Obama Stock Is Overpriced; Sell, Sell
Sell Obamas now. They are overpriced and the forward market has gone crazy. If he becomes president in two days, the bubble will burst, I guess in the spring of next year.
From the moment four years ago when I first heard of Barack Obama and read his youthful memoir, I sensed a president in the making. Like the young Nelson Mandela in South Africa, he seemed to hold the aura of incipient national leadership. His range of sympathies, his oratory, his intelligence, his energy marked him out from the run. His embodiment of the American dream was astonishing.
Today the outside world, much of it with a direct and painful interest in American policy, wants Obama to win, by leads of 20 to 60 per cent. These people have no vote. But the narrower electorate of the United States appears also to want Obama to win, albeit by a smaller margin. The world prefers him chiefly because he is black, the latter chiefly because he is not Republican.
Neither reason is robust. To most non-Americans, black is still code for being apart from the American establishment. Any visitor these days to Europe, to Africa or to the muslim world is shocked by the depth of antipathy to America. It is beyond ideology, a visceral, often racial aversion, unrelated to any personal attachment to individual Americans or their much-envied way of life. The ugly American is reborn.
Yet the same visitor is impressed by how often he is assured that an Obama presidency would "change everything". The reason is not that Obama is anti-war or pro-Palestinian or left or right wing. It is that his origins render him the one thing he most vociferously denies, not an ordinary American.
To this world, Obama is a supposed representative of an oppressed class, however much his speech, manner and career bespeak the opposite. He is black and his name is confirmation enough. He symbolises the end of the wasp ascendancy. The reason why his candidacy still discomforts many Americans is the reason the world craves it, that Obama is somehow unreal. He is a meta-American. It is why there will be an awful unleashing of grief and fury if he is not elected.
Yet Obama is real, not just a human being but a politician. In office he knows he must do more than make fine speeches and castigate the government of the day. He must grapple with the wreckage of a world economy whose collapse is in large part due to the mismanagement of American finance, from which as a senator he cannot altogether escape blame.
He must restore credit to markets and confidence to commerce. He must bring health and welfare to a country whose poor will seem ever more "third world" as unemployment bites in the coming months. To millions of Americans he will seem as a messiah. There are millions whom he can only disappoint.
Abroad, this leader would have to end not one war but two, and bring sanity to an American diplomacy that is chaotic in an arc of instability from eastern Europe to the Himalayas. The anticipation that he will be a harbinger of peace, friendship and economic salvation is probably greater than for any American since Roosevelt. The burden of expectation is awesome and unrealistic.
The qualities of charisma and rhetoric that Obama brings to this task might be a match for it. His declared policies are not. His desire to disengage from Iraq is not appreciably different from that of the Bush administration and the Iraqi government. On the other hand, his clearly expressed wish to beef up the war in Afghanistan is reckless.
Obama has approved the bombing of targets inside Pakistan (and presumably now Syria) and proposed invasion to "secure" that country's nuclear arsenal. He has backtracked on compromise with Iran and done nothing to suggest an end to the macho provocation of Russia.
At home Obama would appear from his statements and voting records to be a conventional Democrat, essentially tax, spend and protect with tariffs. While some of this is America's business, the world economy needs a protectionist America like a bullet in the head. American markets open to world goods are vital for recovery, as is America's active participation in the easing of world trade. Obama has shown no sign of accepting this.
On all these fronts there is a more alarming prospect. It is that a Democratic president, even with an overwhelmingly Democratic congress, must beware of seeming soft or dovish or "appeasing terror". Such is politics that the more liberal the man the more illiberal he can feel compelled to behave, as was the case with Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. Obama has yet to indicate a retreat from the patriot acts or the language of George Bush's war on terror.
Any modern leader parrots the language of change. Obama proclaims himself the embodiment of a revolution in American public life. Yet his record is anything but radical. He even supports the right to bear arms. Were it not for his colour, he would be a candidate running on a conventional Democratic ticket, with few policies more constructive than those of his opponent, John McCain, on how America might now escape from its many predicaments.
None of this is an argument for not voting for Obama. In present-day Washington even modest competence might seem revolutionary. But democratic leadership is like Icarus. Its wings melt as soon as it flies close to the sun. Obama is flying close indeed.
