Hillary Is The Underdog

This analysis is not about who I support. Her win in California had more to do with early voting and the control they have over the process in California. The later trends were all pointing to an Obama victory in California as evidenced by Zogby's prediction of a double digit loss by Hillary. He was not completely wrong and we will never know the exit polls from the networks who could easily tell us what the exit polls were for those who voted yesterday.

The Clintons can muscle lots of Hispanic votes in California much like Daley did in Chicago in 1960. The Clinton's Hispanic leaders in California control much of the voting process in California. This is not true in any other state. Hillary won the Hispanics in California by a 2/1 ratio. Compare this result with what happened in Arizona and New Mexico where the ratio was much more balanced. Clearly New Mexico has the highest proportion of Hispanic voters in the country and the result was a virtual tie. The only other remaining primary with a high Hispanic population is in Texas where the Clintons will not get a 2/1 ratio of the Hispanic community. I suspect that in Texas the Hispanic vote will be no better than 50/50 especially since it is a Republican state.

Checking the other states that have yet to vote and the all important super delegates, it is unlikely that she will get the nomination given the momentum Obama has gained and the money advantage he has established. Indeed, it was reported today that Hillary had to loan $5M to her campaign. Furthermore, Bill Clintons negative impact on the African American community will probably hurt Hillary a lot in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Given all of the indicators above, there is no question in my mind that Obama will win. The media will not tell you this because they want to suck out all the campaign funds that are available. I assure you that they know this but they want us to believe this is still a horse race. It is over.

Comments

[MPeter]

Thank you. The evidence is there for everyone to see. The media tried to down-play the fact that Obama won tsunami Tuesday hands down, taking 13 out of 22 states, including one in her backyard. They tried to claim he won by huge African american margins but could not tell us how many AA are states like MN or Alaska. She is in financial trouble, he just hauled in $32m and $5-$25 contributions are rolling in even as the Movement picks up speed. He draws tens of thousands to his rallies--a cross-section of Americans, she repels them. She was supposed to be a shoe-in; a corronation. Now she is broke. The states she won yesterday, are all secure Democratic states. So, where is the appeal? She should stop now before this ala Romney type of loaning her campaign money bankrupts her. Obama's is a movement powered by ordinary Americans. It is unstoppable.

[bjreed]

I hope you're right. I would love for someone who could actually unite the country to be the Democratic nominee.

Nothing against Hillary. I think she would be an excellent choice also, but I think Obama has a better chance in the general election.

[ckdogs]

I hope you are right, Mr. Drobny! It would be so wonderful to have a candidate like Barack Obama! I fear it's too good to be true.

[HowardRoarke]

Obama will only win if there isn't a repeat of NH.

Obama will only win if the voters believe there is a chance he can lose and show up to vote.