Maximum Terror in Mumbai: Confusion Reigns

24 hours after they began, the coordinated terror attacks in Mumbai have produced scores of deaths and wounded and, potentially could end with even more deaths of innocent hostages. What is scarier though is the possibility that this incident may spell danger for India-Pakistan relations at a time when a much-needed thaw seems to be emerging. Confusion reigns in Mumbai, as the authorities try to understand the nature and the reason for these attacks.

Earlier unconfirmed reports on CNN that identified the MV Alpha as a Karachi-registered ship that allegedly carried the attackers proved to be incorrect. The Indian navy boarded the MV Alpha and confirmed that it was, in fact, Vietnamese-registered and had no connection with the attacks. The possibility remains that the ubiquitous "foreign hand" will be blamed for the terrorist actions. Unless there is strong evidence linking Pakistan to the attacks, India would be well advised not to fall back on that option.

Similar to the earlier attacks in New Delhi, chances are that this is a homegrown outfit. It may well be operating under a false flag of the "Deccan Mujahideen", a hitherto unknown group. But what adds to the confusion this time is that there was no statement from the attackers against the Indian political and social system and no demands were made. Rather, there was a focus on selecting British and American hostages. This may well point to the participation of an Islamist group with ties to militants operating in Kashmir or against the state inside Pakistan. Why?

Just one day before the attack, at a meeting in Islamabad of the Home Secretaries of India and Pakistan, an agreement was reached on a wide range of measures aimed at combating terrorism. According to Dawn of 25 November 2008:

"The two sides agreed for the first time to stop blaming each other for any untoward incident without evidence. Under the joint anti-terrorism mechanism, a two-member committee has been formed, comprising additional foreign secretaries of the two sides. The committee will exchange information about terrorists. The agreement on an anti-terrorism mechanism is being considered a big step for improvement of relations.

The resolve to enhance cooperation between their civilian investigation and security agencies -- Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) and India's Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) -- is another significant achievement made during the talks."

The Islamist militants fear that the increasing cooperation between India and Pakistan against terrorism and President Asif Ali Zardari's effusive words on warmer relations with India will leave them without a recruiting base in Pakistan. They would rather derail the nascent peace process between Pakistan and India, using, among other things, the rising unhappiness among Muslim youth in India about their lack of economic and social development.

To its credit, the Indian government set up a high-level committee two years ago to investigate the plight of the Muslims of India, who despite being close to 150 million strong have a disproportionately tiny share of India's burgeoning wealth. The Sachar Commission report of November 2006 confirmed what Indian Muslims had long known: they were well below national averages for education, skills development, employment, and economic opportunities. Some 38 per cent of Muslims in urban areas and 27 per cent in rural areas lived below the poverty line. But today, nearly two years after the release of that report, there is still talk about "targeted intervention" and many of the actions being discussed are still in the future tense. Even when these plans are implemented, at the notoriously slow pace of Indian bureaucracy, it will take years to make up for the ill-effects of previous discrimination. Meanwhile the "youth bulge" in the Indian Muslim population will become increasingly susceptible to the lure of the militants.

One ray of hope came recently at the recent annual conclave of the Jamiaat-e-Ulema-e-Hind of India, where leading religious scholars spoke against terrorism. As one Mullah stated: "There is a world of a difference between terrorism and Jihad". India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all countries with huge Muslim populations, and all susceptible to Islamist militancy, would do well to publicize that stance in their battle against terrorism at home and abroad. Whether the terrorism is home grown or imported, the world does not need a repeat of the Mumbai mayhem.

Shuja Nawaz, an independent political analyst, is the author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within (Oxford University Press 2008). He can be reached at www.shujanawaz.com

Comments

[nukemind]

This conflict has at its root, the Kashmir dispute. One way or another it ought to get resolved. It has fed militarism and religious fundamentalists. A quick solution would be to give that state a vote and allow the people to decide their fate (like we do in the US with Puerto Rico). Remain part of India, join Pakistan or independence from both OR even a partition of Kashmir with the south that identifies with India maintaining a status quo and the rest either independent or merged with Pakistan. This is the best solution the two parties can hope for OR they can continue down the path of violent (and often indirect) confrontation. All of the fundamentalist Muslim groups have at their core a beef with perceived injustices be it the groups in Palestine, Chechnya, Algeria, Iraq, Afghanistan etc. It is unfortunately outside the general paradigm to examine and address the issues that have given impetus to these perceptions and instead a preference for military confrontation has been the general rule and has not worked. Time for a change and I'm hoping, but not holding my breath, that the Obama administration will help usher in a new form of thinking.

