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Fiscal Affairs: The Buffett Rule Is a Good Idea

Posted: 04/16/2012 9:23 am

Some high income Americans pay a lot of tax; others do not. If you have right tax advice and if most of your income can be structured as some form of "capital gains," your marginal rate -- what you pay on the your last dollar of income -- may be very low. The highest marginal income tax rate currently is 35 percent, while long-term (over a year) capital gains are taxed at 15 percent at most.

The Buffett Rule is a proposal to establish a minimum tax rate for "millionaires" -- people earning more than $1 million per year -- and the Senate is likely to vote on a version this week. The exact amount of revenue that this would bring in depends on the details, but there is no question that it is small relative to the country's need to control the federal budget. (The Joint Committee on Taxation scored one version of this proposal as generating about $30 billion over 10 years; the annual budget deficit will remain over $1 trillion in the near term even under the most optimistic projections.)

The biggest sticking point for any reasonable strategy to control the U.S. federal budget is that one side -- the Republicans -- steadfastly refuse to raise taxes, at all and on anyone.

There are three ways forward. Either the Republicans begin to compromise -- and agree to raise taxes as part of a comprehensive deficit reduction and debt control strategy, just as Ronald Reagan did. There is a great deal of confusion about whether Reagan raised taxes after first cutting them; see chapter 3 of White House Burning for the details of what actually happened.

Or the Republicans who have signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge will prevail -- no one's taxes will go up and, most likely, some people's taxes will go down. In this case, either the deficit will continue to grow (which is what Newt Gingrich is proposing) or Medicare and almost everything else the federal government does will be scrapped (which is the position represented by Paul Ryan). My guess is that, in this scenario, we will say farewell to any meaningful form of social insurance -- good luck getting healthcare when you are 85 (unless you earned over a million dollars a year for many years).

Or the Republicans will lose big -- and fiscal consolidation can proceed without them.

A complete loss of support for the Republicans seems unlikely -- they will surely hold more than 40 seats in the Senate for the foreseeable future.

So the fiscal trajectory of the country -- and whether Social Security and Medicare survive -- depends very much on whether the Republicans will compromise on taxes.

The Buffett Rule is a tiny tax, of little consequence to the people who would pay it or to the country as a whole. The idea that $30 billion of additional revenue would tip the balance in any way is simply ludicrous.

But this is precisely what gives the Buffett Rule its powerful symbolism.

Much of federal government public finance is complex and hard for people to comprehend -- demystifying deficits and debt is a major reason we wrote White House Burning. Some of the reaction to our book is encouraging, particularly from people who are willing to spend some time with the details.

But the question behind the Buffett Rule is crystal clear and does not require you to buy a book or even read the newspaper. Should all high income Americans pay a moderate level of tax?

Simon Johnson is the co-author of White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters To You, available from April 3rd. This post is cross-posted from The Baseline Scenario.

 
 
 

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10:28 AM on 04/18/2012
The Buffett Rule should have been passed as a matter of basic fairness. The revenue would have also helped. $40 to $50 billion is useful but it alone would not balance the budget. Republicans claim that if Dems raise revenue they will just spend more. Dems point to the Ryan budget which cuts spending and then neutralizes the effect on the deficit by cutting taxes. The bottom line is that we need to cut spending and raise taxes to reduce the deficit. A good start is to let the temporary Bush tax cuts expire, for all of us. That requires no action from our do nothing Congress.
02:29 PM on 04/17/2012
Here is my idea for how the Buffett Rule could be good for the Tea Party goals.

BUFFETT (Buffett Uber Fair Flat Everybody Taxed 30%) Tax has 3 parts:

1. Classical Buffett Tax - 30% on all income over 1 million dollars.
2. Buff Tax - 30% on hot sexy buff (but poor) celebrities and posers not eligible to be POTUS.
3.(All You can eat) Buffet Tax - 30% for everybody else, even those on SSI/SSD and corporations (since corporations are people too).

