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Sheldon Filger

Sheldon Filger

Posted: February 14, 2011 03:04 PM

As the United States national debt reaches parity with total annual GDP, President Barack Obama continues to preside over a record level of deficit spending by the federal government. He has just sent to Congress a proposed $3.73 trillion budget for FY 2012, while forecasting a record $1.65 trillion deficit for the current fiscal year. Earlier, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the current deficit would reach at least $1.5 trillion. These figures mean that America remains trapped with unsustainable structural mega-deficits, and that more than 40 percent of everything the U.S. federal government spends is financed with borrowed money.

As I have commented on before, this level of government indebtedness just cannot be sustained, and will lead to catastrophic repercussions. While the politicians in Washington, particularly in the Obama administration, pay lip service to the need to "rein in" this profligate public spending, nobody believes that they are serious. The president's claim that he "plans" to reduce the deficit cumulatively over ten years by just over a trillion dollars is an utter farce, since even by the most optimistic forecasts this would leave a combined deficit over the decade of more than ten trillion dollars.

The problem, however, is not uniquely one of the Obama administration and the Democratic Party. The Republicans, who left for Obama as an inaugural present in 2009 a first-ever annual deficit to exceed a trillion dollars, are as intellectually bankrupt as are their adversaries on the other side of the aisle. The GOP is equally bereft of ideas on how to control this raging fiscal train wreck, offering little more than worn-out cliches such as reducing taxes, as though that would not further exacerbate the federal government's structural mega-deficit.

What we are witnessing is not only an economic and fiscal calamity in the making. It is as much a display of political dysfunctionality and moral cowardice as it is of inept fiscal policy. Which leads to the melancholy conclusion that it will not be the political echelon in Washington that ultimately imposes budgetary discipline on public spending. Increasingly likely is a doomsday scenario, in which the bond vigilantes, well practiced already with their punishing assaults on the credit ratings of Greece, Ireland and now Portugal, unleash the full fury of the market place on Uncle Sam. When that fiscally apocalyptic moment arrives, not even the impressive weight of political inertia that resides in Washington DC will be able to impede a sovereign debt crisis in the United States that will not only cripple the nation's economy with devastating effect; it will likely dispossess the next generation of Americans of their future.

 
 
 

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02:28 PM on 02/16/2011
The way to pay for the deficits caused by government spending is through the taxes. It's not that complicated. You can make it complicated by playing ideological games. But you need to create the tax that is least offensive and most productive. That is certainly open to discussion.

Right now there is lots of cash in the economy without use because there is no demand for goods and services. Why not use some to pay down the deficit. No, we can't piss off the wealthy because they won't invest in America. Yeah. Right. They are already investing in the emerging economies and want to have more cash for that (reduce taxes here so there is more money for investing in China). The only way they will invest in America is to create demand and jobs here. Cutting spending is a good way to eliminate that demand. But if we spend, we should obviously make it jobs-efficient. And that is a different issue than tax incidence. One of the ideological games to stop is the conflation of taxes with spending effectiveness (the old "starve the beast" theory). That being said, is it likely that the ideological games will quit? Not with a Republican Party committed primarily to destroying the Obama Presidency (can't have job creation before 2012) and not to the American economy.
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03:53 AM on 02/16/2011
Greece has the capacity to overcome its deficit, it is minor compared to the amount of money in the Eurozone. The USA has another problem. By being an international currency, the USA has been able to corrupt the system. Endless lines of dollars have been printed in secret. With these dollars the USA has consumed the food that was ment for their great-grandchildren. Now it is time to start paying back but. There is a problem, your system has allowed the owners of the means of production, to export the production capacity to avoid american (low) cost of production. You fail to make real jobs now, even while demands worldeconomy is growing, you have nothing left to sell. Ok, you may sell some airplanes and weapons but that does not make an economy producing money to pay your debts. I am no economist or econometrist, just remember what was printed in my newspaper over 45 years.
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Fractal122635
03:03 AM on 02/16/2011
Forget the deficit. A deficit of one dollar simply continues to pile up our debt. It is time to start paying DOWN the debt, running surpluses to deal with this larger problem so that we can try and tackle the bigger issue, the 115 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities that we now have.
10:33 PM on 02/15/2011
The US has for some time now been living off its capital, not new wealth creation - thus the serial bubbles. While HP's typical input from economists suggests there is no fiscal crisis, it really ought to be evident that the underlying assumption in that argument values American assets at their current, absurdly high levels, as if nothing substantially had changed over the last couple of decades. In reality, the entire range of physical plant, industry and infrastructure, the entire built environment is rottting away, and its value with it.

