Another war is looming in the Middle East, say the pundits. It is hard to ignore the whispers -- now louder -- when they are regularly punctuated by hostile statements from various officials in the region, leading further credence to a possible conflagration.
The likely site of the newest regional battle is the Levant. Funnily enough, nobody can pinpoint exactly where, although it is clear that Israel will be involved. Which should tell us something right there.
Since the Jewish state's military attack on Lebanon in 2006, it has been itching for a "do-over." Why? Because for the first time in its history, Israel did not win a war. The month-long bombardment of Lebanon resulted in a stalemate -- an intolerable outcome by the standards of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
To add to the indignity, it was a mere few thousand men -- not even a national army -- that took the IDF by surprise.
The cornerstone of Israel's military strategy is deterrence -- whether though brandishing a nuclear arsenal to warn off threatening nation-states, or by Gaza-style intensive attacks that send a strong message to a weaker party. This is a highly militarized state that has lived under the legacy of conflict its entire existence. Loss -- or even perceived loss -- is not an option.
So instead of self-examination, Israel's conflicted, and increasingly right-wing political body unleashed a belligerent tone -- angry, defiant, threatening, unfocused like a petulant and wounded child. Diversionary tactics came into play to focus domestic and international attention elsewhere and fill the frustrating void -- Hamas in Gaza, the potential nuclear aspirations of Iran, Palestinian intransigence on peace talks, Hezbollah's weapons, Syria, Turkey, anti-Semitism, the Goldstone Report.
In recent weeks, Israeli officials have made inflammatory statements about conflicts on half a dozen fronts.
SYRIA:
"When there is another war, you will not just lose it, but you and your family will lose power," right-wing Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman challenged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Thursday, after Assad claimed that Israel is "driving the region towards war, not peace."
Lieberman went further and hit at the heart of any future Israeli-Syrian rapprochement: "We must bring Syria to realize that...it will have to give up on its ultimate demand for the Golan Heights." Israeli leaders have in the past accepted in principle that the Syrian Golan Heights, captured and occupied by Israel in 1967, would necessarily be part of any bilateral peace deal.
GAZA:
In January -- one year after Israel's Operation Cast Lead in Gaza that lead to the deaths of 1,400 Palestinians -- Major General Yom Tov Samia, former head of the IDF's Southern Command, told the Jerusalem Post: "We are before another round in Gaza... another war with Hamas is inevitable." And Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Gaza's leaders to "watch their step, and not to cry crocodile tears if they force [us] to take action."
The hue and cry about Hamas' rockets hitting Israeli towns was Tel Aviv and Washington's driving narrative in defense of Israel's military actions in Gaza. Still is. But just this week, the Jewish State announced that a new $200 million rocket defense system called the "Iron Dome" will not be deployed against Gaza as promised. Too expensive for Gaza, says the military, explaining that it will be deployed elsewhere where there is more of an "imminent" threat.
And this comes after months of Israeli insistence that Hamas has significantly boosted its military capabilities and has obtained long-range rockets, mostly from Iran. So which is it -- either they do or don't have weapons, either they do or don't pose a threat?
LEBANON:
No two other parties have been more relentlessly subjected to Israeli threats than Iran and Hezbollah. Last summer, after it was clear that the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah would likely participate at the cabinet level in any unity government formed following Lebanon's June elections, Israeli leaders fell over themselves in their rush to issue warnings. Netanyahu, Barak and Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon all threatened that any border attacks would be blamed on the Lebanese central government -- with repercussions.
Just last month, Israeli Minister Yossi Peled opined, "Without a doubt we are heading for another round (of battle) in the North. No one knows when, but it's clear that it will happen."
And so both Hezbollah and Israel have moved weapons systems closer to their mutual borders.
IRAN:
Iran, in turn, has been the recipient of non-stop bombing threats from Israel over its civilian nuclear program, which the Jewish State claims is really a clandestine plan to build nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Never mind that some two dozen IAEA reports over six years show no diversion of materials to weaponization. Or that Israeli military intelligence has been extending the date for a finished Iranian nuclear warhead since the 1990s. Last June, Mossad Chief Meir Dagan declared the new date for the first Iranian nuke would be in 2014. But Israel's war drums have kept beating as though these weapons were already sitting on launch pads, ready to go.
