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Shawn Lawrence Otto

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New Poll: Even Religious Voters Overwhelmingly Want Candidates to Debate Science

Posted: 04/04/2012 11:02 am

Science and Politics
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Houston, we have a problem

"Whenever the people are well informed," Thomas Jefferson wrote, "they can be trusted with their own government." But what happens now, two centuries later, when science has become so complex and so powerful that it influences every aspect of life, while most politicians' last science class was in high school? Are the people still well-enough informed to be trusted with their own government?

This is the subject of my new book, Fool Me Twice. But it's also the subject of a larger conflict over the nature and role of government, and the role of science as the best basis for determining public policy that is fairest to all Americans.

Every major policy challenge the United States is facing today is either wholly or partly driven by science, and yet this year in particular we have seen every mainstream candidate for president adopt one or more positions that run contrary to the best available evidence science has to offer.

Political Science

This isn't just a Republican problem. The current president has also taken policy positions that run contrary to advice from scientists on bipartisan panels, such as his position restricting the over-the-counter sale of the emergency contraceptive known as Plan B.

Many of the campaign season's most memorable moments - from Michele Bachmann's campaign-ending assertion that HPV vaccine causes mental retardation, to Rick Perry's comparing himself to Galileo, to Mitt Romney' flip-flop on global warming, to Jon Huntsman's tweet heard round the world, to more by Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, all seem to be pivoting on science.

Why? The conventional political wisdom is that Evangelical voters and Tea Party libertarians, who form large portions of the American voting block and even larger portions of the new Republican base, are increasingly anti-science, in the words of Jon Huntsman. In other words, you can't run from anti-science and hope to get nominated or even elected president, as Huntsman himself seemed to demonstrate.

A Science Debate?

Democratic campaign operatives seem to agree with this view. Stunningly, in 2008 the candidates for president twice turned down a nationally televised science debate, but twice participated in nationally televised faith forums - one at Messiah College in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, between Clinton and Obama, and one at Saddleback Church in Lake Forest, California, between McCain and Obama.

At the time, campaign operatives told me that they thought science was a "niche debate," with few voters interested in it and too much to lose. I explained that we weren't interested in whether they could name the third digit of pi - we wanted to know where they stood on the big science issues that affect everyone's lives. Still they wouldn't do it. But when Obama and McCain did eventually answer our questions online, it made more than 850 million media impressions - hardly a niche topic. But they wouldn't do it on TV.

Even born agains prefer they debate science over faith and values

So this year I and my colleagues at ScienceDebate.org decided to test the prevailing political wisdom. We worked with our friends at Research!America and commissioned JZ Analytics, with Senior Analyst John Zogby, to do a national poll on American's attitudes about faith and science (PDF). The results were stunning.

It turns out that the presidential campaign staffers have it completely, one hundred and eighty degrees wrong when it comes to science - maybe because most of them skipped science classes in college and went into things like law and journalism.

Overwhelming majorities of American voters want the candidates to debate the big science issues facing the country. In fact, overwhelming majorities of religious voters want the candidates to debate these big science issues. For Pete's sake, even overwhelming majorities of born again religious voters want the candidates to do this, and rank it as even more important than their debating faith and values.

Huh?

How could this be? It's possible that many in journalism and the political class, who largely come out of the humanities and ducked college science classes, believe Ameicans aren't interested in science because they themselves aren't interested. This is called the confirmation bias. But it's just simply wrong.

Or maybe it's because scientists have been silent in the public dialogue for so long - about two generations - that politicians wrongfully assume the public doesn't care about American science or engineering as public values or part of our national dialogue. Wrong again.

And not only wrong - but bad for America. To arrive at balanced public policy, America needs a plurality of voices in the public dialogue: foreign relations, business, religion - and science, and the overwhelming majority of likely voters want the candidates to engage on the topics of healthcare, climate change, energy, education, and innovation and the economy.

Sick and tired of authoritarian policies

They also say they want public policies to be based on the best available science, not the personal opinions or beliefs of elected officials. This indicates a certain willingness to tolerate views one might not fully personally agree with in order to achieve the fairest outcome for all Americans. That used to be a cherished American value, but these days it's something you don't hear very often in the press.

