Hillary Should Concede

As I predicted in my February 6th post, the mathematics are now clear http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-drobny/hillary-is-the-underdog_b_85387.html. Unless she wins Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania by a 60/40 margin, the pledged delegate race is over. The only way the Clintons can save their legacy is to face reality and concede for the benefit of the Democrats and the nation. Bill has severely damaged his legacy by introducing race into the primaries. That was a terrible mistake for former President Bubba. Hillary still has a political future as a Senator with a possible majority leader position. It is now time for Democrats to unite.

Comments

[mamacita]

ATTENTION VOTERS IN TEXAS, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, AND OTHERS! SHELDON DROBNY has decided for you that your candidate shall be Barack Obama! No need to vote or voice your opinion, SHELDON DROBNY has spoken, and even if you are living in one of the states of one-third of the US that hasn't voted yet, SHELDON DROBNY has decided that there is no need for any other candidates on the ballot!

I'm so glad we've got so many experts to tell us how to vote...so many decisions, so little time....

[JohnFromCensornati]

Not to worry.
Those of us who vote in late primaries are used to having no imput into the nomination process.
Drobny was merely pointing out that it's over.
It is.

[altohone]

I was with you until you suggested Hillary as majority leader.

The DLC'ers haven't earned leadership roles, and handing power to one who has voted against what we believe in makes no sense.

It was justifiable for the DLC to lead when Bill was elected... their failure to retain power should result in their loss of control over the party too.

As they say, elections have consequences.

In no way shape or form should the Democratic party allow itself to be held hostage by the wing that lost Congress and the nomination, should Obama win.

[hepwa]

I suppose Obama should've conceded after Super Tuesday? He didn't win the popular vote. He couldn't carry California or New York or Mass., so for the good of the party he should've just stepped down.

Hillary is not done. Not by a long shot.

[jfor]

The difference is Hillary is very well known, Obama is not, or rather was not. Obama should not be where he is today against someone like Clinton.

Of course your right though Clinton is not done yet, she still has plenty of time to threaten, cajole and cry her way to a few more wins. There is plenty more time for Bill to embarress himself some more, there is plenty more time for more Clinton bullshit and lies.

Hillary will do or say anthing to be president even at the risk of harming her party and her country. Thats what makes her so special.

[lisakaz]

Don't know that it's over. Not at least until March 4. At any rate, I HIGHLY doubt Hillary will quit -- not when she stands a chance to get MI and FL delegates and superdelegates. The Clintons will fight, no matter what rules or promises are broken. I don't think the "good of the party" will matter. Maybe if Edwards can get his delegates over to Obama AND Obama wins either OH or TX, she will see the writing on the wall.

But don't hold your breath. Lots still to come and the worst thing the Obama ppl can do is think inevitability is on their side. They can't coast; the Clintons will not quit, even if or when they should.

[LeoMarvin]

As an enthusiastic Obama supporter, allow me to say that this is nonsense. I suppose there has to be a first person to encourage any candidate to drop out, so you win, but whether or not an Obama victory is inevitable (I hope it is) it's ridiculous to expect anyone in Hillary's position to drop out now.

[maidyalook]

Sheldon, Sheldon, Sheldon, get a grip. Hillary needs to roll over and let The Chosen One win. Just give up Hillary, the world wants Obama, no, the universe wants Obama, because he says hope and change half a dozen times in every speech. He inspires, therefor he is Presidential. Uh, no, I think I want my President to have experience not just a cult following. Hillary08

[mthespian]

1) I don't think Hillary will concede unless she loses both Ohio and Texas. She knows this is her one shot. If Obama succeeds and brings about the shift in the electorate that it appears he can, Hillary will never get another bite at the Presidential apple.
2) Hillary doesn't have more experience in elected office.
2) Barack has said a lot more than hope and change. He's talked about how and written even more about.
3) Congratulations. The Clinton talking point is now the McCain talking point. Does that make you proud? http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/13/mccain-opens-fire-on-obam_n_86360.html

[BitJam]

I disagree. I think she is doing the Democratic party and the nation a valuable service by staying in the race.

If she backed out now then we would never get a chance to see Obama win Texas and Ohio in the primaries. We wouldn't be able to see Obama gain even more ground among women, whites, Latinos, and the working class. By losing to Obama over and over she is helping him build momentum leading up to the general election.

[Lon]

This seems to be somewhat on the money.

At this point there seem to be two ways this could play out. Clinton wins Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania with Obama winning the rest. And then we get to the convention with no clear winner and contentious issues about Michigan and Florida and superdelegates.

Or Obama's momentum could give him one or more of the big states and then it is likely that the superdelegates would fall in behind him.