Once a country (the US and American people) owes 350% of its income, it has ceded control to those with real capital. There is no escape - raise taxes and cut spending now.
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JudgeMoonbox
09:44 PM on 02/15/2011
Imagine that the media really was liberally biased like the Republicains are always whining. Wouldn't they anticipate that their criticisms of Obama for not doing enough about the deficit cause this media to remiund everyone that the GOP wasn't concerned about the deficit last December when they held unemployment benefits hostage to the preservation of Bush's elitist tax cuts?

That they should do a 180 once their favorite budget buster is assured shows that either they know the media's not biased or they're masochistically begging to be humiliated and the media, like the sadist in the old joke, says "no."
09:52 PM on 02/15/2011
Win The Future?
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JudgeMoonbox
08:24 AM on 02/16/2011
"Win The Future?"

What point are you trying to make by quoting Obama's slogan? That because it's a little trite, Obama must be begging to be humiliated as much as McConnell?
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democrats for life
republicans need not apply
09:12 PM on 02/15/2011
unfunded lialibilities in the usa is now currenty at a negative 77 trillion dollars, in order to pay this debt, every man, woman, child and babies would have to kick in 1.1 million dollars. anyone willing to kick in their 1.1 million yet?
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Infostream
08:49 PM on 02/15/2011
Please someone explain to me how all the countries who use Fractional Reserve Banking to grow their money supplies are not doomed to crushing debt?

In 1960 the total money supply of the US was only $200 billion ( a fraction of the GDP), since then we have created over $12 trillion as debt via Fractional Reserve, that means virtually every dollar in circulation was loaned into existence, it is all DEBT.

Obama's SOTU suggested "innovation" will get us out of debt, but we have just experienced 50 years of unprecedented innovation and 4x increase in productivity - and it has resulted in debt not prosperity. When the only money to represent productivity can only be created as debt, the more your economy grows, the more debt you must create.

END FRACTIONAL RESERVE FOR THE PROFIT OF BANKING CORPORATIONS. RESTORE CONSTITUTIONAL MONEY.
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Bayard Waterbury
social philosopher
08:37 PM on 02/15/2011
I would challenge anyone to take about 15 minutes to complete the exercise which can be found at the following link. It is very revealing and you will be surprised at how easy it is to create a balanced budget, and just how truly gutless (read corrupt) our Congress and Administration really are:

http://public-consultation.org/exercise/
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Bayard Waterbury
social philosopher
08:32 PM on 02/15/2011
Sheldon, thanks for this one. As you so appropriately say, we can’t blame this national calamity on the Democrats and Obama. I refuse to defend them, but they are just the “co-conspirators” in the creation of the magic formula for the failure of this country.
The major contributing factor is the plutocracy. In the case of America, the plutocracy is comprised of the rich and powerful (both individuals and corporations) and the two major political parties. That is the triumvirate which is responsible for the creation of this pending catastrophe.
For anyone who actually pays attention, and who avoids the media plutocratic participants, will figure this out. Remember that the major media which controls 90% of all news, both print and broadcast, is owned by about seven companies with interlocking Boards. They survive on advertising which is primarily from the other oligarchies (i.e. big energy, food, the MIC, banking, etc.). They are unlikely to tell any truth which could harm the interests of the hands that feed them.
Politicians in both parties are essentially equally supported by the other members of the plutocracy, and, so, they also refuse to bite their keepers.
And, yes, we are on the way to becoming like Greece, Portugal, England, Ireland, et al. This is because our politicians will NOT EVER take the necessary steps to overcome the crisis on any rational basis. They can’t. Their hands are tied by the political power structure.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:13 PM on 02/15/2011
Spain, Greece, Portugal are smaller part of EU economy than California is of US. California is more bankrupt than any of them. The difference is, EU is not one nation. We are, so CA is backed by us, and there is no problem. Japan is in bigger debt than the US now, so was the US after WWII. Both 125% of GDP, vs US 100% now. Not to mention: US tax rates are lowest in 70 years. Maybe that's the problem.
09:14 PM on 02/15/2011
You're free at any time to open your wallet and send more of your money to Washington, nothing is stopping you. In fact its tax deductible as long as its intent is for a public purpose as in retiring the national debt. Maybe its time to put your money where your mouth is.
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JudgeMoonbox
09:56 PM on 02/15/2011
"You're free at any time to open your wallet and send more of your money to Washington­, nothing is stopping you."

