ALASKA ELECTION UPDATE: The Envelopes Please

It doesn't bother me to have fundamental differences with people. If it did, I'd never get out of bed. The person I most respected growing up, my Pop, was and is a conservative ideologue. I'm crazy about him. Disagreeing with facts is fair and healthy. Arguing from a place lacking intellectual curiosity is quite another as nothing is learned nor gained.
Since my first post questioning the voter turnout and other anomalies in Alaska's election, I've been accused of all sorts of things. I have been misquoted in the Anchorage Daily News. They claimed I wrote the election was "stolen." I wrote "Stolen Election in Alaska?" It wasn't the word, it was the punctuation.

But there is good reason to be concerned. A lawsuit filed in 2006 in State Superior Court to release the Diebold GEMS Software from 2004 revealed the database had been tampered with. Unfortunately, the user log-in and password were set to the default settings so it was impossible to tell who had edited the software numerous times post election, since all entries were made by "administrator" with password: "password". So it's not too outrageous for anybody to believe it's important, this time, to pay very close attention to the results of last Tuesday's election...

Since Election Day, the votes have been rolling in to the Division of Elections. They are now reporting 90,635 ballots remaining to be counted; nearly 29 percent(28.8%) of the total vote has not been counted yet.

Though closer to the total votes cast in 2004, the turnout percentage is still down from that election in which neither our own Governor nor Barack Obama were running. The total ballot count is at 314,268, with turnout at 63.3% (registered voters = 495,731). Turnout in the 2004 General was 66.6%, with 314,502 voting and 472,160 registered voters statewide. If 100% of the requested mail-out ballots are returned in time to be counted, we can expect about 3600 more.

I'm proud of the Alaskan mail-in voters. They really have shown up this year. All the envelope licking and stamping, well, it's impressive. So far, 92% of those who requested absentee ballots have returned them! Fantastic! You betcha. I wonder what part of GOTV worked so well since the 2004 was dismal. A total of 58,559 absentee ballots were mailed to voters and 32,075 were returned by the Election Day deadline in 2004. That was a pitiful 54%. I'm hard pressed to figure out why there is a 38 point difference in voter participation in the absentee ballots while the poll voter turnout was down..

Monday's newly posted ballots [PDF] include about 4,000 additional "Questioned" [elsewhere known as "provisional"] ballots and about 5,600 additional Absentee ballots. Wednesday, the Division of Elections (DOE) plan to count the majority of early vote and absentee ballots verified by Election Day. The DOE will count the remaining ballots on Friday. However, there could be enough ballots left after Wednesday's count for any of the races to still go either way. A public records request has been submitted to the Division of Elections, as per many of the recommendations laid out by Brad Friedman, for a number of important pieces of information that are required so that citizens of all parties may try to ensure an accurate reconciliation of all votes cast.

All camps; Ted Stevens and Mark Begich in the Senate race, and Don Young and Ethan Berkowitz in one of the House races with the strangest results, are still at work; crunching numbers and refreshing the Alaska Elections website as often as possible. It feels like Bush-Gore 2000 around here.

On the state-side races, leadership positions are being divvied up and plans going forward for the session in January. But polling showed huge differences in at least 5 of the state House races, and with 29% of the votes still UNCOUNTED, it seems prudent to give it some time.

Between the hanging chads in Florida, long lines and lost voters in Ohio, the tampered software in Alaska, and the increasingly long list of all-too-regular election "irregularities," it's time for a change. It's time for a new cabinet level position. Why shouldn't we consider a Secretary of Election Integrity? Who would appoint? Who could it be? We must find a way to insure the basic right of Americans to vote, to have that vote counted and to have it counted accurately and transparently, so that everyone - all political parties and citizens alike -- can know that it actually meant something.

Comments

[cmilburn]

As someone who has relatives in Kotzebue, I like to think I get the straight facts from them, but they've been in the dark, too. Keep the light shining on them, Shannyn. Do not let up. P.S. You are hot (sorry, had to say it).

[darthdarcy]

Alaska is in the running with Texas as the most corrupt state in America, of course Louisiana is always in the running...!

[jqcitizen]

Darth-
"Alaska in the running with Texas as most corrupt state in America"

You ain't wrong and it only took 50 years (as a state) to achieve that 'Proud' record.

Took Texas a little longer than that. -Makes Alaska the winner! Right?

Seriously, the entire voting system nationwide needs help. Putting a few corrupt politicians in prison hardly keeps the process honest. There has to be a way from ever letting these crooks on the ballot in the first place.

[SUIGENEROUSLA]

You are too funny Shannyn. I wouldn't have thought that a well reasoned elections piece would make me chuckle..............keep it up -- Time or Newsweek should hire you -- you need more readers. Write a book.

[TerryDArc]

Three things are troubling me:
1. As Shannyn reports turnout was low in spite of the incentive of the 1st black president and an Alaskan VP candidate.

2. The flow of information has completely stopped. GEMS reports nothing since 11/5, the day after the election. This slowness is very troubling - what is being hidden or why is the process so slow?

3. As if the above two were not bad enough, the polls across the lower 48 and Hawaii were absolutely bang on in accuracy - even the worst polls were only 4-5% off and the more reasonable like CNN, Rasmussen, and Pew were within 1%! How the hell did Alaska get off by 12% shift republican? In 3 races?! Senate, President, Congress - see 538.com for more details.

This is all a bit much for me to believe and if someone were up there stealing an election, it would look exactly like what we see now - ie. nothing until the fait accompli is announced and Young and Stevens slink away with a duplicitous victory.

Here are the diffs between the final polls and the actual results on election day for presidential election (except Alaska's 12 point repub shift).

