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Simon Johnson

Simon Johnson

Posted: February 18, 2010 09:20 AM

Greece Should Approach the IMF

What's Your Reaction:

European Union pressure is growing for Greece to "do the right thing" -- which means, to the EU's leaders, a massive and sudden cut in the Greek budget deficit. Greece, without doubt, has gotten itself into a fine mess; still, it is now time for the Greek government to push back more effectively.

Fuming at EU arrogance will accomplish nothing. And, while global investment banks may have helped hide the evidence, it seems unlikely they actually designed the great blunder of eurozone admission (and broken Greek promises). It's time to stop blaming others and get crafty.

Greece should open a semi-official channel to the IMF and talk discretely about taking out a loan.

This is not an anti-Greek suggestion. The IMF has changed a great deal over the past 10 years -- learning lessons and developing new ways of thinking. (For more detail, see my current Project Syndicate column.) Today's IMF would give Greece a much more reasonable deal than would the EU acting alone.

But the main reason to approach the IMF is that this, if done properly, would drive the EU nuts in a most productive manner.

The Germans really do not want more IMF pressure to ease up on European Central Bank monetary policy or -- heaven forbid -- to engage in some fiscal expansion (or other increase in domestic demand). The Germans want to export their way out of recession, and the devil take the hindmost.

And President Sarkozy absolutely does not want the current IMF Managing Director -- Dominique Strauss-Kahn -- to do anything that can be presented as a statesman-like contribution to the world. Strauss-Kahn is a contender for the French presidential election in 2012, so you can see how that works. (Aside: strictly speaking, according to IMF rules, Strauss-Kahn should step down from the Fund; but he is too wily a politician to let anyone push him out at this moment.)

By approaching the IMF, Greece will get a better deal from the European Union. Our baseline view is still that the IMF's role will be only "technical", but behind the scenes the prospect of greater IMF engagement (and even a standby loan) is a powerful card that Greece should threaten to play.

Crossposted with the Baseline Scenario.

 
 
 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Shane Nahumko
Let them eat iPads!
01:32 PM on 02/19/2010
Actually I agree with Mr. Johnson, the IMF route, if kept in a minor 'backup' role, seems the least bad solution. A default would have too destabilizing an effect on the EU and the world economy, while a German bailout would be the worst answer possible as it simply reinforces the moral hazard that has been created over the past couple years. Of course, if the Greeks can get their financial house in order on their own, more power to them, but I'm afraid their track record over the past decade leaves more than a little to be desired - http://theendisalwaysnear.blogspot.com/2010/02/whos-afraid-of-big-bad-wolf.html
Bladernr1001
Vote Libertarian
12:47 PM on 02/21/2010
Bailouts by the IMF will only delay the inevitable....you cannot repeal the laws of economics.
09:02 AM on 02/19/2010
Ahhh...

The Tried and Tested "Divide and Conquer" ruse that Americans have always used to such effect in the past, Mr. Johnson? The American Elite never wanted the European nations to get together -- they are so much more easy to manipulate when divided. Fortunately, the people have recognized this and know that any "friendly advice" offered by Americans always has their own benefit in mind. The Greeks will work with their European colleagues and they'll sort out this mess themselves. BTW -- maybe the USA should approach the IMF for a bridge loan, too? Oh, I forgot -- they just need to have the Fed print more funny money. I guess that works... until it stops working. Enjoy your "recovery" until then, my friend.
07:43 AM on 02/19/2010
Greece to approach IMF and let the EU off the hook? No way. This is an EU and Euro issue and we have known about it for years. It seems that the EU grew on the backs of their smaller countries and now when they are in trouble they want to abandon them, neglecting that the larger and responsible counties have different types of economies.

We need the bankers in Euro zone and every country to disclose if other countries did that same thing with off balance sheet, so called assets and debts since the EU seems to so quickly smear and abandon Greece for behavior that other countries in the EU have likely mimicked.