Thus the Democrats can increase spending while the Tea Party Republicans (who represent taxpayers) can recruit more voters and in a few years reduce both the debt, the spending, and eventually the 30% rate (in all 3 parts) to 20%, thus letting all tax payers (including secretaries AND Romney) pay as little/much as Obama and Buffett paid on 2011 income. With no special rates for investment income or deductions, the only way to make this tax more fair would be to make it a per capita tax.
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gateking
09:48 AM on 04/17/2012
An unfortunate downside to enactment of the Buffet rule, would be a common belief that action was taken. It is a rounding error in the debt struggle.

Taxes need to rise and expenses need to be reduced. Everyone will be impacted.
01:28 AM on 04/17/2012
How about cutting spending as a symbol?
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Sheldon archer
Facebook name is Yuyun Archer
12:27 AM on 04/17/2012
If it's a good rule, one can understand why the Republicans would fight it.
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tinarm
call me a proud FemaNazi according to Rush.
09:15 AM on 04/17/2012
I just don't get it, their excuse for not passing it is it doesn't do enough, yea, well it does something. If I had the attitude of the republicans I would just toss my change out the window while I was driving home and not put it in a jar to use later for something I want.
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Matt Norman
12:07 AM on 04/17/2012
It is a complete waste of time since it would only bring in around $47billion over 10 years. Our deficit for 2012 is over 1 trillion dollars.

Paul Ryan's plan would raise taxes on these people more. In fact an additional 6% more.
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ralph asef
03:43 AM on 04/17/2012
You are funny.
09:15 AM on 04/17/2012
Raising taxes is not simply a question of the direct impact on revenue. Over the last 40 years, as we've seen taxes on high income individuals drop, we've seen executive pay skyrocket; manufacturing all but disappear, & middle class wages stagnate. When taxes on the rich were higher, they were more likely to reinvest in their businesses - to avaoid the tax hit - this coupled with more protectionist trade policies meant jobs actually were created here. This is why Howard Hughes had more than 100 businesses when he died. This is why we had a strong middle class able to contribute more to tax revenue. We now have a situation where high income individuals are able to hide income by calling it capital gains - look at the compensation of most CEO's and you'll see that their salary tends to be a fraction of their annual compensation. When you can be paid millions and only be taxed 15%, why not have outrageously, outsized compensation packages? More wealth means more power, which means a greater ability to manipulate the system to insure more wealth and power - to the detriment of everyone else. Which is why 400 families own more wealth that 155 million other families combined & why the top 1% now own more than 70% of all finacial assets. This is an untenable situation - we are a nation, a society, & we do better when no one is given an unfair advantage to garner power.
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Matt Norman
12:32 PM on 04/17/2012
I agree with most of the first part of your response, but again the Buffet rule does absolutely nothing at all. So if that is so why is it being done. The Buffet rule does NOTHING except I guess make people feel better inside that someone else is having money taken away from them. It is completely emotional.

It is not hiding income, it is investing capital that they have already been taxed on. Capital gains have already been taxed at the corporate level. Taxes are already taken out of dividends at a rate of whatever that corporation paid so lets say 22%. Now they are hitting it again at 15% on the individual.

