quickly, injecting vast amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere. Water vapor -- in case you've forgotten -- is the most important greenhouse gas. So the result is even more warming, and yet more evaporation.

In addition, increased rainfall on a hotter world will cause faster weathering of rocks, which will send greater amounts of calcium and silicate materials into the oceans. There, small sea creatures will combine these compounds with the carbon dioxide that's dissolved in the oceans (like seltzer water) to make their protective shells. When the creatures die, their mostly calcium carbonate outerwear falls to the ocean floor. There, it piles up uselessly as biological wallboard. This mechanism slowly locks up much of the world's supply of carbon dioxide.

The net result of this little bit of global chemistry is that Earth will be a warmer planet, yes, but one with less carbon dioxide in its air. You might think that the reduced CO2 would cause enough cooling to offset the additional warming due to the Sun and all that atmospheric water vapor, but it won't. However, the reduction in CO2 will do this: It will cause nearly all the important plants in our food chain to die. For animals, that means slow starvation.

Now that's an apocalypse worthy of the name. No, it's not in the Mayan calendar, but it's something our distant descendants are guaranteed to confront.

Maybe they can put giant sunshades in space, or pull off some other technical tour de force to avoid the problem, and sidestep Armageddon. It's not impossible. But in the meantime, my advice is to forget the Mayan calendar, count on a long string of tomorrows, and get your car smogged.

 
Apocalypse is always fashionable news. After all, what could be a bigger story than the end of the Earth, or at least its veneer of troublesome, hominid fuzz? The past 12 months have seen plenty of p...
Apocalypse is always fashionable news. After all, what could be a bigger story than the end of the Earth, or at least its veneer of troublesome, hominid fuzz? The past 12 months have seen plenty of p...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
CSKAP
Morlock or Eloi?
12:14 PM on 03/06/2012
Most estimates that I’ve read put human existence and the progenitors to humans at about 2,000,000 years old.
If we accept that the “age of Dinosaurs” ended about 65,000,000 years ago, other dominant species could have risen 32 times in the time it took humans to rise.
Perhaps there is an ongoing cycle of rising and falling.
We’ll flame out in a few centuries and over time another will rise.
09:51 PM on 03/03/2012
Why would anyone assume humans will be around a billion years from now? Or, for that matter, a million? As a species we're between 40,000 and 100,000 years old, and we have every reason to believe we're long past our prime and skidding into extinction. Maybe not right away, though the way we're treating our place on Earth right now may hasten it.
03:52 PM on 03/03/2012
The Greek word (a·po·ka′ly·psis) thus translated denotes “an uncovering” or “a disclosure” and is often used regarding revelations of spiritual matters or of God’s will and purposes.

Of course not -- there will be an end to life on Earth.
Did you receive this revelation from God.? Its just that the bible says that the earth is standing forever and that obedient mankind will live forever on the earth. Rev 21v3-4 shows that death will be no more.

