Buying Time

The first four years of military operations in Iraq consisted of "search and destroy" missions that turned many Iraqis into insurgents. Accompanied by small pockets of Al-Qaeda, Shia death squads, Sunni militias, and civil war, the prospect of a free and stable Iraq appeared to be impossible. With an impotent Congress unwilling to check a stubborn President determined to inflict more damage through his own incompetence, things seemed hopeless in Iraq. I have always been one of the harshest critics of the war and I was no fan of the troop surge by any stretch of the imagination. However, the "clear and hold" strategy that coincided with the surge did reduce the level of violence on the ground. This bought us more time on the game clock to decipher a real exit strategy. However, the fragile success of the surge can be easily reversed. Now the issue is sustaining the current conditions long enough for us to start bringing our troops home.

Political progress has been demonstrated in Al-Anbar by turning control over to the Sunnis. Iraq's Prime Minister Al-Malaki stated that the United States must set a timetable to start withdrawing our troops. This sounds very promising but there is a flip-side to the coin.

Many of the same people who control Al-Anbar are former Sunni insurgents who were killing our troops on behalf of Al-Qaeda until they decided it was more beneficial for them to deal with us. The Mahdi Army, controlled by Al-Sadr, remains organized and quite strong magnifying the Iranian influence over the Shia population. Thousands of insurgent fighters with American blood on their hands are now on our payroll as security guards and their desire to be nonsectarian is unproved. Most of Iraq's cities have primitive civil institutions that are unable to provide services to the population. The essential economic diversities that are needed to appease the many sectarian groups are lagging. In addition, the remaining Sunni vs. Shia rivalry has been subdued by penetrable barriers in Baghdad communities.

The surge was intended to be a short-term military tactic not a long-term strategy. As General Petraeus said "there is no military solution." Hopefully, the American people have not forgotten that established fact. The matter of sustaining the current state of affairs in Iraq depends solely on the willingness of the American people as a whole to "kick in" and sacrifice.

The price of occupying Iraq is 3 billion dollars per week, along with loss of life and limb, and a broken military. The time has come for the "stay the course" element in America to come to grips with the reality that the maintenance costs of this occupation will hit the home front.

For experimental purposes let's assume that all those who support the war (while choosing not to serve) now understand that this can no longer be a spectator sport. No more chest beating or flag waving in a display of false patriotism that is at the expense of other people's lives -- and shopping is definitely out of the question. Instead the President calls on them to enlist in the Army or Marine Corps. If they are too old, their kids are called upon to serve. They will support the government raising taxes and will buy war bonds to pay for the war they so ardently support. Just imagining this hitting the fan blades is entertaining in a sense of curiousness to see how many red blooded Americans would be up for the "Pepsi challenge." In reality this would be a morale killer for the American people causing them to lose their nerve before achieving the "victory" they love to chant.

No one can be sure whether or not Iraq will succeed or fail in the absence of the US military. The conditions in Iraq are so fluid and unpredictable that victory or defeat can't be defined. But with the unknown comes the certainty that we must start the full withdrawal of our military as soon as President Bush leaves office. The well has run dry in terms of the resources needed to continue this mission and the American people in their "heart of hearts" are not in this for the long haul. If we were told the truth from the beginning that this would be a multiple decade conquest we never would have signed on.

The purpose of the surge was to bring about breathing room for political reconciliation to take place so our military can leave Iraq. Suffice it to say that the surge did all it could do to create those conditions. The surge forces have supposedly been redeployed, yet we remain 150,000 strong in Iraq.

Last summer I met with a very influential Republican Congressman who told me "If political progress is made in Iraq due to the surge that is all the more reason to leave. If not, that is reason to leave too." Well, time is ticking.

Comments

[jcorrington]

John, I always read your articles, as you are a paragon of common sense and logic. I just want folks to think long and hard about transferring another misbegotten war to Afgan - its sure to be another quagmire.

We missed our big chance on going in there and cleaning out the bad guys. We simply cannot sustain increased war. We need to divert money to our infrastructure and security HERE, not go on a revenge mission. Its not winnable over there, even the Russians, who are not known for their sensitive wartime activities, gave up.

We should bring ALL the troops home.

