Time Is Not On Our Side
It doesn't take the world's greatest prognosticator to predict that Iraq's future is indeed ominous. Most people with half a brain or a shred of common sense can view the current situation in Iraq and conclude that George W. Bush's dream for Iraq/transforming the Middle East will never be a reality.
Even before the invasion and occupation of Iraq the arrogance, incompetence, and the lies of the Bush administration put us and the Iraqi people on a path to failure.
General Eric Shinseki's educated military opinion regarding post-invasion operations in Iraq were totally dismissed by charlatans, such as Rummy and Wolfowitz.
At the time, our fearless Commander In Chief was still very impressionable and quite susceptible to peer pressure from neoconservative intellectual ideologues whom he empowered solely for the purpose of carrying out this tragic agenda that was in the works prior to Bush even taking office.
Now our military, their families, and the Iraqi people are left with the horrific aftermath.
It came as no surprise to me that violence skyrocketed in Iraq over the past few days. It was all just a tragic inevitability.
Even with surge forces implemented we are still nowhere near an adequate "peace-keeper to population" force ratio of 50:1 that would be necessary to pacify Iraq. In addition, counter-insurgency operations, such as the one we are pursuing, take a minimal of 10 years to successfully complete -- according to General Petraeus.
(This violence may very well be quelled within the next few days. But will it pop up again? Surely).
The desired force needed (according to my uneducated guess) would consist of approximately 1.5 million troops. 500,000 on the ground, 500,000 stateside ready to go, and 500,000 resting for the next deployment. We do not have these troop levels to deploy in such a rapid manner and that is why this surge is absolutely not sustainable.
I clearly understood this when I got my crash course in counter-insurgency 101 walking the streets of Baghdad from 2003-2004 with a bulls-eye on my back.
After an attack, the so-called "bad guys" always ran to a geographical area that we didn't have the manpower to cover. Instead, we would end up shaking down some poor Iraqi man in front of his family just because he lived in the same area where the attack took place.
Did it ever occur to the Bush administration that the Iraqi people won't ever buy what we are selling? I'm not talking about insurgents in onezees or twozees carrying an RPG or planting an IED -- that is all par for the course considering the environment in Iraq. Most telling for me are the tens of thousands of Shiites who are violently reacting to the Iraqi government's decision to take a somewhat moderate position in dealing with Shiite militias in the same manner that they deal with the Sunnis.
The Mahdi army is now battling Iraqi security forces, while our president continues to tell the American people that this is all the work of Al-Qaeda, not a civil war.
Come on -- if Muqtada al-Sadr got word that Bin Laden was in Iraq, chances are that he would have him killed in a heartbeat. In my mind, this backs up my point that this is not Al-Qaeda. Instead, it is the Iraqi people who have not, will not, and will never conform to the Bush administration's "grand plan" for Iraq that he hoped would have resulted in the United States dominating Mideast policy.
My guess is that Bush knows this quite well. However, he is just prolonging this charade long enough for him to leave office next year. Then when it blows up, he can blame it on the new administration.
Next week Congress will resume from their recess. Shortly afterward we will hear once again from General Petraeus. Then Congress will be tasked with approving the remainder of the FY 08 supplemental that would provide an additional $105 billion in funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
This is likely to be the final war funding showdown between President Bush and Congress.
What does that mean for the American people who have been fighting for years to bring an end to this needless war? It is our last real chance to lobby our members of Congress not to provide President Bush with any "blank check" funding under any circumstance. Please call your Representative's & Senator's offices, write to your local newspaper, organize a Town Hall meeting, or conduct a rally, vigil, etc -- all in an effort to let your member of Congress know that they still have a responsibility to deliver on the promise they made in 2006 to change course in Iraq. Furthermore, make sure they know that we the people are fully aware of their voting record in comparison to their campaign promises. Lastly, remind them that this November they are up for reelection, not George W. Bush.
If they won't deliver for us -- why should we deliver for them? I can't think of one logical reason.
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Dear John: When Sadr speaks of outlaws I need to study who that is. The factions that were in Basra fighting along with the Mahdi. And did I get it right that members of the Iraq govt army went over to their side. And when I seethe papers andthey speak of "outlaws and/ or thugs" are they speaking of the Mahdi militia or the same factions that Sadr is speaking of.