The instant message that an Obama victory would flash round the world is not in doubt. It would transform and refresh America's image, exhilarating its friends everywhere. It would restore to that country the reins of global leadership so missing in the era of Republican xenophobia. It would be an utterly good thing.
The next message could be very different. The skills that Obama has brought to his campaign are essentially personal and organisational, not the superhuman ones that will be required of any occupant of the White House in the immediate future. The higher the anticipation, the more crippling will be the effort needed to meet it, and the greater the fall if it is not met.
The prospect of a failed Obama presidency sometime in 2009/10, whether by his doing or those of circumstance, is heartbreaking to contemplate. It would more than undo the gains secured by his election and devastate the cause he is seen as representing. The least his supporters can do is not raise the bar of expectation too high.
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"In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope. In one week, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need.....In one week, we can choose hope over fear, unity over division, the promise of change over the power of the status quo. In one week, we can come together as one nation, and one people, and once more choose our better history. That’s what’s at stake. That’s what we’re fighting for." Obama Closing argument Speech - Oct 28th 2008
http://politicaladattacks.blogspot.com/
My how iconoclastic. Such a rebellious idea...
A failed Obama presidency before it even happens.
Yawn...
Make me a two way price Mr. Jenkins.
I'll gladly cross that bridge... WHEN WE GET TO IT.
Zbigneiw Bzrezinski's two sons run the foreign policy advisorships in both Obama's and McCain's camp.
Goldman Sachs bundled contributions 3:1, Obama/McCain.
Its good to cover your odds.
House wins.
The people will stand behind him, he will make mistakes, all people do, but they will pale in contrast to what we have been through for the last eight years. Obama/Biden
Most Americans aren't fools. It took W eight years to disgrace the country and disrupt the world economy. Nobody expects Obama to rebuild in eight days or even eight months, and he has never said he could work miracles.
Obama has been straight with Americans, so different from Bush's and McCain's wishful thinking.
It will take time and it will take willingness of Americans to end the Bush culture that says that Greed is good. Obama has the best advisors, but in the end recovering will depend on everyone's contributing.
You know you might want to wait 4 years or so before you start disecting the Obama presidency....we have given W 8 long years to screw this country, in every way imaginable....we should at least give Obama the decency of having a little faith, it's the least we could do, since we put our nation in the uncapable hands of George W. Bush, twice.
Agreed.
This is such a shallow and uninspired piece. The world wants an Obama presidency because he is Black? He's going to be soft on terror? 7 years of being tough on terror have not removed the specter of terror from our world, not one bit. We defeated Nazism and the Japanese empire in 4 years so what is the excuse of the Republicans? We need a differed tack. We need it now.
The Republicans have been tough on terror? Someone forgot to tell Bin Laden.
The World does not prefer Obama because he is black.
The world prefers Obama because he is simply the smartest candidate that has probably ever ran for president of the USA or at least in my time,which is for the last 30 years.
The world prefers Obama because his people skills are second to none ever to have sat in that office.
The world prefers barack because,he is genuinely empathetic.
The world prefers Him because he is simply a genuine human being,with morals and intergrity.
EXACTLY! In no way do I believe the majority of US citizens voting for Obama are voting for him due to his color. I find it shortsighted and demeaning to even infer this, let alone state it emphatically. The first time I heard him speak, in 2000, I knew he was destined to become POTUS one day. And I'd never heard of him, did not know he was black or white or purple. I was busy cooking and just heard his words come through the TV. It was his integrity, his calm demeanor, his spirit of fairness and compassion and leadership qualities that shined through.
The world doesn't know the man that well, in fact very few of us do. That's not to say he isn't any of those things, but seriously, you're gagging with all that treacle you're spewing. The man is a politician, not a saint, not whatever godhead you'd like to insert here. He's been "inspiring" on rhetoric that there is no way he can match. Some realism would be good here. Or you're in for some deep deep disappointment. It took the repubs and the media 8 years to finally figure that about the last guy, do yourself a favor and open your eyes now. Prepare to not be a sheep, to ask questions and to hold whoever wins accountable to what a rational person can expect of a head of state.
Expectations are unrealistic, Obamas policies only seem so fantastic due to the current neoconvervative policies which have grow the wealth gap and alienated the USA, but...