If you think that's a great idea, why don't we set up subscriptions for conservatives favorite spending programs like the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
11:10 PM on 02/15/2011
OK,but I won't pay any taxes that go the War Department, renamed the euphemistic "Defense Department" in 1949. I don't believe in war, won't fund it. SS is already paid for separately, it's not a tax. Cut Medicare Part D, it's just a subsidy for drug companies, so I won't pay Medicare taxes. BTW it's easy for people with money to brag about a mouth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_War
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democrats for life
republicans need not apply
09:23 PM on 02/15/2011
Japan is actually in better shape then us, because the citizens are wealthy. not some of them either. 95 percent of the citizens in Japan have gross 50,000 dollars saved up, with only 2,000 dollars average per person of debt with a net worth being 48,000 dollars
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
11:05 PM on 02/15/2011
Absolutely, and for an even more important reason: their population is declining. Economists claim that's bad, but it makes real estate cheaper for the next generation. One analyst I read showed that though Japan has more old people, it has fewer kids, so about the same number of "unproductive". But in fact kids are more expensive than old people, so it's a myth that an aging population is a bad thing.
08:03 PM on 02/15/2011
News about the...bankruptcy of ...USA are greatly exaggerated...

Articles like that may have good intentions but its doomsday mood is counterproductive...

All we need is a decade of a leaner prudent lifestyle...

Ferrari should go bankrupt but Lexus (..especially that $ 35K beauty ...) should do well......
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Bayard Waterbury
social philosopher
08:34 PM on 02/15/2011
I love to dream too. Remember ostriches are happy birds.
09:39 PM on 02/15/2011
Lovely,friendly,joyful.
07:45 PM on 02/15/2011
Get used to the idea, sports fans. Think USSR. Think Assyrian Empire. Think Atlantis and the Aztecs and any other nation that was one day on top and the next, POOF! Gone, vanished, dead as the dodo. Because it's over. Lights out. Period. And there's no power on this earth that can prevent the dissolution of the USA a we know it; no TeaBagger, no Wimpocrat, no enlightened evangelist, no independent visionary or generous billionaire can dig us out of this grave. Because everything about America is not just broke but vaporized. So let's stop wringing our hands about getting "out of this mess" 'cuz that ain't happenin', McGee. Start thinking about post-America "America," because here's a news flash; everyone else on earth already is.
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LeftCoastEng
Obsessed with failed trade
06:50 PM on 02/15/2011
Anyone reading this post should also read this one: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-k-galbraith/deficit-hawks-down-the-mi_b_822811.html
JoeB
Economist
06:00 PM on 02/15/2011
It really does not matter who is responsible for the current deficit. Republican or Democrat. The problem now is that we have an unsustainable debt crisis that has to be addressed. Blaming someone else will not solve the problem. We could end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and eliminate Part D of Medicare and still have deficits. The only way to seriously address the deficit is to address Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
07:29 PM on 02/15/2011
BTW, Social Security has its own revenue stream and $2.6 trillion invested in U.S.Treasuries, the safest investments in the world. ( ask the trust fund babies.and China among others.) And get real about taxing the wealthy as was done up until St. Ronnie let them off the hook. Matter of fact, when taxes on the welathy were stripped early in the '80's, we started accumulating debt at a breakneck pace. That coupled with the assault on the middle class that has flatened wages and restricted revenue even further.
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07:44 PM on 02/15/2011
Uhhhm...what about taxing the vampire squids jamming their blood funnels into anything that smells like money? You know, the Wall Street criminal class.
05:55 PM on 02/15/2011
we cannot have such a large deficit again 2012, Stop the war in the middle east, stop spending money on defense ,Outspending to bankruptsy would be no defense at all. We really need to stop this madness of spend and worry later. perhaps it is too late already in terms of its momentum.
09:48 PM on 02/15/2011
The military's budget reach its peak in years '43-45 at just over 37% of GDP, even during the Viet Nam Years military spending remained below 10%. During the Bush years Military spending was 3.1% in 2000 then subsequent to 911 with both the Iraq and Afghan Wars it grew to 4.3% of GDP.

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=ms_mil_xpnd_gd_zs&idim=country:USA&dl=en&hl=en&q=military+spending+as+percent+of+gdp

What has grown unabated since the '40s are entitlement spending which now exceeds 10% of GDP and is forecast to approach 20% by the 2050's.

http://www.heritage.org/budgetchartbook/entitlements-historical-tax-levels

Where defense spending has remained less than 10% of GDP since the Korean War entitlement spending is skyrocketing at unsustainable rates.

http://www.heritage.org/budgetchartbook/defense-entitlement-spending