[CaptD]

I think that OUTSIDE terrorists have focused on the Kashmir dispute as a "TOOL" to get India and Pakistan's Gov't & people to reduce cooperation, when people "hate" the terrorists win...

Consider:

Example 1. Finding an abandoned boat with cell phones aboard, with pakistani phone numbers on them; "smoking gun (no pun intended) or "planted gun"? My guess is planted gun"!

Example 2. Targeting Americans, British and Jews but in reality killing many, many Indians instead, again to me points to creating division between India and Pakistan as the "real" target.

Example 3. The Western news outlets were "used" to spread the terrorist action and in itself help increase tensions as they "guessed" at possible groups responsibl­e... Rather than report facts, they generated ill will and then built stories on those "new" issues which most of which will proved to be false!

[nukemind]

Indeed, there are numerous dimensions to this conflict as is so often the case. For one thing, terrorists like to put everything together as Muslims vs. non-Muslims, while ignoring that they are not on the same page as say the Muslim Kashmir Hurriat Conference that seeks peaceful secession from India (but is banned from taking part in elections). The Pakistanis, like the Indians have sought a military solution to 'liberate' their Muslim brethren and so really both sides have been highly selfish in this conflict. A plebiscite and then a demilitarized zone remains the only solution. Muslim UN troops could guard the likely independent Muslim Kashmir state, while Pakistan, if under US pressure won't think to attack their 'brothers'.

[orangepetal]

There are a multitude of perceived injustices no matter what race, religion or country people come from. There are a multitude of acceptable ways to communicate and effect positive change. Terror is not one of the ways, it is destructive and creates further mistrust. Most races (even whites) need to work hard to reap anything. God gave no preference to anybody. Two hundred years ago British children worked in coal mines. The Muslims / Arabs need to find acceptable ways to effect change and stop legitimizing terror which actually just increases their own suffering. Terror is the same as a violent crime and it will be very hard for anybody to sympathise with support for the root of the evil. Nobody really cares, there are many effective ways if you need to effect change. Stop legitimizing terror for your own sake now !

[nisha]

Nukemind, your name says it all. Please explain why targeting Israelis in Nariman House is all about Kashmir! Are you planning to provide the new state of Kashmir with a standing army? If not, please put your high-minded but nonsensical position to rest.

[nukemind]

It's all conflated. Please spare me your biased perspective. My view is not nonsensical unless you are either Indian or Pakistani and want to maintain territorial integrity. A UN manned force can keep out incursions until Kashmir has an army.

[bubbainca]

You know... there is a time to talk about religious inequities in Indian Society and there is a time to talk about combating Islamic terrorism. One would have thought by now it would be clear that the epicenter of Islamic terrorism is Pakistan today. Whether the government of the day (yup that's what it is .. "of the day") is complicit or not is really not relevant. The real question is - does the world have what it takes to root out this evil from Pakistan? Now that does not mean bombing villages at random, or even military aggression against Pakistan. The solution will probably be a combination of education, law enforcement, economic development and political stability. But surely, pretending that the hotbed of Islamic terrorism is not Pakistan will not help.

[HybridTea]

Shujar -

You say

"The possibility remains that the ubiquitous "foreign hand" will be blamed for the terrorist actions. Unless there is strong evidence linking Pakistan to the attacks, India would be well advised not to fall back on that option."

Will you be rewriting this article now that the terrorists are now traced to Pakistan even if we can all agree that the Pakistani government is struggling to free itself of assets such as Lashkar-e-Toiba that its intelligence agencies once aided and abetted. These terrorists are now a threat to the stability of Pakistan itself. Yet the Moslem intelligentsia such as yourself continue to explain terrorism away with expressions such as " Even when these plans are implemented, at the notoriously slow pace of Indian bureaucracy, it will take years to make up for the ill-effects of previous discrimination"

Really? Can you tell us with balanced statistics that Moslems in India are worse off than their brethren in Pakistan and Bangladesh - two Moslem offshoots of British India. Well here is what I gleaned from http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=bg&v=69:

Poverty Level:
Bangladesh - 45% (90% Moslem - Birthrate 2.8% - Literacy 46% )
India - 25% (15% Moslem - Birthrate 2.2% - Literacy 61%)
Pakistan - 24% (95% Moslem - Birthrate 2.7% - Literacy 54%

As my not so favorite President George Bush once said "you are either with us or against us".

