Maximum Terror in Mumbai: Confusion Reigns

24 hours after they began, the coordinated terror attacks in Mumbai have produced scores of deaths and wounded and, potentially could end with even more deaths of innocent hostages. What is scarier though is the possibility that this incident may spell danger for India-Pakistan relations at a time when a much-needed thaw seems to be emerging. Confusion reigns in Mumbai, as the authorities try to understand the nature and the reason for these attacks.

Earlier unconfirmed reports on CNN that identified the MV Alpha as a Karachi-registered ship that allegedly carried the attackers proved to be incorrect. The Indian navy boarded the MV Alpha and confirmed that it was, in fact, Vietnamese-registered and had no connection with the attacks. The possibility remains that the ubiquitous "foreign hand" will be blamed for the terrorist actions. Unless there is strong evidence linking Pakistan to the attacks, India would be well advised not to fall back on that option.

Similar to the earlier attacks in New Delhi, chances are that this is a homegrown outfit. It may well be operating under a false flag of the "Deccan Mujahideen", a hitherto unknown group. But what adds to the confusion this time is that there was no statement from the attackers against the Indian political and social system and no demands were made. Rather, there was a focus on selecting British and American hostages. This may well point to the participation of an Islamist group with ties to militants operating in Kashmir or against the state inside Pakistan. Why?

Just one day before the attack, at a meeting in Islamabad of the Home Secretaries of India and Pakistan, an agreement was reached on a wide range of measures aimed at combating terrorism. According to Dawn of 25 November 2008:

"The two sides agreed for the first time to stop blaming each other for any untoward incident without evidence. Under the joint anti-terrorism mechanism, a two-member committee has been formed, comprising additional foreign secretaries of the two sides. The committee will exchange information about terrorists. The agreement on an anti-terrorism mechanism is being considered a big step for improvement of relations.

The resolve to enhance cooperation between their civilian investigation and security agencies -- Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) and India's Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) -- is another significant achievement made during the talks."

The Islamist militants fear that the increasing cooperation between India and Pakistan against terrorism and President Asif Ali Zardari's effusive words on warmer relations with India will leave them without a recruiting base in Pakistan. They would rather derail the nascent peace process between Pakistan and India, using, among other things, the rising unhappiness among Muslim youth in India about their lack of economic and social development.

To its credit, the Indian government set up a high-level committee two years ago to investigate the plight of the Muslims of India, who despite being close to 150 million strong have a disproportionately tiny share of India's burgeoning wealth. The Sachar Commission report of November 2006 confirmed what Indian Muslims had long known: they were well below national averages for education, skills development, employment, and economic opportunities. Some 38 per cent of Muslims in urban areas and 27 per cent in rural areas lived below the poverty line. But today, nearly two years after the release of that report, there is still talk about "targeted intervention" and many of the actions being discussed are still in the future tense. Even when these plans are implemented, at the notoriously slow pace of Indian bureaucracy, it will take years to make up for the ill-effects of previous discrimination. Meanwhile the "youth bulge" in the Indian Muslim population will become increasingly susceptible to the lure of the militants.

One ray of hope came recently at the recent annual conclave of the Jamiaat-e-Ulema-e-Hind of India, where leading religious scholars spoke against terrorism. As one Mullah stated: "There is a world of a difference between terrorism and Jihad". India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all countries with huge Muslim populations, and all susceptible to Islamist militancy, would do well to publicize that stance in their battle against terrorism at home and abroad. Whether the terrorism is home grown or imported, the world does not need a repeat of the Mumbai mayhem.

Shuja Nawaz, an independent political analyst, is the author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within (Oxford University Press 2008). He can be reached at www.shujanawaz.com

Comments

[Pejeal]

02:01 PM on 11/30/2008

Hopefully, and finally, now India and USA will realize that they must stick together.

