Obama Stock Is Overpriced; Sell, Sell
Sell Obamas now. They are overpriced and the forward market has gone crazy. If he becomes president in two days, the bubble will burst, I guess in the spring of next year.
From the moment four years ago when I first heard of Barack Obama and read his youthful memoir, I sensed a president in the making. Like the young Nelson Mandela in South Africa, he seemed to hold the aura of incipient national leadership. His range of sympathies, his oratory, his intelligence, his energy marked him out from the run. His embodiment of the American dream was astonishing.
Today the outside world, much of it with a direct and painful interest in American policy, wants Obama to win, by leads of 20 to 60 per cent. These people have no vote. But the narrower electorate of the United States appears also to want Obama to win, albeit by a smaller margin. The world prefers him chiefly because he is black, the latter chiefly because he is not Republican.
Neither reason is robust. To most non-Americans, black is still code for being apart from the American establishment. Any visitor these days to Europe, to Africa or to the muslim world is shocked by the depth of antipathy to America. It is beyond ideology, a visceral, often racial aversion, unrelated to any personal attachment to individual Americans or their much-envied way of life. The ugly American is reborn.
Yet the same visitor is impressed by how often he is assured that an Obama presidency would "change everything". The reason is not that Obama is anti-war or pro-Palestinian or left or right wing. It is that his origins render him the one thing he most vociferously denies, not an ordinary American.
To this world, Obama is a supposed representative of an oppressed class, however much his speech, manner and career bespeak the opposite. He is black and his name is confirmation enough. He symbolises the end of the wasp ascendancy. The reason why his candidacy still discomforts many Americans is the reason the world craves it, that Obama is somehow unreal. He is a meta-American. It is why there will be an awful unleashing of grief and fury if he is not elected.
Yet Obama is real, not just a human being but a politician. In office he knows he must do more than make fine speeches and castigate the government of the day. He must grapple with the wreckage of a world economy whose collapse is in large part due to the mismanagement of American finance, from which as a senator he cannot altogether escape blame.
He must restore credit to markets and confidence to commerce. He must bring health and welfare to a country whose poor will seem ever more "third world" as unemployment bites in the coming months. To millions of Americans he will seem as a messiah. There are millions whom he can only disappoint.
Abroad, this leader would have to end not one war but two, and bring sanity to an American diplomacy that is chaotic in an arc of instability from eastern Europe to the Himalayas. The anticipation that he will be a harbinger of peace, friendship and economic salvation is probably greater than for any American since Roosevelt. The burden of expectation is awesome and unrealistic.
The qualities of charisma and rhetoric that Obama brings to this task might be a match for it. His declared policies are not. His desire to disengage from Iraq is not appreciably different from that of the Bush administration and the Iraqi government. On the other hand, his clearly expressed wish to beef up the war in Afghanistan is reckless.
Obama has approved the bombing of targets inside Pakistan (and presumably now Syria) and proposed invasion to "secure" that country's nuclear arsenal. He has backtracked on compromise with Iran and done nothing to suggest an end to the macho provocation of Russia.
At home Obama would appear from his statements and voting records to be a conventional Democrat, essentially tax, spend and protect with tariffs. While some of this is America's business, the world economy needs a protectionist America like a bullet in the head. American markets open to world goods are vital for recovery, as is America's active participation in the easing of world trade. Obama has shown no sign of accepting this.
On all these fronts there is a more alarming prospect. It is that a Democratic president, even with an overwhelmingly Democratic congress, must beware of seeming soft or dovish or "appeasing terror". Such is politics that the more liberal the man the more illiberal he can feel compelled to behave, as was the case with Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. Obama has yet to indicate a retreat from the patriot acts or the language of George Bush's war on terror.
Any modern leader parrots the language of change. Obama proclaims himself the embodiment of a revolution in American public life. Yet his record is anything but radical. He even supports the right to bear arms. Were it not for his colour, he would be a candidate running on a conventional Democratic ticket, with few policies more constructive than those of his opponent, John McCain, on how America might now escape from its many predicaments.