Thanks for replying. It is good to have someone coherent and well informed and willing to help sort in the best way possible what is real. The news is hard to trust generally and I do notthink I want to listen to too much on the radio. But I did hear some good stuff the other day. But the media is not talking much right now. I am wondering what is happening with Maliki and his Iraq army right now. And the Mahdi Militia as well.
John, education is key as you say to one of the posters below--our founders certainly believed that to be so. There is a little known document,
"The Crisis in Democracy" paper, written for the Trilateral Commission, 1975, New York University Press Michel Crozier, Samuel P. Huntington and Joji Watanuki.
In this paper the Commission lays the blame for the social awakening of the 60's at the feet of "too much education" and postulates that the best way to control a society is to "dumb it down," along with depressing wages, destroying unions, and limiting home ownership. Any of that sound familiar as we look around today?
What's happening to America, with this "war" and the economy has been planned for a very long time. I know not many want to deal with that as it sounds a bit melodramatic, but the "Crisis in Democracy" is a real paper by some very real people, that offers the same answers to what the Elites see as "problems" as what is actually occurring in our Country today. Not conspiracy, with a whhhoooo whhoooo, but more like "Prophecy," with an I told you so!
It is, and always has been about the money--follow the money and you find out how to not just end the war, but restore America.
Best, Rule
Hello John Bruhns. Just logged on. This a good place to learn something for me.
I wrote two comments yesterday elsewhere. One quote to a columnist Jeff Golden in the Daily Tidings in Ashland Oregon where I live. It was written yesterday a week after Mr. Obama came to Medford, Oregon. More or less about - listening is all good, then what? So I wrote back with a lot of enthusiasm regarding www.responsibleplan. com. I notice more Congress people are backing the plan each day. Last count:45.
How can I best help these candidates get elected?
Also, I wrote to Priceofoil.org last night:
How is`what is going on in Basra connected to the oil policy laws? I need to address this to Antonia Juhasz too and Steve Kretzmann, like you they will reply personally. It is such a help.
There is more.
I read how Sadr says the militias will not stop til the occupation stops interfering within Iraq. Infighting betwixt the Shiites and the Sunnis and other groups - I know these are not entirely religious skirmishes. Is it about the oil? Or are they provoked by the masterminds of the occupation? Or?
Will the people get along if the occupiers leave them work it out with the help of those with their best interests at heart? Why are Maliki and the Iraq Army in Basra? Who started it?
I like action. I need to look closely at that website. www.responsibleplan.com. Thanks for all you do. Mairlee
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mairlee,
I think that Basra's geographical location in Iraq plays a huge role -- it is far south along with the bulk of the oil fields. Again, my guess is that the Iraqis will never buy what we are selling. I'm afraid that the tragic inevitability is that we traded a sectarian dictator (Saddam) for a puppet government (Maliki). The current government in Iraq is on borrowed time, and I think what is likely to emerge is a either a lawless, stateless country in Iraq -- in comparison to Somolia, or a Shiite religious/totalitarian theocracy. The question is whether or not keeping our military there indefinitely will stop this from happening -- I highly doubt it and that is why I advocate bringing them home. Please read this:
http://www.philly.com/dailynews/opinion/20080306_Pull_the_plug_on_the_war.html Thanks for the comment. V/R John
"If they won't deliver for us -- why should we deliver for them? I can't think of one logical reason."
I don't understand the logics of American politicians neither. If I was a conspiracy theorist, I'd think that the Dems, either by funding the war in Congress, or by keeping the mean fight between their two candidates, were doing their best to be beaten, so as for the Reps to keep the WH, and take the blame for the next four years, with its disastrous war in Iraq, the not-so-rosy economy, and all the problems like healthcare, global warming, inflation, still pending to be solved.
Perhaps the Dems have realized that, if elected for the next presidency, the catastrophic consequences of Bush's eight years will fall on them. They might want to loose the next elections in the purpose to be even stronger in the following ones.
That's the only logic I can make out from their behavior.