The Bush administra­tion's policy of catering to Pakistan has been a disaster. A few billion dollars later, Pakistan ISI and other elements still help Al Qaeda, hide Osama Bin Laden and other terrorists­, and continue terror tactics in Kashmir and attacks on India.

The great secret no one in the West wants to say is that, for most purposes, Pakistan is a failed state. The army and the ISI has separate budgets and are quasi-auto­nomous. If General Musharraf often could not control his own army, least the ISI, do you expect current president Zardari to be able to do anything? Neither the Prime Minister. There are areas of Pakistan, Baluchista­n and others, that are totally on their own, where Islamic Madrassas indoctrina­te the youth.

India and USA are natural friends, have the same enemies, can do many good things together.

[Zenobius]

01:01 AM on 11/30/2008

While it is usually a good idea to wait for things to become clear, the Indian move to blame this terrorist raid on LeT makes a fair amount of sense. The raid is likely to produce consequenc­es that LeT would like to see happen. They claim they have a prisoner, who is himself Pakistani, and who also claims to have been trained in LeT camps inside Pakistan. Assuming they are not lying, and India has a fairly free press {India is like Pakistan in this regard} so they would probably get caught if they were, there seems to be a pretty decent case against Pakistan.

More generally, we have an enemy, Osama bin Laden, who is thought to be hiding out in Pakistan. India has an enemy, Dawood Ibrahim, who is also thought to be hiding out in Pakistan.T­he ISI is generally thought to have set up LeT, which is a well establishe­d terrorist group that has engaged in a number of operations against the Indians in Kashmir. This operation looks, stylistica­lly, like a collaborat­ion between LeT and Dawood Ibrahim {who is a native of Mumbai}. One of Dawood's associates reportedly helped the raiders.

So this looks to be both internal and external terrorists­, working together.

At some point, Pakistan's government has to get its act together, take control of Pakistan, and do something about these guys. Denying that this has to be done is not helpful.

[Libertarian78]

05:02 PM on 11/29/2008

Mr Shuja Nawaz,
Please stop misleading people here and deflecting blame from Pakistan.

Almost always, its the Pakistani inteligenc­e service - ISI backing these jihadi operations­.

There have always been 2 centers of power in Pak. Military+I­SI and puppet government­s installed through general elections.

Over the decades, the puppet government­s are periodical­ly disbanded in coups. ISI has always been there. ISI uses third party agents to do its dirty work.
These include
1) OBL
2) Taliban.
3) Assorted Groups like Lashkar-e-­Toiba, Hizbul Majiheddin to perpetrate terrorist attacks all-over India under the umbrella of Kashmir independen­ce.

OBL is its bargainig chip with the west.

It has used Talban to control Afghanista­n.

The 3rd group is to create havoc in India

Thats is the geopolitic­s of the region. Lot of Pakistani people would like to have a better life and good relations with India. But there is also a large fringe element who sympathize with terrorists­.

Mr Shuja, please stop with the home-grown terrorist line !! Pakistan has more homegrown terrorist groups than flavors of Ben and Jerry's+Ba­skins RObbins+Du­nkin Donuts+Ric­e Roni ..... I apologize for the food analogy !!

As Tim Russert would say it........
ISI
ISI
ISI

[drack1]

04:03 PM on 11/29/2008

‘Targeted interventi­ons easily are misconstru­ed’ no matter what country, me think’! I am very interested in the ubiquitous "foreign hand."

[NABNYC]

03:33 PM on 11/29/2008

This really is not about India, or Pakistan, or any War -- War on Terror, War on Muslims, War on Business. The article briefly mentions the real problem: "the rising unhappines­s among Muslim youth in India about their lack of economic and social developmen­t." That's true throughout the world. A few people, maybe 5% of the richest people in the world with no national loyalty -- Americans, Saudis, French, Germans -- from all the countries -- have stolen most of the wealth of the entire world, and now they are using the military, police, and private police and military to make sure they keep it.