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

jcorrington,

Thank you. I agree that we missed a "big" chance in Afghanistan. If we would have kept the "war on terror" to the actual "war on terror" (not Iraq) .... imagine where we would be now. I'm very pleased to receive your comment.

V/R
John

[Krikkit]

Hey John, why not as al-Sadr if HE thinks the currently less violent Iraq is due to the surge?

Of course, al-Sadr publicly stated that if the US troops are NOT going to be withdrawn, he will lift his cease fire and bathe Iraq in a bloodbath like it hasn't seen before, this time targeting US troops specifically. He's even reorganized the Mahdi army specifically for that task.

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

Krikkit,

You're absolutely correct. Hence me highlighting a portion in my piece.

V/R
John

[unionave]

I heard new oil fields were found in Iran . The oil pipe line through Afghanistan which we are paying for is probably finished by now so they will want troops to protect that pipe line and the Iraq oil fields and lines . They are now drawing up plans to get their hands on the new Iranian oil . They also have some unfinished business with Mr Chavez in SA . Remember he has oil also . It is and always has been about the oil but very few writers will even go there .

[Sundialsvc4]

Apparently, these folks have never surfed to the Library of Congress web-site (http://thomas.loc.gov) and read about the "National Service Act of 2007."

Anytime you listen to any of the "so-called candidates" talk obliquely about "national service," you need to understand fully that every male OR female from age 18 to 42(!) could be conscripted at the will of El Presidente to do whatever El Presidente decided in His Imperial Majesty to have them do.

That's the trouble with the people who crave power: it never, ever stops. Not at any 'sensible place.' Not ever.

When you read that "the United States is spending billions of dollars on this war," you need to ask yourself the HARD question (as in "hard to face"): "in WHOSE pocket is 'all that money' GOING?"

(Hey, it's a dollar. Somebody's gotta be taking it home.)

Billions upon billions of dollars are being spent on materiel, mercenaries, and all those other delicious things... and that's just by THIS government. Opposing governments are buying those selfsame things also! And guess what: American (well, they call themselves "multinational") business interests are busy selling to BOTH SIDES.

Sorry to break the news, but "now you know..."

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

A hundred years from now, Senator McCain would still disagree.

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

ReasonIsMyReligion,

Beautifully stated. Thank you.

V/R
John

[4President]

Most Americans wouldn't mind claiming victory today (If Bush/McCain insist) and leaving tomorrow. This was never an American war. This is a corporate war fought by proxy with the American military at taxpayer expense. We were not asked to sacrifice. Bush didn't think we'd need to. He figured in and out. That is the extent of his incompetence - he risked it all.

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

4President,

Your analysis is very simple, yet !00% on target. Thank you.

V/R
John

[1IrishdeAztlan]

You're exactly right. Imagine how quickly we'd be out of Iraq if we raised taxes to pay for it now instead of leaving the bill for our grandchildren. The Republicans would be marching in the streets in protest.

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

1IrishdeAxtlan,

Yes indeed. Thank you !!!

V/R
John

[YesWeCanada]

"Thousands of insurgent fighters with American blood on their hands are now on our payroll as security guards and their desire to be nonsectarian is unproved." This is how Bush bought time in Iraq. Much like the stimulas checks bought him a bit of time at home.

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

YesWeCanada,

I'm not sure if the stimulus checks bought Bush anytime here -- maybe with some folks. Anyway, you get it. Thank you for your comment.

V/R
John

[deminmo]

Why worry! We have HR 393 for more troops and China, Japan
and Saudi Arabia for financing. There's the oil to protect. No sense
in leaving Iraq. Besides the Israeli's need the American bases to
launch their strikes in Iran.

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

deminmo,

That sounds quite ominous.

V/R
John

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

Pdubya,

Good to hear from you again. Thanks for the comment. Yes indeed , reality does bite.

V/R
John

[Rule Of Law]

With the recent comprehensive and compelling proof (largely ignored by the MSM) of how the Bush administration lied us into this war, the only question is, why are we still there at all?

Makes me think of a buddy of mine. Went out for what he thought was a few drinks at a bar with some friends. After a couple of beers and the crowd had thinned out, one of his friends pulled a gun and ordered the bartender to give him the cash. My buddy thought it must be a joke, until the bartender refused and was shot in the head for his trouble. One of the customers made a break for the door. One of his other friends pulled a gun and shot him as well.

