Hour by Hour Guide to Election Returns -- Part 3: 8:00 to 9:00

Daniel Berrier of ElectoPundit also contributed to this Post.

Part 3: 8:00 to 9:00
All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

8:00 PM: Polls close in Alabama (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), New Jersey (15), Oklahoma (7), Pennsylvania (21), Tennessee (11) and the District of Columbia (3) and nearly all of Texas (34) and Michigan (17) and the rest of Florida (27) and New Hampshire (4).

Unless one candidate is winning everything (including states that have been considered reliably safe for their opponent) the 8:00 EST poll closing states do not have enough electoral votes to allow the election to be called over, but it is possible that these states make the outcome clear. If one candidate has taken four out of five of the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida, and the earlier closing Virginia and Ohio, then they may have cinched the election even if it is not yet a mathematical certainty. Pre-election polls have Obama clearly ahead in four out of these five with Florida being the exception where Obama has a narrower lead in the polls.

Missouri is looking like a close race but it is another Bush state that Obama could afford to lose while McCain must win. If Obama wins Missouri it will represent a real gain for Obama among the key swing block of middle-middle-middle voters, middle-income, middle-aged white voters in middle-America.

Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Obama's home state of Illinois are expected to fall in line for Obama, racking up large numbers of electoral votes. In recent polling Obama has also opened up a substantial lead in New Hampshire. McCain is expected to carry Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Senate: The 8:00 poll closings will also yield more important Senate outcomes as we find out if Republican Senator John Sununu has been able to hold off former Governor Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire and whether Republican Senator Roger Wicker (appointed to fill Trent Lott's seat) has been able to turn back a challenge from Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi (B). Thad Cochran is likely to retain his seat in the other Mississippi (A) contest.

House of Represenatives: Democrats have many pickup opportunities in this round of states. Democrat Frank Kratovil was endorsed by outgoing Republican Wayne Gilchrest in MD-1 along the Eastern Shore, and is locked in a close race. In New Jersey, the retirements of two House Republicans have created opportunities for Democrats John Adler in NJ-3 and Linda Stender in NJ-7.

Paul Kanjorski is probably the most at risk Democrat in the House, so should he survive in PA-11, Democrats may stand a good chance of not losing any House seats. Republican Representative Phil English may be vulnerable in PA-3.

The last Republican in New England is Connecticut Rep. Chris Shays in CT-4. Should he lose to Democrat Chris Himes, it will be a historic occasion, but perhaps not much of a bellwether for the rest of the country. Obama's coattails could be strongest in Illinois. Republican Mark Kirk faces Democrat Dan Seals in IL-10 and is the most at risk. A true tidal wave would be at hand if Democrat Colleen Callahan were to beat Republican Aaron Shock in IL-18.

AL-5 is being vacated by long time Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer, where Democrat Parker Griffith is in a tough battle to hold onto the seat from Republican Wayne Parker. Another seat Democrats could lose is Tom DeLay's old seat, TX-23, where Democrat Nick Lampson is fighting to stave off Republican Pete Olson.

8:30 PM: Polls close in Arkansas (6) and North Carolina (15). Arkansas is considered fairly safe for McCain but North Carolina is a real toss-up. An Obama win in North Carolina is yet another way McCain could approach his doom.

It may take some time to project winners in some of these closer states, but McCain is still alive if he gets into the 9:00 hour trailing by about 20 electoral votes. Much more than that and he could be in real trouble.

Senate: North Carolina also has a close Senate race between Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole and State Senator Kay Hagan. The Hagan Campaign's response to Dole's "Godless" attack may go down in history as one of the best response ads ever produced.

The full Hour By Hour Guide to the Election Returns is available at CenteredPolitics.com.