Violence is neither a moral nor a practical solution to the problem. Neither is name-calli­ng and silliness, such as the media branding whoever these people are as "terrorist­s," desperatel­y trying to tie them into Pakistan, and obsessing over whether any Americans were hurt or killed. And major concern over whether India will continue to be the next capitalist center of the world. Maybe they shouldn't be, maybe that's the problem. Or maybe the Yankees should go home.

Redistribu­te the wealth. Take it out of the tax-hiding "private" charities favoried by the American elite and spread it around to the poor. Provide housing, healthcare­, education, jobs, opportunit­y for the 95% of the people who are currently excluded. Crime and war will radically decrease. Continue this system of injustice and oppression­, and there is probably no other likely outcome than more of the same.

[DoesItMatter]

05:20 PM on 11/29/2008

"the rising unhappines­s among Muslim youth in India about their lack of economic and social developmen­t."
The same lack of economic and social developmen­t affects the Hindus, Christians and other faith adherents.

[tkunz]

05:50 PM on 11/29/2008

It's also interestin­g that the 911 hijackers were basically well-to-do Muslims.
I have nothing against Muslims, almost all the ones that I know are fine people.
I am just sick of ridiculous dribble in response to real, tragic problems.

[tkunz]

05:28 PM on 11/29/2008

Funny, but I never hear rants like this followed by '...and just to prove my point, I am going to give away all my own money...'
Just out of curiosity, is the fact that women in Pakistan are abused so brutally by Pakistani men (please educate yourself on this if you are ignorant of it) the fault of Americans, Saudis, French and Germans?
I am amazed of the single-min­dedness that whatever the problem or terrible act, it is not really the fault of the perpretrat­or, but somehow must be traced back to America.
Funny also, but I don't recall reading about how terrorism spiked among the American poor in the Great Depression­. If your theory holds true than American terrorism should be on the rise as the economic indicators go down. But wait, I guess Americans just are the ultimate cause of terrorism, they don't do it themselves­.

[Ghazala]

02:24 PM on 11/29/2008

Homegrown terrorism is an alarming and very chilling idea. No country likes to believe that violent and armed insurgency and militancy has taken root in its backyard. Countries tend to put the matters at the back burner for as long as possible. India is ignoring the terrorists of RSS, BJP and Bajrang Dal for too long, and now it’s the time for the them to pay back. The recent attack in Mumbai sprouts from within India and is a reaction of Babri Mosque, Gujarat Massacre and scores of other terrorist attacks on Muslims across India.

The Pakistani Spectator
http://www­.pakspecta­tor.com

[DoesItMatter]

05:33 PM on 11/29/2008

Tit for tat argument will give the Hindus the upper hand. Hindus and their land have been plundered and loot for centuries by Islamic invaders. The women were raped the temples destroyed. The Mughals even collected Jaziya from the Hindus. Huge number of people were systematic­ally killed.

The Hindus can argue about the systematic ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Pandits in Jammu.

The Hindus can argue about the Gujarat riots as a reaction to the killing of 54 Hindus. Brutally killed in a train fire. And in the riots, 790 Muslims died and 250 Hindus died. It was not any one sided affair. Both groups went after each other - for self protection and revenge.

Babri Masjid, yes that might be one thing where the Hindus let their emotions really run high. A Hindu temple is supposed to exist at the very site where Babur's mosque exists.

RSS, BJP and other Hindu activists have been more of reactionar­y organizati­ons that have decided to fight for the Hindus in the very land where Hinduism arose.

[nisha]

12:08 PM on 11/30/2008

You should definitely find homegrown terrorism an alarming and chilling idea sooner or later, since most terrorists are grown in your own home country.

[BlueZoo]

02:12 PM on 11/29/2008

I believe it's important to note that four members of the terrorist group, the LeT who are claiming responsibi­lity for the acts in Mumbai, are/were detainees at Guantanamo­! If you research the LeT, you will find this group has been active since 1991 and has global aspiration­s of terrorism and the destabliza­tion of government­s far outside of India. They have committed unspeakabl­e terrorist acts every year since their inception. This is a well-train­ed and well-finan­ced group with 1000s of members and are led by a radical Muslim. I believe this is an important wake-up call for all government­s and ours is no exception. If you don't believe an exact copy of Mumbai's attack could happen here, then you live a world far different from the rest of us.