These same voters say it's wrong for elected officials to hold back, alter, or disregard scientific reports if they conflict with their own views. Surprisingly, eighty-three percent of Republicans feel this way, while just seventy five percent of Democrats do. This suggests mainstream Republican voters may be unhappy with Republican politicians who deny the conclusions of mainstream science on topics like climate change, HPV vaccine, and the like.

Getting off oil

Americans also seems to be heavily weighing alternative energy and want the federal government to be spending more on alternative energy research. Fifty-three percent of all likely US voters rank developing alternative energy as a top US spending priority, second only to paying down the federal deficit. This is about twice the number of voters that think the government is not spending enough on national defense. Funding science and math education came in fourth, just behind investing in roads and bridges, and scientific research was fifth.

Getting back on top or slipping back

The survey reveals deep concerns among Americans about their country's ability to maintain leadership in science. Just forty-two percent of likely voters believe the United States will remain the world leader in science just eight years from now. Isn't that worth a debate? Eighty-five percent of voters are concerned that an uncertain future for science funding in the US will cause scientists to leave their jobs or move to other countries, but the candidates aren't talking about it much.

Voters also think candidates for congress should participate in science debates - this would seem to be a no-brainer since this is where the legislation to tackle the country's major challenges is supposed to originate.

TJ had it right - almost

Thomas Jefferson thought it would require "no very high degree" of education for voters to discern their own best interests. In 1787 he wrote to James Madison:

And say, finally, whether peace is best preserved by giving energy to the government, or information to the people. This last is the most certain, and the most legitimate engine of government. Educate and inform the whole mass of the people. Enable them to see that it is their interest to preserve peace and order, and they will preserve them. And it requires no very high degree of education to convince them of this. They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty.

Today, we live in a different world. Science has grown so advanced and its ability to amplify the power of the individual has grown so profound that there is a much higher burden of education and responsibility placed upon the individual than there was in Jefferson's time. Both democracy and the environment are threatened by this gap.

The voters are ahead of the candidates

US voters seem intrinsically to recognize the importance of such a discussion. The least the candidates for president could do is submit to the will of the people, and participate in a nationally televised presidential science debate to discuss the real challenges facing the nation and, directly or indirectly, affecting the lives of each of her citizens. Such an historic recognition could be just what the country needs to climb out of its tailspin of loudly asserted rhetoric and reengage in evidence-based problem-solving, the way Jefferson envisioned it would.

Sign the call for a science debate

Sign the petition to ask the candidates for president to participate in a televised US science debate.
Make a tax-deductible donation.


Get Shawn Lawrence Otto's new book: Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America, Starred Kirkus Review; Starred Publishers Weekly review. Visit him at http://www.shawnotto.com. Like him on Facebook. Join ScienceDebate.org to get the presidential candidates to debate science.


 
 
 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RillyKewl
Fighting the War on Women
11:55 PM on 04/05/2012
I disagree with the posters on here saying politicians shouldn't debate science.
Don't you want to know what the candidates policies are?
Whether or not a candidate feels these are worthy priorities or not?

I'm still sick from the debate 4 yrs ago when half the candidates said they do NOT believe in evolution! Is this who you want as leader of the free world? Come on!

We're not only talking about medical research or NASA, but how about the authority of a place like some place in the middle of Texas editing schoolbooks for K-12?
Or the Koch agenda being taught in state universities?

I for one, very much want to know whether climate science + new energy development are on the administration's priorities list.
10:48 AM on 04/06/2012
Thank you, RillyKewl! Can you imagine how unnerved candidates were when the first "faith and values" debates were proposed? So many conflicting faiths, so many opportunities to offend! But they ended up doing them because religious people had - excuse the theological term - balls. They insisted. A lot of the people responding to Otto's article admit defeat before even trying to get the candidates to do as RillyKewl (above) suggests: discuss important matters of policy that usually get overlooked.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RillyKewl
Fighting the War on Women
11:11 AM on 04/06/2012
Damn straight. Why wouldn't we want to know each candidate's position on these issues? Too often, a political candidate gets into office, and then, Boom!, they're full of wild surprises.
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BillZBubb
Cogito ergo sum. Cogito.
08:03 PM on 04/04/2012
There is a whole lot to disagree with in this article. I won't bother to go through the whole list but I will make this observation: If a huge majority of republicans "may be unhappy with Republican politicians who deny the conclusions of mainstream science on topics like climate change, HPV vaccine, and the like" why do they keep voting for them?