None of this is an argument for not voting for Obama. In present-day Washington even modest competence might seem revolutionary. But democratic leadership is like Icarus. Its wings melt as soon as it flies close to the sun. Obama is flying close indeed.
The instant message that an Obama victory would flash round the world is not in doubt. It would transform and refresh America's image, exhilarating its friends everywhere. It would restore to that country the reins of global leadership so missing in the era of Republican xenophobia. It would be an utterly good thing.
The next message could be very different. The skills that Obama has brought to his campaign are essentially personal and organisational, not the superhuman ones that will be required of any occupant of the White House in the immediate future. The higher the anticipation, the more crippling will be the effort needed to meet it, and the greater the fall if it is not met.
The prospect of a failed Obama presidency sometime in 2009/10, whether by his doing or those of circumstance, is heartbreaking to contemplate. It would more than undo the gains secured by his election and devastate the cause he is seen as representing. The least his supporters can do is not raise the bar of expectation too high.
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I agree. Obama should just resign the presidency now, before he's won it. There's no point in prolonging the agony of a four-year Obama term.
Seriously, how about if we see how the election pans out before we start enumerating the many potential failures of an Obama presidency.
"The world prefers him chiefly because he is black, the latter chiefly because he is not Republican. "
That statement makes me skeptical of everything else you say.
It is precisely the high expectations we have for him - and he for us - that give him a chance to succeed. Nothing worthwhile will be accomplished by setting our sights lower. We have big problems to solve and it will take a leader like Obama to get us all to work together and solve them.
The way he's handled his campaign is a good example of the kind of manager and leader he'll be.
True. The world prefers him because he's such a fresh air of intelligence and reason on the scene - they've been so appalled and puzzled for so long about our choices. This is very exciting to people who have for so long thought we were basically nuts - and our choices end up affecting them very profoundly.
Do you think that maybe you might want let the guy be elected before you throw him out?
Preditction: Obama will be the kind of president that Americans require him to be.
If Americans don't CHANGE and participate and closely watch both Obama and each member of Congress AFTER the election is over, we are guaranteed to get get more of the same.
The truth is that if we want any change, it doesn't matter who is in charge unless we get involved and watch everything that goes on in government until it is back under the rightful control of the citizens.
We will get what we demand and if our leaders don't deliver real results we must hold them accountable and vote in news ones at the earliest opportunity.
We must demand publicly funded elections to get the special interests out of our seats at the table. We must demand peace. We must demand reasonable healthcare like all other civilized nations have. We must demand better education. We must demand fiscal responsibility, etc. The list goes on..
I've got a toaster at home that would have done a better
job than Bush. And Obama is smarter than a toaster.
excellent point.
i'm looking forward to the real citizen participation.
Oh ye of little faith
This majority country is ready to struggle ad fight for Obama
Thats a lot and quite more than the last two administrations had
Go Obama/Biden
And your point is what?
That Obama could fail to live up to expectations?
Sure, he could "fail," but at least he will try to do things that need to get done and he does have the capacity to do it if it is possible. Do you think we are all just worshipping him here? There are so many positives that will come out of his election that we can only guess about.
It will be hard. He knows that. We know that. But there IS a reason for all this happening right here and right now. Why don't you write back later and tell us how it feels to wake up in the morning knowing you don't have an idiot and a bunch of criminals running the country. Works for me.
Thanks for the brilliant insight.
Barack Obama is a constitutional scholar. When was the last time we had one of them in the Oval Office?
I'm glad Obama is black, because I think it will open some minds, show some young people in the US that maybe all the platitudes about anyone becoming president might actually have a nugget of truth at the core, and because it might help people in other parts of the world see that maybe we aren't so predictable and easy to demonize as they thought--because having a black president breaks a very old and dusty mold. But that's not why I'm voting for him--I'm voting for him because he is by far the best candidate we've produced in the last 25 years. And he's a constitutional scholar.
Absolutely! I'd like to add that the Bush/Cheney administration has slowly eroded our democracy, and it will take a constitutional scholar to unravel the gordian knot they've created.