CNN: 0.5
Ipsos: 0.5
Pew: 0.7
Rasmussen: 0.7
ARG: 1.5
Research 2000: 1.7
ABC: 2.5
IBD: 2.7
Hotline: 3.7
Gallup: 4.5
Zogby: 4.5
Battleground: 5.7
CBS: 5.7
Fox: 5.7

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

1. I think the low turnout is two parts still-uncounted votes (as high as 90K, by some estimates), and one part reduced turnout among traditional repubs disenchanted with their candidates (Stevens got 79% of the vote in 2002; some of them may have stayed home).

2. I think the delay relates directly to the care being taken to eliminate double-counting between the absentee and early-voting ballots - and indirectly to what appears to be a data collection process of uneven efficiency (small rural population spread over huge area).

3. I think the polling error is two parts unrepresentative polling data (small, skewed samples), and one part unrepresentative actual result (I predict that, barring election fraud, Begich overtakes Stevens to win by 2%, once the early vote is fully counted).

[RTIII]

You should read this excellent analysis which supports some and rejects others of your assertions with good, clear thinking and good data sources:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/uncounted-votes-may-push-begich-past.html
.

[RobinSeattle]

You know what amazes me? That the leftwing side of the blogosphere has given Sarah Palin, who is the governor of Alaska, and that state's SoS a complete pass on the farce that has been the vote counting there. What's up with that?

As a supposed executive, Palin should have been able to help create a problem free system for accounting for all ballots, but that hasn't been the case. I want to know if she has any direct culpability in this and what the nature of any conversations she has had about elections the state were.

At the very least, I would accuse her of being apathetic to imbuing Alaska elections with something resembling integrity and then link it to the general GOP yen for voter suppression. So get on the stick HuffPo and bloggers!

[krocklin]

The Media is not doing a good job on this story.
No one has reported WHEN will these votes be counted. Or when the Franken vote count will be final.

It has been a week and STILL the figure of uncounted votes is 91,000, same as it was last week?

And is anyone going to look into the anomalies in terms of turnout and the discrepancies vs. the polls?

If so, WHO?

[RTIII]

I agree; I have the same frustration with lack of quality reporting on this point.

I'm wondering if I have to go to primary sources MYSELF?! Just got the Alaska Elections web site link (from the above article, so THIS reporter is helping!...
.

[RTIII]

I agree; I have the same frustration with lack of quality reporting on this point. At least THIS reporter is bringing it up.

I'm wondering if I have to go to primary sources MYSELF?! Just got the Alaska Elections web site link from THIS reporter. Sometimes, you've got to do the research on your own...
.

[df26]

If you would like to be part of a petition effort to help Standardize all U.S.Elections. I have created a website and a online petition to help jump start this process. After reading the comments here I think this is an appropriate effort. The actual petition is listed below. I tried to make it as simple as possible.
http://www.gopetition.com/online/23256.html

I also created a social network and a website where those interested can comment, blog, post photos join groups or build networks that tie into networks whatever etc. I am the first signee
the website is http://onevoteamerica.ning.com/ I hope this can be a successful non party effort to change our current process. Which is in truly in bad shape.
best regards

[DarthVector]

good work, let's get on board...

[newpotusplease]

it is sad that MSM isn't reporting this as clearly as you are.

I hope you are not a lone voice up there- I hope others in Alaska care about counting the votes accurately.

[grateful4thedead]

Ron Brownstein from The National Journal commented on Hardball this evening about the 90,000 votes that have yet to be counted, in a less than flattering fashion. I was pleased to hear this as I have been wondering about what is going on in Alaska.

Don't you guys have a Governor that can step in and lead effectively on this matter?

[pr0metheus]

There should be a non-partisan (Judiciary Branch?) federal office of elections that handles all of this properly.

[DarthVector]

PRECISELY.

As I keep saying...

http://www.aec.gov.au/

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/

http://www.elections.org.nz/

[Isolated in N GA]

I agree- it has to reside within the federal judiciary. And it needs to be created. Now. And the Diebold shenanigans need to see some serious daylight, and to be documented.

[df26]

What does it take to start a simple petition calling on the The President The Senate and The Congress
to Standardize all Elections with easy simple to understand Language. Not favorable to either Party. Immediately or as soon as it is possible to ramp up and implement. If not this year 2009 by 2010 for sure. Petition could begin online and go viral with Local Volunteers Nationwide

[USA1776]

Hey Shannyn:

Thanks for the update. I saw your Governor last night on Greta, driveling and whining about the campaign. She thinks that women did not embrace her because of some sort of a abortion stance litmus test. Which may be true I really don't think it has dawned on Sarah Palin yet that she went around the Lower 48 acting like a rabid dog and is a complete embarrassment.

Then she continued to whine about how everyone was talking about her clothes but now she is the one that can't let it go. $150,000 K plus in designer clothes is bad no matter how you slice it. The women just doesn't know when to shut up. I was cracking up last night on my sofa because after two plus months, I have yet to hear something constructive come out of her mouth much less a complete sentence.

I feel bad for you guys up there, at least I cut shut off the TV to avoid the endless dependant clauses, you have two more years of her as Governor. That has to suck! Let us know when you need help defeating her.

And yeah, something is fishy with those election numbers!

Be well, keep warm!

[RealistDem]

Its a week later, just how long does it take Alaka to count votes?

[pdrew]

good for you. keep up the reporting. we sure don't have to worry about the msm covering this.

this is so obvious by the upside numbers that ray charles could see this.

[mlaiuppa]

Here's your answer:

First of all, it's WHO counts the votes.

And since, from what I'm reading, Alaskan Politics is rife with corruption, what makes you thing the Registrar's Office is any different?

Time to clean house. Good luck with that.