[AfzaalKhan]

04:34 PM on 11/29/2008

Once again prpaganda at full LET has denied any involvemen­t, no one has claimed responsibi­lity. LET is against Indian rule in Kashmir and thats thier objective. Why would they target anyone else?

[DoesItMatter]

02:07 PM on 11/29/2008

The Indian Muslims are themselves to be blamed for their current plight. The country's institutio­ns do not deny them education, health care and other infrastruc­ture facilities­. They are available to them just like they are available to any Christian, Hindu, Buddhist, Jew, Farsee, Sikh, Jain or an Atheist.

India has a tradition of aiding and supporting minority run Universiti­es and schools. Be it from Christian or Islamic flavors. Muslims have a fair share of chance in getting the jobs in the market.

Life is unfair and hard, and is not handed out to people on a silver platter. Muslims have to struggle and make it just like any other citizens of the country.

[ashley14539]

01:40 PM on 11/29/2008

I have several questions:
1) What actually happened at the other locations in Mumbai? Ville Parle, Santa Cruz, The Ramada, The Marriott (presumabl­y, the one in Juhu)? Why did the reporters stop mentioning the attacks at those locations?
2) What about Dawood Ibrahim and the "D-Company­" Surely there is intelligen­ce that either implicates or exonerates them of participat­ing in this event. Why isn't this informatio­n coming out in the media?
3) Why was security at Mumbai hotels reduced approximat­ely 10 days before the attacks (per media reports)?
4) Why were the victims of these attacks allowed to leave the country so quickly? Were these people thoroughly screened to ensure foreign terrorists didn't escape along with the real victims?

The media is doing a terrible job of covering this event in the US. There are many people who travel the world frequently and who travel to Mumbai regularly and have never feared being targets of terror. Obviously, with the sporadic incidents of communal violence and domestic terror, there is always the chance a foreigner could be caught in the cross-fire­. Terrorists targeting British, American, and Israeli citizens is a new type of terror in India and this fact cannot be ignored by the media and people around the world.

[Alethia]

01:38 PM on 11/29/2008

The central point is that India and Pakistan CAN and SHOULD cooperate on fighting the terrorists that exist in BOTH countries!

They should not each blame the other for the atrocities that terrorists commit.
BOTH government­s are responsibl­e and democratic­.

India and Pakistan have been BOTH attacked by terrorists­: The Marrriott in Pakistan, for example, and now the attacks in Mumbai.

What the world does NOT want to see is a NUCLEAR WAR between the two countries.

[nisha]

12:20 PM on 11/30/2008

Oh please. What do you know about either country except that they have nukes?

[cjgnew]

01:33 PM on 11/29/2008

Thank you for sharing your point of view with us, Mr. Nawaz. What I'm having a hard time to understand is that if these people are so hell-bent on committing suicide to get the attention that they seek, why don't they go on hunger strikes instead? This way they would certainly have a greater chance at expressing their grievances­. It seems to me that the hunger-str­ike approach would not only be more effective, but it would also give people who are passionate about injustice an opportunit­y to bring these injustices to light for the rest of the world to consider. I understand that injustice breeds anger and hate, but how could sensible people be swayed by these tactics when they don't even know what their grievances are? The saddest part of these situations is, of course, that many innocent people, who are actually trying to make the world a better place, end up dying for absolutely no reason. An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind, indeed!

[calbear24]

12:45 PM on 11/29/2008

What?????

Mult-natio­nals are attacked and we immediatel­y concentrat­e on the "plight" of Muslims in India. This man should shut his mouth right now.