Four thousand killed Americans, thirty thousand crippled Americans, bribed sunnis, fighting shias, millions refugees, thousands killed and maimed Iraqis, why the hell is Congress still giving money for this Bush's fiasco ? I'm usually a naive optimistic peace-and-love person, but there I can only see calculation, manipulation, and corruption. Perhaps that sums up nicely what politics is about. We might have to face the fact that we, honest people, will always be in the ranks of the demonstrators, protesting against all the wrongs of the deciding political liars.
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francoise,
It is great to hear from you again -- WOW, I love this comment:
"Four thousand killed Americans, thirty thousand crippled Americans, bribed sunnis, fighting shias, millions refugees, thousands killed and maimed Iraqis, why the hell is Congress still giving money for this Bush's fiasco ? I'm usually a naive optimistic peace-and-love person, but there I can only see calculation, manipulation, and corruption. Perhaps that sums up nicely what politics is about. We might have to face the fact that we, honest people, will always be in the ranks of the demonstrators, protesting against all the wrongs of the deciding political liars."
I wish I could have put it in words as wonderfully as you just did -- thank you for sharing this. By this comment I think you understand the logic of American politics perfectly. If only more Americans shared this sobering perspective. V/R John
Francoise is blushing ;-)
However, do not worry : you Americans don't have the monopoly of rotten politicians. Ours are no better !
John, thanks for writing, acting, being true to your beliefs. It's so easy to be discouraged and to become selfish ! And if many people have the ability to react, very few have the ability to lead and show the way. It's generous and brave from you to be one of the engines for change.
John, the war must end, yes, but until the US stops being the largest producer and exporter of weapons to every war lord, tyrant and dictator, and the profits made from death end as well, we will not see it happen. Too many people you would never suspect--like Dianne Feinstein, a democrat pretending to be a liberal--making money off this war through her husband's companies and her position on committees that vetted his, Richard Blums, businesses.
Now Bush is using the cover of the war to allow the Federal Reserve even more power over how business is done in America--"designate the Fed as the primary regulator for market stability, greatly expanding its ability to examine any financial institution deemed to pose a risk to the stability of the system." These are the guys who under Greenspan gave us this nightmare economy, and Bush want to give them more power?
You end this war the way you end a cancer, you starve it to death by cutting off its blood supply! It's the only way when the people won't rise up. The blood for this war is Money, and the Fed arranges for war money through loans from China, Japan, and other Middle Eastern countries. Now Bush wants to give that same Fed more power...? War is way too profitable for too many people, like Feinstein, to give it up without a fight. Don't overlook the economic route. It may end up being our only option.
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Rule Of Law,
I love your observation here:
"You end this war the way you end a cancer, you starve it to death by cutting off its blood supply! It's the only way when the people won't rise up. The blood for this war is Money"
Good to hear from you again. V/R John
Mr. Bruhns, thank you for your post. For the record, I would like to state I am an Obama supporter and was against the war from the onset. However, I am a bit concerned about pulling out of Iraq, especially with regard to what may be in store once we do.
The Bush administration either underestimated or was completely willing to disregard the Iraqis' backlash to this war (and now occupation) of their country. It appears that if we ever pull out we are opening Iraq up to becoming another terrorist base from which Al-Qaeda and other anti-American terrorist groups can operate. I am 100% behind withdrawing troops immediately. However, we must ask ourselves if we are willing to subject the American people, here and abroad, to attacks by terrorists? Do you think this will open us up to another attack on American soil? Do you think this is potentially a price to pay for an "illegal" war we waged against Iraq (Saddam Hussein)? As a New Yorker who was on my way to work in Manhattan on September 11th, it I may be I am a more sensitive to this possibility.
Very well said.
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LuckyKay,
In my opinion, leaving over 150,000 troops in Iraq, stationary, and serving as a buffer between warring factions, indefinitely, being attacked by an enemy they can't see will not be instrumental in stopping terror cells worldwide who are plotting to attack us. Please read my latest oped in the Philadelphia Daily News and let me know your thoughts: http://www.philly.com/dailynews/opinion/20080306_Pull_the_plug_on_the_war.html Thanks for the comment. V/R John
W stands for Worst President Ever!
signed, Military Spouse.