I support Obama because I hear the code words of "mixed economy", that is, the end of free-trade (i.e., labor arbitraging and off-shoring). To understand where Obama is coming from and where he will lead us, we need to keep in mind that since Nixon, Republicans have been trying to dismantle the mixed economy which was designed to prevent another Great Depression. This includes their various attempts at trying to dismantle Social Security Insurance that was first conceived by President Teddy Roosevelt. To sum it up, Obama is going to take us back to the future of what works -- and jettison what history teaches us does not work.
We already know his policies are doomed for failure because they have already been tried with devestating results. How long before the MSM starts to question why things are getting worse and not better, or will they give BO a pass, as they already have done?
When was the last time this nation committed to a massive program of renewable energy development and what were its disastrous results? How disastrous was the 39% marginal rate during the Clinton era? How is universal health care in this nation going to make the current state of medical care (most costly in the industrialized world, but ranked near the bottom in quality of care for all its citizens) more disastrous? I don't expect an Obama administration to instantly solve all of the crises facing our nation, but it will be a vast improvement over the corrupt, incompetent and misdirected government we've had to endure over the last 8 years.
What planet have you been living on the last 40 years? The only economic policy that has been tried and failed is supply-side trickle-down economics. It was tried under Reagan, and now again under Bush. It has failed both times, and this last time MISERABLY!
It's just stunning to me that some people continue to believe in this REAL fairy tale, trusting that giving all our money to the wealthy will somehow enrich the midle class.
Mr. Jenkins is far ahead of himself here. We are the " Bubble Bursters ". Tomorrow when we elect Obama for President, POP.....
Well, here it is. He hasn't even won yet, and people want to discuss the crash and burn. Well, the reason I voted Obama is because we share a lot in our worldview. He is smart, calm, confident. Maybe it won't go as well as I hope. I know he's not Moses, and the seas won't part. However, he's looking the right direction; into the future, and that's where I'm looking. I have two girls, and we are not rich; we're in the middle, the ever-shrinking middle.
I want them to feel hopeful about the future as I did. Obama is selling hope and I'm buying, but the rest is up to us - Americans. I think we know that. Obama has told us that we have to do it together, and that sounds good to me. The party that advocated torture of other human beings does not deserve another term. The Republicans have blighted our country's reputation and thumbed their noses at the world. They need a time out. After that, well, we'll see....
Excellent points
I fail to see the point of this article. Presented in dry, logical rations, one would think it's a fact-backed research paper that I might be able to consume in good faith. With unsupported opinions that Obama is "reckless" and insinuating that once he is in Office his wings will melt, this felt more like Madame Zelda's Fear Filled Daily Horrorscope than anything with pith and value. Irresponsible. We've had just about enough of that from the righties, now we must tolerate it here?
One of your comments,sir,that,"The world prefers him(Obama) chiefly because he is Black" -is an outrage! The world prefers him because he portrays a steady leadership with a steady hand on the nation's rudder!....Unlike his opponent and the current POTUS!!
This is the reason I have been Hoping Obama looses. He has done what needed to be done; but I rather the GOP clean up their own mess. I rather the evangelicals run us into the ground.
But all that wont happen, and I feel very sorry for Obama. Maybe he does have some of Mandela's Mettle; we'll see. But I guarantee the stiffest opposition he'll face when in the white house will be from Democrats.
I hope am just being pessimistic.
I understand how you feel, but I don't believe this country can survive 4 years of the GOP trying to "clean up their own mess".
Yes, you are just being pessimistic.
Your pessimism is unfounded and as we hurl ourselves towards the future, there is no one person I would rather have leading us than Obama. Evangelicals? Come on man.....
You can't clean up this mess with more of the same, you can only make it worse.
It's is true we need to be careful not to raise our expectations too high, especially since the Republicans will start undermining the Obama presidency on Nov. 5, 2008.
But, it is false to assume he is not capable of transforming the American horizon.
This country is suffering a sickness that needs a good dose of humanity. McCain does not understand the word. Obama does. Reason enough for true "faith" in the near extinct goodness of the people of this country!
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