Obama Stock Is Overpriced; Sell, Sell

Sell Obamas now. They are overpriced and the forward market has gone crazy. If he becomes president in two days, the bubble will burst, I guess in the spring of next year.

From the moment four years ago when I first heard of Barack Obama and read his youthful memoir, I sensed a president in the making. Like the young Nelson Mandela in South Africa, he seemed to hold the aura of incipient national leadership. His range of sympathies, his oratory, his intelligence, his energy marked him out from the run. His embodiment of the American dream was astonishing.

Today the outside world, much of it with a direct and painful interest in American policy, wants Obama to win, by leads of 20 to 60 per cent. These people have no vote. But the narrower electorate of the United States appears also to want Obama to win, albeit by a smaller margin. The world prefers him chiefly because he is black, the latter chiefly because he is not Republican.

Neither reason is robust. To most non-Americans, black is still code for being apart from the American establishment. Any visitor these days to Europe, to Africa or to the muslim world is shocked by the depth of antipathy to America. It is beyond ideology, a visceral, often racial aversion, unrelated to any personal attachment to individual Americans or their much-envied way of life. The ugly American is reborn.

Yet the same visitor is impressed by how often he is assured that an Obama presidency would "change everything". The reason is not that Obama is anti-war or pro-Palestinian or left or right wing. It is that his origins render him the one thing he most vociferously denies, not an ordinary American.

To this world, Obama is a supposed representative of an oppressed class, however much his speech, manner and career bespeak the opposite. He is black and his name is confirmation enough. He symbolises the end of the wasp ascendancy. The reason why his candidacy still discomforts many Americans is the reason the world craves it, that Obama is somehow unreal. He is a meta-American. It is why there will be an awful unleashing of grief and fury if he is not elected.

Yet Obama is real, not just a human being but a politician. In office he knows he must do more than make fine speeches and castigate the government of the day. He must grapple with the wreckage of a world economy whose collapse is in large part due to the mismanagement of American finance, from which as a senator he cannot altogether escape blame.

He must restore credit to markets and confidence to commerce. He must bring health and welfare to a country whose poor will seem ever more "third world" as unemployment bites in the coming months. To millions of Americans he will seem as a messiah. There are millions whom he can only disappoint.

Abroad, this leader would have to end not one war but two, and bring sanity to an American diplomacy that is chaotic in an arc of instability from eastern Europe to the Himalayas. The anticipation that he will be a harbinger of peace, friendship and economic salvation is probably greater than for any American since Roosevelt. The burden of expectation is awesome and unrealistic.

The qualities of charisma and rhetoric that Obama brings to this task might be a match for it. His declared policies are not. His desire to disengage from Iraq is not appreciably different from that of the Bush administration and the Iraqi government. On the other hand, his clearly expressed wish to beef up the war in Afghanistan is reckless.

Obama has approved the bombing of targets inside Pakistan (and presumably now Syria) and proposed invasion to "secure" that country's nuclear arsenal. He has backtracked on compromise with Iran and done nothing to suggest an end to the macho provocation of Russia.

At home Obama would appear from his statements and voting records to be a conventional Democrat, essentially tax, spend and protect with tariffs. While some of this is America's business, the world economy needs a protectionist America like a bullet in the head. American markets open to world goods are vital for recovery, as is America's active participation in the easing of world trade. Obama has shown no sign of accepting this.

On all these fronts there is a more alarming prospect. It is that a Democratic president, even with an overwhelmingly Democratic congress, must beware of seeming soft or dovish or "appeasing terror". Such is politics that the more liberal the man the more illiberal he can feel compelled to behave, as was the case with Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. Obama has yet to indicate a retreat from the patriot acts or the language of George Bush's war on terror.

Any modern leader parrots the language of change. Obama proclaims himself the embodiment of a revolution in American public life. Yet his record is anything but radical. He even supports the right to bear arms. Were it not for his colour, he would be a candidate running on a conventional Democratic ticket, with few policies more constructive than those of his opponent, John McCain, on how America might now escape from its many predicaments.

None of this is an argument for not voting for Obama. In present-day Washington even modest competence might seem revolutionary. But democratic leadership is like Icarus. Its wings melt as soon as it flies close to the sun. Obama is flying close indeed.