How are you treated unfairly compared to Mark Zuckerberg? Of the Billions of dollars that Mark has did he take that from someone else, or did he actually create that capital that was never there to begin with? In other words without Mark Zuckerberg everyone that has benefited financially from Facebook would not have.
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Paros
11:23 PM on 04/16/2012
I cannot help but wonder why Obama did not select Simon Johnson for a key economic position.
Must like Elizabeth Warren, we need Simon in Washington now.
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Heartlight3
Every act is an act of self-definition.
11:13 PM on 04/16/2012
I keep hearing Republicans saying that Democrats refuse to cut any spending, but I don't get it. What happened to all those spending cuts that were negotiated last summer when the debt ceiling discussions were going on? If no spending is being cut, why are all those public sector jobs being eliminated? Or are they just saying that despite the actual spending cuts because Republicans like to lie?
01:31 AM on 04/17/2012
Federal employment is the highest it's been in at least 10 years
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ralph asef
03:45 AM on 04/17/2012
Really. just another fantastic lie.
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tinarm
call me a proud FemaNazi according to Rush.
09:17 AM on 04/17/2012
Wow you really are confused aren't you. We have 273,000 less government employees at this moment under President Obama than we had under W. That's a fact, you can google it. It's easy.
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gateking
09:52 AM on 04/17/2012
Those "cuts" aren't even scheduled to begin in earnest until next year. We've cut some tiny number like $ 37 billion this year. Those scheduled cuts, of course, are not binding on a future congress. They may alter the composition, reduce them or eliminate them.
10:25 PM on 04/16/2012
There is one little problem about taxing more - the money will again be thrown down a dry hole - just like Obama has done with millions for renewal energy - spent - companies going bankrupt and no result - the problem is not the money - it is how it is being spent. Individuals know better what to do with capital than this bunch.
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ralph asef
03:50 AM on 04/17/2012
Are you investor? I guess " this bunch" is true give away as your objective view.

Do you know what percentages of a new business survive more than a year?
04:19 PM on 04/18/2012
"We dedicated more than $18 billion to developing clean and efficient technologies like biofuels, advanced batteries and hydrogen fuel cells, solar and wind power, and clean, safe nuclear power. We're providing more than $40 billion in loan guarantees to put these technologies to use." - George W. Bush, 2009, on the success of the Energy Policy Act of 2005.

While Obama actually approved the Solyndra loan, the Bush administration laid the foundation it and supported the funding of next generation renewable energy projects.

I agree that the government is inefficient at using tax dollars wisely, but I do hope that you're not excluding Republicans from this judgment.

source:
http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2009/01/20090106-4.html
09:13 PM on 04/16/2012
Just what the GSA needs, more money for wild parties.
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ralph asef
03:51 AM on 04/17/2012
Yawn. BORING.
kmichal2000
just netflix Burzynski
07:56 PM on 04/16/2012
Like everything Obama proposes this is a pointless law.
Will not help an average person a bit.
I get that Obama who is worth 10.5 million doesn't really think about this but how about cutting spending?
09:14 PM on 04/16/2012
Why should Obama worry about cutting spending? You can work a little harder.
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ralph asef
03:55 AM on 04/17/2012
But a bit of fairness is overdue. Obama's of support for millionaire tax, despite of his income is so refreshing.
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gateking
09:53 AM on 04/17/2012
Lol. A former president has virtually unlimited income prospects and BO knew the chance of the Buffet rule passing wasn't low, it was precisely zero.
10:55 AM on 04/17/2012
Only because he KNOWS it will not pass. It was the most cynical of gimmicks.
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Bayard Waterbury
social philosopher
07:37 PM on 04/16/2012
Simon, you're the man!! Sure, the Buffet rule makes sense, considering the incredibly wide gap between the few haves and the huge number of havenots, regarding both income and wealth. This country is in deep trouble. Oh, I know that the current national debt vs. GDP is still in the acceptable range (i.e. about 70%). But, Buffet rule aside, unless we get serious about real tax reform, that is substantially limiting or eliminating the vast loopholes for both corporations and individuals, meaning doing away with about 90% of the 16,000 page US Tax Code, that ratio is going nowhere but toward Greece and Spain, et al. The only time our debt profile has been higher was immediately after WWII, and we modified the highest brackets to resemble the current profile for the northern European countries (we were above 90% top rate for nearly 30 years). The amazing thing is, that if we dropped the rate for everyone, corps and all, to 15% and instituted a VAT or national sales tax, we could get back in balance easily.
10:26 PM on 04/16/2012
Please stop the non-sense of the haves and have nots - how about this - all democrat need to be paying 90 percent of their income because the spending they are doing - makes more sense than this.
01:33 AM on 04/17/2012
Seed of a great idea: different programs and tax rates for dems
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tinarm
call me a proud FemaNazi according to Rush.
09:19 AM on 04/17/2012
How did you feel about George when he was doing all that spending? Where you willing to toss your 90% into that barrel? You do realize we are paying interest on all those millions, billions, and trillions, your guy spent. Right, you get that right?
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Mark Dobbins
I may be dumb but I'm not that dumb
06:51 PM on 04/16/2012
The 3 billion/year that this would generate would have covered about 12 hours of the deficit spending for March. So what do you do next?