TURKEY:
Relatively new on the scene in the game of belligerent words is Turkey. A rare Israeli ally in the Middle East both in political and military terms, Turkey has drawn away from the alliance since Israel's widely-criticized Gaza attacks last year, when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan lashed out at the particularly brutal IDF campaign.
Things have gone from bad to worse since, culminating a month ago in the now-infamous Ayalon row when the Israeli deputy foreign minister publicly and deliberately humiliated Turkey's ambassador in front of cameras. Israel has called Turkey anti-Semitic and very recently slammed the Turkish prime minister again when he drew attention to the continuing Israeli blockade of Gaza and its daily violations of Lebanese airspace.
Some Israeli critics suggest that the destabilizing escalation in rhetoric may not just be as a result of Israel's psychological loss in 2006, but more recently, because of an increased paranoia about international isolation -- the result of war crimes allegations documented against Israel in the UN's Goldstone Report about the Gaza war, and the country's ongoing occupation of Palestinian lands.
In a stunning attack on his government two weeks ago, Israeli writer Gideon Levy wrote a commentary piece in Haaretz in which he takes to task their "cynical" use of Holocaust Remembrance Day to propagandize toward political ends:
"An Israeli public relations drive like this hasn't been seen for ages. The timing of the unusual effort - never have so many ministers deployed across the globe - is not coincidental: When the world is talking Goldstone, we talk Holocaust, as if out to blur the impression. When the world talks occupation, we'll talk Iran as if we wanted them to forget."
But the escalation of rhetoric from Israel's right-wing government is not being viewed as simple political posturing -- more, like a promise of battle. As concerned as the Jewish State may be about conflict on its borders, its neighbors -- having been on the receiving end of superior Israeli weapons, and having suffered far larger numbers of civilian casualties -- are taking these words very seriously.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, at a joint press conference with Spain's Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos on Thursday pointed to this verbal escalation of hostilities by calling on Israel to "desist from making threats against Gaza, southern Lebanon, Iran and now Syria."
Because rhetoric after all creates a perception. And perception is 100% of politics -- not to be played with when standing on a tinderbox. The Levant has always been rife with small-scale border skirmishes -- that is the way of an area re-mapped by foreigners, with unnatural, artificial borders. But it is only Israel that has, since 1973, launched full-on military battles from these skirmishes. And without a doubt it is gearing up for a fight. Where, is anyone's guess.
Follow Sharmine Narwani on Twitter: www.twitter.com/snarwani
I read Fisk's latest. I guess the Israelis are going to be taken over by Hezballah, not Palestine. BTW as I recall, the last time Egypt tried to take over what was then part of Israel, the Israelis simply moved on Cairo. Too, Israel is not New York City or Washington DC -- many have guns. What makes you think Hezballah could successfully hold the territory even if it managed to cross the border?
I say, "Go Go gadget liberals!"
Just remember who you are throwing your support to. This is not a side issue. This is THE issue with liberals in the US and Europe. You don't care about the issues. You are simply looking for someone to hate, and Israel fits the bill. I, for one, love the US and am happy to live in a place where you-all can use Google to e-mail your friends about the latest hate story. Try doing that in Iran.
I think that is the point. A war of words is just that until it becomes a real war. Governments can posture all they want by flinging rhetoric at each other, but if they do not have a history of attacking with their armies or airforces, then everyone can chill, knowing a military escalation is not likely to happen.
In this case, nobody - certainly not us here in the US - can chill, because Israel has often taken rhetoric and escalated it into largescale armed conflict - as in Lebanon and Gaza.
And this guy is used as a reference by people in discusions on the Mideast and Israel??
What an agenda!
No wonder he is cited by the gang of usual suspects on these forums.....he certainly is ready to support a certain side. However, his credibility is highly suspect.
But, that's just my opinion.
-Fisk holds more British and International Journalism awards than any other foreign correspondent.