The asteroid that snuffed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago also wiped out the majority of all land dwelling species.
What historical evidence are you citing for this revelation, 65 million years is a long time.
The earth or mankind will not be snuffed out only wicked men and those ruining bthe earth will go at armageddon. Rev11v18
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flinthfp
1John 5:11-12 Eternal Life in flesh
08:41 PM on 03/06/2012
***obedient mankind will live forever on the earth*****
Not as it is now - The law of thermodynamics - Entropy Romans 8:20
Rev 21 says that saved resurrected mankind will live in a NEW Heaven and NEW Earth.
Consider the death and resurrection of Christ 1 Corinthians 1:23-25
What is happening here ???
To bring ALL things in Heaven and Earth together Ephesians 1:9-10
God was pleased to have ALL HIS FULLNESS dwell in him to reconcile to HIMSELF ALL things in Heaven and Earth. Colossians 1:19-20
As in the ORIGINAL creation of the universe by Yahweh through his Son Hebrews 1:2-3
Now through his death ...the sustaining power of the author of life dies and subsequently ALL things that were created through him die..the universe and all in it Hebrews 1:10-12...Ephesians 1:3-14..BUT
through his resurrection by Yahweh a NEW creation ..the FIRST and the LAST is being reborn so that mortality can put on immortality through the power of the resurrection Hebrews 7:16. Romans 8:20-25 (who hopes for what he already has ???)
Those who accept him, repent and receive the promise of the Holy Spirit become a NEW CREATION 2 Corinthians 5:17 ...The resurrection is described in 1 Corinthians 15: 42-56, bodies suitable for the NEW STATE of the NEW Heavens and NEW Earth.
Shalom
04:59 AM on 03/07/2012
Interesting but not accurate. The bible often uses the word heaven to denote rulership or government, the new heaven is the kingdom government that Jesus taught his followers to pray for in the lords prayer. The new earth represents a new earthly society of righteous people. By means of the Kingdom the earth will be cleansed of all wickedness. Rev 11v18
The new creation is fulfilled upon Christians who will be resurrected to heaven to rule with Christ. The bible identifies there number as 144 thousand. See Rev14v1
TomMartin
Freedom and equality.
06:45 AM on 03/02/2012
I sure hope there is life after death, so humanity does not have to go extinct, at least in some heaven or something.
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01:24 PM on 03/02/2012
And I wish I win the lottery, because being rich would be nice.
TomMartin
Freedom and equality.
04:06 PM on 03/02/2012
Being rich might be nice temporarily, but research has shown that lottery winners then return to the same level of happiness or unhappiness that they had before winning. But if there is heavenly happiness after death, that might never disappear. At least I hope so.
04:31 PM on 03/01/2012
Outside of all the obvious asinine and bemusing actions humanity engages in where it relates to ignoring the truths and facts of the scientific community, there is one more elephant in the room that may prove to be the most terrifying of all. The threat of catastrophic religious holy wars (with access to nuclear firepower) is one of the most terrifying potential dangers threatening our species' existence. Humanity has made conscious efforts to subdue reason. We embrace anti-intellectualism and value "blind faith" above all.

Mankind can't seem to understand that he only evolved because of his high cognitive abilities. Without our third dimension of brain power (reason), we are no different than many other primates we rule over. It seems that man wants to revert to primitive ideologies and the price to pay for this is extinction. Many believe that "conflict" is evidence of their faith coming true. This is misguided manifest destiny and is deadly. As religious tensions and wars continue to show prevalence, how long will it be before someone gets access to a game-ending weapon?

Point is..man has disrespected science and truth...denied reason and intelligence..pursued vanity and self-glory above all and has no idea how this could bring us all to our end..very soon. If this beautiful Earth doesn't catastrophically end us first because we disrespect it, mankind may speed up the process on his own volition and take us there anyway.
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Linus521
In wildness is the salvation of mankind
03:32 AM on 03/01/2012
The ecology of the Earth, and Earth's ecologists and ecologically literate scientists maintain, mankind exists because of Earth's, natural, life creating and sustaining physical body or Earth's natural, wild ecosystems, the real Earth before mankind began to plow, deforest, bulldoze, chain saw and concrete the living body of Earth and all the reasons mankind breathes. As each day, modern man continues on his merry, hapless path of destroying all the reasons he exists and breathes, and this has accelerated massively in the last thirty years, we can safely predict, man will be extinct in the near future.

Ecologically literate scientists maintain, man is "suicidal" when he kills ecosystems, the natural, real Earth as opposed to man's concrete, asphalt, bricks, chain saws, bulldozers and concrete, all about as life giving and supporting as the surface of Mars.

Probably the extinction with man will result as a global, disease pandemic, like the plague or the 1918 flu pandemic, all caused by ecological rape and destruction. We are, also, living in a spasm of extinction of biodiversity, the strands in the web of all life, 1,000 times higher than normal as these very species are the creators and saviors of Earth's ecosystems and the rivets holding spaceship Earth, altogether.

Many species have fallen extinct previously; why does man assume he cannot kill all the reasons man breathes. At one time, man believed the Titanic was unsinkable. Why not wage our chances on everything that spells, life itself?
12:00 PM on 03/01/2012
???
12:07 AM on 03/01/2012
If the human race survives the next few hundred years we are likely to spread through the galaxy and the destruction of Earth will not matter, and likely we will have the technology to keep Earth habitable at least for a while through geo engineering or moving the Earth farther from the Sun. Perhaps we will have alien intelligences to communicate with to help come up with technologies and solutions.
12:01 PM on 03/01/2012
"We", for sure, won't spread through the galaxy. That's way too big a place for humans to live in. Our machines or the species we will evolve into might.
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07:35 PM on 02/29/2012
Today we cannot begin to guess what the human species might be capable of knowing and doing a billion years from now. Until the last century, I do not know that anyone thought in terms of billions of years. It was either a lifetime or eternity. That is to say, time was on our side. Now we, humans, have persuasive evidence for confident predictions of the mortality of our planet Earth.