[AfzaalKhan]

fine then we not with u why not u go ahead and quote some more bush " bring it on" we all know how that went. Y don;'t u look in ur own backyard, Samjhota express blast which killed many pakistanis was blamed on pakistan and so called Muslim extremists so was malegaoon terrorist act beside others and what happened it was an active indian Hindu army colonel who was behind those attack

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5107111.ece

When 100's of christians were killed recently in Orissa, India it was not muslim extremist but ur own home bread hindus extremist. What happened in Gujrat, a Govt report which showed the fire was accident yet ur Right wing hindu cheif minister had supervised teh systemic killing of muslims more then 1000 lives were lost.

I sincerly urge you to read sachar report in its entirety. All religions has elements that twist and use religion for thier own sick goals.

[BottomLine2008]

Uh, a lot of the terrorists are foreign. Many from Pakistan, some from Britain.

So much for your theory about home grown.

[SaulZ]

I agree with you, unless you are subliminally accusing that Pakistan is behind the attacks. If that is the case then do let us know and I will try to explain why is that not logically possible.

I believe Pakistani ambassador to the USA was at his finest when he told CNN that terrorists don't belong to any land. While they may be using land of a country, but they are not from the country. They don't have the interest of the country on their mind. They have their own sinister motives.

[chaos4700]

The main Pakistani government wouldn't be behind these attacks, I'll agree with you there. However, that doesn't preclude certain factions within Pakistan -- namely, their intelligence service -- from participating in this scheme in some capacity. I do suspect this was in part retaliation for the US' unilateral missile strikes in Pakistani territory. There's an awful lot of outrage in Pakistan about the fact that one of their "allies" is now bombing their people.

[nisha]

Nothing subliminal about it-- yes, plenty of people are accusing Pakistan of being responsible for the attacks. Please consider this an invitation to share your logic.

When your ambassador's finest moment consists of disclaiming responsibility on CNN for the many world class criminals your country has bred, your country doesn't seem to be offering the world anything but more terrorists.

[SaulZ]

A nice article, Shuja.

This incident has happened when Pakistani President was recently in New Delhi talking very realistically about possibilities of visa free entry for the citizens of two countries in the near future and that “there is an Indian in every Pakistani”. Pakistani foreign minister is actually in India on an official visit.

The neighboring Pakistan is witnessing suicide bombings on almost a weekly basis.

Who are the forces that are trying to destabilize India and Pakistan and not letting the two peoples come closer?

The new US administration needs to be creative in tackling terrorism. Surely bombing villages and pointing fingers at ‘Islamic Militants’ is not helping.

[InjunTrouble]

It is doubtful that this is an Indian home-grown terrorist group.

Indian Muslims have nothing against America or the British or even the Israelis. In fact their one hope is that the US gets involved in India's Hindu-Muslim relations beacuse otherwise they really have no leverage.

The targeting of Americans and the British suggests someone from outside of India, very likely the same group that was involve in the Pakistani Marriot bombing.

[Johnjlws]

On hearing the demographics of the "tarrarists," most of whom appear to be Pakistani, President Bush phoned Smt. Pratibha Devisingh Patil, President of India, and suggested she invade Cuba. He used his "Iraq initiative" as the example of a global war of terror on innocent, albeit screwed-up, countries.

Unfortunately, this completely false (made up) Bush plan makes about as much sense as our invasion did following 9-1-1 perpetrated by a majority of Saudis and apparently led by a Saudi, bin Laden, hiding at the time in Afghanistan.

We should have stayed focused on the cancer that represents this spineless vermin.

[go]

Hungry, desperate and hopeless people doing crazed things...w­ho would have predicted that?

[MagisterLudi]

They chance they were hungry, desperate and hopeless are close to zero.
Brainwashed and radicalized by their religion, may be.

[chaos4700]

Because what? You're an expert on terrorism or criminology? Spare us your rhetoric -- in all likelihood, these people were both desperate and hopeless AND brainwashed and radicalized. Content, well-to-do people don't sign up for suicide raids.

[robbie44]

Did you see how young those terrorist were? I think that might signal a new era of terriost tactics under a whole new stragedy and possibly idioligy?