You get the picture. My friend thought he was just going out for drinks, not robbery, but now he had choices that needed to be made, and in a hurry. And later he told me that grabbing a gun and helping shoot up the place was not on the list.

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

Rule Of Law,

I think we should have left Iraq yesterday. Sadly, it doesn't make it so. Good to hear from you again.

V/R
John

[Rule Of Law]

John, you haven't written in a while, so I want to take this moment to remind you and every other real patriot that when Bushco and the Banks that are driving this war, the lovely debt it creates for them to get wealthy on, and the destruction of the middle class and our economy, decide the time has come to put the military in the streets, that every person who wears a uniform remembers the dishonorable way in which these criminals treated them and comes to the defense of the Constitution and the People.

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

Oh ROL, don't leave us hanging...

What then?

[Rule Of Law]

Reason, you got me laughing so hard I couldn't type for a minute.

Well, he said it came down to 3 choices: just letting it go down without risking his own skin, like most red-staters would; joining in with them, which he saw as a "surge" kind of move--one more than probably ending in disaster; or, doing the smart thing and getting the hell out of Dodge with minimal loss of life and limb, honor intact.

Good thing he chose number 3. Just outside the door was a group of very angry and armed up regulars who had heard the shooting and were more than happy to go in and set things to rights!

[minnehot]

Oh my, you better get your column to those right wing folks over at the Washington Post before its too late!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/15/AR2008071502531.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks for sending.

V/R
John

[itmaybetoolate]

John,

An excellent analysis! One of the best I have read. It is evenhanded and fair and pretty much captures the complexities of the situation without overwhelming the reader.

My favorite parts of the piece: "With an impotent Congress unwilling to check a stubborn President determined to inflict more damage through his own incompetence" and "Instead the President calls on them to enlist in the Army or Marine Corps. If they are too old, their kids are called upon to serve. They will support the government raising taxes and will buy war bonds to pay for the war they so ardently support."

This is going to be sent to my friends and family. I may even forward it to Sen. Obama.

Well done!

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

itmaybetoolate,

Thank you kindly for your supportive comment. I'm very pleased to hear from you again and that you enjoyed the post.

V/R
John

[itmaybetoolate]

Forwarded to Senator Obama at 5:58 PM, 7-16-08.

[LouisPWu]

The crucial elements are 1) getting our troops out of Iraq 2) giving our military (Army and Marines, particularly) time to 'heal' from their endless ordeal 3) stop the useless spending of lives and fortune on Iraq and 4) get our own house in order (dollar in free fall, banks closing, mortgage industry in free fall, balance of trade out of control). Lots of work to do, and we need to free up a bunch of hands from the war to fix things here at home.

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

LouisPWu,

I think we are all tracking and in agreement with you !! Thanks.

V/R
John

[LizM]

To the degree that the surge has "worked" to reduce violence, we have to ask...for what? ...to what end?

The question here is not whether the surge has worked to do what it was intended to do but what on God's green earth has the State Department and the monstrosity of an American embassy in Baghdad done, while the surge has been in place, to promote a sustainable political solution in Iraq. I would suggest they have done nothing and intend to do nothing. Given that, US troops AND CIVILIANS and all Iraqis who have risked their lives to assist coalition forces should have been completely withdrawn some time ago.

We also have to understand that, like it or not, a political solution in Iraq is not going to spontaneously materialize as the many Iraqi factions miraculously come together, in the midst of a civil war, to hammer out their political future. That will not happen without US leadership and a diplomatic surge that would bring the warring Iraqi factions to the negotiating table and that would involve the regional and major powers - all under the auspices of the UN - in an effort to support and secure whatever power-sharing arrangement the Iraqis are able to achieve. Absent an effort like this, there simply is no point to the surge, successful or not.

Time is definitely ticking and running out fast...especially for a political solution to the political problem that is Iraq.

[John Bruhns - Huffpost Blogger]

LizM,

I couldn't agree more. BTW-- your man Biden just may be the missing ingredient. And just maybe the next VP of the United States.

V/R
John

[LizM]

Hey, John

...from your fingertips to God's ears, so to speak. :)

And, here's hoping that Iraq and Afghanistan will be topping and dominating the agenda at the Dem convention next month!