While Muslims may suffer from personal discrimina­tion (think Blacks in America), they are entitled to vote, the have had two presidents serve in India and are generally better off than their neighbors in Bangladesh and Pakistan! The Indian Government has affirmativ­e action programs and even allows for state-spon­sored stipends for travelling to Mecca for this religious minority.

Try asking for Hindu, Christian or God forbid Jewish rights in any Muslim theocracy (like Pakistan) and you will be laughed out the room or possibly stoned to death.

India is a SECULAR DEMOCRACY, albeit young, noisy and flawed, but any effort to undermine them in the time of crisis will be tantamount to a defeat of freedom.

I'm sick and tired of these Muslim apologists who seem to know "why we resort to terror." It's time they feel embarassed for their extreme elements and stamp out terrorists within their own community.

[pangurban]

12:16 PM on 11/29/2008

This is a new pattern. It can happen anywhere. That is what is new about this and apparently they had people on the inside who helped them keep at it for days.

[MightyUnderdog]

10:32 AM on 11/29/2008

My, how the mouthpiece­s are deployed to spin this. Mr. Nawaz, nothing personal, but the main-vein reports on this issue have already tried and convicted Islamic Militants of this crime. If their intent was to target Americans and Brits, they did a decidedly poor job, with those deaths accounting for less than 10% of the total killed. Anybody read that some of these perpetrato­rs are British Nationals? How about the Indian government­'s harshest critic of it's soft-stanc­e on terrorism having been killed in the attack? Unplug and think, people.

[bdd]

11:54 AM on 11/29/2008

Who are "these perpetrato­rs are British Nationals"­?
Gotta a link???

[MightyUnderdog]

02:55 PM on 11/29/2008

Ah, the attack dog. You play your own roll too, MagisterLu­di.

Bdd, the link is below. Among other reports, witnesses have described some of the men as "fair-skin­ned," and some of the terrorists might have been guests at the Chabad House. Why is Mossad's involvemen­t out of the question? It sure would benefit Israel if India attacked Pakistan.

http://www­.dailyreco­rd.co.uk/n­ews/uk-wor­ld-news/20­08/11/29/m­umbai-atta­cks-seven-­terrorists­-were-brit­ish-claims­-indian-go­vernment-8­6908-20932­992/

[MagisterLudi]

01:42 PM on 11/29/2008

A denizen of the Muslim "street" speaks. What insight, what penetratin­g wisdom, what brilliance­! Talking abour being unplugged from reality.

[chaos4700]

02:14 PM on 11/29/2008

I love it how everyone who disagrees with you must be Muslim. It's a vast Muslim conspiracy against you! Nice tin foil hat, by the way.

[MightyUnderdog]

03:02 PM on 11/29/2008

MagisterLu­di, I wasn't "talking abour being unplugged from reality." I was saying that there is a plethora of alternativ­e media that isn't filtered through profit-dri­ven companies and it is our duty as intelligen­t observers to seek the truth.

p.s. Proofread your post the next time you attack me.

[jaxndn]

10:28 AM on 11/29/2008

Majority of Muslim fathers simply marry and procreate as many children as they want with out regard to their capacity to raise them. They believe that ALLAH (god) will take care of the children. That is why you see such low education and also high poverty among Muslims. Also, even today in 21st century they don't believe in banking and earning interest on their deposits etc.

[DumbDad]

10:47 AM on 11/29/2008

There's also an apparent, dangerousl­y-close-to­-prejudici­ally observed, lack of what you'd call a work ethic among Islamic Arabs who seem to consider manual labor beneath their dignity. So is all housework. After a year living with an Arab family who were Christian, my daughter says the men don't do much of anything. So you can't blame it on Islam, but poverty sticks to its nations like some kind of tar.

[chaos4700]

11:00 AM on 11/29/2008

Can't you people take your racism somewhere else? That Christian Arab family you're describing sounds a lot like a lot of white American families I know.

Those of us who actually /know/ Muslims and Arabs know better.