The worst scenario is the election decided by the contentious issues. But the best scenario is Obama winning the big states so that he there is no contraversy left.

Clinton would do best by her party if she stays in and loses at least Ohio or Texas. Then she could gracefully bow out.

[davidglover]

If she doesn't bow out gracefully, she will make Romney look like Capt. Magnaminous. Even if she is not done, let's stick a fork in her anyway.

[klondiker]

Are you forgetting Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, and the superdelagates??

[kurttrail]

LOL! Why would you count Florida & Michigan? So many people didn't bother voting in those states just because it didn't matter. Hell, if the DNC didn't stop the candidates from campaigning in FL & MI, I doubt that Clinton would have won those states. Hell, Obama wasn't even on the MI ballot.

[klondiker]

Actually, the Florida Dem primary had a record turnout, even if you exclude all the absentee ballots.

[klondiker]

One solution might be to re-do the primaries. I think that would be fair. Basically, I wouldn't want Dems to be in a position where they haven't counted those two states, and it comes back to haunt them in the general election.

We can't afford to lose Florida (again) and Michigan in the general election.

[HowardRoarke]

In America we have a name for folks who win elections by being the only one on the ballot: Dictators.

[poppaculture]

Sir, I'm certain the vitriol and invective speech will make its way here soon. - You make a valid point, but I think some believe they were destined for (if not owed) this job as POTUS. - And that, sir, is beyond the concept of "hope." It borders on another malady. - I hope the senator from New York will help our new Democratic president in passing legislation thru both houses (as the best way of serving America).

[starboymikey]

As I predicted in my February 6th post, the mathematics are now clear
__________­__________­__________­__________­_____

Sheldon,

With Obama now holding just the slimmest of delegate leads (5 or 6 according counts I've seen tonight), your math puzzles me. Why does Hillary Clinton need to win as much as 60% of the delegates in three large states in order to secure the nomination? Seems like she could take the lead with just a tiny majority in these states, depending of course on how exactly the votes break.

[ATLiberal]

The first thing you want to do is subtract superdelegates and look at the earned delegate count. He is ahead by well over 100. The reason you want to subtract superdelegates is this: Whoever gets the most delegates is going to get the vast majority of the superdelegate vote.
Why? Because the DNC is not suicidal, and if the winner of the voted delegates does not get the nomination, it will severely cripple the party.

[gerontion72]

Don't dismiss the Clinton fraud machine so easily. They will steal these states, if they have to.

Clearly, however, there is no popular momentum for Hillary. She is a dull candidate, and mostly the party machinery want her as the nominee.

[DrPaulProteus]

Dull candidate? Duller than John Kerry? Al Gore? The party establishment wouldn't have it any other way... its as if they want to lose.

Luckily they're going up against John McCain or (god it pains me to type this) Mike Huckabee, and if the Democrats can't trounce either of those morons, then they are truly useless.

[Dap]

Dear Mr. Drobny,

We (You and I) are in the exact same stream of consciousness, it is quite uncanny. Sunday I was thinking the same.

It feels good to know you also feel this way, hopefully many others do too. Agape.

PS. I'm going to be supporting Gery Chico for Senator, should Senator Obama win the Presidency.

[coco57]

This notion of unity is an illusion and undemocratic. There was unity in Saddam Hussein's Iraq but not consensus. There is unity is Putin's Russia, but not agreement. I have not even voted yet and we still have a great debate to have. Obama may have a slight majority of delegates going into the convention but not the 2025 he needs. Until he gets that, it is not over and should not be. What is wrong with a convention without a foregone conclusion? Maybe someone will actually watch it. This is democracy. It is messy and people fight over great issues. Obama's unity is that of someone too lazy to fight for what he believes in. He did not fight to end the war even though he repeatedly reminds us he was against it. Hillary has fought her whole life. It's hard but it is the only way this country has ever advanced.

[BitJam]

Read in the Washington Post about how Obama put his heart and soul behind a law to stop police beatings of suspects in custody. The first law of its kind in our nation that got passed because Obama could reach across party lines:

Judge Him by His Laws

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/03/AR2008010303303.html

Or look up his record in the Senate. Obama has done much more during his short tenure there than Clinton has done with her "vast experience". You call him lazy yet he has done more than Clinton and he has done it in a shorter amount of time. Perhaps if Clinton had spent less time fighting she could have gotten as much accomplished as Obama.

[HowardRoarke]

It will never, ever, ever happen.

She's going to drag this out until no scheme can hand her the presidency.

That said, if she does what you suggest, Sheldon, my opinion of her would really go up.

[starboymikey]

Can't say it much straighter than that.