I find the teaching persuasive that we can find no reason for humans to exist apart from such reasons as we may generate. That does not mean that we already understand everything that happens. It is good that informed science has learned to be comfortable with mysteries. They are encountered regularly. Currently, the big ones are dark matter and dark energy, black holes, quantum physics, etc. I recall vividly when it was brought to my attention that time was no longer on our side. Does that not suggest that what we need, in addition to doing our best to preserve our planet, is a shared sense of hope for the future?

Paying attention to who has hope and who does not, in the here and now, offers some guidelines. We need to pay attention. And that is how I understand this article.
12:03 PM on 03/01/2012
"Today we cannot begin to guess what the human species might be capable of knowing and doing a billion years from now."

Actually, we can. The tool for that is called "science". All you have to do is to apply it to the problem and you can estimate what we will, and will not, do.
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11:02 PM on 03/01/2012
What you describe is not science but "scientism," turning empiricism into a religion. Science has respect for theories of cause-effect. We, humans, come into the equation as an anomalous cause, new at every moment; we call it "freedom." Now should you not believe in freedom, I can understand. We are free to think of ourselves as just cogs in a wheel.
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12:40 PM on 02/29/2012
"In fact, predicting the end of the world, while always popular, has little precedent for success."

Not exactly a bold statement since you're here to write it and we're here to read it.
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JWebberPhoto
Ain't skeered
04:47 PM on 02/29/2012
I took it as humorous understatement.
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Ray Russelburg
09:39 AM on 02/29/2012
If we keep breeding dumby's like the guy in the other article that dropped the gun while robbing a couple guys then returned later to attempt to buy it back from them, I predict we will either be too stupid to be able to prevent it or have bread ourselved BACK into our genetic origins...
09:42 PM on 02/28/2012
You managed to anger extremists in both camps. What will the end of the world Christians and climate change nuts do without their Apocalypse.
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Linus521
In wildness is the salvation of mankind
03:49 AM on 03/01/2012
The answers lie in the science of ecology. The ecology of Earth explains how Earth operates and functions to create and sustain all life. According to this science, mankind exists only because of the stability and health of Earth's natural, life giving physical body of Earth or her ecosystems and their biodiversity. An ecosystem is one, living organism, kept alive and life giving because of the diversity of their plant and animal biodiversity.

Now, we are discussing the life supporting services of ecosystems, like oxygen releasing, the atmosphere, the natural regulation and moderation of the climate, the natural sequestration of the heat trapping gases, the provision of the nitrogen cycle and the hydrological storage and flux to the entirety of Earth's biogeochemistry and the very life zone of Earth, her biosphere/ecosphere or life itself, to name a handful of ecosystem vital, free" life supporting services".

Though terrestrial ecosystems occupy only 30 percent of Earth's natural surface, these ecosystems support the vast majority of all life on Earth. Science maintains, plants/trees on Earth's surface, were the most significant, most critical event in all of evolutionary history, and modern man is in the business of killing tree and plant biodiversity or logging, deforestation, concreting and plowing the real Earth or killing the Earth for extractions of energy, cities, corn fields, bulldozers and houses or a planet as life giving as the surface of Mars. Dead planet versus a living, life giving Earth!
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01:33 PM on 03/02/2012
I don't think any climate change "believer" thinks the world is going to literally end if it isn't addressed.

The world will survive just fine. 90+% of all species will be dead, and there will be some kind of redistributing over several millions of years, as there is with every other mass extinction event.
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marignymitch
E pluribus unum percent
06:47 PM on 02/28/2012
In view of our behavior historically I strongly suspect there will be no human descendants left to face the end of the planet,
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Linus521
In wildness is the salvation of mankind
04:01 AM on 03/01/2012
If any credibility exists to the science of ecology, man is most assuredly killing all the reasons he exists. Man exists only because of Earth's natural surface, that which seeded all life and maintains it today or the natural surface of Earth, her ecosystems and their life giving plant and animal biodiversity, the strands in the web of all life and every reason man breathes.

If man is in the business of entombing, concreting, bulldozing and chain sawing the natural, real surface of the Earth, in the economy of all life or Earth's ecosystems and their plant and animal biodiversity, how can man not be killing all the reasons he exists?