The instant message that an Obama victory would flash round the world is not in doubt. It would transform and refresh America's image, exhilarating its friends everywhere. It would restore to that country the reins of global leadership so missing in the era of Republican xenophobia. It would be an utterly good thing.

The next message could be very different. The skills that Obama has brought to his campaign are essentially personal and organisational, not the superhuman ones that will be required of any occupant of the White House in the immediate future. The higher the anticipation, the more crippling will be the effort needed to meet it, and the greater the fall if it is not met.

The prospect of a failed Obama presidency sometime in 2009/10, whether by his doing or those of circumstance, is heartbreaking to contemplate. It would more than undo the gains secured by his election and devastate the cause he is seen as representing. The least his supporters can do is not raise the bar of expectation too high.

Comments

[cre8ive]

I think there are some people with unreasonably high expectations, but perhaps your expectations are unreasonably low. You see a black man who gives a good speech, and who hasn't thought past November 4. You see a world of silly people who have decided that the only reason to want Obama in office is because "chocolate" is the flavor of the month.

You are the most dangerous kind of citizen. Assuming Obama becomes the next President, you don't discourage the army and tell them not to think too much of their general as he's riding out to do battle.

Plans aside (and I support his over McCain's), I am not voting for an ideal or image. I'm voting for a reasonable, thinking, confident, intelligent, very normal undoubtedly fallible MAN. He is a proven leader, is not afraid to surround himself with creative thinkers, and secure enough to seek out those with more experience. He is responsive, not reactive, and passionate without being driven by his emotions.

I expect him to work hard. I expect him to weather storms, criticism, and more economic meltdown. I expect it to take a toll on him. I expect him to disappoint his wife and children and his country from time to time, and I expect him to be surprised by how hard being president really is.

Then I expect him to surprise us all...in a good way. I hope when he does, you will be anxious to write about that too.

[susanlc]

Good analysis, but don't be such a drama queen, dude. We've had enough drama for a while. Everybody wants to jump on the shock and get-attention bandwagon, it seems.

[Georgiamitch]

talk about a defeatist.­..geez

[Sparty1]

Simon, you make it seem as if no one voting for Obama know a damn thing about how government works. We know that Obama, nor McCain, can come in and change the country with the sweep of a pen. But I tell you what, in observing Obama and his campaign I'd much rather his team at the helm than the McCain camp. We do know that Obama is human and oh my he happens to be black, but this country does need and is ready for a change from the status quo.

[laneamanda]

Mr. Jenkins,
I think that if you were able to write this column, you just don't get it. Obama has never said that he is going to fix the country. He is serving to inspire people to get involved in their communities and their government. The man is brilliant, and he has given up what could have been a very lucrative career in order to help ordinary people and to make us all believe in the goodness of humanity and each other.

I just think that Obama supporters would never agree with the drivel that you have written Mr. Jenkins, because we all realize we would be betting against ourselves. We can make a difference, but we have to believe we can make a difference and put aside the cynical talk and the unconstructive criticism.

I just think you don't get it. I hope you do some day, because the real Obama supporter knows that it is not Barack, but all of us who need to solve the problems of our country.

[JohnShank]

Yeah, Obama has 'given up' a heck of a lot to possibly be the most powerful individual in the world. I am sure that was a tremendous sacrifice for him. I mean, imagine, being in the seat of power for four years! Cheney, (who is a dou. che bag) quit his multi-million dollar a year job to be Vice President! So, you can imagine that perhaps President would be even better!

[cilia]

Mr. Jenkins has missed something critical in Obama's message. While it may seem simplistic, it is we, the American electorate, who must do the work. The type of leadership that Obama represents involves empowering those whom he would "lead." If we refuse to take up this mantle, then there is no doubt, he and we will "fail." How do we do this? Remain engaged, participate, listen to those with whom we disagree, decide to work together for the common good. The key word being "work." It will take time.

[KOisGod]

We've watched Bush and his crew screw this country in every way imaginable­....I just feel we need to at least give Obama and the Dems a chance to show the world what can happen when some adults take charge. America is frustrated, angry and exhausted from the politics of division and smears. We need visionary leadership that honestly will explain how we move forward. The party is over, time to clean up and put back the furniture where it belongs.