Clearly they aren't THAT unhappy. Which goes back to the issue of why have non-scientist politicians debate science, to an audience that doesn't give it much weight in the voting booth?

Until those people who claim to pollsters to support scientific policies ACTUALLY VOTE LIKE THEY DO, debating science policy is an exercise in futility.
08:16 AM on 04/05/2012
I hate Obama for what he did to the liberal cause but I will probably have to vote for him because I hate other side more. I imagine the other side feel the same way.
07:25 PM on 04/04/2012
People say there's no point in the candidates debating science because they're not scientists. They're not economists or theologians either but that doesn't stop them talking about both the economy and "faith and values". What ScienceDebate.org is trying to do is discuss science POLICY. "What are you going to DO about (climate change, stem cell research, whatever)?" The poll confirms that voters do want to know what's going on in the physical world and how scientific knowledge can help us or (through misuse or malice) harm us. Why would you EXCLUDE science from the elements that go into a voter's decision? No matter how little knowledge the candidates have, isn't it better to discuss scientific issues than NOT discuss them? Might not the prospect of a science debate force candidates to educate themselves to avoid looking stupid? Wouldn't presidential science debates then become part of the science education of the voter? Wouldn't that benefit all of us?

It's a mistake to bemoan the lack of respect for scientific reality in politics, but then (patronizingly) say, "But it's so complicated only we understand it so here's a free pass, candidate, no need to talk about it." Remember, there was a point during the last election when the candidates had been asked more questions about UFOs than climate change. It's not entirely their fault they weren't given many opportunities discuss the big science issues.

This time around let's make sure they get a great opportunity...

Support ScienceDebate.org.
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SpinDizzy
This Space for Rent
07:06 PM on 04/04/2012
I take most polls with a grain of salt. This one I'd take with a whole salt mine. I simply don't believe that born again religious voters care about actual science as it is practiced by actual scientists. For them, debating science means proving that the earth is younger than springtime and Adam and Eve danced with the dinosaurs. It means affirming that a gamete deserves more rights as a person than an adult American woman. It means arguing exactly how corrupt, on a scale of one to ten, are the scientists who assert that global warming is caused by human activity. No, sorry. I don't believe these folks care about science. They're too busy trying to figure out how Noah managed to get all those velociraptors aboard the ark without them eating the chickens.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jimboy71
Hen Diapheron Heautoi
12:18 AM on 04/05/2012
Not all religious people are fundamentalist Christians.

There is your intial error.
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Iatros78
Science is the consensus of expert opinion
06:52 PM on 04/04/2012
I'm already dreading the inevitable presidential "debates". What's offered are canned, rehearsed responses to the same tired questions asked every four years. No wonder the public is generally uninterested in these "debates." Journalists don't really seem to care about the questions or the answers either- their chief concern is who is ahead in the "horse race." Most importantly, if an actual presidential science debate took place, the news stations would be forced to actually ask for the opinions of people who know something about science. The same talking heads who are endlessly interviewed on FOX, MSNBC, CNN, etc. have the same limited interests (the political horse race) as the journalists who interview them.

Science isn't in the "safe zone" for either politicians or journalists.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
psher
06:34 PM on 04/04/2012
I hope there is a few questions about science, and one about evolution in the presidential debates.
06:06 PM on 04/04/2012
Science and politics, my stomach goes into a mode that I can't quite describe, enough said?TMI. Anyway politicians are not scientists and scientists are not politicians. To make any attempt to emulsify the two is impossible. It is about time that the poll takers, party ops. and the like understand that most of the American populace is smart enough to figure out who they want as candidates.I will continue to use my educated, well informed gray matter thank you.!!
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04:35 PM on 04/04/2012
I would love to see a good scientific debate over Ohm's Law. How exciting would that be.
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05:07 PM on 04/04/2012
I would be interested in hearing from you how you think the flow of free electrons (I) in a closed circuit are directly proportional to the applied electromotive force (E) and inversely proportional to the amount of resistance to that flow (R) would make for an interesting debate to the electorate at large. Or are you just being a sarcastic boor?
IMOPINIONH8D
because I want it empty...
08:52 PM on 04/04/2012
Careful, the rightwingers on here might think you're talking about a government takeover.
04:14 PM on 04/04/2012
While I find your results heartening, I don't know how to interpret them since "healthcare" was lumped in with "science-based challenges." People are very excited about healthcare right now, and therefore place great importance on it, but for politically- and economically-based reasons, not for science-based reasons.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
vorykua
"you can't be neutral" - Howard Zinn
03:54 PM on 04/04/2012
speaking up is encouraged by society. people in general feel entitled to provide their opinion about all sorts of subjects. unfortunately, this is not always good practice, specially when we dont know what we are talking about.
opinions on science, by politicians, should at best be considered qualified. most politicians are attorneys. a politicians talent lies in the art of persuasion. politicians will persuade in direct proportion not necesarily to what will get them more votes, but towards the funding they need to get their point accross. these funding will more often than not, and in disproportionate amounts, will come from corporations who have little interest in educating the science of anything only as long it serves their purpose of remaining as profitable as possible.
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WASanford
I think, therefore I am mad as hell!
03:39 PM on 04/04/2012
"Tell me lies; tell me sweet little lies" (Fleetwood Mac)