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digusted48,
I agree - definitely the worst in my lifetime. V/R John
You and Soltz continues to miss the big picture. Please, from one servemember to another, read "America's Secret War," by Dr. George Friedman.
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Hi Mark,
First let me say that I have a lot of respect for you. I know you have sacrificed directly in NYC on 9/11, being in the WTC, then joining the Marine Corps directly afterward to fight for your country. I see you often on television debating people on my side of the argument. I'll look into the book. However, at this point it would take a lot to get me to change my views -- they are pretty much etched in stone, as are your views. I just hope that as veterans of this war, we can respectfully agree to disagree. You know I will continue to advocate for an end to the war in Iraq, and I know that you will advocate for it to continue -- you have your reasons, as I have mine. We just view things differently. Again, you have all my respect. V/R John
John,
Your lack of cynicism is impressive, especially with respect to the power that the public can have if we exercise our ability to contact media outlets, our representatives in congress, and each other. Between Obama's message of hope and your insistence on the efficacy of democratic channels, I'm moving away from my cynical stance in spite of myself.
A problem for me, however: I'm in Connecticut, home of Lieberman. Something tells me that voices in my state aren't going to go as far as those in other blue states.
One last note: you mention the fact that Iraq is becoming a tragedy. As I teach ancient philosophy and classics here, I'm reminded of the parallel between the Bush administration and Oedipus - Oedipus who believed that he could steer his own destiny because of his cleverness, but who was undone precisely because destiny was steering him.
Thanks again for another encouraging and insightful piece.
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juevosrancheros,
I appreciate the feedback -- kindest regards, John
I hope to heaven that when the shit hits the fan, NOT ONE American will accept that it is the new administrations fault, regardless who is in the white house.
IT is time to tell bush and asshole friends to FUCK OFF. Send the war criminals to Den Haag for trial in the world court.
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paixa3,
I share your view here:
"I hope to heaven that when the shit hits the fan, NOT ONE American will accept that it is the new administrations fault, regardless who is in the white house."
Thanks for the comment. V/R John
Paixa... stop holding back, dude, let it out! But seriously, well said. Of course you know we'll get the hard sell all the way to place the blame on the inheritor of this unholy mess and it, unhappily, will probably work on enough people that the machine will continue to grind away with business as usual.
Time is not on out side but I'm having my 19th nervous breakdown. Cheney says, "Pleased to meet you, hope you caught my name". This war will not fade away and we can't get no satisfaction. Until the '08 elections I'm just waiting on a friend. Okay, I'm running out of relevant Rolling Stones quotes.... help, anyone?
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indypete,
It is just so frustrating. V/R John
Ronald Reagan's one political act of genius was to misdirect his detractors into conflating a studied confusion with innocence, when neither were on view. By appearing affable yet slightly befuddled, he dodged all consequences of his Iran-Contra doings.
GW Bush has likewise done many terrible things behind a screen of incompetence and arrogance, but it's just a screen, and we should not allow ourselves to be contented by studying whatever's on view out front. The largest cash transfer from working people to plutocrats has gone on during his presidency, of both public and private monies,and is going on now, as is an intractable elective war and the collapse of the international financial system and our standing internationally. Somebody's getting very, very, very rich.
This may appear to be an unintended outgrowth of Bush's incompetence, but it's the actual pupose of his regime from day one: bankrupt the treasury by siphoning its money to private interests, so that the federal government will be forever paying increasing service costs on debt, unable to expand any social services or the size of the government itself.
In NYC in the '80's, many a storefront in poor neighborhoods had a but few dusty cans in the window and a curtain behind the cans. If you looked at these as the store operators wished, you saw a failing grocery. If you looked behind the curtain, there was a crack business taking in thousands.
WOW! This is right on. I've been thinking pretty much the same thing. This war feeds the forces that are destroying our economy. I'm not thinking so much about the money the Bushs are stealing as I am about their seeming desire for an excuse to declare a national emergency. This would allow them to take over the government in very much the same way other dictators have.
I've been concerned that our government just might not last until January 20, 2009.
"....our last real chance to lobby our members of Congress not to provide President Bush with any 'blank check' funding under any circumstance."