Here's to the future - here's to having our country back!

[amluvinit2]

But, you forget what he has in a VP, and an advisor. You also forget what the trend is in the naiton. Although I agree that it is going to take a superhero to fix what got broken over the past eight years, we have a great team on board. But, if anybody can unite us, because it is going to take the whole nation helping do their part, it is Obama/ Biden. McCain/ Palin have clearly demonstrated what they can do to divide a nation. It has to be a leader the people trust to lead them in the right direction. Of course it is going to mean some sacrifices amongst the American people, but sacrifices under the right leadership that the people will gladly give.

[orangemom]

Obama may not be super-human, but he is far better than the sub-human we've had in the White House for the last 8 years. What's your problem? Keep hope alive!

[guyfrombrooklyn]

I never thought Obama would be a savior.

Community Organizer is a better description. Who better to take the reigns of this nation, and organize it, guide it and mold it into better shape than what it is now?

McCain? Palin?

Yes his goals are lofty. His ideas are somewhat GRANDIOSE. This country needs some incredulous thought. At the worst of times, we need to think on the big picture level. When the market levels off, (it will) people will forget, and think of it as an event, rather than a sign. When the economy recovers (always does), people need rationale, rather than back to spending as usual. If people's paychecks get back to somewhat stable, nobody will care of healthcare initiative­...until they get sick.

If we are to end the preoccupation with the war machine, who will be best to lead us there? Those who think sacrifice of troops will be the only answer? Or those who know that the 20th century bomb, skirmish and hold techniques don't apply in many situations anymore.

Try Obama /Biden. A candidate that sees the direction of the country is scary, not only for us, but more for our future generations.

[earthandfire]

I cannot present "world voice" in any means, but as a non-citizen in the US, I see things a bit differently than Mr. Jenkins do.
You say Obama's popularity in the world is not because of the wars, which he is against the one from the start, but because he is not typical American (suppressed race as black). If that is the case, you would see the same reaction with Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton if one of them made it to the point Obama has done.
No, I don't think so. The reason the world has been so angry about the US is almost solely because of the unjust war in Iraq (not much about Afghanistan). Unilateral bullish foreign policy and morally unjust America is the base of the hate. Obama shows clearest difference from it.
In the US, patriotic factor divides this issue and that is why until economy is in peril Obama didn't show clear lead. World's view exactly is the same as Americans' except it's not fogged by phony patriotism that Republicans have been imposing.
It would be the same effect if he was white with the same message, intelligence, character, etc. Kerry didn't have such enthusiasm in 2004 because was for the war before against it. That reduced the level of enthusiasm, still you should remember what British newspaper headline said on the day America elected Bush again in 2004.

[MourningDood]

Europe hated America for intervening in Bosnia. Europe opposes action in Darfur because the US supports it.

This goes far beyond Iraq and Bush.

[noamjunior]

you sell - ill buy
such a simplistic rationale is in no way convincing

[BillyMae]

Unfortunately, he is inheriting the worst mess this country has ever been in. And it is only going to get messier. The best he may be able to do is to bring us through without the country's imploding. And that will take some doing.

[TerryTheTerrorist]

Who's got options for sale? I'll take them.

[Ermasdaughter]

I'm sorry but you've not done your homework. Obama, while compassionate and all other other 'flowery' adjectives used to describe him, is also quite ruthless. And I like that about him....

Look into how he got his senate seat in Chi town ... it's a ruthless tale of Chicago politics - not for the faint of heart. It's also an amazing example of the lengths he will go to achieve his goals.

There's a growing list of people who have been discounting him from the time he was a community organizer.­.. I suspect you'll be joining that list soon....

[jugganaut]

Look, nobody on this earth has a crystal ball. Obama may very well bomb in a few months.

But it is glaringly apparent TODAY that the US AND the world need a huge injection of CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW.

And it's also crystal clear TODAY that electing McCain will not supply that needed shot of confidence that may just be the difference between this looming crisis being an 8-count that the US will be able to recover from, or a knockout.

Obama's election will supply it. McCain's won't.

Let's just go on what we know right now, okay? One day at a time.

[MsCanadian]

Well said! Thank you jugganaut!

[Matt7]

That works for me!