I don't know what we could expect from a science debate, but I believe that if the American people actually wanted the truth it's easy enough to attain it. If they really paid attention to what scientists are saying, they'd have to make sacrifices to fight global climate change. That means driving smaller cars which is something that one should only do to escape higher gas prices. We'd all have to walk more and even sometimes even take public transportation. It's so much easier to just pretend that the "scientists" who are crying that it's a colossal hoax are are not compensated for doing so by the petroleum industry and go on with our business. Like our congress, we are determined to DO NOTHING even if it means our species will become extinct!

It's been fun, but what do I tell my teenage daughter?

Recommended reading: Eaarth - Bill McKibben
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
YogiDarwin
What would Saul Alinsky do?
02:02 PM on 04/04/2012
None of the candidates for president, to the best of my knowledge, is qualified to participate in a science debate. A better idea, I think, is to let each candidate select an actual scientist to represent his position on the specific topic of the debate (e.g., is climate change real or not?) and then let these working scientists debate the issue. Viewers might get actual information on which to base an opinion rather than a series of preplanned speeches designed to minimize turning off one's "base."
01:58 PM on 04/04/2012
Good article. Many comments below are true and false. I would say they don't want to debate it because most of them know nothing about science.

What is shocking about education curriculum is that the article mentions humanities and science at oppostites ends of the spectrum, when they should be tied together.

This notion that one should only study and learn subjects based upon what occupation you are going into is a big problem in many societies. Individuals should have to be more well-rounded education wise.

Interesting the article mentions Thomas Jefferson, who in terms of knowledge, was a true renaissance man. Horticulture to Law to Literature, etc., etc.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
beverlyg
12:54 PM on 04/04/2012
Science has clearly shown that The Bible and Koran are ficticious lore. Though these religions provide at the same time a remarkable foundation on which persons can build their lives, they also lead uus to war. Scientists shy away from declaring the obvious truths.
Wouldn;t mankind be best served if scientists dealt with the truth of our existance? They seem tongue tied whenever the subject is raised
Though I profited a great deal from growing up in a Christian family, it seems to me that truth is essential to man;s progress. I still believe that there is "a Creator"; howeve mankind hasn't the slightest notion as to what "It" is..
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Steelsil
Warren/Grayson 2016! Yes We Can!
02:11 PM on 04/04/2012
If everything and everyone had a creator, where did the creator come from?  Duh.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
beverlyg
03:10 PM on 04/04/2012
Right on, Steelsil!We can;t conceive of the origin of all the atoms making up the Universe . Some how there was a beginning but our minds are incapable of understanding it.!
03:49 PM on 04/04/2012
'He created everything'. Those pot-holes, for example. When there's an exceptionally bad one I am apt to take His name in vain. But justifiably, if He created them.
04:49 PM on 04/04/2012
Mankind may have a notion what it is : Einstein's dark energy. His equation has a big bang singularity solution, where empty space has an unsustainable energy density.
12:40 PM on 04/04/2012
Surely the author does not believe that the voters want to support the candidate that can recognize and act upon the best scientific understanding of the day. More than 40% of these same poll responders believe that dinosaurs coexisted with early man, little over 50% know how long it takes the earth to revolve around the sun. Voters want candidates that see the world as they do. Politicians know this, scientists seem to believe that people want the truth, when they really just want to believe.