Obama Stock Is Overpriced; Sell, Sell

Sell Obamas now. They are overpriced and the forward market has gone crazy. If he becomes president in two days, the bubble will burst, I guess in the spring of next year.

From the moment four years ago when I first heard of Barack Obama and read his youthful memoir, I sensed a president in the making. Like the young Nelson Mandela in South Africa, he seemed to hold the aura of incipient national leadership. His range of sympathies, his oratory, his intelligence, his energy marked him out from the run. His embodiment of the American dream was astonishing.

Today the outside world, much of it with a direct and painful interest in American policy, wants Obama to win, by leads of 20 to 60 per cent. These people have no vote. But the narrower electorate of the United States appears also to want Obama to win, albeit by a smaller margin. The world prefers him chiefly because he is black, the latter chiefly because he is not Republican.

Neither reason is robust. To most non-Americans, black is still code for being apart from the American establishment. Any visitor these days to Europe, to Africa or to the muslim world is shocked by the depth of antipathy to America. It is beyond ideology, a visceral, often racial aversion, unrelated to any personal attachment to individual Americans or their much-envied way of life. The ugly American is reborn.

Yet the same visitor is impressed by how often he is assured that an Obama presidency would "change everything". The reason is not that Obama is anti-war or pro-Palestinian or left or right wing. It is that his origins render him the one thing he most vociferously denies, not an ordinary American.

To this world, Obama is a supposed representative of an oppressed class, however much his speech, manner and career bespeak the opposite. He is black and his name is confirmation enough. He symbolises the end of the wasp ascendancy. The reason why his candidacy still discomforts many Americans is the reason the world craves it, that Obama is somehow unreal. He is a meta-American. It is why there will be an awful unleashing of grief and fury if he is not elected.

Yet Obama is real, not just a human being but a politician. In office he knows he must do more than make fine speeches and castigate the government of the day. He must grapple with the wreckage of a world economy whose collapse is in large part due to the mismanagement of American finance, from which as a senator he cannot altogether escape blame.

He must restore credit to markets and confidence to commerce. He must bring health and welfare to a country whose poor will seem ever more "third world" as unemployment bites in the coming months. To millions of Americans he will seem as a messiah. There are millions whom he can only disappoint.

Abroad, this leader would have to end not one war but two, and bring sanity to an American diplomacy that is chaotic in an arc of instability from eastern Europe to the Himalayas. The anticipation that he will be a harbinger of peace, friendship and economic salvation is probably greater than for any American since Roosevelt. The burden of expectation is awesome and unrealistic.

The qualities of charisma and rhetoric that Obama brings to this task might be a match for it. His declared policies are not. His desire to disengage from Iraq is not appreciably different from that of the Bush administration and the Iraqi government. On the other hand, his clearly expressed wish to beef up the war in Afghanistan is reckless.

Obama has approved the bombing of targets inside Pakistan (and presumably now Syria) and proposed invasion to "secure" that country's nuclear arsenal. He has backtracked on compromise with Iran and done nothing to suggest an end to the macho provocation of Russia.

At home Obama would appear from his statements and voting records to be a conventional Democrat, essentially tax, spend and protect with tariffs. While some of this is America's business, the world economy needs a protectionist America like a bullet in the head. American markets open to world goods are vital for recovery, as is America's active participation in the easing of world trade. Obama has shown no sign of accepting this.

On all these fronts there is a more alarming prospect. It is that a Democratic president, even with an overwhelmingly Democratic congress, must beware of seeming soft or dovish or "appeasing terror". Such is politics that the more liberal the man the more illiberal he can feel compelled to behave, as was the case with Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. Obama has yet to indicate a retreat from the patriot acts or the language of George Bush's war on terror.

Any modern leader parrots the language of change. Obama proclaims himself the embodiment of a revolution in American public life. Yet his record is anything but radical. He even supports the right to bear arms. Were it not for his colour, he would be a candidate running on a conventional Democratic ticket, with few policies more constructive than those of his opponent, John McCain, on how America might now escape from its many predicaments.

None of this is an argument for not voting for Obama. In present-day Washington even modest competence might seem revolutionary. But democratic leadership is like Icarus. Its wings melt as soon as it flies close to the sun. Obama is flying close indeed.

The instant message that an Obama victory would flash round the world is not in doubt. It would transform and refresh America's image, exhilarating its friends everywhere. It would restore to that country the reins of global leadership so missing in the era of Republican xenophobia. It would be an utterly good thing.

The next message could be very different. The skills that Obama has brought to his campaign are essentially personal and organisational, not the superhuman ones that will be required of any occupant of the White House in the immediate future. The higher the anticipation, the more crippling will be the effort needed to meet it, and the greater the fall if it is not met.

The prospect of a failed Obama presidency sometime in 2009/10, whether by his doing or those of circumstance, is heartbreaking to contemplate. It would more than undo the gains secured by his election and devastate the cause he is seen as representing. The least his supporters can do is not raise the bar of expectation too high.

Comments

[research]

Obama was not my first choice.

Now I think Obama has what it takes to be an extraordinarily leader.

I don't see the value of your pessimistic worry.