Obama has show himself to be a great leader. He surrounds himself with talent, listens to people and he inspires.
While it would seem unrealastic to expect so much of one man, fix the economy, fix the society, mend the broken bridges, I think you underestimate the abilities of Obama the Manager.
The man has shown how he surrounds himself and listens to very capabale people, the way he has run his campaign has been fantastic. I do not doubt for a minute he will surround himself with very capable people once in office and with good advice will do what needs to be done to fix the economy. I have great confidence in this mans ability to manage.
Due to the mans inspirational message I would expect society to undergo significant changes again just by virure that Obama is president. His message is one of hope and that itself as history has proven time and time again is one powerful message if you can get people to listen and believe it as they have.
Again an Obama presidency just by its very existance will mend many broken bridges. The neoconservative message of hate and fear, their greed and blindness when it comes to issues of global importantce such as global warming will be gone.
...a tad-bit of Windex for your lens might help your perspective begin to ascend...
hmm...perspective...
Wouldn't it be terrifying if President Obama was repeatedly told about imminent threats against the nation, and he simply dismissed them out-of-hand? And what if the US was attacked, and he just sat in a classroom, reading a kids' book, because he didn't know what to do?
Wouldn't it be just awful if President Obama started ignoring the Constitution, and declared himself unaccountable to anyone? And what if he started cranking out "signing statements", began pardoning people who were instrumental in outing a covert CIA agent, or allowed White House emails to be deleted in complete defiance of the law?
Wouldn't it be an incredible outrage if President Obama insisted on tax subsidies for corporations making record profits, or tax incentives for companies that outsourced American jobs?
Wouldn't YOU find it totally unacceptable if President Obama did any of the above?
Well, I'm sure YOU would - and I have no doubt that if President Obama even thinks about doing any of the aforementioned, we will be hearing from ALL OF YOU immediately.
That's because real Americans don't bow their heads and accept such behavior without speaking up, despite being called anti-American, terrorist-loving appeasers, non-patriots and socialist freaks.
Despite your abject silence over the last eight years, I am sure you will suddenly find your voices again, at-the-ready to decry any affront to your rights, freedoms, and your liberty as citizens.
What a pity it will be eight years too late.
...I may not have been clear in suggesting the blogger wipe off his lens or have misinterpreted your response to my comment---I am just following up to say I support Barack Obama in this election...
Are all you Brits such sourpusses? You are dooming Obama to failure even before he has been elected. Pragmatic voters such as myself know that Obama is not going restore America overnight. It's going to take years of hard work. If you have read his books you know that Obama is not going to be a rebellious left winger or a messiah. He's largely a centrist who builds coalitions and works problems from a pragmatic point of view, instead of my way or the highway.
America just needs a gentle yet firm pointing in the right direction. I believe Barack Obama can give us that.
So do I.
You're putting a lot on the shoulders of one man. Apparently, the American acceptance of mediocrity in their politicians has left many people filled with doubt about whether this country can still reinvent itself and achieve greatness. What makes Obama unique is not just that he has already achieved a great deal as an African-American, (1st Black Harvard Law Review, etc.) but that he is aware that those achievements could not have taken place anywhere else in the world. I identify with Obama because I too, have children who have spent years in the shadow of 911 and the Bush Doctrine. Children in whom I have to instill some sense of motivation. To strive. To achieve more than I or my generation even dreamed. Obama does not make claims that "he" will move mountains. He says that together, "We" can move mountains. When we hear this, we know it to be true and we respond. I, like many others, are prepared to do what it takes to put our country back on track. Prepared to lead by example so our children will get a sense of where the bar is and hopefully, one day, surpass it. That is why he will be the 44th president of the United States.
Three things about a President:
He/she be smart
He/she has good people around them
He/she gives a sh*t.
Game. Set. match.
I agree, with the recent posts, you cannot expect Obama to fix eight years of problems we are given in four years. It can be done witht he effort and will of the people. Obama has set the goals the American people must try to reach them. This is not a job for one person.
Obama says he will fix everything and he will have no excuses. Time for him to keep his promises. Remember, you cannot question Obama policy on this site or ask the question on how we will pay for these programs. If you think a 3% tax increase to the top earners will pay for all the ambitous social welfare programs, you are really in the dark.
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