Better symbolism might have been for the President to push the recommendations of HIS very own Erskine Bowles Commission. Instead, he has let that work gather dust while our deficit careens out of control.
01:34 AM on 04/17/2012
They could seize all the assets of everyone. That might pay for a few more months.
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ralph asef
04:01 AM on 04/17/2012
You sound like the Republicans were embracing tax increase that were part of their plan.

Do you remember debt limit fiasco? It takes to tango. Where are Republicans?
05:46 PM on 04/16/2012
This seems similar to the Alternative Minimum tax already in place, except that this would affect millionaires and not the middle/upper middle classes currently affected by AMT. The purpose of this tax is to penalize those with certain high deductions (i.e. state income taxes). If we can set minimums for the middle class, why can't we set them for the upper class?
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
05:04 PM on 04/16/2012
The Buffett Rule Explained

If regardless of tax breaks the ultra-rich pay 30% on their income, they have no incentive to push for tax cuts or to dismantle our social welfare system. If the Buffett rule passes they will pay 30% no matter what.

The Buffett Rule means Repubs have nothing to offer the ultra-rich, meaning they've lost their funding. That is why extending the Bush tax cuts for the rich and defeating the Buffett Rule is do-or-die for Repubs. If the Buffett Rule passes there was no advantage to the rich to having Repubs control the House, so they won't contribute to them anymore. Either Repubs block the Buffet Rule or the party is defunded.
apiazza
There is no such thing as a fiscal conservative.
06:21 PM on 04/16/2012
Wow...we have found the Democratic magic bullet. Similar to Republicans trying to dismantle unions.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:37 AM on 04/17/2012
But Repubs just blocked it. Like I said Repubs realize they have to stop it, even if it costs them some elections. It's brilliant strategy, by Obama or whoever came up with the idea. I doubt it was Warren :-)
10:29 PM on 04/16/2012
That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard - you give any person an opportunity to do better and the money invested that makes more gets spread around better than Obama's throwing money at renewable energy - so far most have gone bankrupt - what good did that do?
01:35 AM on 04/17/2012
Jobs jobs jobs at a million a piece
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:18 AM on 04/17/2012
What's the difference between the government investing in alternative energy versus letting "any person" invest it?  Here's a clue: one of the five Waltons heirs invest $1B in First Solar, and made over $2B on it. But you're a lot smarter and would never invest in solar, right?

Solyndra failed because solar prices fell so far Solyndra's technology could not compete. Solar is now $1 a watt, and is cheaper than retail electricity in southern CA. Prices are dropping in half every 7 years, a decade from now solar electricity will be the cheapest source, cheaper than coal.

Bush inherited a balanced budget. He cut taxes for the rich, started two wars, signed Medicare Part D, and left Obama a $1T deficit and a Depression. The US lost 800,000 jobs Bush's last month in office, the most in history. What good did "that" do?

Supply-side is a failure, demand creates growth not investments. The US has too much capital relative to demand, that's why 10-year bonds yield 2%. Corporations are sitting on $1T in cash, so are investors. It's called "pushing on a string", trying to inject capital into a system where there is no demand. Interest rates are 0% but nobody will borrow and grow their business until consumers have money.

And most money is debt, not investment. Bush cut taxes for the rich by $300B a year, government borrows exactly that much extra back from them, sells them T-bills. The tax cut is sucked backed up, no net increase in investment capital, but the rich now have $300B more that we owe them every year. 20% of taxes is now to service the debt, and growing. The rich living off taxpayers, it's called a "rentier" society.

I know you won't read it, because of course you are smarter than the Nobel Prize committee:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/07/opinion/krugman-here-comes-solar-energy.html