It is amazing that the EU is so thin skinned and frankley criminal in what they are suggesting.
06:20 AM on 02/19/2010
The IMF is just a way to push neocon economic policies on the rest of the world. They haven't worked here and they won't work for Greece. Everyone knew Greece was fudging their numbers to barely meet the requirements to join the Euro and now are paying the price. If I were Germany, I would be pushing for a way to boot them from the Euro if they don't get their act together within ten years. But Greece has had issues from the get-go. IMF funds never come without strings and Greece would be trading away any sovereignty they have left. I'm not sure letting corporate thugs run the country is the best way out of this mess. It's like taking out that second mortgage or juggling credit cards by using balance transfers from one to another to stave off paying the piper. Sure the credit is easy, but it costs a lot in the long run.

Still, there has been little traction on preventing the sort of risky behavior on the part of the banking industry that has caused this mess and that is disappointing to say the least. The whole notion of corporate personhood needs to be abolished and the people who caused this mess need to be held accountable.
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jabailo
(Participant) Texeme.Construct()
03:32 AM on 02/19/2010
This is everything that conservative Brits, Franks and Germans feared about the E.U. having to bail out its weaker components.

At some point, the whole E.U. notion may become challenged by the stronger European economies (what few of them there are).
02:54 AM on 02/19/2010
OH MY GOD!!!!!

The absolutely LAST THING Greece should do is approach the IMF. It should cut its ties with the World Bank too.

Look at the nations that DID go to the IMF and what happened:

- Russia: Went from 2 Million und communism to 74 million in poverty in ten years.
- Chile: The IMF made the people that got rid of the torturers pay the debts the torturerers and massmurderers had accumulated. - The people had to pay - WITH MASSIVE INTEREST - for the tools they were tortured with
- South Africe: They were made to give all monetary control and the national banks over to the very people they wanted to get rid of AND give them all the land they had stolen under Apartheid
- South East Asia: When London and Wall street destroyed their economies the IMF told those ruined nations that they had to sell all national assets and resources to those who destroyed them for a pittance if they wanted help
- ...............

The list is endles. But what happens is the same thing all over: if the IMF is asked for help a firesale follows that makes Wall Street and London soar and throws the nation right back into the stone age.
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jinxed
starting over at 60
02:27 AM on 02/19/2010
And the IMF is such a benevolent organization, NOT! If Greece goes to the IMF they will be gambling that the IMF will treat them fairly when IMF's philosophy has always been slash and burn and make the country dismantle and sell its infrastructure, abolish social safety nets and increase poverty. If I were Greece, I would not trust the IMF any further than I could pick them up and throw them.
01:23 AM on 02/19/2010
America should learn from Greece. Think not, then you are under the spell of the American Dreamweavers.
07:46 AM on 02/19/2010
Silly. The Americans dealt with this and their economies are recovering. They did this by bailing out the system, something that the EU does not want to do. This will cause Euro zone to double dip. This is an after shock to the original crash last year and the EU did not, as usual do the hard actions that the US did. They are now paying the price and are BEHIND the curve. Again.
12:20 AM on 02/19/2010
Greece should NOT approach the IMF.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realitytrumpsbull
Two 'alves of coconut!
12:02 AM on 02/19/2010
I disagree with the IMF/lending thing. Deficit spending and the resulting debt is an albatross around the necks of a lot of countries, ours included. I don't care what the eggheads at MIT think on this, because they've been the recipients of govt. largesse for years, and probably wouldn't know how to function without it. What I'd like to know is what the citizens of the country of Greece have to say about their government chronically overspending their country's budget, and more largely, what financial experts have to say about GS and how it is they seem to be so heavily involved in a lot of countries' finances. From what I've read, Goldman Sachs sounds like a prime candidate for antitrust actions, hopefully the EU will treat GS like another Bill Gates, and sue the pants off em. At the root of the problem is a lot of paper speculation. When countries like Greece cleave off from high-finance speculation shenanigans, they'll be back on surer footing, and out of hot water with other countries, to whom they're now probably turning to pull their chestnuts out of the fire. I'd say the whole problem largely started on Wall St., which should give people in this country pause as to how they do business and whom they invest with, and what those investment instruments actually represent, and what they might actually be worth.
Bladernr1001
Vote Libertarian
11:56 PM on 02/18/2010
This is the European cradle to grave entitlement system going down in flames. This is just the beginning.
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da nas
08:58 PM on 02/18/2010
This is just like GOP politicians blasting Obama for the stimulus and then taking credit for it back home. Bobby Jindal signed his name to checks as though the money were coming from him! Meanwhile Louisiana and Alabama and Mississippi take in gov't money by the heap, as New York and other states bail them out. Greece doesn't get a dime from Germany, but because they share the same currency, they pay German prices for goods (mainly produced in Germany). This is exactly like Alabamans paying Manhattan prices for housing and food simply because they share dollar with NY.
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da nas
08:57 PM on 02/18/2010
Wow, I don't read the Huffington Post often but who would think it's so filled with knee jerk reactionaries??!!

