Remember when health care reform was widely popular? In 2008 and 2009 overwhelming majorities supported reform of the health care system, but CenteredPolitics.com warned that public opinion would swing against the effort based on an analysis of polls taken then, and polls taken during Bill Clinton's health reform effort.
If Republicans make re-litigating health care a major topic for this election, they will find that they are now pushing the health care boulder up the same hill that Clinton and then Obama tackled. They can't repeal without replacing but the public has no appetite for three more years of health care reform partisan squabbling.
The poll swung against ClintonCare for three predictable reasons, that were only stronger in 2009 when Obama started his effort, and all are still in effect today.
1) Complexity: Health care is far more complicated than the public's ability to engage public policy.
2) Inertia: The vast majority are satisfied with their own current arrangements.
3) Opportunity cost: Attention on health care takes attention away form the issue most people would like their leaders focused on like a laser beam, the economy and jobs.
Republican message discipline and repetition aside -- even Frank Luntz, Karl Rove and Fox News can't poison just any policy as the now popular auto industry bailout proves -- public opinion on health care dissipated for both Clinton and Obama due to these three elements. Both presidents saw support for health reform swing to opposition because they were not able to simply explain their proposals to a public that suspected they were trying to solve the wrong problem. Clinton's effort failed in Congress while Obama and the Democrats were able to drag their bill across the congressional finish line and reach an historic White House signing ceremony. But both presidents suffered historic defeats in the next congressional mid-term elections.
Repeal and Re-litigate?
The Supreme Court health care reform decision, by itself, offered a political boost to neither party. In our weekly handicapping of four wave election scenarios CenteredPolitics.com barely changed the chances for either party gaining the upper hand based on the ruling noting that Democratic policy gains were offset by a boost in Republican outrage. But this observation comes with a warning for Republican strategists: Their threat to make healthcare a rallying cry for the 2012 election would invite disaster.
The more Republicans dig in on "repeal" the more they invite questions about what they would replace the Affordable Care Act with and how they would go about passing a new health care reform bill. There are too many families benefiting from the Affordable Care Act today to suggest repeal without replace. Are Republicans really willing to kick millions of people under the age of 26 off of their parents health insurance coverage? Do Republicans really want to be the party that brought seniors the "doughnut hole" not once, but twice? [The "doughnut hole" is a very unpopular provision in Medicare Part D that you know nothing about unless you are a health policy wonk or one of the millions of seniors getting prescription medications covered under Medicare Part D.]
So "repeal" cannot stand without "replace" but Romney left himself open to ridicule by appearing to be reading from Obama's talking points as he promised his reform would allow people to keep their current coverage, extend access to affordable care for the uninsured, and cover families with pre-existing conditions. There is no reason to expect Republicans to benefit from points the Democrats were making for two years as their poll numbers plunged. Democrats should re-language the word "replace" as "re-litigate" because health care is complicated, and the past two efforts seemed to take forever.
The public wants a credible economic plan to get the economy moving in 2012 and 2013 and definitely does not want to re-live 2009 and 2010 battles all over again. If the Republicans believe the best way to jump start the economy is repeal of Obamacare, they will find this has partisan appeal but little broad support. Of course, the Chief Justice Roberts gave Republicans a talking point by labeling the penalties for not getting insurance a tax rather than a mandate. So Republicans may convince themselves that this strengthens their argument that Obama is a tax raiser, and makes repeal of Obamacare an economic issue. Realistically, there are not a lot of voters that have not heard Republicans accuse Obama of being a tax raiser that are likely to be moved by this supposedly fresh evidence.
The first polls that come out on the issue may or may not reflect this, but the more time Republicans spend on health care rather than the economy the greater the likelihood that the public will drift away as they did away from Clinton and Obama. The Democrats are already out with the correct talking points that to paraphrase say: Quit whining about issues that were settled in Congress and settled by the Supreme Court and lets come together to get Americans back to work.
This election is going to be won by the party that puts forward a comprehensive, credible, and convincing plan to get the economy moving. For right now that is still a jump ball.
Follow Sheri and Allan Rivlin on Twitter: www.twitter.com/CenteredPols
Eric Segall: Ten Fun Facts (and Morals) About the Affordable Care Act and the Supreme Court.