[WorldGriot]

I am a passionate Obama-ite. But I agree with you assessment that we expect far too much from him and he will never be able to deliver it all. I admit to that expectation myself and so much check myself from time to time and ask, what exactly, do I truly expect him to achieve? When I ask myself that question, I find that the question must be refined. Because Obama never said, yes I can, he said, yes WE can! His entire message has been to emphasize the WE. Your point is well taken, When disappointment is the only direction you can travel because expectations are far too GOD like, then disappointment is what you will get even when a magnificent job is done viz a viz all those preceding him. I hope you are wrong but I see your point.

[redsongia]

Ummm. I think most Americans want him because he's smart and well informed, and seems like a tireless worker. We are not voting for him so we can admire how lovely he looks on TV the next 4 years.

[robXdion]

The author sounds like a British Gerald Ferraro.

[smithr17]

If the Candidates are stock then McCain is Lehman Brothers.

[Swizz]

"The world prefers him chiefly because he is black, the latter chiefly because he is not Republican."

Wrong and wrong. I do not live in the United States and my wife and I are both cheering for Obama... Because he's African-American? No. You see, in our world, it's really about who the best candidate is based on substance, ideas and proposed policy -- and that candidate is, without a doubt, Barack Obama.

So the point really is: Does the rest of the world believe it is time for Obama to be president? Absolutely. Does it help that he's black? Debatable. Does it hurt? Absolutely not.

Now, to assume that any Democratic candidate would win the election this year on the basis that they are "not Republican" is a fallacy -- we've seen Americans renew their vote for W in 2004 when the country was already in shambles (and stolen election or not, it happened). The above statement is slightly dangerous because it leaves out the "even though he's black" that is meant to follow at the end.

"The world prefers him chiefly because he is black, the latter chiefly because he is not Republican (even though he's black)."

To insist he road ahead will be one of the most difficult ever faced by an American president is redundant. Obama has shown he's ready to lead and ready to confront these challenges. And the world believes he will do so admirably.

[StopNThink]

Sadly, Mr Jenkins is right on most things.

Americans are soft (unwilling to make tough choices and suffer short-term) and are suckers for the "something for nothing" sales pitch.

In 3 years the 2012 election campaign will gear up and Repubs will be proming painless escape from the recession the US will still be mired in, and shaking with outrage over whatever tough measures Obama will have to institute. That will make the electorate easy prey - many fell for Joe the Plumber.

Similarly, any logical foriegn policy moves will be painted as weak and pro-terror, anti-America, anti-Israel, whatever it takes.

This means Obama will have to do very little, or do it very fast.

Just the fact that he is human will disappoint those expecting a savior.

[bice710]

"The world prefers him chiefly because he is black" ??? That is a foolish and insulting statement. The world prefers him because he has an inclusive and open-minded world view. The world prefers him because he would rather engage in diplomacy than use force. The world prefers him because he understands that America needs to restore its moral standing to be a leader, not rule with military might and engage in invasions of sovereign nations and torture. What exactly does black have to do with any of that?

[IndyReader]

Thank you, bice710!

[4real]

I think the Republicans have been the ones really pushing the Obama as the savior storyline more so than his supporters.

I think Obama supporters understand the mess that Obama is inheriting but he has the ability to rally the American people to be active and participate something that has been missing for the last eight years.

If Obama wins he will have a tough four years but I believe he has leadership ability and intellect to clean up the mess that Bush has made.

[phughez]

Got hope, Simon?

[LAR1969]

I think we ought to wait until tomorrow to rejoice and start putting forth pessimistic and cynical opinions. Obama has an election to win before he can begin to disappoint us in the many ways the author of this article has laid out. And there's nothing really original here, either. We've been hearing crappy predictions of how Obama will let us all down come January.

Finally, I disagree with the reasons given for why so many people are voting for Obama. It would be nice if authors dug a bit deeper than, "Because he's black." Yeah, yeah - so insightful and yet so absolutely wrong.

[tangie]

Most people who aim for the ground inevitably hit it.

When you aim for the moon, you probably don't, but at least you have a chance. If you aim for the ground, you ensure your success.

I'd rather aim for the sky.

[starboymikey]

So vote McCain for the disappointment you've come to expect, vs. Obama, for the disappointment that will break your heart.

Okay, I'm voting McCain. Someone has finally convinced me.

[LAR1969]

You've captured the sentiment. The author has encouraged us to set the bar low - as if it's not buried 6 feet under as it is.

[Matt7]

"The least his supporters can do is not raise the bar of expectation too high."

Is that how America -- not to mention kids in the inner city -- got "dumbed down" in the first place? To not expect too much so that neither of you will be disappointed?

Thank you for your caution not to over-expect or "raise the bar TOO high" (a slightly different thing than lowering it). But perhaps we've been living in "hunker down, cover your heads" mode for too long.

I rather cling to the JFK analogy of striving to land a man on the moon, even though it's never been done before, and fully expecting to do it.

I'm not advocating pie-in-the-sky daydreams, or deifying Obama and expecting HIM to 'save us all'. But if he leads, through his own gumption, good advice and counsel; and we roll up our sleeves and get to work, together with fellow Americans (and even others around the world) -- WE CAN DO THIS!

I'm in.

[cre8ive]

I'm buying!

Hey, if the stock market performed as steadily and consistently as Obama has, we'd still have our pensions, 401K's, and our children's college funds.