I suppose we can all bury our heads in the sand, but this one is an immense gamble, the very fate of mankind. They said the Titanic couldn't sink, right?

Tragically, the Earth can fail to support and give life to all that lives, but what normal, intelligent individual wishes to gamble with these odds because if Earth fails to support and create all life, mankind's destiny is doomed. He is as dependent on ecosystems as Earth is to the sun.
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Joffan
Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so.
05:57 PM on 02/28/2012
Clearly we urgently need to get going on the asteroid redirection to pull the Earth's orbit up a little bit further from the Sun. Say, sometime in the next couple of million years.
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
12:15 AM on 02/29/2012
We can probably leave it for a couple of hundred million years, but that would be extremely tough.
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oneeasyrider
E=mc2: From light you exist
10:36 PM on 02/29/2012
Maybe you're right. If Chinese are serious about building their space elevator, they're going to need a counterweight so we could kill two birds with one stone. ;-)
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laymancanuck
IGNORANCE has used up its quota of TOLERANCE
05:29 PM on 02/28/2012
Unfortunately mankind will not be around to worry about a natural Armageddon. Unless humans can evolve to the point they can resolve conflict peacefully. With our history and the present state of the world it appears we are 10,000 generations away from that.
08:05 PM on 02/28/2012
10,000 generations is between us and the earliest examples of homo sapiens...not sure you would want to make a connection to that ancestry. They might not be very nice people. And human evolution has probably sped up by many orders of magnitude (simply because there are so many more of us that nature can try many more variations), so it's not clear what we will be that far into the future.
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laymancanuck
IGNORANCE has used up its quota of TOLERANCE
09:26 PM on 02/28/2012
A good point, thanks.
02:28 AM on 02/29/2012
There ain't gonna be no "Armygeddon", but Mother is gonna split her planet, right, in two. She told me so, in no uncertain terms. Read all about it, free! Go to carlfrederick.org and click on "What To Do" free read.
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laymancanuck
IGNORANCE has used up its quota of TOLERANCE
11:47 AM on 02/29/2012
Thanks for self promoting. There is nothing I like more the people self promoting.
04:24 PM on 02/28/2012
This is an interesting topic but I think mankind will experience a "man made apocalypse" before the natural cycle of the universe has a chance to do it's own thing. Nuclear weaponry triggered simultaneously from around the globe could be one of those uncontrollable events. But the demise of mankind will more likely come from a mishap in a biological event. We've only scratched the surface on what the world of science has been doing with chemicals and viruses. And then there is the work at Cern. If a black hole was created without the ability to contain it's growth or expansion, we might be the first ever humans to see half of mankind disappear in an instant flash. All these ideas will probably never happen, but if they do, we probably won't know what to do or have the time to investigate .
02:32 AM on 02/29/2012
Yo Joe! We must never forget Mum's immutable Law: "For Every Action There Is An Equal And Opposite Reaction." In that light, as a direct re-action to our collective hubris, Mum intends to split her planet, right, in two. And you (along with the rest of us) have a choice about which side you'll end up-on. Read all about it, free! Go to carlfrederick.org and click on "What To Do When The Earth Splits In Two" free read...
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Linus521
In wildness is the salvation of mankind
04:32 AM on 03/01/2012
Think in terms of right today, what is in the food chain with man that attacks his exploding populations? All of Earth's life is governed by her natural, physical body or her ecosystems and their biodiversity, the strands in the web of all life.

When man plowed the Aids Highway through an African ecosystem for access to agriculture, three new, very deadly, viruses appeared -- Aids, Marsburg and the ebola virus, capable of wiping out 85 to 95 percent of every human, Man's extinction will most probably be caused by a virus, like the 1918 influenza virus that wiped out millions. Take the world's population of today, the same virus would have been catastrophic!

Yes, man is in the food chain with viruses, bacteria and fungi. Today, science is deeply concerned about another virus that struck in Kansas and was trotted to Europe for WW1, killing more humans than the war or another bird flu. Killing the natural, life giving surface of the Earth with energy explorations, cities, concrete, bricks, bulldozers and chain saws, spawn new human disease pathogens. Why, these unnatural changes to the Earth are as life giving and sustaining as the surface of Mars, and they spawn human disease pathogens and vectors.

The problem is, almost everyone is clueless as to why mankind exists and breathes, and it has nothing to do with the financial economy but the eco--nomy of the Earth, her ecosystems and their biodiversity of animals and plants!