-The New York Times once described Robert Fisk as "probably the most famous foreign correspondent in Britain."[
-In 1991, Fisk won a Jacob's Award for his RTÉ Radio coverage of the first Gulf War.[24] He received Amnesty International UK Press Awards in 1998 for his reports from Algeria and again in 2000 for his articles on the NATO air campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999. In 1999 Fisk won the Orwell Prize for journalism.[25] He received the British Press Awards' International Journalist of the Year seven times, and twice won its "Reporter of the Year" award.[26] In 2001, he was awarded the David Watt Prize for "outstanding contributions towards the clarification of political issues and the promotion of their greater understanding" for his investigation into the Armenian Genocide by the Turks in 1915.[27] In 2002 he was the fourth recipient of the Martha Gellhorn Prize for Journalism. More recently, Fisk was awarded the 2006 Lannan Cultural Freedom Prize
Fisk is openly critical of Israeli and US policies in the Middle East. But he is frequently critical of Arab regimes too. I wonder if the latter reason is why you slam him.
He defends Geert Wilders, oh well...figures.
Same ol' double standard. Please don't preach to us thanks.
Imagine! The freedom to say what you want when you want, to speak the TRUTH, without fear of reprisals.
Not exactly on the 7th century ideology's agenda, I know.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-the-treelined-bunkers-that-could-change-the-face-of-the-middle-east-1874228.html
Israel has also threatened the people of Gaza with another attack, which is nothing short of a terror tactic since the people there can not escape or do anything to protect themselves.
this is unhinged and irresponsible porpaganda.
At no point in time has Israeli government " threatened people of Gaza with an attack."
In order to avoid having to talk about Hamas and their brand of Anti-Western religious extremism, Mr,. Fisk and the like deliberately misquote and misrepresent Israeli position..
They have been attacked constantly, do you not have any kindness in you? Oh, you think Israel talking about defending itself from right-wing religious fanatics is wrong. What do you think about the Saudis flying into Yemen, killing thousands, uprooting hundreds of thousands of people. Is that at all on your radar? Or, do you only pay attention to the Jews and what they do?
Ayaan Hirsi Ali
Little bit?
Where is the concern for refuges, supporters of ( some) Palestinian claim to?
For shame.
It is the very same that perpetrated most of Palestinian Arab misfortunes.
From turning down of U.N. partition and Camp David, to supporting Sadam Hussein against Kuwait; Soviet Union against U.S.; Iranian Ayatollahs and Bin Laden against the West ; to voting in Hamas.....
the list is long and ignominious..
Here is my proposal:
An International commission to address the claims of refugees created in the Middle East between 1947-2010. ALL refugees.
Framework: every refugee, Jewish, Muslim or Christian, Bahia, still alive today must receive an apology form the state from which they have escaped, be given the right to reclaim citizenship, land, money and businesses which they have lost.
N
ow That would be imminently fair.
The countries ( entities) which would be subject to ruling of this commission would be: Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan Egypt,,Algiers, Tunisia, Palestinian Authority, Hamas; Morocco, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait.
There are many comments here very concerned about truth, fairness and justice for the refugees in the Middel East.
This would be an opportunity to adress the claims of ALL refugees.
I am expecting a wave of " Yeahs" on this thread.
I traveled from occupied east Jerusalem to Ben Gurion Airport on a Sunday night, for my 7th departure from Israel Palestine since June of 2004.
I cleared SECURITY at 11:25; fifteen minutes before the doors were locked, but due to a blown generator in one of the engines we waited on the run way until 4 AM before repair and take off.
But, I was still smiling as I approached the first SECURITY agent in the queue who smiled back at me and then asked, "What was your purpose in Israel?"
"To get to Gaza, but I only made it as far as the Erez Checkpoint. For eight days I was embedded with CODE PINK activists who had been invited by the UN to see the facts on the ground and meet the people who try to have a life there. A CODE PINK contingent got through from Egypt and built three playgrounds in Gaza. Did you know that over half of the 1.5 million open air prisoners in Gaza, are kids younger than sixteen years old? Did you know that?"
He shook his head negative and asked, "Do you have your Press Card?"
I laughed, and replied, "I am not card carrying press! I am a member of the New Fourth Estate...
The rest of "SECURITY and Loose Canons" @
http://www.wearewideawake.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1317&Itemid=221
Israeli human rights lawyers, Michael Sfard, commented that the senior commander's acknowledgment was "a smoking gun.”