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
What, Republican call it taxes? It is taxes? What poppycock, who cares!
How many freeloaders are there? All the young people above 26 now unfortunately, who can not afford health insurance, are exempt from taxes/penalties.
The well-to-do who could afford health insurance, but freeload, they deserve more taxes. By any measure, the taxes/penalties are too low.
It should be 50%, just like for missing a minimum required distribution if you are older tham 10 1/2 years: 50%.
Actually, taxes sounds even better, and I hope the IRS can add more penalties to it.
I am still very much confused why the "right" considers themselves the "Christian-evangelical" group, but does not want to help other people. "If you don't have health insurance, it is your own fault," is exactly what evangelical christian republicans say. Where is any compassion or caring. So it costs you a few extra dollars. If your religion means anything, your Christ paid the ultimate price, what are you then , a bargaining pimp looking for the best deal. We all live in this society together. Get a heart and try to see fit to help others in need. Thank God, Roberts voted in favor of Obama's health care act.
At 26 my grandfather had fought in a world war, went from draft to sgt. in 2 years, got shot, came home. Started a building company in 1946 got married, and by the time he was 26 had 2 kids and a 3rd months away.
Today you are lucky to find a kid 26 not living in the basement playing xbox and smoking dope.
And then we wonder why China and India are flying past us.
These times came to an end in the Nixon administration and the income of the poorer half of Americans has been declining ever since. The top 10% have more or less held even while the top 1% has increased its wealth about 400x. The relative security of the earlier times supported a baby boom while the US population has gone into a decline except immigration at the present. This is how the US is becoming a minority/majority country: The basic population can't afford big families.
Your grandfather had it easy once he came home from the war. Today you would find more people unsympathetic to young people who face two tier wage policies and unaffordable higher education.
PATIENT-CENTERED SOLUTIONS? That's all the GOP are talking about currently, but they offer NO details.
That's because these obstructionist, robotic GOP are just using doublespeak found in their 2009 guide to fight Obamacare. They've just dusted it off and now they are following its script!
Check it out: http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/frank-luntz-the-language-of-healthcare-20091.pdf?mobile=nc
Hey, GOP, it's 2012! What healthcare plan are YOU offering to us? You have to offer a replacement and you can't honestly offer one pleasing to your corporate masters that the people will accept. And, say, isn't it about time you move beyond hiding behind the author of your script, your DOUBLESPEAK KING, Dr. Frank Luntz?
Luntz, the man who developed language designed to promote preemptive war in Iraq and distract from the severity of global warming, is the genius behind the GOP disinformation/confusion strategy.
Yeah, invading Iraq worked out really well for the American people.
Seems ignoring global warming is working out really well for us, too.
Thanks, Luntz. Thanks, GOP.
P.S. Climate change is real. In fact, Exxon's CEO just recently acknowledged as much!
under 9x,000 per year in income is subsidized so they dont care what it cost for insurance....the max they will pay is 10%....the median income is in the 40s so most folks are going to be subsidized.....another great program for the middle class to pay for. i guess those nice beachfront properties will be affordable again....folks that make 100k plus will have cadillac plans with a high deductable because of the extremely high cost to insure everyone....
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/03/28/5-reasons-obamacare-is-already-good-for/
I have guided my son to ensure that he will be ready to live his own life when the time comes. Not try to hinder him by keeping us all under the same 'roof'. I want him to go out and be his own man and I am fully confident that he has all the tools and knowledge at his disposal to make sure that happens.
Jean Jacques Rousseau would put his children into orphanages once they were weaned. While he was highly regarded as a social philosopher, the people of his neighborhood would throw rocks at him as he strolled along.
In nature, when adult birds feel their young are old enough to learn how to fly, they toss them out of the nest. As they fall they either learn to fly, or they hit the ground and die.
When forced to perform without safety nets, the vast majority of people rise up and perform. Those that don't rejoin the ecosystem. Either way our collective gene pool becomes better because of it.
The end result is that ultimately the gene pool becomes better because of it :-)
I
http://www.factcheck.org/2010/03/irs-expansion/
Well, we can live for a while with cancer, but can the United States really survive with Republican direction?