Nothing was ever accomplished by making pessimism your first foot forward. Still, I know the funding will go on -- not to win the war or even to effectively keep the peace, not to equip our troops with the best that money can buy nor even to implement plans to effectively remove our troops from harms way. The funding will go on because Congress cannot be honest about what the funding is for -- to enrich contractors like Blackwater and the 19-year-old entrepreneur in FL who got multi-million dollar contracts from DC to sell corroded bullets (made in China) to Afghanistan. Congress cannot even say it will not fund greed and waste.
It's hard not to be pessimistic when, on the eve of the 4000th death in Iraq, only 28% of Americans were aware of the death toll... when McCain leads both Democratic candidates in the polls... when 19% of Obama supporters say they will vote for McCain if Clinton wins the nomination and 28% of Clinton supporters would abandon Obama for McCain.
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Lemeritus,
You wrote:
"It's hard not to be pessimistic when, on the eve of the 4000th death in Iraq, only 28% of Americans were aware of the death toll... when McCain leads both Democratic candidates in the polls... when 19% of Obama supporters say they will vote for McCain if Clinton wins the nomination and 28% of Clinton supporters would abandon Obama for McCain."
I agree my friend, but we just have to keep on keeping on -- V/R John
That we do, and that we will. As always, John, thank you.
We as a nation have lost this so call war. It is very sad for me to see yet another Texas President pick a fight he can not finish and that drags the whole nation down. Bad Intelligence is just a euphemism for stupidity. I as one American who does not expect others to fight my fights and pay my taxes would
like to say to the Repugs, "you voted for Mr. Stupid." Now after losing two wars, Viet Nam and Iraq I hope in the long run we as Americans have learned two lessons: One that might is not right and never ever elect a Texan President again.
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Fastcad,
I think Bush is an import to Texas -- I don't believe he was born there ... am I wrong? I think he likes to live there to pretend he is a cowboy or Texas Ranger or something ridiculous along those lines. I said that sarcastically -- but, in my opinion, the whole Texan thing for him is just part of his act. V/R John
Yes, Bush was not born in Texas, New England I think. His Father went to Texas to get rich and then discovered Politics is where you find the big money. No one can choose where they are born, but the people of Texas choose him twice for Governor and twice for President. So technically he is a import. But I was just thinking is what most people in Texas believe or is this some kind of an Alamo mentality or something. What ever, he represents Texas.
Bush was born (hatched?) in New Haven, Connecticut, on July 6, 1946.
A troubled currency and financial system and large budget and trade deficits do not present an attractive face to creditors. Yet Washington in its hubris seems to believe that the US can forever rely on the Chinese, Japanese and Saudis to finance America's life beyond its means. Imagine the shock when the day arrives that a US Treasury auction of new debt instruments is not fully subscribed.
The US has squandered $500 billion dollars on a war that serves no American purpose. Moreover, the $500 billion is only the out-of-pocket costs. It does not include the replacement cost of the destroyed equipment, the future costs of care for veterans, the cost of the interests on the loans that have financed the war, or the lost US GDP from diverting scarce resources to war. Experts who are not part of the government's spin machine estimate the cost of the Iraq war to be as much as $3 trillion.
The Republican candidate for President said he would be content to continue the war for 100 years. With what resources? When America's creditors consider our behavior they see total fiscal irresponsibility. They see a deluded country that acts as if it is a privilege for foreigners to lend to it, and a deluded country that believes that foreigners will continue to accumulate US debt until the end of time.
Just don't spend that money on anything helpful or domestic and the 'conservatives' won't say one word about it
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PiratePrentiss,
Exactly.
V/R John
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bob209,
I very much appreciated your comment, especially this part:
"The US has squandered $500 billion dollars on a war that serves no American purpose. Moreover, the $500 billion is only the out-of-pocket costs. It does not include the replacement cost of the destroyed equipment, the future costs of care for veterans, the cost of the interests on the loans that have financed the war, or the lost US GDP from diverting scarce resources to war. Experts who are not part of the government's spin machine estimate the cost of the Iraq war to be as much as $3 trillion."
Sincerely -- thank you my friend for factoring this into the discussion. V/R John
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