That gun has been smoking since July 2009, when 54 testimonies from Israeli soldiers regarding their experiences during Operation Cast Lead were published by the Israeli human rights group, Breaking the Silence, exposed the gaps between the reports given by the army in January 2009 and “accepted practices; the destruction of hundreds of houses and mosques for no military purpose, the firing of phosphorous gas in the direction of populated areas, the killing of innocent victims with small arms, the destruction of private property, and most of all, a permissive atmosphere in the command structure that enabled soldiers to act without moral restrictions..."
Excerpted from "Smoking Guns and Bulls-eyes: Israel rewrote the rules of War for Gaza" @
http://www.wearewideawake.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1579&Itemid=230
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11787886&Itemid=105
http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2009/07/why-we-need-iran.html
As for Hezbollah and Hamas...this may not fit into YOUR narrative, but both groups participated in democratic elections - accepted as such by the international community. Hamas won its elections and was immediately subjected to a US, EU and Israeli economic and financial boycott - so much for our democratic values. Hezbollah narrowly lost their elections and have joined in a coalition government in Lebanon - and the entire system there is finally talking from one playbook. John Brennan, Obama's advisor on counterterrorism even pointed out that Hezbollah is participating in democracy which he applauded.
You may not like it, but these are the facts. Your sarcasm underlines your fear that the international community will cop on to the notion that those nations and groups which Israel calls "terrorists" ARE in fact on the forefront of representative government in the Middle East.
Wishing hard that your version of the world will magically override actual facts makes YOU unhinged. Get real.
'you shall not kill'
you shall not covet
you shall not steal
Israel is, admittedly, the strongest armed force in the area. Israel and its people are justifiably paranoid. Israel recognizes that it cannot take on the whole world; cannot take on the combined forces of the Arab League; cannot take on a single nuclear enemy; cannot absorb a first nuclear blow.
Israel will also not succumb, at least not without exacting a catastrophic price. The "Samson Option" is not a novel; it represents a state of mind.
It seems to me that it would be in the best interest of the world, and of all you clucking chickens, to find an honourable way for Israel's protagonists to meet the absolute, non-negotiable, bottom-line requirement whereby a Jewish majority state is accorded its historic right to exist, in peace and security, in a small part of its ancestral homeland, behind secure an recognized borders. The rest of the infighting, military battles, backbiting, prisoners, settlements, missiles, a few thousand dead on both sides, propaganda, is all commentary. The immutable, unshakeable, unwavering stand of Israel that "Massada shall not fall again", and "Never Again" means exactly what they say it does - what you fear it does.
In the end, if there is an end, believe it!
There is no other way. Israel has no respect for International Law, has been systematically driving Palestinians from their land, has been inflicting oppression on these people for decades, depriving them of their human and legal rights while it steals their land...and worst of all, ISRAEL JUST DOESN'T CARE because it has been allowed to do this with total impunity and then has used its military arsenal to squash all resistance!
Sanctions are the only way!
I also believe that many Israeli's and their supporters fail to understand the meaning of the term "Never Again". To me it means that never again should any people suffer like Jews, Gypsies and others did during the Holocaust. Though Israeli treatment of Palestinians has not risen to the level of the Holocaust, the treatment is pretty terrible and is destroying the moral legacy of the Holocaust.
You wrote:
"Since the Jewish state's military attack on Lebanon in 2006, it has been itching for a "do-over." Why? Because for the first time in its history, Israel did not win a war. The month-long bombardment of Lebanon resulted in a stalemate -- an intolerable outcome by the standards of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)."
In fact, Israel did not win the Yom Kippur War in 1973. It was a devastating blow to the morale of the entire country, which has shaped its outlook until the present day.
So your statement that Israel has never lost a war before, and therefore can't handle the idea of losing, is not substantiated by historic fact.
-Ilana
A quote from the authror, about leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah supporter:" I found them both to be very reasonable, and their language quite reasoned.." that all one needs to know...
Take you own abuses and blame them on the 'enemy'.
Can't you come up with something a little more creative?
A big part of our problem is that our information gets filtered through mainstream reporters who care more about maintaining good relations with their government sources than reporting impartially on critical events and personalities.