There's nothing here about the Euro being a German fiefdom to sell their goods, a place where Germans increase their competitiveness and care not a whit that other countries can't devalue their currency to create new jobs and bump up exports. Instead, Germany fronts the money so they can buy German goods.

There's also nothing here on the fact that even if Greece did everything perfectly, they would still be in this mess, because Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland are, to a slightly smaller degree.

There's a lot here on the genetic incapabilitiy of Greeks to work hard and make something of their country, but nothing here on the genetics that caused German bankers to mess with credit default swaps that has left the German gov't badly exposed to a Greek default. But I guess maybe the genetically defective Greeks are running German banks these days.

There's no irony here from Germans whose country was a shambles after WW2, and who received a ton of money mainly from the USA to rebuild. But I guess Greece committed a bigger sin, screwing up their budget, than murdering millions. So, Germans giving moral lessons about rectitude to Greece--really ironic given the way Germany flattened the country and killed 15% of the population.
09:23 PM on 02/18/2010
As the article says, the leader of the IMF was a favorite French politician. He's a socialist. I think you're overacting.
Bladernr1001
Vote Libertarian
12:16 AM on 02/19/2010
Morality has nothing to do with it....

It is simply the cold hard realities of the laws of economics.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
NABNYC
08:19 PM on 02/18/2010
Or perhaps not. Naomi Klein writes at great length in her book The Shock Doctrine about the Trojan Horse role the IMF has played around the world with other countries who had financial problems. Like the friendly neighborhood pusher. First they go in and offer free samples -- easy money. Then comes the hook: turn their entire economy over to the direction of the IMF, eliminate all social service programs, get rid of public education, water, sewage, waste disposal, healthcare, pensions, throw their own people into deep poverty but above all else keep the international money people happy.

Here's the thing. A small group of people have stolen most of the money in the world, and through a series of fraudulent schemes they have bankrupt the rest of us. They're sitting offshore with their bundles of money waiting to come back in to "rescue" us -- in exchange for complete power. Pretty soon there will be a small group of secret hedge and private equity fund billionaires who own and run everything in the world, and the entire concept of a "democracy" will be meaningless, since no government anywhere will have any power. That's why we need to indict, prosecute, seize assets, and throw into prison every person who has played a role in the fraudulent financial schemes over the last 10 years. It's the only hope.
12:51 AM on 02/19/2010
I have a question.
If all this happened under democracy, why would anyone want to rescue it form extinction?
Surely what is needed is a system that would prevent a recurrence?
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jinxed
starting over at 60
02:37 AM on 02/19/2010
The "free market" is anything BUT free!
08:04 PM on 02/18/2010
Greece's choices are bailout from the IMF or bailout from Germany. Everyone assumes the IMF will be harder on them, but I'm not sure. The IMF is able to give loans now without attaching strict austerity measures as a condition, since the Asian financial crisis was so poorly handled. Germany doesn't really have the money to bailout Greece and they have Spain to worry about too and their voters at home to be accountable to. An IMF bailout would much less political. I think it would be better.